CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Authorities 23 Aug announced 25 prisoners, including Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan militants and opposition members, escaped from high-security prison in Dushanbe, killing at least 5 guards. Escapees include Afghan, Russian nationals. Senior security official 20 Aug dismissed Kyrgyz concerns over infiltration of Islamic militants from Tajikistan into Kyrgyzstan. Madrasah leader and students in district near Dushanbe arrested early month for alleged illegal religious activity. 5 newspapers banned 5 Aug for alleged criticism of President. Hizb-ut-Tahrir activist sentenced to 14 years’ jail in north 14 Aug.
Security officials 24 July announced arrest of 6 followers of rebel Mahmud Khudoyberdiyev this year; leader and supporters sought for role in 1998 armed incursion in Sogd region. Interior Ministry late month announced arrest of alleged Uzbek al-Qaeda operative in first case charging Central Asian citizen with al-Qaeda membership. Authorities tightened security in Dushanbe after Supreme Court 7 July handed down prison sentences of up to 30 years to 49 associates, including 2 sons, of late senior govt minister Mirzo Ziyoev for formation and participation in armed groups. 2 alleged members of Islamic Jihad Union detained early month, extradited to Kyrgyzstan. 10 alleged Hizb-ut-Tahrir activists sentenced to 3-15 years in northern city of Khujand 30 July.
Govt held UN-sponsored international water conference 8 June in Dushanbe, discussed water security, energy with Iranian President Ahmadinejad on sidelines. Iran 17 June threatened to halt Uzbek rail traffic through its territory unless latter stops blocking transit of cargo to Tajikistan. Continued standoff on railroad traffic seen as Uzbek response to controversial Tajik hydropower projects. Uzbekistan 15 June notified Tajikistan of intentions to close 1 of 3 railroad connections between countries allegedly due to economic unviability. Supreme Court 24 June sentenced 4 alleged members of banned Islamic organisation Hizb ut-Tahrir to 18 years’ prison. Govt began investigation into 2 explosions in Dushanbe 24 June.
Court 18 May handed down 6 month to 6 year prison sentences to 36 people for membership of banned Islamic group Jamaat ut-Tabligh; several other alleged followers received suspended sentences. President Rahmon 12 May reinstated State Committee on Religious Affairs to oversee country’s religious organisations. During visit to country, Iranian Defence Minister 13 May said Tehran ready to mediate between Tajikistan, Uzbekistan on contentious hydropower construction projects.
During early month visit, UNSG Ban expressed concern over dispute on construction of Rogun hydropower plant opposed by Uzbekistan for fears of water shortages; urged cooperative use of resources and against unilateral action. Public campaign on buying Rogun shares halted 15 Apr amid pressure from donors, reports of campaign’s negative macroeconomic impact. After 7 Apr violent ousting of President Bakiyev from power in Kyrgyzstan, authorities rejected possibility for similar events at home; said domestic corruption lower than in Kyrgyzstan.
President Rakhmon’s People’s Democratic Party won 55 of 63 parliament seats in 28 Feb elections denounced by western observers for failing to meet basic democratic standards. Coming second with 2 seats, largest opposition party Islamic Renaissance Party threatened to challenge result in court. 56 Tablighi Jamaat members sentenced to jail in Dushanbe and given large fines 10 March.
Parliamentary elections held 28 Feb expected to yield victory for President Rakhmon’s People’s Democratic Party in vote denounced by opposition, OSCE observer mission as marred by serious irregularities. Campaign against alleged Islamists continued: suspected al-Qaeda member sentenced to 8 years in jail 9 Feb; 4 members of Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) sentenced to 8-30 years in jail in northern Sogd region 14 Feb; 12 Hizb ut-Tahrir (HT) activists received 8-14 year prison terms in Dushanbe 17 Feb.
Tajik court 6 Jan sentenced Uzbek man to 20 years in prison for spying on country’s hydropower projects, in further sign of straining Tajik-Uzbek relations over construction of state Roghun hydropower plant, opposed by Uzbekistan over concerns of water shortages. Govt denied reports of public discontent over govt pressure to buy shares in Roghun power plant. 10 Hizb-ut-Tahrir members sentenced to 8-15 years in prison in Khujand 27 Jan. In perceived effort to silence media ahead of 28 Feb parliamentary elections, defamation lawsuits filed late Jan against 4 newspapers; libel verdict against another newspaper upheld.
56 defendants, detained April and May, went on trial 10 Dec on charges of belonging to Jamaat ut-Tabligh Sunni missionary group, accused of religious extremism. Criminal case opened 15 Dec against 49 associates of late senior govt minister Mirzo Ziyoev, formerly top military commander of United Tajik Opposition during civil war; 8 group members allegedly affiliated with Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan.
At 18 Nov Dushanbe conference on Ferghana region, Tajikistan pressed for demining of borders between Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan; Uzbekistan said cannot occur under current Afghanistan security conditions. Govt 11 Nov introduced electricity rationing after nationwide power breakdown; negotiations continued with Uzbekistan on transit fees for electricity imports from Turkmenistan. President Rakhmon 5 Nov signed decree granting amnesty to some 10,000 prisoners; unknown if political prisoners, those convicted of religious extremism to be included. Detentions of alleged IMU members, supporters continued, with 3 women, 1 juvenile arrested in Sughd region early Nov. Govt issued decree obliging public to pay for information obtained from govt; journalists claimed impediment to free speech.
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