Presidential Guard detained army officers, reflecting widening rifts within army amid series of coups in West and Central Africa; armed group violence continued unabated in hinterland.

Coup in Gabon sparked tensions in Bangui. Amid rumours of imminent coup in Bangui in wake of military overthrow of President Bongo in Gabon, Presidential Guard 10 Sept arrested unknown number of army officers, including Capt. Kamezo-Laï Gilbert and Chief Warrant Officer Kohoté Fabia, both close relatives of diaspora opposition activist Regis Sikangba. Armed forces in following days started identity checks by night on roads of capital Bangui.

President Touadéra proceeded to arrest former rebel leader turned ally. Authorities 4 Sept detained former rebel leader Abdoulaye Hissène, and UN-backed Special Criminal Court 7 Sept charged him with crimes against humanity and war crimes committed in 2017 as one of main leaders of Popular Front for the Renaissance of the Central African Republic. NGO Human Rights Watch next day welcomed move as step toward ending impunity. Many in govt circles however perceived Hissène’s arrest as disloyal move from Touadéra, as Hissène had become govt’s ally since 2019 peace agreement.

Armed groups continued to increase presence in hinterland following referendum. In Nana-Mambéré prefecture (west), govt forces and Russian Wagner Group paramilitaries 2 Sept killed eight 3R rebels in operation 70km from Baoro town; Wagner and 3R elements 10 Sept clashed in Baboua sub-prefecture, leaving one Wagner dead. Attacks by unidentified armed men continued in Bamingui-Bangoran prefecture (north), including ambushes on army checkpoints in Djamassinda and Miaméré villages on 7 and 11 Sept. Rwandan peacekeepers from 26 Aug onward intensified patrols in villages between Mbrès and Koukourou, Nana-Gribizi prefecture (centre), after locals reported increased armed group presence. Meanwhile, UN mission (MINUSCA) 27 Sept announced deployment of peacekeepers in Mboki city, Haut-Mbomou prefecture (east), after Azande Ani Kpi Gbe militia 31 Aug attacked regional peace committee delegation.

In other important developments. As part of unprecedented tour of African countries collaborating with Wagner, Russian Deputy Defence Minister, Col-Gen Yanous Bek Evrourov, 2 Sept met with Touadéra in Bangui. Pursuing diplomatic appeasement initiated since early 2023, French President Macron and Touadéra 13 Sept met in France’s capital Paris.

Referendum win opened the way for President Touadéra to extend his rule indefinitely, institutionalising authoritarian drift.

Touadéra secured controversial referendum victory. Electoral body 7 Aug announced resounding 95% yes vote for new constitution in referendum held 30 July, and Constitutional Court 20 Aug validated results, saying turnout reached 57%. New constitution, which scraps presidential term limits and bars Central Africans of foreign origin or holding another citizenship from running for president, paves the way for Touadéra to seek third term in 2025. Opposition coalition Republican Bloc for the Defence of the Constitution, which boycotted referendum, claimed results were “fraudulent” and turnout as low as 10%; bloc’s coordinator Crépin Mboli-Goumba 22 Aug vowed to “oppose this desire to liquidate democracy in our country”. Internationally, U.S. 22 Aug expressed “deep reservations” over referendum vote in absence of independent electoral observers and called on CAR authorities to set date for long-overdue local elections.

Violence continued amid growing divisions within rebel coalition. Armed forces 1 Aug killed seven presumed Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC) rebels during operation in gold mine in Abba area of Nana-Mambéré prefecture. Amid growing divisions within CPC, locals in Nana-Gribizi prefecture from 19 Aug onward reported presence of unidentified armed group equipped with robust armaments in several villages including Mbrès, Azène, Linguiri, and Koukourou; armed men in Azène allegedly claimed being part of new rebel movement, portrayed it as last chance for rebellion in CAR. In response, UN mission MINUSCA 22 Aug sent blue helmets to patrol area between Mbrès and Koukourou. Unidentified armed group presence also reported late-Aug in Chari village, Bamingui-Bangoran prefecture, while unidentified armed men 25 Aug attacked army position in Yawa village, Lobaye prefecture, forcing over 2,000 people to flee.

In other important developments. In apparent revenge attack, suspected Fulani herders Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC) militiamen 1 Aug killed 13 civilians in Diki village, Bamingui-Bangoran prefecture.

