CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
President Nazarbaev 13 Oct signed into law controversial new legislation tightening govt control over religious groups: previously unknown Islamist group Jund al-Khilafah 26 Oct threatened violence unless law abolished. 2 explosions in western city Atyrau 31 Oct; suspected suicide bomber killed. Senior member of ruling Nur-Otan party Valery Proskuryakov shot dead 13 Oct. Almaty Court 4 Oct ordered 6-month suspension of opposition Communist Party for violating law on public organisations by co-founding movement to monitor ongoing strike by thousands of oil workers in West. 2 striking oil workers, 2 journalists covering strike attacked by unknown assailants during month. 4 men sentenced 7 Oct to jail terms from 6 years to life for religious extremism, armed resistance against police, during July attack in western Aktobe region.
Amid fears of rising Islamic extremism President Nazarbayev 1 Sept called for new law on religious activity; parliament 29 Sept passed controversial bill forcing religious organisations to dissolve, re-register; rights groups criticised move as limit on religious freedom. Almaty court 15 Sept ordered removal of broadcast antennas from office of independent station Stan-TV over “health risks”. Military participated in Collective Security Treaty Organisation exercises (see Tajikistan).
Following early July clashes between security forces and armed group in NW, 1 policeman killed 29 July in shootout with unidentified gunmen in Aktobe. Officials 30 Aug announced killing of individual allegedly planning “terrorist acts” in Atyrau region in SW. Continued protests by oil and gas workers over pay, conditions in W Mangistau province. Court 9 Aug sentenced lawyer advising striking workers to 6 years prison for inciting social disorder; communist party leader in W Kazakhstan fined 10 Aug for taking part in protests. Authorities 13 Aug blocked 13 foreign internet sites including LiveJournal for promoting terrorism, religious extremism. Collective Security Treaty Organisation summit in Astana discussed Kyrgyzstan, concerns over radicalisation and possible spill-over from Afghanistan.
Month saw continued protests by oil and gas workers over pay, conditions in Western Mangistau province. Police special forces 8 July reportedly attacked, arrested protesters; govt blamed unidentified political forces. 1-9 July clashes between police and armed group in Western Aktobe region, and operation in NW against militants suspected of killing 3 interior ministry officers in June left 2 officers dead, 5 wounded and at least 9 militants reportedly killed, 4 captured; contradictory explanations by govt for violence. Failed jail break 12 July in Balkhash led to 16 convicts blowing themselves up, at least 1 prison guard killed, 4 wounded. President Nazarbayev 10-21 July reportedly hospitalized in Germany for prostate surgery; amid uncertainty presidential advisor Yermukhamet Yertysbayev 25 July hinted President’s son-in-law Timur Kulibayev possible successor. Kulibayev immediately rejected speculation as “complete nonsense”.
Citing procedural technicalities, Senate 9 June blocked deployment of 4 military officers to join international forces in Afghanistan; earlier Lower House agreement to deploy- ment in May followed by alleged Taliban warning of negative consequences. Govt 30 May extradited ethnic Uighur journalist to China on terrorism charges; 9 June extradited 28 Uzbeks to Uzbekistan on anti-govt, religion-related charges; prompted criticism from Human Rights Watch. Largest copper mining company Kazakhmys secured $1.5bn loan from China during President Hu Jintao’s visit. Austria 17 June refused govt request to extradite President Nazarbayev’s former son-in-law and rival Rakhat Aliev on charges of kidnap, murder. Strike over pay and conditions in oil and gas industry continues in west.
2 bomb attacks raised fears of terrorist activity: suicide bomber 17 May killed himself, injured 3 bystanders in blast outside Aqtobe security services building. First known suicide attack in Kazakhstan; govt denied “terrorist act”, claimed bomber member of organised criminal group, arrested his wife, reportedly member of conservative religious organisation. 2 killed 24 May after car exploded outside Astana security service building; police denied suicide bombing, said “spontaneous explosion” cause; no claim of responsibility. Clashes between police and residents over illegal land seizures near Almaty 1-2 May. PM Masimov 6 May dismissed head of customs service, police arrested key customs official, following reports of smugglers operating freely along Chinese border. Govt 3 May ratified agreement allowing U.S. to transport supplies, personnel to Afghanistan. Parliament 19 May adopted law sending 4 Kazakh troops to Afghanistan as part of NATO force; prompted warning from Taliban.
President Nazarbaev 3 Apr secured landslide presidential election victory in poll heavily criticised by international observers. Election Commission 4 Apr announced 89.9% turnout with Nazarbaev taking 95.5% of votes; OSCE said polls marred by “serious irregularities”. Nazarbaev 11 Apr announced plans to create 2-party parliament by forming new pro-business party in “revolution from above”. Nazarbaev 11 Apr appointed son-in-law Timur Kulibayev to head Samruk-Kazyna fund, stock company that controls 70% of economy, fuelling suspicions he is grooming Kulibayev as his successor. 4 Apr operation to detain 3 members of organised criminal group in Almaty left 11 elite interior force agents injured. Indian state oil and gas company 16 Apr announced purchase of 25% of Satpayev block, oil rich region of Caspian Sea; Kazakhstan signed deal with India same day on export of uranium to India.
Alga and Communist opposition parties 4 March called for boycott of upcoming presidential election, resignation of President Nazarbaev. Demonstration for boycott in NE city Pavlodar disrupted 11 March by 5 men, reportedly wielding knives and thought by some observers to support govt; 3 of 5 convicted of hooliganism 29 March. Rape, murder of Kazakh woman in Almaty region sparked protests against local Kurdish community 10 March. Nazarbaev mid-month declared opposition to hijab.
President Nazarbaev 11 Feb officially registered as candidate in forthcoming presidential election, scheduled for 3 April in presidential decree issued 4 Feb, 12 Feb passed mandatory Kazakh-language exam required to run. Opposition Azat and Communist parties announced will boycott early elections, calling them breach of constitution and citing lack of time to prepare. Some 12 candidates declared intention to run. Key presidential advisor 14 Feb said no talk of successor necessary, and Nazarbaev will run again in subsequent election. Govt continued to support deportation of Uzbek refugees sought by Uzbekistan on radicalism charges; court 16 Feb denied appeal by 9 Uzbek men to remain in Kazakhstan. 4 arrested late Feb in connection with explosion outside prison in West. 4 Kazakhstani citizens reportedly detained mid-Feb in North Caucasus republic Dagestan during Russian anti-terror operations. Nazarbaev’s late Feb China visit saw important deals including uranium export, Chinese loans.
After over a month of confused debate, President Nazarbaev 31 Jan buried referendum idea proposed by parliament that would have paved way for extension of his term for 10 years. Nazarbaev instead proposed early presidential elections, in unexpected move interpreted by some observers as response to anti-govt demonstrations in Tunisia and Egypt. Jailed rights activist Yevgeny Zhovtis denied parole 18 Jan on grounds he appears impenitent; activists said decision connected to proposed referendum.
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