Violence continued in Deep South, while royal approval of two election laws cleared way for vote in 2019. In ongoing Southern insurgency, gunmen killed two civilians in daylight attack in Thepha district, Songkhla province 2 Sept; militants 8 Sept killed two village defence volunteers and wounded two others in Chanae district, Narathiwat. Roadside IED targeted officials in Songkhla’s Chana district 9 Sept, no injuries; insurgents ambushed motorcycle-borne ranger patrol in Nong Chik district, Pattani 11 Sept, killing two and wounding four. Insurgents launched coordinated attacks on two Provincial Electricity Authority offices in Yala and Pattani 30 August, no injuries. Royal Gazette 12 Sept published king’s approval of two final organic laws on election, removing the final legal obstacles for general election to proceed according to ruling National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO)’s roadmap. Law on election of members of parliament will take effect 10 Dec, after which constitution requires a general election be held within 150 days. NCPO 14 Sept partially lifted ban on political activity, allowing political parties inter alia to select executives and contact members. Most political activity, including campaigning, still prohibited; govt said ban on political gatherings of five or more people and other political activities will be lifted mid-Dec. UN Secretary-General’s annual report 12 Sept listed Thailand among 38 countries engaging in reprisals and intimidation “against civilians who cooperate with the UN to uphold human rights”; junta spokesman said accusation was meant to discredit govt.

Violence in Southern insurgency continued: in Narathiwat province, two Muslim defence volunteers killed in ambush in Sungai Padi district 7 Aug, and police blamed militants for murder of Buddhist woman and her daughter in Bacho district 11 Aug. In Pattani province, gunmen 8 Aug killed villager in Mayo district and wounded defence volunteer in Kapho district; suspected militants shot and wounded police officer and his wife in Saiburi 18 Aug. Authorities 22 Aug announced they had killed three militant suspects and arrested ten in operations over preceding week, including two killed in raid in Yala province’s Krong Pinang district. Gunman killed defence volunteer and bystander in Pattani town 30 Aug. Malaysian PM Mahathir appointed former police inspector general Tan Sri Abdul Rahim Noor as new facilitator for dialogue process between Thai govt and MARA Patani (Patani Consultative Council, umbrella group of five Malay-Muslim separatist groups in exile); still no indication of when dialogue will resume. In most concrete indication yet of prospective date for long-delayed general election, Election Commission 18 Aug said election would take place 24 Feb 2019 but reversed announcement following day; Deputy PM Wissanu Krea-ngam 20 Aug said election would take place between 24 Feb and 5 May; and PM Prayuth Chan-ocha said, during mobile cabinet meeting in Chumphon province 22 Aug, that election could be held 24 Feb “if we can do it”.

Amid ongoing violence in southern insurgency, series of five bombings targeting Buddhist-owned rubber plantations in Yala province 28 June-4 July wounded five, including in Krong Pinang district 2 July and Muang district 4 July. Villager shot dead at rubber plantation in Chanae district, Songkhla province 14 July. Motorcycle-borne gunmen shot dead policeman in Cho Airong district, Narathiwat, 10 July. Dialogue process between Bangkok and MARA Patani (Patani Consultative Council) remains on hold pending decision by new Malaysian govt on its role as facilitator. PM Prayuth Chan-ocha 27 June said another meeting with political parties would be held in Sept to discuss long-delayed national poll; commented that “national reconciliation” and stability must be achieved before general election; and dismissed as groundless speculation that he would compete for elected office. National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO)’s hand-picked National Assembly 9 July unanimously approved twenty-year national strategy, including sanctions designed to prevent future civilian govts from revoking it, ruling that they must comply with strategy and stating that political parties are prohibited from advocating policies at odds with strategy; regime’s appointed Senate will ensure compliance, together with National Strategy Commission, which will include all military service chiefs.

Early June saw spike in killings in southernmost provinces during latter half of Ramadan, in keeping with pattern of violence during Ramadan over past decade. Pattani Islamic Committee Deputy Chair Aduldej Chenae died after being shot in Saiburi district 8 June; victim was involved in establishment of coordination centre for prospective safety zone, a confidence-building measure in ongoing peace dialogue process. Spate of shootings targeted Muslim men allegedly involved in illegal drugs trade late May and early June. National Security Council chief General Wanlop Raksanor 18 June said peace dialogue process will pause pending decision from new Malaysian govt on whether to continue as facilitator of process. Malaysian PM Mahathir Mohamad 25 June told reporters Malaysia would continue as facilitator, offered no details. Govt 20 June lifted emergency decree in Sungai Kolok, Narathiwat, third of 36 deep south districts to have it lifted. PM Prayuth Chan-o-cha 19 June introduced new source of uncertainty about timing of general election promised for Feb 2019, saying it will only take place after coronation of King Rama X, which has not yet been announced; deputy PM 25 June said it could be as late as 5 May 2019, and partial lifting of ban on political activity possible in Sept. Crown Property Bureau mid-June assigned direct responsibility for its assets, estimated at more than $30bn, to King Rama X. Constitution Court 5 June ruled on suit filed by Democrat Party, upholding legality of National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) Order 53/2560 which prohibits political party activities without NCPO permission.

