CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Tajikistan delayed ratifying agreement on Russia’s 201st military base near Dushanbe, reportedly pushing Russia for financial support for hydropower projects, more military assistance; Moscow signalled Tajikistan has one month to ratify agreement. Reports of increasing Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) activity in northern Afghanistan, affecting Tajikistan. U.S. Under Sec State Robert Blake late Feb dismissed idea of “imminent Islamic militant threat” to Central Asia, but said Tajikistan vulnerable, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan worried by possibility of militants entering Ferghana Valley via Tajikistan.
Visiting U.S. Asst Sec State Robert Blake met with President Rakhmon 20 Feb, reiterated that U.S. troops leaving Afghanistan will not transit through Tajikistan; UK mid-Feb continued negotiations on transit option through Tajikistan for its equipment. Blake also called for free and fair Nov elections. Opposition figures reporting receiving anonymous death threats. Former Tajik PM Abdullojonov detained in Ukraine on international arrest warrant after arriving from U.S., wanted for alleged involvement in 1996 assassination attempt on President Rakhmon, plus other offences. Border guards killed several Afghan nationals suspected of trafficking drugs.
Interior Minister 18 Jan acknowledged presence in at least 3 regions of small groups of terrorists previously fighting in Afghanistan. Announcement followed week-long special operation against Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) in western Sughd province near Uzbek border, resulting in 9 arrests, seizure of guns and ammunition; 1 IMU member, 1 policeman killed. 6 suspected IMU arrested in south late month. Soldier died in south 1 Jan during a gun battle with 20 intruders attempting to enter Tajikistan from Afghanistan. Russian FM Lavrov visited Dushanbe 17 Jan to jump-start implementation of agreement on extension of Russia’s military presence in Tajikistan for another 30 years; in return, Tajikistan asking Russia to lighten migration rules for Tajiks, cancel custom taxes on Russian oil, help modernise Tajik army, invest in hydropower projects. Facebook and RFE/RL websites again blocked.
Country joined WTO 10 Dec. Tajik, Russian and Afghan police carried out joint drug raids 10 Dec in several Afghan villages. Tajik communications service 21 Dec instructed internet providers to block access to 131 websites, including major social network sites; decision reportedly annulled 26 Dec. Facebook not on list of sites, but inaccessible since late Nov.
Russia and Tajikistan 5 Oct signed agreement allowing Russian troops to remain at military base in Tajikistan until 2042; U.S. ambassador said U.S.-Tajikistan ties not affected. Court 24 Oct ordered closure of prominent rights group Amparo. Amnesty International urged President Rakhmon to take measures against widespread use of torture in pre-trial detention facilities. 2 Tajik citizens arrested in Afghanistan for alleged IMU membership and planning terrorist attacks in Afghanistan. Islamic Renaissance Party leader said support for party increasing in Gorno- Badakhshan, site of controversial military operation against alleged militants in July.
President Rakhmon 19 Sept visited restive eastern region Gorno-Badakhshan, site of July-Aug special security operation that left 70 dead; his meeting with residents, during which he defended deployment of military, criticised local law-enforcement officials, broadcast on national TV. EU 7 Sept expressed concern over east, demanded govt allow access to international organizations, diplomatic missions; also called for “transparent investigation” into murders of Islamic Renaissance Party member Sabzali Mamadrizoev in July, former rebel commander Imomnazar Imomnazarov in Aug. Supreme Court 11 Sept jailed 15 alleged members of banned Islamist group Jamaat Ansarullah; defendants arrested in eastern Rasht area and Pakistan. Dushanbe and Moscow 17 Sept discussed extension of Russian lease on military base. Russian troops 19 Sept started military exercises near Dushanbe.
Local Gorno Badakhshan Autonomous Province (GBAO) rebels reportedly disarmed early month as part of peace deal; rebel leader Ayombekov 12 Aug surrendered to central authorities demanded free and fair trial for 21July murder of GBAO head of State Committee for National Security (GKNB) Nazarov. Tensions flared again late month in GBAO capital Khorog: Imomnazar Imomnazarov, former rebel commander also suspect in Nazarov’s murder, killed 22 Aug, govt denied involvement; thousands gathered in Khorog 22-23 Aug to demand explanation for killing, attempted to storm administrative building, 2 demonstrators reportedly injured after police fired warning shots. Govt troops 24 Aug began partial withdrawal from GBAO after deal reached between govt, local civil society activists. Islamic Renaissance Party (IRP) Vahdat regional office torched 10 Aug by unidentified group. Prosecutor General accused IRP members of “grave crimes” including fomenting Khorog unrest, membership in banned Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and Hizb ut-Tahrir; IRP said allegations attempt to shut down party. Trial of 15 suspected members of banned Islamist organization Jamaat Ansarullah began 30 Aug.
Month saw escalating fighting in Gorno Badakhshan Autonomous Province (GBAO), centred around regional capital Khorog: govt 24 July imposed communications blackout, launched large-scale security operation targeting fighters loyal to former opposition fighter and Ishkoshim border-guard chief Tolib Ayo- mbekov; accused Ayombekov of ordering 21 July killing of GBAO head of State Committee for National Security (GKNB) General Nazarov, running drug and tobacco smuggling; Ayombekov said Nazarov’s killing an “accident”, argued govt wants to purge region of former field commanders; govt stated 48 killed in operation, including 30 rebels, 17 govt troops and 1 civilian, further 40 rebels arrested, including 8 Afghan citizens. Govt 25 July called ceasefire, began negotiations with rebels; President Rahmon offered amnesty to rebels who surrender, excluding 3 accused of Nazarov murder and Ayombekov. During 25 July discussions with President Rakhmon, Afghan President Karzai promised to deploy additional troops along border. Chief prosecutor for district near Khorog injured 24 July in car bombing. Islamic Revival Party (IRP) 30 July claimed regional head Sabzali Mamadrizoyev murdered following detention by security forces in Khorog. Authorities 16 July announced arrest of suspect in June murder of president’s brother-in-law Safarov.
Police 14 June announced President Rahmon’s brother-in-law shot dead in Dushanbe. Military 9-14 June hosted Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) military exercises focusing on counter-terrorism, 18-29 June participated in drills with U.S. forces (see Kyrgyzstan). Authorities 20-22 June detained 3 Kyrgyz from Batken for allegedly smuggling mercury (see Kyrgyzstan). Dushanbe court 26 June jailed 12 alleged Hizb ut-Tahrir members.
Supreme Court 3 May ruled Islamist Jamaat Ansarullah extremist group, banned organisation. Court 30 May jailed 17 suspected Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) members. Officials 11 May announced arrest of suspected regional IMU leader Zilmurod Eshonkhonov, 2 associates in southern Khatlon Province. UN special rapporteur on torture Juan Méndez 18 May reported police, prosecutors using violence as “main investigatory tool”. Former Popular Front leaders 16 May announced plans for new Popular Front Without Weapons party to help unite political opposition. Ethnic Uzbek journalist and outspoken critic of Uzbek, Tajik govts Salim Shamsiddinov attacked 5 May by unknown assailants in Qurghon-Teppa.
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