Central Africans voted on new constitution abolishing presidential term limits, while rebel groups stepped up attacks on govt forces in attempt to derail vote.

President Touadéra-sponsored constitutional referendum held 30 July. Touadéra 10 July unveiled proposed new constitution removing two-term limit for presidents, thus paving the way for his third-term bid; draft constitution also creates position of VP appointed by president and bars Central Africans of foreign origin or holding another citizenship from running for president. Opposition coalition Republican Bloc for the Defence of the Constitution (BRDC) voiced discontent but failed to mobilise large numbers, with less than 1,000 people protesting 14 July in capital Bangui. Opposition leader Anicet Georges Dologuélé late July criticised absence of level playing field, citing state control of key voting institutions, absence of electoral register and short campaign timeframe, and BRDC called for boycott of referendum. Vote 30 July proceeded without major incidents.

Armed groups intensified attacks in lead-up to referendum. Rebel Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC) 3-4 July killed at least seven soldiers in ambush 25km from Abba town (Nana-Mambéré prefecture) and attack on checkpoint near Sam-Ouandja town (Haute-Kotto prefecture); 11 July launched another raid on checkpoint 30km from Nana-Bakassa town (Ouham prefecture), killing one soldier. In response, security forces 2-12 July arrested at least 70 people during search operations in Bambari city (Ouaka prefecture) and Bangui. UN peacekeeping force (MINUSCA) 10 July killed 15 suspected CPC fighters and lost one Rwandan peacekeeper during operation in Sam-Ouandja town.

Wagner’s mutiny fuelled speculations about paramilitary group’s future in CAR. Approximately 600 Russian paramilitary Wagner Group operatives 6 July left Bangui heading for Russia, fuelling speculations about group’s future in CAR following Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutiny in Russia in June. Wagner spokesperson in CAR, Alexander Ivanov, 7 July said group will remain in country. CAR’s presidency next day confirmed “it is not a definitive departure but a rotation”, and hundreds of Wagner forces mid-July reportedly landed in Bangui. Meanwhile, UN Security Council 27 July relaxed arms embargo on CAR, lifting restrictions on supply, sale and transfer of arms to govt forces; Bangui criticised decision, demanding total lifting of embargo.

President Touadéra faced renewed pushback from opposition for scheduling constitutional referendum, while rebel violence continued countrywide.

Scheduling of constitutional referendum rekindled political tensions. Opposition and civil society groups early June condemned Touadéra’s late May move to schedule constitutional referendum for 30 July as manoeuvre to stay in power. Notably, opposition leader Alexandre Ferdinand N’Guendet, who briefly served as transitional president in 2014, 1 June reportedly threatened to march on capital Bangui, calling on army to rally behind him to overthrow Touadéra. Army generals 6 June rejected call, and public prosecutor 12 June launched investigation into N’Guendet’s actions. Opposition party Resistance and Transition Council 3 June urged citizens to rise up against Touadéra. UN human rights expert in CAR, Yao Agbetse, 16 June warned referendum could “result in further human rights violations” and urged authorities to prevent surge of hate speech and violence before, during and after vote. Meanwhile, Touadéra 9 June appointed Evariste Ngamana, ruling party spokesperson and parliament’s first VP, as head of referendum campaign, sidelining party’s executive secretary and Parliament Speaker Simplice Mathieu Sarandji, who has spoken out against constitutional reform.

Rebel violence continued across country. Govt forces and rebel Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC) 5 June clashed in Baoro town (Nana-Mambéré prefecture), leaving three civilians injured. CPC fighters 8 June ambushed govt forces near Kadjama village (Ouham prefecture), killing three and capturing one; 13 June attacked army and Russian paramilitary Wagner position in Makoundji Wali village (Ouham-Pendé prefecture), with unknown casualties. Govt forces and Wagner 11 June captured senior CPC official during operation in Bria town (Haute-Kotto prefecture), after CPC fighters surrounded Bria and spread rumours of major attack. Self-defence militia Azandé Ani Kpi Gbé 20 June clashed with Union for Peace in CAR (a member of CPC) rebels in Mboki town (Haut-Mbomou prefecture), leaving unknown number dead.

Chadian army continued military operations in CAR. Chadian military 3 June killed a dozen alleged CAR-based Chadian rebels near Ngolongosso locality (Bamingui-Bangoran prefecture).

