CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Amid increasing anxiety over impact of fighting in Afghanistan on Central Asian security, Russia and Tajikistan presidents met 6 Oct to discuss fighting along Tajikistan-Afghan border. Russia announced it would place transport and attack helicopters at Tajikistan’s Ayni airfield near capital Dushanbe. Govt 12 Oct announced civil servants prohibited from attending Friday prayers, amid ongoing crackdown on political opposition and on religious expression. UNHCHR 2 Oct expressed concern over govt’s Sept ban of opposition Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan.
Deepening concerns over political stability after General Abdukhalim Nazarzoda, former deputy defence minister and previously member of United Tajik Opposition which signed peace agreement in 1997 following civil war, killed amid accusations of planned coup. Unknown assailants 4 Sept opened fire at police station in Vakhdat town and police patrols near Dushanbe leaving at least 22 dead, including eight police. Govt said attacks ordered by Nazarzoda, accused him of planning coup. Attacks followed by clashes between assailants and police near Dushanbe airport; Nazarzoda reportedly fled to Romit Gorge region with unspecified number of supporters, most of whom killed in series of skirmishes. Security forces 16 Sept announced Nazarzoda killed in search operation. Govt said Nazarzoda was member of Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan’s (IRPT) which was banned late Aug amid opposition crackdown; IRPT denied. Thirteen IRPT members arrested 16-17 Sept, govt 29 Sept declared IRPT terrorist organisation. Collective Security Treaty Organisation summit in Dunshabe 15 Sept discussed security threats related to Islamic State, security of Tajik-Afghan border; Moscow reportedly said it will provide further military support on border if necessary or requested.
President Rahmon 8 Aug signed new law depriving Tajiks of citizenship for joining/fighting for terrorist organisations abroad. Opposition crackdown continued: Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan’s (IRPT) publishing house closed 13 Aug for not meeting national “sanitary-epidemiological norms”; IRPT claimed targeted campaign against them. Justice ministry 28 Aug banned IRPT, citing insufficient number of members to qualify as officially registered party; gave party ten days to halt activities. Deputy leader of opposition in exile detained in Moldova 11 Aug on Tajik govt request. Afghan authorities apologised after two mortar shells launched in Afghanistan 13 Aug fell in Khatlon province in SW of Tajikistan.
Authorities reported they arrested two men planning terrorist attacks. Russia late June supplied 120 armoured vehicles specialised for mountainous terrain to 201st Russian military base; began training 1,000 Tajik soldiers.
New video released 19 June featuring former special forces (OMON) commander Gulmurod Khalimov, whose defection to Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIL) was reported late May, reiterating threats to bring jihad to Tajikistan; govt blocked several websites in response. Joint military exercises continued: OMON held joint anti-terrorist exercises with Chinese special police units 5 June. Dozens of Islamic Renaissance Party (IRP) members resigned during month; IRP blamed increase in harassment, including from pro-govt newspaper linking IRP to terrorism; IRP’s political council 10 June warned leader Mukhiddin Kabiri to remain in Europe for fear of arrest in Tajikistan. Russian Central Bank reported 44% drop in remittances to Tajikistan in first quarter of 2015.
Former special forces (OMON) commander Gulmurod Khalimov, who disappeared 23 April, featured in Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIL) video 27 May saying he had joined group, criticising govt and threatening to bring jihad to Tajikistan. Amid growing concerns about intensified Taliban fighting in N Afghanistan near Tajik border, Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) sent 2,500 Rapid Reaction Force troops to border area for exercises 12-20 May. Court late April jailed ten alleged members of banned Islamic group in Sughd region.
Amid heightened concerns over extremism, govt 13 April announced ban on citizens under 35 undertaking hajj pilgrimage to Mecca; followed 27 March call by imams, encouraged by govt, to dissolve Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan. During Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) meeting in Dushanbe 2 April to discuss threat from Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIL) in Afghanistan, FM Sirojiddin Aslov expressed dissatisfaction over existing attempts to strengthen Tajik-Afghan border, called on CSTO to provide more practical measures. Russian daily Kommersant 3 April reported Russia planning $1.23bn in military-technical assistance to Tajikistan. Russian defence minister 16 April reiterated support for Tajikistan against IS, threats from Afghanistan.
President Rahmon’s party 1 March won parliamentary elections which OSCE said “failed to meet basic democratic standards”. Atmosphere of harassment against opposition intensified: alleged Group 24 opposition party member sentenced to 17.5 years’ jail 4 March; Group 24 leader Umarali Kuvatov murdered 5 March in Istanbul; two men jailed for 16.5 years 13 March for having offensive pictures of president, attending Group 24 meeting. President’s son Rustam appointed head of anti-corruption agency 16 March. Large scale military exercises held along Afghan border 11-14 March; Russian news agency 18 March claimed 1,000 militants, including Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan Islamic State supporters, only 60-80km from Tajik border.
Deputy head of State Committee for National Security said Pakistan early Feb handed over six Tajik citizens alleged to be Jamaat Ansarullah members. Supreme Court 17 Feb sentenced thirteen alleged Jamaat Ansarullah members to jail.
Tajik citizens fighting for Islamic State in Syria released video 4 Jan threatening Tajikistan with jihad. Ten suspected members of Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan arrested 7 Jan near Dushanbe with alleged cell leader. New army base to monitor militants near Afghan border reportedly being built in Kulyob district. Two border guards wounded 18 Jan while preventing armed group crossing over Afghan border.
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