CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Amid growing demand from politicians and others for end to ban on political activity and impatience with military rule, junta stepped up surveillance of regime opponents and granted greater authority to military-dominated Internal Security Operations Command. PM Prayuth Chan-ocha 8 Nov posed six questions to public, with answers to be collected by govt; questions allude to whether “same old political parties” will lead to reform, suggest politicians distorting information to discredit military govt. Defence minister mid-Nov ordered police and intelligence officers to monitor “high-risk political elements”. PM Prayuth 22 Nov exercised his sweeping authority under Article 44 to amend security law governing Internal Security Operations Command, giving it greater authority at provincial level, including power to second officials from other govt agencies. Several academics and politicians decried move as further political repression. Freedom House NGO 15 Nov branded Thailand’s internet as “not free”, ranking it among lowest in region. Month saw several incidents of violence in southern insurgency, including on 8 Nov joint police and military team killed two insurgents in shootout and arrested third in Pattani’s Sai Buri district. Border Patrol Police officer killed by IED 21 Nov in Bannang Satar district; authorities believe bombing was in retaliation for 8 Nov killing of two insurgents. No developments in the peace-dialogue process; PM led mobile cabinet meeting in Songkhla and Pattani 27-28 Nov. Protesters opposed to proposed coal-power plant in Thepa, Songkhla, scuffled with police while trying to deliver letter to Prayuth 27 Nov; sixteen arrested.
Year of official mourning for King Bhumibol Adulyadej ended 30 Oct following cremation ceremony 26 Oct. PM Prayuth Chan-ocha 10 Oct said military govt will announce general election date “around June” of 2018, by which time all four organic laws should be completed; under new constitution, election must be held within 180 days of their promulgation. Prayuth met U.S. President Trump 2 Oct; said “President Trump did not put any pressure on us at all [regarding elections]”. Senior officials made conflicting statements about lifting military’s ban on political activities, key step on roadmap for restoration of civilian rule. Violence continued in southern insurgency, including roadside IED attack targeting motorcycle-borne ranger patrol 9 Oct, killing one ranger and wounding another in Narathiwat's Bacho district; assistant village chief shot dead 14 Oct in mosque in Thung Yang Daeng district, Pattani. BBC news 29 Sept reported interview with “Yusuf” of main militant group Barisan Revolusi Nasional’s information department, who said group will continue with military operations until govt “opens up for both sides to jointly solve the conflict”; also said BRN would not join MARA Patani, umbrella group of separatist fronts, in talks with Bangkok facilitated by Malaysia. General Aksara Kerdpol, chief of Thai dialogue delegation, said Thailand would not accede to BRN’s demands under pressure from insurgent violence.
Technical meeting of peace dialogue process between Bangkok and MARA Patani (Patani Consultative Council, umbrella group of separatist fronts that does not include main militant group BRN) took place 11-12 Sept in Kuala Lumpur, ended without agreement on pilot safety zone. Series of three bombs in Yala province 14 Sept killed one soldier and one police officer and wounded 26 others. Roadside IED in Saiburi district, Pattani, killed four rangers 22 Sept. Supreme Court 27 Sept found former PM Yingluck Shinawatra guilty of negligence for failing to stem corruption in her govt’s rice-subsidy scheme, sentenced her in absentia to five years’ jail; media report she will seek asylum in the UK. King Maha Vajiralongkorn 1 Sept endorsed annual military reshuffle, seen as apparent effort to restore balance to promotions and bolster army unity. Junta officials 11 Sept speculated that general election would be held in Dec 2018, but cautioned that four pending organic laws to manage polling could cause further delay. Aphichat Punnajanto, monk who previously called for burning of mosques in response to Muslim militant violence, detained and defrocked late Sept; govt said his actions demean religion and could cause conflict in society.
Former PM Yingluck Shinawatra fled country before Supreme Court due to deliver verdict in her trial for dereliction of duty for failing to stem corruption in her govt’s rice-subsidy scheme 25 Aug. Amid concerns verdict could stir moribund anti-junta movement, military and police set up checkpoints on roads from Red-Shirt strongholds in north/north east to Bangkok. Thai-speaking armed men 29 July reportedly abducted anti-govt activist and prominent Red Shirt leader Wuthipong Kochathamakun in Laotian capital Vientiane, where he fled in March following allegations he was organising armed resistance to junta; govt denied any knowledge of incident. Crackdown on opposition in media continued, including for social media posts on politics. Defence Minister General Prawit Wongsuwan 9 Aug told reporters junta’s ban on political activity would remain in effect. National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission 10 Aug levied another 30-day ban on pro-Thaksin cable television channel Peace TV. Law student and pro-democracy activist 15 Aug plead guilty to lèse-majesté after sharing BBC Thai article about King Rama X on Facebook; attorney general 16 Aug indicted eight people on lèse majesté charges, accused of burning portraits of late and current kings in May. Amid ongoing militant violence in Deep South, two village volunteers killed and four injured 1 Aug by IED in Mai Kaen district, Pattani. Militants 16 Aug stole six trucks in Songkhla and rigged them with IEDs; three trucks abandoned, one IED injured four soldiers in Pattani, one caused only property damage, and security forces killed driver of another truck. Two hostages shot in incident, one fatally.