Rebel offensive continued, and N’Djamena pursued armed groups in CAR’s border region amid growing mistrust between neighbours over cross-border rebel activity.

Rebel groups clashed with govt forces in north east and north west. Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC) rebels 5 May attacked army position and seized strategic town of Tiringoulou (Vakaga prefecture), killing three soldiers; counter-offensive by govt forces and UN mission (MINUSCA) 7 May forced them to withdraw. UN humanitarian agency in CAR 26 May condemned attacks on humanitarian workers and other civilians after unidentified assailants 24 May reportedly ambushed aid convoy on way back from Am-Dafok village (also Vakaga), killing driver. CPC elements 15 May ambushed armed forces near Bossangoa town (Ouham prefecture), killing four soldiers.

CAR and Chad launched joint operation against cross-border rebel activity. Following reports that Chadian rebels have established rear bases in CAR’s north, N’Djamena 16 May said two countries 14 May launched joint operation in CAR’s north-western Ouham-Pendé prefecture, killing dozen rebels and arresting 23 (see Chad). Meanwhile, alleged French support for late April inauguration of border military post near Chadian town of Goré (Logone Oriental province) fed suspicion in Bangui that France is backing CAR’s rebels based in southern Chad (see Chad). Further feeding mistrust, unidentified military aircraft 3 May crashed in Ouham-Pendé.

Self-defence militia accused UN mission of inaction against rebels in south east. Self-defence militia Azandé Ani Kpi Gbé 7-9 May clashed with Union for Peace in Central African Republic (UPC) rebels in Mboki town (Haut-Mbomou prefecture), losing at least 19 militiamen. Militia later blamed MINUSCA for not taking preventive measures despite indications rebels were preparing assault.

In other important developments. Security forces and Russian paramilitary Wagner Group elements 27 April-4 May conducted raids in Bangui’s Muslim neighbourhood PK5, reportedly arrested ten individuals on allegations of illegal weapons possession and trafficking, demanding payments for their release. PK5 retail traders 5 May shut down shops in protest at “arbitrary” detentions. President Touadéra 30 May announced constitutional referendum will be held 30 July.

Amid persistent rebel violence, conflict in Sudan started affecting border region; emergence of self-defence militia increased risk of intercommunal tensions in south east.

Rebels sustained offensive notably in west and north east. In west, 3R rebel group, a member of Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC), 4 April wounded three soldiers and seven Russian paramilitaries in Bossemptélé town (Ouham-Pendé prefecture). CPC fighters 7 April killed three soldiers and wounded another in ambush near Boda town, confirming rebels’ redeployment in Lobaye prefecture where they have not been present since 2021. In north-eastern Vakaga prefecture, CPC rebels 1 April wounded two artisanal miners 60km from Ouanda-Djallé town, while armed forces 16 April lost five soldiers in clash with pastoralists near Sikikédé locality. In neighbouring Bamingui-Bangoran prefecture, CPC 11 April killed two soldiers near border with Chad.

Conflict in Sudan affected dynamics in border region. After conflict erupted in neighbouring Sudan between Sudanese army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Vakaga prefecture (located along border) recorded increased presence of Sudanese militiamen. Notably, about 40 RSF fighters 25 April reportedly crossed into CAR near Amdafock village. Conflict hampered RSF’s capacity to protect border, offering greater latitude to CPC rebels smuggling weapons and men into CAR going forward. Meanwhile, 500 people fleeing violence in Sudan 26 April arrived in Amdafock.

New self-defence militia launched first attack against govt forces in south east. In Haut-Mbomou prefecture (south east), Azandé Ani Kpi Gbé militia, newly created to protect Zandé ethnic group (the majority locally) from Union for Peace (UPC) rebels, launched first attack on armed forces positions in Obo town, leading to population displacement. Intercommunal tensions could intensify in area, as Zandé militia is hostile to Muslim traders and Fulani herders it perceives as affiliated with UPC. Militia 22-23 April reportedly engaged in fighting with South Sudanese soldiers near Bambouti, leaving unknown number of people dead.

International NGO denounced democratic regression. NGO Human Rights Watch 4 April warned of “potential for human rights violations and the narrowing of democratic space and free expression” as President Touadéra continues to push for constitutional change that would let him run for third term in 2025.

Violence remained pervasive as rebels continued deadly offensive against govt forces in hinterland; tussle for influence intensified between Russia and Western countries.

