CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Asia

Philippines

President Duterte 17 Oct announced liberation of Marawi City from Islamic State (ISIS)-influenced Abu Sayyaf and Maute Group, following five-month military campaign. Military confirmed it had killed Abu Sayyaf/ISIS regional leader Isnilon Hapilon, Omar Maute, and Mahmud Ahmad, Malaysian who facilitated transfer of funds from ISIS central to Marawi City; govt arrested alleged ISIS recruiter Karen Aizha Hamidon, widow of militant alleged to have staged Sept 2016 Davao City bombing. As of 29 Oct, 920 extremists, 165 govt forces and at least 45 civilians reported killed in conflict. Moro group Suara Bangsamoro 22 Oct said govt responsible for death, displacement and disruption in Marawi, called for probe into alleged human rights violations by military. Govt task force for Marawi reconstruction 27 Oct working on post-conflict assessment; govt initially estimated at least 50 billion pesos ($971 million) needed for city’s recovery. Military on high alert for possible retaliatory attacks from remaining members of Abu Sayyaf and Maute groups. Bangsamoro Transition Commission’s version of Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL), currently with congressional committees for deliberation, is expected to face opponents in congress. Congressman Celso Lobregat 4 Oct warned BBL might create Bangsamoro “superstate” in Mindanao that will receive more rights and resources than other regions, and said govt’s federalism agenda needs to be tackled first. Moro Islamic Liberation Front Chairman Al Haj Murad Ebrahim 23 Oct reiterated that BBL is crucial in fight against ISIS, with delays in peace process used to foster radicalism. Duterte 29 Oct asked congress to expedite passage of BBL or else there will be “trouble”. Govt negotiator Silvestre Bello 12 Oct said peace negotiations with Communist Party of the Philippines, National Democratic Front and New People’s Army (NPA) remained alive, govt waiting on Duterte’s instructions. Police 19 Oct arrested two high-ranking NPA officials, Aurora Cayon (Lilay) and Louie Antonio Martinez (Louie Castro) in Negros Occidental, and eighteen NPA rebels 23 Oct surrendered to govt forces in Sultan Kudarat province.

Asia

Philippines

Military made gains in battle over Marawi City with Islamic State (ISIS)-linked militants from Abu Sayyaf and Maute Group, clearing three militant strongholds including historic Bato Mosque 16 Sept and rescuing five hostages. Military 18 Sept confirmed it had killed three Maute brothers; Omar Maute and Abu Sayyaf/ISIS regional leader Isnilon Hapilon still alive. As of 24 Sept, at least 879 people, including 680 militants and 152 government forces, killed since May, 40-60 hostages remain. Defence minister 25 Sept reported militants’ funds for Marawi operation came partly from ISIS HQ and partly from drugs trade. Govt 15 Sept reported foreign funding for govt reconstruction plan for Marawi has reached around $40mn. Defence minister 27 Sept said govt plans to conduct “post conflict needs assessment” after city has been cleared of militants. Marawi bishop announced that Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) offered to provide security to Christian groups who assist displaced. Duterte 8 Sept said no resumption of peace talks with Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), National Democratic Front (NDF) and New People’s Army (NPA), which broke down in May, without a ceasefire; clashes continued as soldiers 20 Sept killed nine NPA rebels in Nueva Ecija. Duterte 20 Sept agreed to certify as “urgent” the stalled Bangsamoro Transition Commission version of Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL), after discussing BBL’s status in congress with MILF earlier in month. Duterte also met Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) chair Nur Misuari in Davao 16 Sept; Misuari reiterated MNLF’s support for nationwide federalism and offer of help in campaign against extremism in Mindanao. House majority leader 29 Sept confirmed that BBL has been filed as House Bill 6475 and referred to Committees on Local Government, Muslim Affairs and Peace, Reconciliation and Unity for deliberations.