Appointed legislature 16 July passed legislation giving control of Crown Property Bureau, which reportedly controls assets of some $40bn and was previously administered by finance ministry, to King MahaVajiralongkorn (Rama X), giving him “sole authority over royal assets”. Amid contradictory statements from officials over whether future govts will be compelled to implement twenty-year reform plan, seen by critics as bid to extend military influence over civilian govts, PM Prayuth 7 July said that anyone who believes National Council for Peace and Order wishes to cling to power should not be considered Thai. Prayuth 17 July approved “social contract for unity and reconciliation” emphasising “clean” government and including ban on govts using executive powers for political gain. Govt continued efforts to weaken exiled former PM Thaksin Shinawatra and family, enacting new law 13 July that would sustain old cases against him by suspending statutes of limitations in certain cases (applying retroactively) and approving use of trials in absentia. Criminal case for dereliction of duty against former PM Yingluck Shinawatra due to end with verdict 25 Aug; amid govt fears that it could provide rallying point for growing discontent with military rule, Prayuth warned her supporters against protesting. Yingluck 27 July said govt has seized twelve of her bank accounts, although injunction against asset seizure is still pending; state-appointed committee Sept 2015 recommended Yingluck pay 35.7bn baht ($1bn) fine as compensation for losses incurred by her govt’s rice subsidy. As southern insurgency continued to inflict casualties, several suspected militants killed during month allegedly while resisting arrest, including two suspects in May shopping centre bombing in Pattani. Deputy defence minister 28 June told reporters govt is looking into whether it has the “right dialogue partners” in peace dialogue process, leading to speculation it may reconsider possibility of engaging with main insurgent group Barisan Revolusi Nasional.
In southern insurgency, seven soldiers injured in two coordinated bomb attacks in Narathiwat’s Tak Bai district 2 June. In Pattani, two motorcycle-borne gunmen killed assistant village headman in Yarang district 15 June; gunmen opened fire on group of Buddhist teenagers in Yaring district 17 June, killing two; six soldiers killed by IED attack on their vehicle 19 June; Islamic school teacher shot dead in Nong Chik district 20 June; IED attack in Sungai Kolol, Narathiwat, wounded twelve soldiers and two civilians, including four-year-old girl 23 June. Army chief General Chalermchai Sithisart visited border with Malaysia 4 June, said increased border patrols since May aimed to suppress smuggling and border crossing by Islamist insurgents. Govt gathered almost 100,000 public responses to four questions posed by PM Prayuth during his late May weekly national television broadcast, in which he questioned value of elections; many politicians called questions, which included “Do you think the next election will result in a government with good governance?” and “if conflict re-emerges, who will solve it and by what means?”, a bid to prolong NCPO’s hold on power. NCPO’s hand-picked legislature National Legislative Assembly moved ahead with plans to reset political system and institutions, approving bills to reconstitute Election Commission, National Human Rights Commission and Office of the Ombudsman with regime appointees and to establish national strategy commission to draft twenty-year strategy that elected govts will be required to implement. Police 15 June arrested retired electrical engineer who reportedly confessed to 22 May hospital bombing, bombings on 5 April and 15 May and three other bombings going back to 2007; suspect reportedly supporter of former PM Thaksin Shinawatra and opponent of military rule.
Vehicle-borne IED exploded at shopping centre in Pattani 9 May, wounding around 80 civilians; smaller device exploded nearby minutes earlier; attack was first car bomb of 2017, and first to indiscriminately target Malay-Muslim civilians. Police 11 May found bound and beaten body of vehicle’s owner in Pattani’s Nong Chik district. Three bombings in Bangkok in weeks leading up to three-year anniversary of 2014 coup 22 May indicated continuing political discord: small device on Ratchadamneon Avenue injured two 5 April; 15 May bombing in front of National Theatre injured two; bomb exploded inside army-run Bangkok hospital 22 May, in room named after deputy PM and former army chief Pravit Wongsuwan, wounding 25; authorities said bombings were work of same group trying to discredit ruling National Council for Peace and Order. Large pipe bomb found near Bangkok subway station 30 May. Several arrests and prosecutions for lèse-majesté, including six arrests 29 April and five arrests 19 May in NE province Khon Kaen; UN regional human rights office expressed concern over “sharp increase” in use of law since 2014 coup. Govt continued efforts to censor online content deemed to violate lèse-majesté law, threatened Facebook with criminal charges over offending web pages.
