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Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Preparations began for plebiscite on Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL), while attacks and clashes continued between military and Islamic State (ISIS)-linked militant groups and communist New People’s Army. At ceremonial signing of BOL 6 Aug, President Duterte said he hoped it will “finally end decades of conflict that is rooted in the Bangsamoro’s right to self-determination and recognition of their unique identity”. Referendum to ratify BOL expected to take place between Nov and Jan 2019. Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) chief negotiator Mohagher Iqbal 10 Aug reported group had begun decommissioning MILF firearms, with second phase to take place after plebiscite and appointment of Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA), interim govt until first Bangsamoro elections. MILF 21 Aug selected its Chairman Murad Ebrahim as interim chief minister of BTA. Electoral commission 22 Aug said preparations on track for referendum, as efforts began to encourage residents to register to vote and inform them on BOL content. Govt and MILF 9 Aug agreed to cooperate on rehabilitation of Marawi City, heavily damaged during five-month siege in 2017. Clashes between military and ISIS-linked Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Front (BIFF) rebel group continued in Mindanao; included two suspected militants killed carrying bomb in M’lang, North Cotabato province 8 Aug; and seven suspected militants killed in clash in Maguindanao province 20 Aug; clashes between rival BIFF factions reportedly displaced scores in Shariff Saydona Mustapha town late month. Homemade bomb exploded during festival in Isulan town, Sultan Kudarat province 28 Aug, killing three and injuring dozens; military blamed BIFF, ISIS claimed responsibility. Clashes also continued with ISIS-linked Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG): security forces killed ASG commander in Patikul town, Sulu, 15 Aug; 22 soldiers wounded and one ASG fighter killed in Patikul 23 Aug. ASG suspected of kidnapping ten-year-old son of official in Jolo mid-month. Unidentified gunmen killed six people and abducted pro-govt militia leader and his wife in Siriwai, Zamboanga del Norte province, 31 Aug. With peace talks suspended, military also continued to clash with communist New People’s Army, including seven rebels reported killed in clash in Antique (centre) 15 Aug; several soldiers also killed in clashes, including three in Masbate (centre) 3 Aug.

Asia

Philippines

President Duterte 26 July signed Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL) which creates Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), implementing 2014 peace agreement between govt and Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) which ended 40-year conflict in Mindanao region. Senate and House earlier ratified BOL after bicameral conference committee approved final version 18 July. Bill provides for self-rule of entity, home to estimated five million Muslims, by 2022. BARMM to have more powers and cover bigger area than entity that it replaces: will have 80-member regional parliament which will select chief minister to head govt; will keep 75% of locally collected taxes and receive govt funds; manage natural resources; and incorporate Islamic law into regional justice system for cases exclusively involving Muslims. Central govt to retain control over police and military, MILF to lay down arms in phased approach and decommission its fighters, which leaders say number 30,000-40,000. First local elections to be held 2022; before then, Duterte will appoint 80-member Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA). Martial law to remain in place in Mindanao until end of 2018 so that security forces can tackle Islamic State (ISIS)-linked groups. MILF leadership satisfied with BOL, which they said would help win back splinter rebel groups and make them less susceptible to ISIS-linked foreign groups. Regional referendum needed to ratify BOL anticipated for Oct; MILF began efforts to build support for BOL, including consultation at main MILF camp in Maguindanao province 29 July reportedly attended by tens of thousands of MILF members. MILF leaders visited national military HQ in Manila 12 July. Military retook town taken by ISIS-linked Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) in Maguindanao 4 July; military reported twelve BIFF killed in clashes in Maguindanao province 8 July. Army reported one soldier, five paramilitary troopers and four civilians killed by vehicle suicide bomb at checkpoint on southern island Basilan 31 July; ISIS claimed responsibility. Duterte 27 July offered to open talks with Abu Sayyaf rebel group; presidential spokesman said his remarks were calling for surrender. Amid stepped-up military offensive against communist New People’s Army in north late month, Duterte 26 July said he hoped govt and communist rebels would return to negotiating table.

