CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Lower Chamber of Parliament increased fines for unsanctioned demonstrations 1 June. Unusual outbreak of demonstrations in Khorog, Gorno-Badakhshan region 10 and 15 June. Possible cause judicial corruption; two judges reported beaten, regional court and prosecutor’s office damaged. Lower House of Parliament 15 June approved bill banning children from attending mosques amid concerns of growing radicalisation of youth; prominent Islamic figure Hoji Akbar Turajonzoda said move “openly against the will of God”. Continued arrests of alleged Islamic radicals, including BBC journalist Urunboy Usmanov, detained 15 June on suspicion of membership of Hizb ut-Tahrir; BBC denied charges, demanded immediate release. Govt 20 June announced 2 suspected Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan members killed during operation in Rasht district. Tajik-Russian talks over new Afghan border cooperation 21 June produced no breakthrough; scheduled visit of Russian defence minister postponed amid growing bilateral tensions.
Court 4 May sentenced 5 people to 30 years or life in prison for role in Sept 2010 jailbreak; all had previous convictions on terrorism charges. Interior minister 15 May said army killed 2 members of banned Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan militant group in Rasht valley; both had escaped during Sept jail break. Freedom House 2 May named Turkmenistan as one of world’s 10 worst countries for press freedom. 5 May media reports suggested Russia in talks with Tajikistan to deploy 3,000 troops along border with Afghanistan. Govt price controls in Dushanbe exacerbated food crisis. Authorities late May ordered internet providers block access to website of Akbar Turajonzoda, popular Islamic preacher and govt critic.
Interior ministry said security forces 14 Apr killed militant leader Abdullo Rakhimov and at least 16 others in Rasht valley; group allegedly behind Sept 2010 attack on military convoy in Kamarob gorge. Former United Tajik Opposition militant Shokh Iskandarov, believed to be responsible for govt’s recent military successes in Rasht valley, appointed region’s deputy police chief. Kyrgyz-Tajik relations remain tense after series of border incidents: 8 Apr attacks on Kyrgyz trucks by group of young Tajiks, 18 Apr protests over detention of Kyrgyz citizen previous day by local Tajik officials. Govt continued attacks on religious expression, demolishing mosque in southern provincial capital Qurghonteppa over alleged violation of new law barring people under 18 from public worship. Severe energy rationing lifted 17 Apr; followed unusual protest 8 Apr near energy supplier HQ.
Tensions with Moscow increased after negotiations over deployment of Russian border patrol mission to Tajik-Afghan border ended in stalemate 5 March. Russia late month increased custom duties for oil exports to Tajikistan; analysts suggest Russia seeking military base in Tajikistan. Mirzokhuja Akhmadov, UTO veteran and former police colonel in Rasht, 1 March said govt still conducting anti-terrorist operations in Tajikabad, Nurabad; was reportedly questioned by authorities 8 March over suspected involvement in Sept 2010 attack on military convoy in Kamarob Gorge. Tajikistan 14 March cancelled Dushanbe-Khujand train route that runs thorough Uzbek territory, deepening transport blockade between countries. Uzbekistan 13 March declared opposition to Pakistan’s plan to import hydropower from Tajikistan through Afghanistan, claiming violation of international laws as it ignores demands of downstream states in region. Amid fears of imminent energy crisis govt 20 March reintroduced widespread electricity rationing. In 28 March meeting with President Rahmon, Iranian President Ahmadinejad pledged to help complete Sangtuda-2 hydropower plant.
Govt harassment of opposition, crackdown on religious extremism continued. At 11 Feb National Security Council meeting President Rakhmon identified Islamic radicalism as major threat, called for continued return of students studying at Islamic schools abroad, increased monitoring of mosques. Following 7 Feb beating of key party figure, opposition Islamic Renaissance Party accused govt of corruption, trampling on rights, attempting to intimidate opposition. Authorities 3 Feb reportedly detained suspects in series of Jan planned terror attacks on state security, police buildings in city of Khujand. Interior Ministry official found dead in hotel room 5 Feb; amid speculation on possible causes govt reported heart failure, independent investigation said evidence of suicide.