Asia

Philippines

Battle in Lanao del Sur region’s Marawi City between govt troops and Islamic State (ISIS)-linked militants continued into fourth month. Govt tallied displaced from Marawi and surrounding provinces at 600,000; govt efforts continue to prepare for rebuilding city once fighting has ended. Military 28 Aug intercepted ten armed men who tried to enter Marawi, killing five; govt preparing for final push as military cornered remaining Maute fighters including Abu Sayyaf-Basilan leader Isnilon Hapilon; Madie Maute reportedly killed while trying to escape. Mayors in Lanao del Sur 12 Aug signed manifesto declaring war against Maute group, prompting concerns over potential clashes between Maute clans and other Maranao families. Security forces on high alert after death of Maute patriarch Cayamora Maute 27 Aug in govt custody; military continue operations in Basilan against Hapilon’s followers. Fighting broke out between MILF and faction of Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) aligned with ISIS early Aug in part of Maguindanao province: at least 25 people killed including five MILF. President Duterte 30 Aug announced possible meeting with Indonesian president and Malaysian PM on international terrorism. Office of the president 14 Aug forwarded Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) to House of Representatives and Senate, however BBL has no sponsors and was not included in the initial list of 28 priority bills approved by govt. Former president and district representative Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo 3 Aug filed alternative Bangsamoro enabling law, “Basic Act for the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region” (BABAR), containing elements previously condemned by Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) due to proposed Bangsamoro region less autonomous than current arrangement; MILF described BABAR as “disgusting in all aspects”. Duterte 2 Aug maintained his decision to cancel peace talks with Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), National Democratic Front (NDF) and New People’s Army (NPA); govt official 3 Aug said signed formal notice of termination of peace talks with communists is forthcoming.

Asia

Philippines

Ongoing battle in Marawi City between govt troops and Islamic State (ISIS)-linked militants from Abu Sayyaf and Maute Group, which began 23 May, reported to have claimed 630 casualties (mostly militants) and, as of 20 July, 466,000 displaced. Military 28 July estimated 60 extremists remain, limited to two barangays (districts) in Marawi City. Surviving military described fighters as “well-equipped” and employing fighting style seen in Iraq. Police 5 July arrested Monaliza “Monay” Romato, niece of Maute matriarch and suspected financier and logistics supporter of ISIS-linked militants. Jakarta-based Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict 21 July reported ISIS has funnelled money and recruits to help local militants seize territory. Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) Chairman Al Haj Murad Ebrahim 18 July refused any talks with Maute group. Local Muslim leader 17 July alleged that Marawi City siege co-leader Abdullah Maute is still alive, Abu Sayyaf leader Isnilon Hapilon escaped Marawi end-May. Congress 22 July agreed to extend martial law in Mindanao until end 2017. Suspected Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters 29 July fired on helicopter carrying Maguindanao governor, who was left unscathed. President Duterte 19 July again cancelled peace talks with Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), National Democratic Front (NDF) and New People’s Army (NPA), which had been set to resume in Aug, after members of Presidential Security Group were wounded in encounter with NPA in North Cotabato. Duterte 21 July declared he would order offensive against NPA after Marawi Battle is won. Firefights between govt forces and NPA raged in provinces of Negros Oriental, Sorsogon, Pangasinan, Agusan Del Sur following breakdown of talks. Bangsamoro Transition Commission 17 July submitted first draft of Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) to president. Institute for Autonomy and Governance based in Cotabato said delays in BBL’s passage a driver for extremist recruitment.

Asia

Philippines

Battle which began 23 May in Marawi City between govt troops and Islamic State (ISIS)-linked militants from Abu Sayyaf and Maute Group continued: as of 30 June death toll stood at 429, including 44 civilians, 82 govt troops and 303 militants; 349,000 displaced. Military 23 June reported 40 foreign terrorists in country including Indonesians, Malaysians, Saudi Arabians and Yemenis, warned more may come. Malaysian Mahmud Ahmad, who channelled funds for siege, and group leader Omar Maute, reportedly killed early June; govt 28 June still verifying reports that Abu Sayyaf leader Isnilon Hapilon escaped Marawi City. Military 27 June reported attackers had forced their civilian hostages to loot, men to fight govt forces and women to serve as sex slaves. Following breakdown of peace talks between govt and communists in May after martial law declaration, National Democratic Front (NDFP) 17 June recommended New People’s Army (NPA) refrain from attacking govt forces and help fight ISIS-linked militants in Marawi. Govt 18 June declared it will not undertake offensive operations against NPA, but only in Mindanao. Progress in Bangsamoro peace process as Bangsamoro Transition Commission (BTC) 16 June approved and signed Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL), which it said reflected concerns from indigenous people, Christian communities, traditional leaders, women and youth, and unimplemented provisions of MNLF’s previous peace agreements. BTC will submit new draft BBL 10 July to Duterte, who promised its passage in Congress. Military 23 June said it believes Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) have tactical alliance with Maute Group; defence minister earlier reported 40 militants from BIFF and Ansar Al-Khilafah Philippines joined Maute terrorists in Marawi. Philippines-hosted security meeting with Indonesia and Malaysia 22 June, agreed to prevent extremists from setting up base in region, address root causes of terrorism; countries earlier launched joint naval patrols to prevent movement of terrorists. U.S., Australia and China provided support to govt in dealing with Marawi crisis, including U.S. intelligence-sharing from drones, Australian surveillance planes, $16mn of weapons/ammunition from China, $920,000 humanitarian aid from Australia, $300,000 from China for rehabilitating Marawi.