Asia

Philippines

Ahead of bicameral conference committee hearings (scheduled 9-15 July) to reconcile differences between House and Senate versions of Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL), for Duterte to sign it into law 23 July, concerns remained over difficulties in finding agreement over significant differences between the two versions, including inter alia on banning of political dynasties, extent of regional powers and tax collection. At conference on BBL 6 June, Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) continued to voice concerns about House and Senate versions of BBL, which omit provisions contained in version submitted mid-2017 by Bangsamoro Transition Commission (BTC, chaired by MILF). Presidential Peace Adviser Jesus Dureza said stakeholders need to manage expectations and recognise need to comply with constitutional parameters. Duterte 17 June said Moros should give govt more time if BBL fails to pass in July; also said national govt would not seek to claim untapped oil reserves in Maguindanao, estimated at $1bn. Communist National Democratic Front (NDF) rebel Political Adviser José María Sison released statement 28 June saying his movement was abandoning talks with Duterte govt, said it would prepare to resume negotiations under a new administration. Peace talks had been scheduled to resume in Norway late June, before govt decided mid-June to postpone for three months, citing need to allow for public consultations on draft agreements. Duterte spokesman 21 June confirmed govt had suspended all backchannel talks with NDF. Hostilities continued between military and communist New People’s Army (NPA) forces, including in Mindanao and northern Luzon. Army troops 25 June killed six policemen, wounded nine, in “friendly fire” incident on Samar Island; police were hunting communist guerrillas at time of incident. Military clashed with Islamic State (ISIS)-linked Maute Group fighters in Lanao del Sur province mid-June, in operation targeting Abu Dar, who govt believes to be new “emir” of ISIS in South East Asia; 19 June reported it had destroyed Maute Group camp in Tubaran, near Marawi City; more than 11,000 people reportedly displaced by fighting, at least five suspected fighters reported killed. Govt 22 June raised bounty on Abu Dar to $112,600. Military assault on ISIS-linked Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) bomb factory in Liguasan, Maguindanao, 10 June resulted in fifteen suspected BIFF militants killed; thousands of families displaced.

Asia

Philippines

Lower house of Congress 30 May and Senate 31 May passed Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) bill, which paves way for creation of self-governing Bangsamoro region in southern Philippines, in accordance with 2014 peace agreement between govt and Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). President Duterte 29 May certified BBL bill as urgent, meaning both House and Senate could approve their versions of bill before Congress adjourns 1 June. Bill now set to go to bicameral conference committee during recess to reconcile House and Senate versions of bill, before being sent back for both houses to ratify 23 July in time for Duterte to sign ahead of his state of the nation address. MILF peace panel chair, Mohagher Iqbal, 30 May said he hoped reconciled BBL would be faithful to peace agreement. MILF filed complaint with govt peace panel after police in Mindanao shot dead nine MILF members during operation as part of Duterte’s war on drugs 25 May. Duterte late month said he had agreed to resumption of peace talks with Communist rebels, but that they had to take place in Philippines, not Norway. Representatives of govt and Communists reported they had agreed in back-channel talks early May on interim ceasefire, amnesty for political prisoners and rural development reform. Netherlands-based leader José Marìa Sison reported sides had agreed to sign interim peace agreement in late June for resumption of formal talks. Late-month clash between New People’s Army (NPA) and military saw three rebels killed in Mindanao. Authorities arrested NPA leader Elizalde Cañete 12 May. On one-year anniversary of start of five-month Islamic State (ISIS) siege of Marawi city in Mindanao, anger continued over govt approach to reconstruction and inability of many residents to return – Red Cross reported some 230,000 remain displaced. Military 25 May rejected calls to lift martial law in region. Several killed in continuing clashes between military and Abu Sayyaf group in southern Basilan and Sulu provinces.

Asia

Philippines

Efforts continued to pass Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) by 1 June – when second regular session of Congress adjourns – for president to sign into law.  BBL will establish new Bangsamoro Region with wider autonomy to replace Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) to implement 2014 peace agreement. Joint committee of House of Representatives 16 April approved BBL version endorsed by President Duterte and submitted by Bangsamoro Transition Commission. MILF secretariat Chair Mohammad Ameen 3 April said MILF will not disarm up to 9,000 former fighters as scheduled in May unless congress passes BBL. Fifteen suspected ISIS-linked militants reported killed in clashes with military in southern Philippines mid-April; military reported several civilians killed in attacks by ISIS-linked militants. Duterte 4 April announced intention to resume peace talks with Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), National Democratic Front (NDF) and New People’s Army (NPA) insurgency, after calling off talks Nov 2017; said rebels must first agree to ceasefire. Ministry of defence and military said insurgents must also stop extortion and abandon plan to join a coalition govt. Duterte 21 April said he had set 60-day timeframe for revived talks, urging Netherlands-based leader Jose Maria Sison to join talks. Security forces reported at least four NPA killed in clashes in Camarines Sur province 8 and 10 April; several suspected NPA rebels killed in clashes in Mindanao 21 April; 24 April reported they had captured NPA leader and two followers following clash in Massim, southern Mindanao.  Two injured by bomb outside church in Koronadal, Mindanao 29 April; authorities blamed Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF). Suspected Abu Sayyaf militants 28 April beheaded two Christian farmers in Maguindanao.