Rebels continued to step up attacks in hinterland. Suspected Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC) rebels 15 March targeted army position in Wawa village, Ouaka prefecture, leaving at least three civilians dead; 17 March briefly intercepted Archbishop of Bangui Cardinal Dieudonné Nzapalaïnga’s convoy near Ouadda locality, Haute-Kotto prefecture. Unidentified gunmen 19 March attacked Chinese-operated mining site in Chingbolo village (Ouaka), killing nine Chinese nationals; CPC immediately denied attack and accused Russian paramilitary Wagner Group of responsibility. Clashes between army and CPC rebels 23 March left at least three soldiers dead near Kadjama village (Ouham prefecture). Meanwhile, humanitarian workers faced increased insecurity. Notably, Russian forces 5 March briefly detained humanitarian workers after intercepting their convoy in Ouaka’s capital Bambari; 3R rebel group, CPC member, 10 March raided humanitarian convoy and stole their equipment near Bozoum town (Ouham-Pendé prefecture).

U.S. efforts to counter Russian influence came under spotlight. FM Sylvie Baïpo-Temon late Feb-early March denied rumours of negotiations between President Touadéra and U.S. for withdrawal of Wagner forces from country; statement came after French news outlet Le Monde 20 Feb alleged U.S. in Dec 2022 offered to train armed forces, increase humanitarian aid and boost support for UN mission in Central African Republic (CAR) in return for Wagner troops’ departure. Meanwhile, former president and exiled CPC leader, François Bozizé, 3 March left neighbouring Chad for Guinea-Bissau following U.S.-sponsored negotiations; move could be Washington’s first demonstration of good-will to CAR and could help ease tensions between Bangui and N’Djamena.

In other important developments. Unidentified gunmen overnight 5-6 March set storage yard of French-owned local brewery MOCAF on fire in capital Bangui; European source reportedly identified suspects appearing on video footages of attack as Wagner paramilitaries, while pro-Russian medias accused “mercenaries ... paid by France”. Amid series of public-sector strikes, demonstration of schoolteachers 7 March turned violent in Bangui, with mobs reportedly attacking private school buildings. Sudan 9 March reopened border with CAR after two-month closure.

President Touadéra moved closer to holding constitutional referendum in 2023, rebel groups continued to step up attacks in hinterlands, and anti-French sentiment ran high.

Touadéra enacted referendum law ahead of local elections. Touadéra 6 Feb enacted referendum bill passed by parliament in Dec 2022, raising concern he will pair local elections (scheduled for July and Oct) with constitutional referendum that could allow him to run for third term in 2025. Meanwhile, UN mission in CAR 14 Feb announced agreement with govt to secure local elections.

Rebels’ advance continued in north east, use of explosives spread in north west. In Vakaga prefecture (north east), Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC) rebels 14 Feb attacked army base in Sikikédé locality, leaving at least three soldiers dead, four injured and another 20 held hostage; CPC retreated with hostages after army and Russian paramilitary Wagner Group 23 Feb retook locality. North-western prefectures saw series of explosive-related incidents in Feb. Notably in Ouham-Pendé, improvised explosive devices 6 Feb killed two soldiers and one civilian near Ndim locality, and 10 Feb seriously injured five civilians near Bozoum town.

Disinformation campaign and violent attacks targeted French companies. After Wagner Group in Jan opened brewery in country, media campaign from late Jan targeted French-owned local brewery MOCAF, accusing it of financing rebel group Union for Peace in CAR; pro-govt youth platform and one minister reportedly involved in campaign. Trade ministry 2 Feb condemned violent demonstrations against MOCAF held 19-20 Jan in capital Bangui. Meanwhile, unidentified individuals 3 Feb threw grenades at two petrol stations owned by French company TotalEnergies in Bangui.

In other important developments. Touadéra and Chadian Transitional President Mahamat Idriss Déby 9 Feb met in Angola’s capital Luanda to discuss increasing activities of armed groups along shared border; leaders reportedly agreed to work together to address security issues (see Chad). UN independent expert on human rights Yao Agbetse 20 Feb accused govt forces and allies of committing “arbitrary arrests and detentions, violations of the right to life” in last quarter of 2022.

Several hundred Sudan-based rebels entered country; fighting between armed groups on one hand, and govt forces and allies on the other, could escalate in coming weeks.

