CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Asia

Timor-Leste

Rebel leader Alfredo Reinado accused PM Gusmao of masterminding 2006 crisis in video released early Jan. Gusmao refused to respond to allegations. Former PM Alkatiri called for his resignation. President  Ramos-Horta met with Reinado 13 Jan in Maubisse; declared May 2008 deadline for addressing his and petitioners’ grievances. 8 houses burnt in village in Covalima district by neighbouring villagers 4 Jan. Joint UN and local police operations targeted illegal immigration, drugs, and possible human trafficking.

Asia

Timor-Leste

Trial of former head of military police Major Alfredo Reinado, scheduled to commence 3 December, postponed to January 2008. PM Xanana Gusmao and President Ramos Horta attempted to hold dialogue 16 December with Reinado and leader of “petitioners” Gastao Salsinha – both refused to attend. Gusmao gave fugitive Reinado and supporters last chance to surrender, though consequences of non-compliance not elaborated. November UNSC mission reported 13 December; recommended extension of UNMIT mandate which expires February 2008. UNSG Ban Ki-moon visited 14 December, as did Australian PM Kevin Rudd who promised Australian troop presence until at least end 2008.

Asia

Timor-Leste

PM Xanana Gusmão led first government dialogue with “petitioner” group 15-16 November in Ailieu; only 17 of 593 petitioners attended. Violent crime increased from 12 November with martial arts group fights killing 2 in Dili. Electricity problems and impending rice shortage risks triggering further electoral threshold. New Christian Democratic Movement party formed around former leader of Christian Democratic Party Nikolle Lesi 8 November.

Asia

Timor-Leste

Former soldier Vicente Conceicao (aka Railos) arrested 3 October for role in 2006 violence, specifically for 9 deaths in Taci Tolu/Tibar 24 May 2006. Court of Appeal ordered re-trials in 2 high-profile cases of politically-related violence: May 2006 attack on house of army commander Taur Matan Ruak, and murder of CNRT supporter during June parliamentary elections. Timorese man shot dead by Indonesian border troops, 26 October, after allegedly attacking soldiers when confronted. Parliament approved government’s transitional budget 9 October.

Asia

Timor-Leste

Sporadic arson attacks continued in Liquica, Ermera and Viqueque districts. Police (PNTL’s rapid reaction unit) made 8 arrests (including 6 PNTL officers) 15, 16 September in Viqueque district in connection with August arson. Disturbances along Comoro river in Dili throughout month, with hundreds involved in rock fights. Government introduced new 5-year program in parliament 13 September; passed 14 September, 41 to 23 votes; Fretilin criticised lack of government priorities, no allocation of budget by sector. SRSG Atul Khare called 10 September for extension of UNMIT beyond current mandate of 26 February 2008; said mission would take 3-5 years. FM Zacarias da Costa requested UNSC consideration of UNMIT extension to 2012.

Asia

Timor-Leste

President Ramos-Horta asked AMP alliance (CNRT, PSD, ASDT, PD) to form government 6 August, after AMP candidates elected parliament president, vice-president and secretary end July. Fretilin Secretary-General Mari Alkatiri called decision unconstitutional and announced parliamentary boycott. Violent protests and arson attacks followed in Dili, Baucau and Viqueque. UN reported 4,000 displaced. Most ministers and some secretaries of state of new government sworn in 8 August: Xanana Gusmao new PM, with additional direct responsibility for defence, security and natural resources. Jose Luis Guterres of Fretilin Mudansa elected vice prime minister. Fretilin returned to parliament 20 August.

Asia

Timor-Leste

Period since 30 June parliamentary elections characterised by political uncertainty and sporadic violence. Vote proved inconclusive: Fretilin, led by former PM Mari Alkatiri, received most votes with 29%; CNRT, under former President Xanana Gusmao, won 24%. Gusmao is seeking to form government in coalition with other parties (ASDT/PSD and PD), while Fretilin insists on constitutional right to form minority government and former PM Mari Alkatiri announced intention to run for PM 1 August. New parliament inaugurated 30 July. President Ramos-Horta now has to decide who has constitutional right to form government.

Asia

Timor-Leste

Parliamentary elections held 30 June without major incident. Campaign period marred by 3 June shooting in Viqueque district of 2 CNRT supporters by police (one off- duty). Series of house burnings and intimidation displaced over hundred families from Ermera district. President Ramos-Horta asked International Security Forces to stop search for fugitive rebel soldier Alfredo Reinado 19 June and called on prosecutor-general to discuss terms for Reinado’s surrender and weapons handover under mediation of Catholic Church.

Asia

Timor-Leste

Jose Ramos-Horta scored landslide victory in 9 May second round presidential elections with 69%; sworn in 20 May. Fretilin candidate “Lu-Olo” Guterres conceded defeat and encouraged supporters to accept results. Campaign period relatively peaceful, elections pronounced generally free and fair, but accusations of electoral fraud, voter intimidation and vote-buying persisted. 14 parties to contest 30 June parliamentary election, although only 4 expected to win seats: Fretilin, CNRT (headed by Xanana Gusmao), PD, and ASDT/PSD coalition. Clashes between CNRT and Fretilin supporters reported 31 May. Court of Appeal upheld 7 and half year sentence against former interior minister, Rogerio Lobato, for arming civilians in 2006 violence.

Asia

Timor-Leste

First round of presidential elections held 9 April: after 82% turnout, Fretilin candidate Francisco “Lu Olo” Guterres (28%) will face José Ramos Horta (22%) in second round 9 May. Limited campaign-related violence between Fretilin and other supporters in Viqueque and Dili, observers declared polls generally free and fair and devoid of violence. Losing candidates complained of irregularities and intimidation at poll; in Baucau, number of votes exceeded registered voters by factor of 3. Efforts to capture ex-army rebel Alfredo Reinado called off 23 April by Ramos. Sporadic clashes in Dili in late April, but security situation relatively stable.

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