Militants staged coordinated bombings across country’s four southernmost provinces 20 May, mostly targeting ATMs and utility poles; sixteen IEDs exploded, three people injured. Among attacks in Yala province, militants 15 May launched grenades at three separate security posts in Krong Penang district and Yaha district, injuring two rangers; on 4 May detonated bombs on two cellular towers and set tyres on fire in several districts. In Narathiwat province, one ranger wounded 25 May in clash with militants on border between Rangae and Chanae districts. Gunmen killed Muslim man and wounded former defence volunteer in Rangae on 26 May. No public developments in peace dialogue process between Bangkok and MARA Patani following April announcement by PM Prayuth that pilot safety zone would be established in Narathiwat’s Cho Airong district. Election victory of Pakatan Harapan in Malaysia prompted speculation new Malaysian govt may review its role as dialogue facilitator (Malaysian facilitator was reportedly close to former Malaysian PM Najib Razak). Security officials set up checkpoints on roads leading to Bangkok ahead of four-year anniversary of military coup that brought National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) to power 22 May; hundreds of demonstrators attempted to march to Government House, fifteen protest leaders arrested and charged with sedition, released on bail 24 May. NCPO 18 May launched proceedings against Pheu Thai Party for violating regime orders banning political activity and for violating Computer Crimes Act, after three of its members read out indictment of military rule before media. Constitutional Court 30 May ruled that draft organic law on election of MPs does not violate constitution, clearing an obstacle to general election.

Following Feb agreement between govt and MARA Patani (umbrella group of five Malay-Muslim separatist groups in exile), PM Prayuth Chan-ocha 17 April announced pilot “safety zone” would be established in Cho Airong district, Narwathiwat province in Deep South by end of April, but MARA Patani told media some issues remain to be resolved. Intended as confidence-building measure, safety zone calls for cessation of attacks on civilians; however lack of participation of main militant group, Barisan Revolusi Nasional Patani Melayu (BRN), in MARA Patani process has led to concerns group will sabotage safety zone. Earlier, Prayuth and cabinet 4 April visited Pattani province, meeting with local communities. Ongoing violence in Deep South included: in Narathiwat province, militants 3 April shot dead senior police officer at his home in Sungai Padi district, and three motorcycle-borne bombs exploded in Sungai Kolok 9 April, wounding at least thirteen. In Pattani province, gunmen 8 April killed village defence volunteer in Mayo district; police 10 April killed two insurgents during gun battle in Yarang district; militants 16 April killed two men in Khok Pho district. National Legislative Assembly 3 April forwarded organic law on election of MPs to Constitutional Court for ruling on its constitutionality, on orders from PM, raising concerns over possibility of further delays to general election promised for Feb 2019; Prayuth promised “quick vetting”. Prayuth 3 April told reporters he would be willing to accept PM’s post; follows recent formation of several small parties to support him as PM after a general election.

Eight-member delegation of Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) visited Bangkok and southernmost provinces Narathiwat, Pattani, and Yala 27 Feb-1 March; expressed support for peace dialogue process with MARA Patani and affirmed that security measures imposed by govt do not disproportionately affect Muslims in region. Commander of Fourth Army Region Lt Gen Piyawat Nakwanich, responsible for southern provinces, 28 Feb made comments to media casting doubt on dialogue process between Bangkok and MARA Patani, which responded 23 March with statement expressing concern over Piyawat’s remarks, affirming its commitment to solving conflict through dialogue and noting that talks remain at technical level and nothing, including “safety zone” announced in mid-February, has been finalised. National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) faced continued public demonstrations demanding general election, and growing pressure from political parties for end to ban on political activity. PM Prayuth Chan-ocha told reporters 27 Feb that an election will take place in February 2019, provided right conditions are in place including maintenance of peace and order; previous five promises to hold elections have been broken. National Legislative Assembly 19 March forwarded organic law on senate selection to Constitutional Court, which opens possibility that law could be struck down and redrafted, further delaying general election. Election Commission opened registration for new political parties 2 March. Deputy PM Prawit Wongsuwon 29 March said that ban on political activities will be lifted in June.

