Senior officials continue to voice support for talks with rebel Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) despite stalling of dialogue process following failed Ramadan Peace Initiative; said 4th round of talks will take place mid-Oct. BRN submitted formal demands to Thai authorities early Sept via dialogue facilitator Malaysia. 2 separate factions of Patani United Liberation Organisation (PULO) and Barisan Islam Pembebasan Patani (Islamic Liberation Front of Pattani, BIPP) reportedly conveyed to BRN desire to join process. Cabinet 18 Sept approved extension of emergency decree in 3 southernmost provinces for 3 months; 33rd extension since decree invoked in 2005. Insurgent attacks included 11 Sept ambush in Thung Yang Daeng District, Pattani Province, killing 5 police; bomb planted by school in Yala’s Muang District 10 Sept killed 2 soldiers; gunmen killed 3 rangers in 12 Sept attack in Yarang District, Pattani. Attacks reflect insurgency’s shift to focus on security forces in recent months. Opposition lawmakers repeatedly disrupted proceedings in parliament in vain effort to derail consideration of Pheu Thai Party (PTP)-sponsored draft charter amendment bill to restore all-elected senate. PM Yingluck launched political reform forum 25 Aug, aimed at promoting prospects for reconciliation; Democrat Party members and People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) boycotted meeting. Continued protests by rubber farmers in mid-South demanding higher govt subsidies since late August.

Future of peace dialogue process between Barisan Revolsui Nasional (BRN) and govt uncertain after BRN 6 Aug issued video announcing suspension of its participation because Bangkok had not responded to its demands. Govt officials repeatedly stated intention to continue dialogue, though senior military officers oppose BRN’s demands. Violence intensified 1 Aug with 12 arson attacks across Pattani, Songkhla and Yala provinces, while separate bombings killed ranger in Yala Province and injured another in Narathiwat. On 2 Aug, eight soldiers injured, 2 severely, by a bomb explosion in Yala’s Raman District 2 Aug. Another soldier killed in IED attack in Yala same day. Bomb attack in Tak Bai, Narathiwat, injured 4 soldiers 3 Aug. 4 gunmen killed imam at Pattani Central Mosque, supporter of peace dialogue, 5 Aug. IED attacks spiked to 35 between 31 July-7 Aug; monthly average was 24 for first half 2013. In spite of continuing violence during ceasefire period, Internal Security Operations Command reported this year’s Ramadan saw lowest number of casualties for holy month since 2007, with 23 people killed in the 3 southernmost provinces 10 July-18 Aug. Video clip posted online 28 July purportedly al-Qaeda death threat against former PM Thaksin for 2004 Tak Bai massacre; National Security Council chief dismissed video as stunt by Thaksin’s political opponents. Early Aug anti-govt rallies aimed at derailing Parliament’s consideration of amnesty bill fell flat; bill, introduced by governing Pheu Thai Party to provide amnesty for crimes associated with political turmoil since 2006, passed first reading 7 Aug; opposition Democrat Party has vowed to contest legislation in parliament, petition Constitutional Court and keep up pressure on streets. Bangkok court concluded that army troops killed 6 people at Pathum Wanaram temple May 2010 following “Red Shirt” protest.

National Security Council (NSC) and Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) 12 July announced “common understanding” to curb violence for period of 40 days, including Ramadan, 10 July-18 Aug; BRN agreed to make effort to halt bombings and armed attacks on govt/civilian targets, govt agreed to “refrain from any aggressive actions”. Bombings and military operations continued in southernmost provinces, amid accusations of agreement violations. Bomb attack in Raman District, Yala, wounded 8 soldiers 11 July. IED attack on armoured vehicle in Cho Airong District, Narathiwat, wounded 2 rangers 17 July. Former Malay Muslim village headman and wife murdered in Yaring District, Pattani, 19 July. Security forces killed insurgent suspect in Cho Airong District 19 July, prompting BRN to file protest with dialogue facilitator Malaysia. Gunmen shot and killed several Malay Muslims, including 2 Islamic-school teachers in Bannang Satar and Muang Districts, Yala 15 July, and local-level officials in Muang and Yaring Districts, Pattani, 19 July. Peace-dialogue sceptics Chalerm Yubamrung (Deputy PM) and Sukampol Suwanathat (Defence Minister) removed or demoted in 30 June cabinet reshuffle; PM Yingluck Shinawatra took defence portfolio. Cabinet 1 July reversed its 19 June decision to lower guaranteed prices paid to rice farmers. Anti-govt groups continued to stage small demonstrations. Protesters rallied in front of Army HQ in Bangkok 10 July calling for coup to oust “parliamentary dictatorship”; army chief scolded group for demanding military intervention. NSC dismissed purported al-Qaeda video posted online 27 July, which threatened assassination of exiled former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, as work of Thaksin’s domestic political opponents.