Asia

Philippines

President Duterte 23 May declared martial law in Mindanao after some 100 Abu Sayyaf and Maute Group militants took over large parts of Marawi City, capturing Christians, destroying buildings and freeing prisoners. Islamic State (ISIS) claimed responsibility for attack, which followed attempted raid on hideout of ISIS-linked Abu Sayyaf sub-leader Isnilon Hapilon. Over 170,000 individuals forced to flee Marawi fighting as military fought to retake city using aerial strikes; authorities 30 May reported 89 militants, 21 govt forces and nineteen civilians killed in fighting. Duterte said martial law could be extended to entire country if needed. Earlier, air and ground assaults in Maguindanao’s Datu Salibo town 5-11 May reportedly killed 31 Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) members and forced some 24,000 residents to flee. Twenty suspected militants killed in anti-Abu Sayyaf raid in Basilan 11 May. Military 9 May reported at least eight foreign terrorists operating in Lanao Del Sur, including from Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore. Abu Sayyaf 25 May ambushed soldiers in Patikul, Sulu, killing one. Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) 25 May ordered New People’s Army (NPA) carry out tactical offensives nationwide and recruit more fighters in response to Duterte’s proclamation of martial law, leading to breakdown of fifth round of peace talks between govt and CPP-NPA-National Democratic Front, scheduled for 27 May-1 June in the Netherlands. Bangsamoro Transition Commission 15-25 May conducted consultations across Mindanao to finalise draft basic law to submit to president’s office first week of June for review. Bangsamoro Coordination Forum including Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) members met in Saudi Arabia 7-8 May, agreed that any attempt by Philippines Congress to draft a basic law not compliant with 2014 Comprehensive Agreement on Bangsamoro would be unacceptable. Court 21 May granted MNLF leader Nur Misuari liberty from being served arrest warrants for six months, enabling his free movement and participation in negotiations. Misuari 30 May pledged 5,000 MNLF fighters to assist govt in Marawi; MILF agreed to set up humanitarian corridor for civilians.

Asia

Philippines

Military 11 April launched operation against around a dozen militants in central resort island Bohol, suspected of planning to kidnap tourists and launch attack on ASEAN summit; five suspected militants including leading Abu Sayyaf figure Muamar Askali reported killed, plus three soldiers and a policeman. Militants reportedly suspected of belonging to at least three groups that had pledged allegiance to Islamic State (ISIS), including Abu Sayyaf. President Duterte 19 April offered reward for capture of escaped militants, threatened to invade Abu Sayyaf stronghold in Jolo island, Sulu. Military 23 April reported it had killed three Abu Sayyaf militants in Bohol, still pursuing two or three. Over ten Abu Sayyaf reported killed and 32 soldiers wounded in attempt to free Vietnamese hostages in Talipao town 2 April. Abu Sayyaf beheaded fisherman and soldier in Sulu province during month. Military 22-25 April killed 36 suspected ISIS-linked rebels, including from Maute group and Indonesian group Jemaah Islamiyah, in Lanao del Sur, reported capture of main base; reportedly killed leading Abu Sayyaf militant and kidnapper in Sulu 28 April. Duterte 2 April announced peace talks with Moro National Liberation Front under Nur Misuari may start in May; Misuari’s six-month temporary liberty granted by court ended 27 April. Peace negotiations between govt and Communist Party of the Philippines/New People’s Army/National Democratic Front, which collapsed in Feb, resumed in Netherlands 2 April despite absence of bilateral ceasefire; 5 April agreed on temporary joint ceasefire and to release prisoners. Duterte 3 April threatened “full power of the state” if conditions set out in March are not respected and talks fail. Mohainmen Abo (brother of senior Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) figure and chair of Bangsamoro Transition Commission Ghadzali Jaafar) killed 11 April during police raid in Barangay Linangcob. Police claimed Abo was resisting arrest and firing at police officers; Jaafar denied, said police had not respected coordination mechanism contained in 1997 ceasefire agreement. MILF 17 April urged govt to investigate alleged unilateral police operations against rebels. Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters suspected of several bombs in Sultan Kudarat and North Cotabato, including in Tacurong City 17 April injuring at least eight.