Asia

Philippines

As Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) warned of growing frustration in Mindanao due to delay in passage of Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL), needed to implement March 2014 Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro and set up regional govt, senate and House leaders 13 March told President Duterte they hope to pass BBL by 30 May. Presidential adviser to peace process Jesus Dureza reported President Duterte, in Davao City 27 March, assured MILF leaders of his support for BBL and willingness to exercise “administrative directives” should congress fail to pass it. Military early March reported that surviving Islamic State (ISIS)-linked militants from 2017 Marawi city siege were regrouping and setting up new base in southern Philippines. Officials also reported that ISIS had appointed new emir in South East Asia, “Abu Dar” from Lanao del Sur. Army 11 March reported at least 44 suspected members of ISIS-linked Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters killed in clash in southern Maguindanao 8-9 March. In western Mindanao operations continued against ISIS-linked Abu Sayyaf group, still believed to number several hundred despite some 200 surrenders since start of year. Duterte 26 March said surrendered Abu Sayyaf should receive same reintegration assistance as those from Communist Party of the Philippines’ (CPP) armed wing New People’s Army (NPA). Senior Abu Sayyaf member Nurhassan Jamiri reportedly surrendered to authorities in Basilan province 28 March. Media reported that govt has filed petition to declare more than 600 alleged members of CPP and NPA “terrorists”. Dureza 29 March said govt remains open to reviving peace talks with CPP provided there is an “enabling environment”, after CPP leader said group wanted to resume negotiations and over 60 legislators called for renewed talks. Civilians displaced by fighting in Marawi protested 18 March against construction of military camp and military abuses, urged govt to end martial law. Govt 16 March informed UN secretary-general of its decision to withdraw from International Criminal Court.

Asia

Philippines

Senate completed its consultations on Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) while House of Representatives scheduled public hearings in Mindanao from 1-16 March; legislators hope BBL will be ready for voting before Congress goes on recess 24 March. BBL supporters asked legislators to approve a version of BBL that reflects 2014 peace agreements. Deputy Presidential Peace Adviser Nabil Tan 23 Feb reiterated that passage of BBL will provide current regional govt in Mindanao much-needed boost to prepare for when national govt shifts to federal system. Congress also continued to tackle planned shift from presidential to federal system of govt; President Duterte 25 Jan appointed top magistrates, lawyers, academics and former officials to consultative body on charter change, including Randolph Parcasio, lawyer of Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) and founding chairman Nur Misuari. Rehabilitation of Marawi city following 2017 siege continued to face challenges, with local NGOs and ethnic Maranao Muslim traditional leaders opposed to govt’s plan to construct second military camp near main battle area. Marawi residents called on govt to pay them reparation for destroyed properties and allow them to rebuild their own homes. Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) Chairman Al-Haj Murad Ebrahim 20 Feb warned that ISIS-linked terrorists (including foreign nationals), with guns and cash looted from Marawi, could seize cities like Iligan and Cotabato; said MILF was battling pro-ISIS groups for influence in schools, and repeated his plea for govt to approve BBL immediately. Police 16 Feb arrested Fehmi Lassqued, Egyptian believed to be ISIS recruiter. Six Abu Sayyaf members killed in clash with govt troops in Basilan 24 Feb; authorities arrested Juromee Dongon, widow of slain Malaysian terrorist Zulkifli Bin Hir alias Marwan, during raid in Tubod, Lanao Del Norte 25 Feb. Military 25 Feb overran Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters camp in North Cotabato.

Asia

Philippines

Special committees in both upper and lower chambers of Congress continued deliberations on Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) drafted by Bangsamoro Transition Commission (BTC), which aims to create new autonomous government in southern Philippines in line with the signed peace agreements. Senate BBL sub-committee visited Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) administrative office in Sultan Kudarat and conducted public hearings in Cotabato City and Marawi City 25-26 Jan. House of Representatives sub-committee 31 Jan conducted first public hearing ahead of Feb visit to Mindanao. President Duterte 12 Jan assured BBL will be passed before charter change and shift to federal system of govt; Congress’ target is March 2018. However, Duterte 27 Jan expressed that BBL’s constitutional issues can be resolved under a federalism arrangement; observers fear prospects for a BBL consistent with Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB) are dim. Series of attacks by Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) that started 25 Dec forced hundreds of indigenous people Maguindanao to flee their homes. Authorities blamed BIFF for IED on national highway in Shariff Aguak, Maguindanao 14 Jan. Six soldiers injured 20 Jan in clash with suspected Maute gunmen in Masiu town, Lanao Del Sur. MILF and Moro National Liberation Front 6 Jan organised Biwang Bangsamoro Unified Coordinating Council, joint action group opposed to Islamic State (ISIS)-inspired groups reportedly operating in central Mindanao. Military 19 Jan verified reports that Malaysian Amin Baco, son-in-law of late ISIS emir Isnilon Hapilon, still alive and hiding in Patikul, Sulu, under protection of Abu Sayyaf leader Hatib Hajan Sawadjaan. Spanish national accused of being Abu Sayyaf sympathiser was arrested Basilan 20 Jan. Police 23 Jan reported some 2,000 families fled Datu Saudi Ampatuan, Maguindanao after two MILF commanders fought over overlapping land claims. Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, Singapore and Thailand 25 Jan launched intelligence-sharing initiative “Our Eyes” to respond to ISIS and cross-border security threats.

