CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
President Rakhmon appealed for more foreign aid, citing decreased aluminium and cotton prices. Govt, public protested recent violent murders of Tajik migrants in Russia. Unannounced, temporary early Dec border closure by Uzbekistan caused tensions; Uzbekistan later in month cut gas supplies to Tajikistan by 45%, doubled price of gas.
Kyrgyz border troops 24 Nov expelled some 20 Tajik farmers attempting to divert irrigation water in southern Batken oblast. 23 Nov confrontation between Kyrgyz border guards and 50 Tajiks grazing cattle in Kyrgyzstan resulted in 1 guard being assaulted and disarmed. Govt 19 Nov reported cotton harvests significantly below targets.
President Rakhmon engineered removal of powerful renegade chief of local organised crime department Col. Mirzokhoja Akhmadov, implicated in Feb shooting of special police unit (OMON) commander in Garm. UN appeal for emergency assistance, over possibly severe winter food shortages, so far met limited response.
Interior Ministry 23 Sept issued arrest warrant for exiled opposition leader; charges include insulting president. Russian electricity company RAO UES 2 Sept confirmed will build 3 hydropower plants in Tajikistan, following Aug announcements of planned Chinese investment in the sector. Govt 2 Sept announced resumption of power rationing due to shortages.
At 28 Aug Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Dushanbe, concern among Central Asian members focused on relations with Russia in wake of Georgia crisis; in final statement states urged resolution “peacefully, through dialogue”, made no reference to Russian recognition of South Ossetia, Abkhazia independence (see Georgia). WFP pledged $10m food supply for coming year, citing famine risk after significant food, fuel price rises since Aug 2007.
Head of supreme court 16 July accused Uzbek security forces of orchestrating June 2007 explosion that damaged court building. Accusation followed sentencing of suspect for role in blast; Uzbekistan reportedly refuses to hand over 2 other suspects. Journalists 18 July rejected draft code of conduct. Increased govt pressure on RFE/RL as govt called for criminal investigation into “insulting” coverage of first family.
Debate over stability of President Rahmon power base continued: late month state footage purportedly showed Rahmon’s brother-in-law, not seen since rumoured 2 May shooting by Rahmon’s son. 200-500 protested 18 June in eastern Gorno-Badakhshan region over troop build up on nearby Afghan border. Tajik-Gazprom 10 June reportedly signed $500m gas exploration deal. Court 19 June sentenced 3 Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan branch members for 18-23 years for terrorism, Taliban support.
Reports President Rahmon’s brother-in-law shot dead 2 May by Rahmon’s son fuelled speculation of succession struggle, govt instability. Senior officials called on Dushanbe residents to “voluntarily” give 50% May-June salaries for hydroelectric construction; govt agencies, enterprises instructed to withhold funds. 3 reportedly killed in clashes between security services, alleged drug smugglers in Kulyab city 27 May; at least 2 of 9 arrested linked to leadership of former pro-govt militia Popular Front. World Bank approved $6.5m energy assistance project 2 May following winter’s chronic shortages. Power rationing ended 19 May.
Diplomatic tensions with Kyrgyzstan heightened after late-March water disputes at border, involving hundreds of Tajiks, Kyrgyz border guards. Govt admitted 8 Apr to having provided false data to IMF to secure loans for agriculture sector. Independent radio station Imruz closed 8 Apr for reporting critically on internal Tajik affairs.
IMF demanded government repay $47m loans, accused Tajik National Bank of supplying doctored economic data. Supreme Court 11 March labelled Hizb ut-Tahrir “extremist organisation”.
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