Asia

Philippines

Following informal Norwegian-mediated talks in the Netherlands, govt and Communist Party of the Philippines-New People’s Army-National Democratic Front (CPP-NPA-NDF) 11 March agreed to restore ceasefires and resume peace talks suspended early Feb. President Duterte 19 March affirmed conditions for talks, set for 2-6 April; NPA must agree to bilateral ceasefire, stop demanding army leave areas they claim, release police and military hostages and stop collecting “revolutionary taxes”. Violence continued, including four police and one soldier killed by NPA 8 March in Davao del Sur; eight rebels and two soldiers reported killed in 30 March clash in Quezon province. NDF 31 March said they would not restore unilateral ceasefire by end-month as previously planned, following govt refusal to reciprocate. Expanded Bangsamoro Transition Commission, which includes Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) representatives and other Mindanao stakeholders, 6 March held first plenary session in Cotabato to revise Bangsamoro Basic Law, make it more inclusive. Govt and MILF 21 March signed Terms of Reference for implementing panels for Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro and extended mandate for International Monitoring Team. Military reported 21 Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) killed in clashes with security forces in Maguindanao 13-16 March, said BIFF were sheltering foreign terrorists; BIFF denied claims. Clashes between military and Abu Sayyaf group continued; military 1 March reportedly killed five believed responsible for late Feb killing of German hostage. Duterte 9 March urged Muslim area mayors to help fight Abu Sayyaf, threatened to impose martial law if they did not. Police 21 March said Islamic State (ISIS)-linked Maute Group were present in capital region Metro Manila, claimed interception of IED intended for terrorist attack in Quezon City; army said it had not detected presence of group in capital.

Asia

Philippines

President Duterte 4 Feb announced govt withdrawal from peace talks with Communist Party of the Philippines-New People’s Army-National Democratic Front (CPP-NPA-NDF) insurgents, resumed since Aug 2016 with Norwegian facilitation. Move came amid increased clashes and as govt refused communist demand to released 400 imprisoned insurgents. Communist insurgents 1 Feb declared end to ceasefire and reportedly killed three unarmed soldiers; govt 3 Feb lifted its unilateral ceasefire. Senior military officer 26 Feb reported at least fourteen rebels killed in clashes following ceasefire collapse; seven govt soldiers also reported killed. Communists called for continuation of talks, 19 Feb offered to free six POWs; presidential palace 20 Feb listed ceasefire conditions communists needed to meet before Duterte would reopen talks, including, inter alia, end to extortion and ambushes on military personnel. Duterte early Feb named expanded 21-member Bangsamoro Transition Commission (BTC) to draft new enabling law for proposed Bangsamoro Autonomous Region, agreed in March 2014 Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro; BTC includes eleven MILF figures. Presidential adviser on peace process Jesus Dureza also said Bangsamoro Basic Law drafted under Aquino govt could be basis for new law; BTC, officially launched in Davao City 24 Feb, must submit draft to Congress by July. Defence Minister Delfin Lorenzana 9 Feb said links between IS and Philippines militants “very strong”; senior military office 26 Feb said some 50 IS cells operating in Mindanao. Several Abu Sayyaf fighters reported killed in ongoing operations during month; Abu Sayyaf attacks and bombings also continued. FM Perfecto Yasay said Abu Sayyaf likely behind 19 Feb attack on Vietnamese cargo ship near Baguan island in which one crew member killed. Govt reported Abu Sayyaf beheaded German hostage in Sulu 26 Feb after ransom deadline lapsed.

Asia

Philippines

Security operations continued against militant groups pledging allegiance to Islamic State (IS). Defence minister 26 Jan reported intelligence showing that Isnilon Hapilon, leader of Abu Sayyaf group and reported IS emir for South East Asia, was moving on IS instructions to southern Lanao del Sur province to expand IS presence, unify extremist groups. Military 29 Jan reported fifteen militants killed, Hapilon seriously injured in airstrikes, Lanao del Sur. Security forces early Jan moved against IS-allied Ansar Al-Khilafah Philippines (AKP) in Sarangani province, reportedly killing leader Mohammad Jaafar Maguid 6 Jan. Police arrested Abu Sayyaf sub-leader Faizal Jaafar in Zamboanga City 27 Jan. President Duterte 27 Jan told MILF and MNLF to deny sanctuary to IS-linked militants, or face military incursions into their territory. Three children killed in bomb in Al-Barka, Basilan 29 Jan; officials blamed Abu Sayyaf. Malaysia 23 Jan reported four arrested linked to Mindanao IS cell. Defence Minister Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein said speedy peace process in S Philippines needed to avoid IS militants leaving Syria and Iraq regrouping there. Presidential peace adviser Jesus Dureza 6 Jan said govt considering constitutional amendments to accommodate adjustments to new Bangsamoro autonomy enabling law. Govt, Communist Party of the Philippines/New People’s Army/National Democratic Front (CPP/NPA/NDF) peace talks continued in Rome. Following Russian weapons offer, Duterte 7 Jan visited Russian anti-submarine vessel docked in Manila, asked Russia to be ally and protector. (See also South China Sea).

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