Asia

Philippines

Legislators from lower chamber of Congress and committees on Local Government, Peace, Reconciliation and Unity and Muslim Affairs 5 Dec agreed to organise sub-committee to consolidate Bangsamoro Transition Commission’s version of Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) with three other bills on Bangsamoro autonomy. Consolidated draft will be discussed in series of public hearings in select provinces in Mindanao scheduled in Feb. Senate 20 Dec conducted its first session on BBL, to continue early 2018. President Duterte 19 Dec said BBL unlikely to surmount constitutional barriers. Congress 13 Dec overwhelmingly approved Duterte’s request to extend martial law in Mindanao until 31 Dec 2018, citing need to eradicate Islamic State (ISIS)-influenced and local terrorist groups as well as Communist Party of the Philippines-New Peoples’ Army (NPA). Authorities remain on high alert for possible lone-wolf style attacks in Mindanao, and reports that remnants of Maute group and other extremists now aggressively recruiting new fighters. Military 17 Dec recruited 300 fighters from indigenous peoples (IP) groups as part of militia against NPA. UN-appointed experts on Internally Displaced Persons and IPs, local NGOs and opposition lawmakers raised concerns that martial law will lead to human rights violations by state forces. Military operations 21-23 Dec in North Cotabato killed eleven members of ISIS-inspired Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) faction under Esmael Abdulmalik alias Abu Toraife; govt tagged Toraife as former militant leader Isnilon Hapilon’s possible successor. Another BIFF faction 27 Dec killed chieftain from indigenous Teduray tribe as retaliation for military’s 25 Dec airstrikes that killed at least ten BIFF fighters in Maguindanao. NPA southern Mindanao 26 Dec said ready to face Duterte’s “full-scale-war” in 2018. Tropical storm Tembin (local name Vinta) 22-24 Dec unleashed landslides and flash floods in Mindanao that left over 200 dead and over 138,000 displaced. Govt 27 Dec turned over first batch of 500 transitional homes to Marawi residents that lived in main area of battle; Marawi mayor said around 19,000 individuals have returned to their homes after military clearing operations.

Asia

Philippines

Senate president 6 Nov filed Senate Bill 1608, a version of Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) different from that drafted by Bangsamoro Transition Commission (BTC). Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) panel chair Mohagher Iqbal described senate bill as “between a CAB [Comprehensive Agreement on Bangsamoro]-compliant BBL and the current Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao law”. BTC, with support from MILF and Moro National Liberation Front Chairman Yusoph Jikiri, conducted Bangsamoro Assembly in Sultan Kudarat, Maguindanao 27 Nov; President Duterte pledged to address historical injustices suffered by the Bangsamoro and suggested special session in Congress to discuss BBL and other proposals. Despite Oct retaking of Marawi City and death of militant leaders including Isnilon Hapilon, authorities remained on high alert for possible attacks. Six soldiers killed 8 Nov in clash with Abu Sayyaf militants in Sumisip town, but MILF said it was a “misencounter” between soldiers and MILF fighters. Amid concerns about recruitment by remaining Islamic State (ISIS)-influenced groups, police 10 Nov arrested three Abu Sayyaf members suspected of planning to attack mid-Nov ASEAN summit in Manila. Police 6 Nov declared top Malaysian terrorist Sabahan Mohammad Amin Baco has succeeded Hapilon as ISIS regional leader, however military said Baco was killed during Marawi siege. Military 15 Nov launched airstrikes and ground operations against ISIS-linked Toraife faction of Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) in Datu Unsay and Shariff Aguak. Airstrikes in both Maguindanao and North Cotabato provinces forced some 5,000 to flee. Amnesty International report 17 Nov said widespread rights abuses and war crimes committed by both Maute fighters and govt forces during Marawi siege. President Duterte 23 Nov signed proclamation ending peace talks with Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), National Democratic Front (NDF) and New People’s Army (NPA), which broke down in May, and called NPA a terrorist group; Duterte next day asked for rebels who were freed earlier in year when talks restarted to surrender. Military 28 Nov killed fourteen NPA rebels in Batangas, follow-up to 20 Nov operation that seized NPA base.

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