CAR and Sudan shut shared border citing security challenges. Army Chief of Staff Gen. Zéphirin Mamadou and Vice-Chairman of Sudan’s Transitional Sovereign Council Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemedti” 4-5 Jan announced closure of Central African Republic (CAR)-Sudan land border, with Hemedti warning Sudan-based rebels could seek to overthrow CAR President Touadéra (see Sudan). Hemedti forces in following days deployed to border areas, with some crossing into CAR and taking position near Birao town (Vakaga prefecture). Several hundred Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC) rebels 24 Jan reportedly entered CAR from Sudan near Sam-Ouandja town (Haute-Kotto prefecture). CPC rebels around 25 Jan clashed with govt forces and allied Russian private military company Wagner Group near Gordil (Vakaga).

Rebel groups reinforced presence around main towns in west. In Nana-Mambéré prefecture, CPC 21 and 24 Jan launched major attacks on army positions in Béloko and Besson towns, with several dead; unidentified gunmen 7 Jan attacked security forces in Yenga village near Bouar town, leaving two soldiers dead and one missing. In Mambéré-Kadei prefecture, 3R rebel group (which is part of CPC) 2 Jan attacked mining site near Abba town, killing one miner; 12 Jan killed one soldier and wounded another in raid on army positions in same area.

Constitutional Court cleared way for constitutional referendum. Constitutional Court 3 Jan validated nomination of Jean-Pierre Waboé as new court president to replace Danièle Darlan, whom Touadéra dismissed in Oct, but said Darlan’s dismissal was unconstitutional. Court 20 Jan also confirmed constitutionality of 28 Dec law on referendum procedures, paving way for Touadéra to hold constitutional referendum and potentially run for third term.

Humanitarian needs soared as financial crisis loomed. After Legislative Assembly 27 Dec voted 2023 budget forecasting deficit of over $67mn, govt 3 Jan increased price of fuel by 50%; deterioration of financial situation unfolds as international donors maintain suspension of budgetary aid. UN humanitarian office 18 Jan warned humanitarian situation in CAR is degrading with 50% of population now critically food-insecure.

Authorities and Russian allies accused France of perpetrating “terrorist” acts, and armed groups continued to launch violent attacks across country.

Tensions with France boiled over following incident at border with Chad. After airstrike late Nov reportedly targeted military camp in Bossangoa town (Ouham prefecture near Chadian border), head of pro-govt organisation National Network for Safeguarding the Gains of Peace, Patrick Andjida, 2 Dec accused France and domestic opposition of manoeuvring to destabilise country; Russian military representative Alexander Ivanov 13 Dec said Central African Republic was under “threat … from the outside” and accused “international community” of supporting rebels. As explosive package 16 Dec injured Dimitri Sytyi, head of Russian cultural centre in capital Bangui, Russian private military company Wagner Group owner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, same day blamed attack on Paris, urged Moscow to declare France state sponsor of terrorism; France also 16 Dec denied allegation as “Russian propaganda”. Bangui 18 Dec denounced “terrorist attack” and launched investigation; 20 Dec claimed package was sent from Togo. Meanwhile, last contingent of French troops 15 Dec left country; Paris in June 2021 had suspended military cooperation with Bangui.

Security situation remained dire across country. Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC) rebel groups continued to target civilians and military. Notably, Union for Peace in the Central African Republic 1 Dec launched attack on Bakouma town (Mbomou prefecture) which left seven civilians dead and six wounded. Unidentified CPC rebels 11-12 Dec targeted army positions in Lihoto and Bokolobo localities (Ouaka prefecture), with two civilians dead. Suspected 3R rebels overnight 23-24 Dec ambushed army patrol near Gallo locality (Nana-Mambéré prefecture), killing three soldiers. Armed forces 3-7 Dec reportedly arrested over 200 people, including many civilians, in search operations in towns of Paoua (Ouham-Pendé prefecture), Kaga Bandoro (Nana-Gribizi prefecture) and Bambari (Ouaka). In Haute-Kotto prefecture, govt forces and Wagner elements 12 Dec attacked CPC position at Kocho mine site, reportedly killing 36 rebels and capturing unknown number.

In other important developments. National Assembly 28 Dec adopted law regulating organisation of referendums in country. Opposition MP Joseph Bendounga same day said law would serve President Touadéra’s efforts to change constitution and run for third term.