Cabinet 10 June approved extension of emergency decree in southernmost provinces for another 90 days, and extension of Internal Security Act in several districts of Songkhla province and Mae Lan district of Pattani for another year. 3rd round of dialogue between National Security Council and militants led by Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) took place 13 June in Malaysia: the 2 sides pledged to reduce violence during Ramadan 9 July-7 Aug. BRN announced they would draft terms for ceasefire by 25 June, reiterated earlier demands: that Malysia be elevated to mediator; unconditional release of prisoners and lifting of arrest warrants for suspects in security cases; recognition of BRN as liberation movement;and participation of ASEAN members, Organisation of Islamic Cooperation and other NGOs to observe talks. BRN 25 June released 4th in series of videos, announcing ceasefire contingent on 7 sweeping demands, including withdrawal of Thai security forces from region. Further talks in jeopardy after several high-ranking officials rejected new demands. Deadly violence continued in deep south, civilians and security forces killed in number of attacks, including 8 soldiers killed by bomb in Yala province 29 June. Anti-govt demonstrations gaining momentum in Bangkok and other urban areas, opposed to constitutional reform and “parliamentary dictatorship”. Govt braced for farmer protests after announcing reduction in rice subsidy scheme.

Violence continued in deep South: gunmen 1 May shot dead 6 people in Pattani shop including 2-year-old child; leaflets found in Yala’s Muang district claimed attack was revenge for deaths of 4 rebels killed by security officers, also claimed insurgents would kill people, including women and children, to pressure govt to accept Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) demands in fledgling dialogue process; some indications that vigilantes or rogue security forces may have carried out attack. 5kg bomb in Asia Hotel in Sungai Kolok, Narathiwat 18 May injured 6. National political tensions rising as opponents of PM Yingluck denounced her 29 April speech at 7th Ministerial Conference of the Community of Democracies in Ulan Bator, Mongolia, which criticised democratic backsliding in wake of 2006 coup. Uptick in street protests by rival political camps, including tens of thousands of red shirts protesting in Bangkok 19 May, protracted yellow shirt rally at Sanam Luang starting 5 May. 26 May bomb blast in Ramkhamhaeng, Bangkok injured 7; authorities discount connection to southern insurgency.

Constitutional Court 3 April accepted petition to rule on legality of bills to amend 2007 Constitution, but declined to issue injunction to halt deliberation of bills in National Assembly. Hearings at ICJ to interpret 1962 judgment concerning disputed territory around Preah Vihear Temple ended 17 April; judge requested Thailand and Cambodia submit written arguments defining “vicinity” of temple. Insurgents stepped up attacks in southernmost provinces following first meeting of dialogue process between Bangkok and insurgent representatives 28 March. 22 officials killed 28 Feb-22 April. Yala deputy governor Issara Thongthawat and one other official killed by IED in Than To District 5 April, highest-ranking official killed in conflict. Hassan Taib and Abdul Karim Khalib of Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) released video 27 April issuing 5 demands as conditions for dialogue, including dropping all charges against suspected insurgents, stated armed struggle will continue. In 29 April talks in Malaysia, BRN pressed demands while Bangkok gave BRN one month to curb attacks.

