CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Govt hosted further talks backed by Russia, Turkey and Iran on Syrian conflict during month. President Nazarbayev 30 Jan instructed National Security Committee and govt to create “Cyber Shield” to prevent dissemination of extremist propaganda on internet and social networks, prompting criticism from rights groups. Russian President Putin during late month tour of region met with President Nazarbayev 27 Feb, consolidating ties.
Govt formed working group 11 Jan to consider redistribution of power between president and parliament, widely viewed as step setting the scene for a post-President Nazarbayev era; Nazarbayev 25 Jan said he will serve as “supreme arbiter” between branches of govt. Other indicators include return of ambassador to Russia Marat Tazhin 12 Jan to become deputy head of executive office of president, and arrests of senior officials including former head of working group, detained 2 Jan on charges of disclosing state secrets; and former head of security services (KNB), detained late Dec on charges of disclosing state secrets and abuse of office. Kazakhstan hosted Syrian peace talks in Astana 23-24 Jan; also began two-year term as first ever Central Asian non-permanent member of UNSC 1 Jan.
France cancelled extradition of Kazakh dissident Mukhtar Ablyazov to Russia 9 Dec, stating Russia’s request politically motivated. Ablyazov, charged with embezzling billions of dollars in Ukraine, Russia, and Kazakhstan, has financed opposition media and groups in Kazakhstan for almost two decades. Authorities 21 Dec announced they had detained sixteen suspected members of banned Islamic group Takfir wal-Hijra in counter-terrorism operation in Almaty, Aktobe and Atyrau regions.
Businessman Tokhtar Tuleshov sentenced to 21 years’ prison 7 Nov after being found guilty of extremism, illegal weapons possession and attempting to overthrow govt. Tuleshov arrested Jan 2016 along with others including former deputy prosecutor-general and former police chief. National Security Committee accused Tuleshov, known for links with Russia, of preparing to overthrow govt in wake of Islamic State-inspired attack in Aktobe in June, and financing nationwide protests against proposed amendments to land code in April and May. Atyrau court 28 Nov convicted two men of inciting social unrest and other charges over role in land reform protests. Following year in which long-held grievances were aired against govt in unprecedented way, and as concerns about transition of power mount, lawmakers 23 Nov passed declaration suggesting renaming capital Astana after President Nazarbayev, ahead of 25th anniversary of independence; Nazarbayev said “no need” to rename capital. Gunman convicted of July attack in Almaty in which six people were killed was sentenced to death for murder, terrorism 2 Nov; Aktobe court 28 Nov convicted 29 men of terrorism and other charges.
Energy sector continued to falter, with govt 10 Oct announcing plans to cut up to 3,500 oil industry jobs. Operations of delayed Kashagan oil field project in northern Caspian Sea resumed 12 Oct. 2,300 oil workers in Janaozen went on strike late Sept against reduced salaries. Minister of religious affairs 14 Oct called Salafi branch of Islam “destructive threat to Kazakhstan”, said ministry will target and ban Salafi-inspired extremist and terrorist organisations. Trial opened 18 Oct of 29 alleged militants who carried out attacks in Aktobe in June 2016. Trial began 31 Oct of eight alleged Islamic extremists in Karaganda.
Month saw President Nazarbayev reshuffle govt, including PM Masimov appointed head of National Security Committee, former First Deputy PM Bakyrzhan Sagintayev appointed PM. President’s daughter and former First Deputy PM Dariga Nazarbayeva appointed to Senate 13 Sept, became head of Senate Committee for Foreign Relations, Defence and Security 16 Sept.
Visiting Turkey 5 Aug, President Nazarbayev said Kazakhstan would extradite anyone who has “terrorist connections” with Fethullah Gülen, cleric blamed by Ankara for coup; also said schools financed by Gülen would be inspected. Govt 18 Aug extended until 2021 moratorium on selling and renting of land to foreigners, introduced May following April/May protests in major cities. Head of journalists’ union and chair of National Press Club put on trial on corruption charges 23 Aug; rights organisations claim charges politically motivated. Authorities 22 Aug announced arrest of four suspected members of radical group allegedly plotting terrorist attacks; 26 Aug announced arrest of Russian citizen suspected of recruiting for Islamic State (IS); Committee for National Security (KNB) 31 Aug announced detention of 21 alleged Islamic militants. Three more police died early Aug from injuries sustained during 18 July attack in Almaty, bringing total killed to nine. Five Central Asian FMs met with U.S. Sec State Kerry in Washington DC 3 Aug under multilateral C5+1 format; discussed security, economic integration, counter-terrorism, climate change.
Gunman killed four police and two civilians, and injured seventeen others in 18 July attack in Almaty; 26-year-old suspect Ruslan Kulikbayev from Kyzylorda captured alive. President Nazarbayev described incident as terrorist attack, head of National Security Committee (KNB) Vladimir Zhumakanov said Kulikbayev had previous convictions and was radicalised by Salafis in prison, however Minister of Information Dauren Abayev 18 July played down Islamist links. Zhumakanov 19 July said legislation on combatting terrorism and extremism will be tightened and those fighting abroad will be deprived of citizenship. Court in Aktobe 12 July convicted twelve people for planning travel to Syria to fight. Petropavlovsk court 19 July sentenced man to seven year’s jail for joining Islamic State (IS) in Syria. Hundreds of oil industry workers went on strike 28 July over pay cuts in Zhanaozen, Mangistau region.
Calm following nationwide protests in late April-May against sale of land to foreigners broken with armed attack by alleged Islamic State supporters in Aktobe in NW 5 June and subsequent manhunt; three soldiers, five civilians, eighteen attackers killed. Authorities reported security forces 26 June arrested group of suspects, one of whom blew himself up. Interior ministry claimed land protests funded by coupplotting officials from south with links to Russia – not by West as alleged earlier. Kazakhstan elected to UNSC for two years 28 June.
Protests that began in Atyrau 24 April against controversial changes to Land Code and demanding prohibition of sale of state-owned land to foreigners, escalated dramatically and continued throughout month: in Janaozen, Kyzylorda and Almaty 1 May, 4 May in Uralsk and 21 May across country. Protesters confronted riot police 1 May; several hundred protesters and local and international journalists detained 21 May, with heavy security presence reported in major urban areas. Protests prompted resignations of minister of national economy 5 May and minister of agriculture 6 May. President Nazarbayev 6 May put moratorium on amendments to Land Code until 2017 and created by decree new ministry of information and communication.
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