King Vajiralongkorn 6 April signed draft constitution, important step toward general election; Constitution Drafting Commission now has until 2 Dec to complete ten organic laws, four governing parties and elections. Changes to draft constitution requested by king were revealed following promulgation: in most significant, Article 5 revised to return to past formula giving king – rather than Constitutional Court and committee of state-agency chiefs – authority to resolve political disputes not covered elsewhere in constitution; other changes give king complete control over appointment of regent during his absence and rescind requirement for parliamentary counter-signature to royal orders. Marked uptick in insurgent attacks in deep south from late March, including 3 April attack on police station in Krong Pinang district, Yala, wounding at least nine police; over twenty bomb attacks across three southernmost provinces and SE Songkhla on night of 6-7 April targeting electricity poles, causing power cuts but no casualties; thirteen attacks across Narathiwat, Pattani and Songkhla provinces 19 April, wounding eight people; ambush in Narathiwat 27 April killing five rangers and wounding one. Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) 10 April issued statement reiterating points from Oct 2015 statement, setting out conditions for participation in dialogue with Bangkok: called for “participation of third parties (international community) as witnesses and observers”, credible and impartial mediator and process “designed clearly by the negotiating parties and agreed upon before the start of negotiation”; govt dismissed statement.
UN Human Rights Committee monitoring compliance with International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights in Geneva 14 March questioned Thai delegation on dictatorial powers of interim constitution’s Article 44 and lèse-majesté law; expressed concern over issues including freedoms of expression and assembly. Constitution Drafting Committee, now charged with drafting organic laws, early March suggested election may not be held until Sept/Oct 2018. Govt’s siege of Buddhist temple Wat Dhammakaya ended 11 March after 23 days, without arrest of temple’s former abbot Dhammachayo on charges of money laundering. Police and soldiers 18 March raided house north of Bangkok, allegedly belonging to Red Shirt activist Wutthiphong “Kotee” Kotchammakhun, in exile since 2014 coup, discovered cache of weapons; nine Red Shirts arrested in central and NE regions on suspicion of plotting terrorism, with many seeing arrests as politically motivated. Soldier 17 March shot dead Lahu activist Chaiyapoom Pasae near checkpoint in Chiang Mai province (north), prompting demands for investigation. Army says killing was in self-defence. Secretary of Thai dialogue team 16 March gave briefing on late Feb agreement with MARA Patani (umbrella group of five Malay-Muslim separatist groups in exile) to establish five safety zones, or ceasefire areas, in three southernmost provinces before year-end: said agreement would allow up three killings in each district per month before sanctions would be introduced; assessment team including state officials, MARA Patani representatives and local residents will be formed for each safety zone and help determine who is responsible for any violence; govt expects agreement on which five districts will be designated safety zones by mid-April. Main insurgent group Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) not participating in dialogue. Soon after announcement of agreement, series of attacks took place killing eleven people, including Buddhist couple killed in Thepa district, Songkhla province, 1 March; Buddhist deputy village headman and three of his family killed by gunmen 2 March in Reusoh district, Narathiwat. Govt 16 March extended the Emergency Decree in southernmost provinces for 45th consecutive time since 2005.
Draft constitution returned to king 18 Feb following amendment of provisions concerning royal prerogatives; king has 90 days to sign. National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) instituted national reconciliation process with appointment of four committees on national strategy, reform, reconciliation, and strategic administration 6 Feb, and series of meetings hosted by defence ministry to canvas views of politicians starting 14 Feb; major political parties expressed scepticism over process. PM Prayuth Chan-ocha 15 Feb invoked Article 44 of interim constitution, which grants him unreviewable authority in matters of national security, to declare Wat Dhammakaya temple in Pathumthani “controlled area”, part of efforts to arrest Buddhist monk Dhammachayo on charges of money laundering. Dhammachayo widely seen as sympathetic to exiled former PM Thaksin Shinawatra and Red Shirt movement. Thai and Indonesian defence ministers met in Bangkok 2 Feb, reportedly discussed counter-terrorism intelligence cooperation. U.S. Pacific Commander Admiral Harry Harris launched annual combined military exercise Cobra Gold in Chonburi 14 Feb; most senior U.S. official to visit Thailand since May 2014 coup. In southern insurgency, suspected militants killed several people in attacks in Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat during month. MARA Patani, umbrella group of five separatist groups in exile, issued statement 20 Feb in support of communities protesting against coal power plants in Krabi and Songkhla provinces. Member of Thai dialogue team 22 Feb said agreement reached with MARA Patani on establishment of safety zone, or limited ceasefire; main militant group BRN is not a party to MARA Patani.
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