Insurgent violence in deep South continued following 28 Feb announcement of consensus agreement on formal dialogue between govt and Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN). First dialogue meeting 28 March in Kuala Lumpur resulted in agreement on terms of reference. National Security Council chief Police Lt-General Paradorn Pattanathabutr 11 March reportedly said establishment of special administrative zone in region may be necessary for peace, provoking criticism from army, opposition; Paradorn later disavowed comment. 3 people killed 10 March in separate shooting attacks on Pattani; 4 police killed 15 March by IED in Reuso, Narathiwat Province. 3 rangers killed, 5 wounded by IED in Cho Airong, Narathiwat, 28 March as talks began in Malaysia. National Anti-Corruption Commission revealed it is investigating alleged financial misconduct by PM Yingluck. Group of 42 red-shirt-aligned Pheu Thai Party MPs submitted bill seeking amnesty for those jailed for 2010 political demonstrations.

Govt 28 Feb announced agreement with representatives of Southern Muslim rebel group Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), brokered by Malaysia, to start a dialogue process. Several deadly militant attacks on civilians in south early-month: 5 soldiers died in militant attack on truck in Yala province 10 Feb with 50kg bomb; several other shooting incidents in Yala and Pattani province same day, 2 killed. 50-80 militants 13 Feb launched assault on marine base in Bacho District, Narathiwat; military, with prior warning of attack, killed 16 militants, including several men detained by security forces in 2004 Tak Bai incident. Militants retaliated 16-17 Feb with some 50 explosive devices around Pattani town, including device near clock tower that killed 3; security forces defused dozens of small devices. Govt 18 Feb announced it had decided to replace emergency decree with Internal Security  Act in some districts. In Bangkok, several hundred Red Shirt protesters rallied 29 Jan demanding PTP govt grant amnesty to political prisoners jailed for lèse-majesté and terrorism charges stemming from April-May 2010 protests. Further divisions in Red Shirt movement as Kwanchai Praipana, chief of Khon Rak Udon, 13 Feb said his group would no longer respond to United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship leader Thida Thawornseth’s orders. Thai-Cambodian Regional Border Committee concluded meeting in Bangkok 15 Feb, agreed on mechanisms to resolve conflicts on border.

Group of red shirt leaders and Pheu Thai Party MPs 10 Jan asked Constitutional Court to clarify its July 2012 ruling on necessity to hold referendum prior to amending constitution; Constitutional Court president declined to clarify ruling. Several people killed in insurgent attacks in Pattani and Narathiwat provinces in south. Court 17 Jan sentenced red shirt activist and adviser to deputy commerce minister Yotwarit Chuklom to 2 years’ prison for lèse-majesté. Some 2,000 Thai Patriots Network members and People’s Alliance for Democracy supporters rallied in Bangkok 21 Jan to submit petition calling on govt to reject ICJ jurisdiction on Preah Vihear temple dispute with Cambodia. Court 23 Jan sentenced editor Somyot Preuksakasemsuk to 11 years’ prison for publishing 2 articles deemed offensive to monarchy.

Violence in South intensifying with series of attacks on civilians: in Narathiwat teacher killed 3 Dec, another injured 4 Dec; teachers closed province schools in protest 6-7 Dec. 4 killed, 5 injured 11 Dec in drive-by shooting in Rangae district; many locals reportedly believe attack to be Buddhist retaliation for attacks on teachers. In Cho Airong district suspected insurgents injured 6 paramilitary rangers 14 Dec, killed 2 civil servants 17 Dec. In Pattani, teacher and school director shot dead 11 Dec in Mayo district; 2 killed 3 Dec in Khok Po, Sai Buri districts. Authorities closed all state-run schools in South 12-17 Dec. Unidentified sniper 19 Dec shot dead police in Yala. PM Yingluck visited region 13 Dec. Cabinet 11 Dec voted to resume process to amend 2007 constitution. Coalition parties 14 Dec agreed to hold referendum on charter reform early 2013. Department of Special Investigations early Dec charged former PM Abhisit and former deputy PM Suthep with authorising murder of taxi driver during 2010 red shirt protests; Abhisit and Suthep dismissed charge.