Counterinsurgency operations continued in Rasht Valley. 4 Jan raid killed 7 members and apprehended one of group led by former civil war militant commander Ali Bedaki; Bedaki among dead. Media 18 Jan reported authorities conducting operations against another group led by Mukhammadkarim Abrakhimov in Rasht; govt denied. Govt 24 Jan announced had foiled 2 planned car bomb attacks in northern city Khojent. Court 22 Jan sentenced alleged leader of banned Islamist movement Hizb ut-Tahrir, Yusuf Khafizov, to 18 years in prison; 7 other members also jailed. Religious Affairs Committee 10 Jan announced compilation of 52 approved sermon topics to be used by Imams for Friday prayers, angering clerics and members of Islamic Renaissance Party, who claim govt censorship.
Continued crackdown on banned radical Islamic organizations in northern Sughd province. 15 suspected members of Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) arrested over month, 10 alleged Hizb-ut Tahrir activists arrested early month. Troops launched reconnaissance operation in village in Baljuvon region south of Dushanbe and close to volatile Rasht valley after 3 law enforcement officers killed in 1 Dec clash with armed militants in area. 8 fugitives of Aug high-security prison break arrested in northern Afghanistan 19 Dec.
Govt declared campaign against militants in eastern Rasht district almost complete with over 20 killed, 30 arrested or surrendered. Communication blackout of area continued. Govt accused followers of banned Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) of 3 Sept bombing of police station in northern town of Khujand; claimed IMU targeted in 2 operations in north- ern Isfara district late Oct, reported 5 militants killed, several arrested. Security along border with Afghanistan strengthened after Afghan authorities early month warned against possible Taliban incursions. Govt crackdown on perceived sources of Islamic radicalisation: over 600 students enrolled at religious schools abroad returned home after President Rakhmon claimed they risked indoctrination by radical groups; 28 mosques shut down in eastern Gorno-Badakhshan region 19 Nov for failing to register; opposition Islamic Renaissance Party ordered to shut down prayer house on its premises. 9 Hizb-ut- Tahrir activists arrested 18-22 Nov in north.
Ongoing govt campaign against militants in Rasht district, site of 19 Sept ambush of 80-strong military convoy. Govt early month denied military and media reports that 34 troops killed in incidents in region, including in military helicopter crash; claimed only 7 killed due to technical failure. Scarce information about ongoing operations from state-controlled media since govt cut communication with Rasht in beginning of campaign. OSCE media watchdog midmonth voiced concern over media pressure after govt threatened to punish journalists criticising campaign, blocked printing of several newspapers, cut access to websites of independent outlets. President Rah- mon 12 Oct offered amnesty to all militants who cease fighting; govt mid-month claimed 2 key field commanders and 27 militants surrendered weapons. Rahmon 26 Oct denied reports of incursions from al-Qaeda, Taliban; said fighting in Rasht led by Tajiks, claimed Tajik-Afghan border well protected. 14 suspected terrorists captured in connection to 3 Sept suicide bombing of police station in north. Govt intensifying pressure over Tajik students enrolled at Islamic universities abroad to return home; late month discovered 20 unregistered religious schools in south.
String of deadly incidents over month signalled growing instability. Explosion at police station in north 3 Sept killed 2, wounded 25 police; previously unknown militant group Jamaat Ansarullah in Tajikistan claimed responsibility. Blast at Dushanbe nightclub 5 Sept wounded at least 7. Govt 11 Sept claimed 20 militants killed after troops clashed with Taliban fighters on border with Afghanistan. Secret negotiations between govt and former United Tajik Opposition (UTO) leaders in Garm 15 Sept aimed to defuse possible clashes. At least 25 killed in ambush of 80-strong military convoy 19 Sept in Rasht district. Govt alleged UTO commanders from 1992-1997 civil war Mullo Abdullo and Ali Bedak and militants who escaped from high-security prison 23 Aug responsible for attack. Govt 22 Sept said at least 5 UTO fighters killed in counter-terrorism operation; later reported many others detained. 2 fugitives of Aug prison break reported killed, 7 detained over month.
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