As violence continued in southern insurgency, Thai delegation in peace dialogue with MARA Patani (umbrella group of five Malay-Muslim separatist groups in exile) 15 Feb announced they had agreed on an unnamed district to serve as pilot safety zone, almost two years after announcing framework agreement establishing safety zones. Main militant group Barisan Revolusi Nasional Patani Melayu not party to dialogue. Violence continued in Southern insurgency, with incidents including: in Pattani, rubber tapper shot dead by gunmen in Mae Lan district 3 Feb; assistant village head shot dead in Muang district 5 Feb; assistant village headman and family member shot dead by gunmen in Mayo district 6 Feb; series of six bomb explosions wounded six people in Yaring district 10 Feb, followed by two bombs in Yarang district; three other bombs discovered and disarmed in Saiburi district. In Yala province, small roadside IED exploded near school in Yaha district, injuring defence volunteer, mother and young student 6 Feb; IED in Muang district 15 Feb wounded two defence volunteers. In Narathiwat province, two Muslim men shot dead in Si Sakhon district 13 Feb; four soldiers wounded by IED in Chanae district 17 Feb; rubber tapper shot dead in Yi-ngo district 17 Feb. Following Jan postponement of general election until early 2019 at earliest, protests against junta and demonstrations demanding general election in 2018 continued to grow in size and frequency, including several hundreds attending rallies in Bangkok 10 and 24 Feb. “We Walk” marchers, protected by late Jan Administrative Court ruling instructing police not to obstruct them, reached Khon Kaen in north east 17 Feb and staged rally calling for elections and end to military rule. Luxury watch scandal surrounding Deputy PM and Defence Minister General Prawit Wongsuwon continued to burden National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) govt.

Scandal surrounding Deputy PM and Defence Minister General Prawit Wongsuwan, concerning his undeclared and unexplained possession of 25 luxury watches, continued to damage National Order for Peace and Order (NCPO), galvanising activists and others opposed to military rule. Prominent conservatives, including former NCPO minister, called for Prawit to resign. National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) 24 Jan declared Prawit not required to declare assets he does not own; NACC chairman (a former Prawit aide) same day recused himself from investigation. National Legislative Assembly (NLA) 25 Jan unanimously passed election bill that will delay general election by additional 90 days. Earliest election will be Feb 2019; NCPO had earlier promised poll in Nov 2018. Delay prompted further criticism from politicians. PM General Prayuth Chan-ocha 4 Jan told media he is a politician, not a soldier, which many took as indication of his intention to retain power after election. Public criticism of military rule continued to grow. Coalition of pro-democracy groups joined under banner of “People’s Network” 15 Jan to demand repeal of regime orders, and criticised laws passed by NLA. Members of network scuffled with police as they attempted to begin 450km march from Bangkok to Khon Kaen in north east. Administrative Court 26 Jan ordered police to allow march to proceed, in ruling likely to encourage more protests; govt 31 Jan charged eight activists with violating ban on public gatherings. New Democracy Movement and supporters 27 Jan staged protest against election delay and NCPO in Bangkok. In southern insurgency, security forces 5 Jan rounded up 25 suspected militants in Pattani and Yala, 20 in connection with attack on bus in Yala 17 Dec. Violent incidents included: IED wounded six rangers on patrol in Pattani’s Nong Chik district 10 Jan; gunmen 10 Jan killed three relatives of former defence volunteer in Thung Yang Daeng district, Pattani; three people killed by bomb at market in Yala’s Muang district 22 Jan.

Govt linked late Nov discovery of weapons cache in field outside Bangkok to alleged conspiracies to launch political violence; Deputy PM and Defence Minister General Prawit Wongsuwan and Army Chief General Chalermchai Sitthisat 5 Dec stated that under circumstances, not right time to lift political activities ban. Democrat Party spokesman Wirat Kalayasiri accused regime of using cache as “excuse to delay elections”. Prawit on defensive after photos surfaced showing him wearing expensive watches and jewellery that do not appear on his assets disclosure form. Regime continued to harass its critics, bringing sedition charges against former Pheu Thai Party spokesperson Lieutenant Sunisa Loetphakhawat for critical Facebook posts. EU 11 Dec agreed to restore “political contacts at all levels” with coup-installed regime, having suspended normal relations after army seized power in May 2014; said change was “to facilitate meaningful dialogue on issues of mutual importance, including on human rights and fundamental freedoms, and the road toward democracy”; added that negotiations for free trade agreement will resume only after political rights are restored and “democratically elected civilian government” returned to power. Regime officials and supporters hailed move as EU endorsement of “special situation” in Thailand. Heavy rains and flooding in many parts of deep south contributed to lull in insurgent attacks. Attacks on 25 Dec, including bombings of electricity pylons, led to blackouts in parts of Yala and Pattani. Royal Gazette 28 Nov announced extension of Internal Security Act (ISA) in parts of Pattani and Songkhla provinces for another year; in force for almost ten years, ISA gives officials authority to ban anyone from entering areas declared off-limits and prohibit people from leaving their property.