CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
President Bozizé 25 Feb announced legislative and presidential elections would be held 25 April. 6 groups contributing members to the electoral commission (IEC) 13 Feb signed deal to break IEC stalemate following Jan opposition/CFC rebel coalition walkout: opposition appointed new delegates and govt agreed to IEC financial audit. CFC continues to demand resignation of IEC president Joseph Binguimalé. DDR “sensitisation” campaign started 5 Feb, quickly stalling as APRD rebels and govt exchanged accusations of embezzling DDR funds. Bozizé 30 Jan acknowledged death of CPJP leader Charles Massi but next day issued contradictory statement denying knowledge of his fate. String of LRA attacks in southeast mid-late month.
Massi family and CPJP rebels 16 Janallegedrebelleader Charles Massi, arrested 19 Dec, tortured and killed in custody; govt denied but Massi’s whereabouts unknown. Electoral preparations again faltered as opposition parties and rebel groups 15 Jan suspended participation in electoral commission and demanded resignation of CEI head Joseph Binguimalé, citing alleged bias towards President Bozizé and plans for “massive fraud”. UFVN opposition coalition suspended membership of 5 CEI representatives who refused to quit. Operations by Ugandan forces against LRA rebels in south east continued, with troops 2 Jan claiming to have killed LRA second-in-command Bok Abudema.
Govt 7 Dec launched retaliatory attack on CPJP rebel base near Ngarba on Chadian border. Charles Massi, who claims CPJP leadership, arrested again in SW Chad late Dec after his followers clashed with Chadian army. Alleged assault by bandits near Sam-Ouandja in northeast left 3 dead, including 2 from UFDR rebel group; UN MINURCAT contingent deployed 14 Dec to protect Sudanese refugees from reprisals. 31 Economic Community of Central African States military observers arrived by 15 Dec to monitor DDR, but process on hold until security situation improves. President Bozizé 13 Dec pledged to combat continuing LRA activity in southeast. FM 8 Dec met Sudanese president Bashir to discuss border security, trade. Independent Electoral Commission 17 Dec announced electoral calendar: 1st round legislative and presidential elections 18 April, 2nd round 23 May.
Ex-president Patassé, following Oct return from exile, 9 Nov confirmed intention to contest presidential elections scheduled for March 2010, 21 Nov announced he would run as independent candidate. DDR advancing slowly; Economic Community of Central African States 5 Nov agreed to deploy 31 military observers mid Dec to monitor rebel disarmament. CPJP rebel group 26 Nov attacked and occupied northern town of Ndélé, condemning govt’s failure to open negotiations with group; govt restored control later same day; 2 soldiers, 9 rebels killed. Rebels 27 Nov appointed negotiator for govt talks. Armed men 22 Nov kidnapped 2 French NGO workers in Birao, far northeast. Ongoing LRA attacks continued to fuel humanitarian emergency in southeast. Ugandan forces in CAR 17 Nov claimed to have killed senior LRA commander.
Preparations for presidential and legislative elections, set for March 2010, stalled 3 Sept when opposition coalition suspended participation in electoral commission over “unconstitutional” provisions in electoral code, calling for its annulment. Constitutional court 25 Sep called on govt to modify code. Ex-President Ange-Félix Patassé, from exile in Togo, late Aug announced intention to return and “potentially” run in elections as head of opposition MPLC, raising prospect of intra-party divisions. First sensitisation phase of DDR process ended 4 Sept after 3-week awareness-raising tour in Bangui and north. DDR challenges underscored over month, as opposition FDPC re-established check points around north’s Kabo town in protest at arrest of 2 officers. APRD commander Lakoué announced disarmament conditional on prior removal of bandits linked to Chadian general Baba Laddé from central north. Ugandan army continued operations against LRA in southeast, claimed to have captured 2 senior commanders, killed 10 fighters including Lt. Col. Santo Alit, member of LRA Juba peace team.
Govt 13 Aug launched 3-year DDR program in northwestern town of Paoua for estimated 6,000-10,000 rebels. Followed 3 Aug protests in Bangui by excombatants protesting DDR delays. Challenges to program include uncertainty over rebel numbers, lack of security due to presence of other armed groups and bandits. Launch came as media reports accuse govt of withholding DDR-earmarked funds donated by regional economic body CEMAC. President Bozizé 3 Aug promulgated controversial electoral law seen to favour incumbent, 20 Aug officially launched his KNK party. Reports of increased attacks by LRA rebels active in southeast (see Uganda).
FDPC rebel group leader Abdoulaye Miskine 3 July signed 2008 Global Peace Agreement with govt in margins of AU summit in Libya. Chad 8 July released CPJP rebel group leader Charles Massi, requiring he negotiates with govt. New electoral commission established following National Assembly’s 27 June approval of new election law; opposition protested govt requirement that commission head be appointed by govt, not elected. U.S., France pledged support for election process. Leader of opposition MLPC Martin Ziguélé, following visit to north west towns, alleged ministry of territorial administration carrying out illegal census, ruling KNK party intimidating local officials.
Former president Ange-Felix Patasse announced from Togo exile readiness to contest 2010 presidential elections. MPLC 12 June selected ex-PM Martin Ziguele as candidate. Former rebel UFDR military base in N East’s Birao town twice under attack by suspected Kara ethnic group militants: UFDR reported 27 killed in attack by some 60 gunmen 6 June, 10 militants killed in further assault 21 June. At least 18 killed in fighting between govt forces and CJPJ rebels around N West’s Ndélé town 12 June. CPJP demanded release of leader Charles Massi, arrested in Chad late May for “attempted destabilisation”. ICC 15 June ordered former Congolese opposition MLC party leader Jean Pierre Bemba to stand trial for war crimes during support for then-president Patasse in quelling attempted coup 2002-3.
Fighting continued in northwest with around 7 killed in 17 May clashes between APRD rebels and alleged Chadian bandits: APRD said clashes followed calls from villagers for action against cattle raiding. OCHA reported some 100 CAR refugees crossing daily into southern Chad due to increased insecurity in north, warned of risks to humanitarian access with onset of rainy season in coming weeks.
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