Clashes with police in easternmost Gorno-Badakhshan region turned deadly, while govt participated in 17th EU-Central Asia summit. Protests 25 Nov erupted in Khorugh city in Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region following police raid in which man sought by police was injured and later died; protesters same day rallied outside regional administration building, leading to clashes with police that left at least one dead and several wounded; protests continued 26-27 Nov before officials and protesters reportedly struck agreement 28 Nov. EU foreign policy chief 22 Nov met FMs of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in Tajik capital Dushanbe for 17th EU-Central Asia Ministerial meeting; parties same day issued joint communiqué that reaffirmed support for “strong, ambitious and forward-looking partnership”, noted “the importance of progressing on the rule of law, democracy, governance, gender equality and universal human rights”, and cited concerns over “regional repercussions of developments in Afghanistan”. Ahead of meeting, NGO Human Rights Watch 19 Nov raised concern that “authorities harass and imprison government’s critics”. U.S. embassy to Tajikistan 9 Nov confirmed that 191 Afghan evacuees, including 143 pilots, would be relocated to U.S. after fleeing Afghanistan following collapse of Kabul govt in Aug; flight reportedly departed next day.

Concerns persisted over tensions between govt and Taliban in Afghanistan. Russian foreign ministry 1 Oct voiced concern about “growing tension in Tajik-Afghan relations against the background of the mutually acrimonious statements by the leaders of both countries”, indicating build-up of Taliban fighters and Tajikistan’s armed forces on respective sides of border. Reports 28 Oct surfaced that China will finance construction of law enforcement outpost in eastern Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Province in eastern Tajikistan, at border with Afghanistan. Russian FM Sergei Lavrov 29 Oct held telephone conversation with FM Sirojiddin Muhriddin during which pair “confirmed the decision to coordinate efforts on issues related to the situation in Afghanistan”. Muhriddin 30 Oct hosted chairperson of Parliamentary Assembly of Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, Margaret Sederfelt, and reportedly raised “alarming situation on the border” with Afghanistan.

Authorities continued to express concern about threat to regional security arising from Afghanistan. Dozens of Afghan women 14 Sept rallied outside Afghanistan’s embassy in capital Dushanbe to protest Taliban govt. Border official 22 Sept reportedly confirmed: “We see certain security threats from the other side of the border” in Afghanistan, amid reports that Tajik militants associated with Taliban plan to return to country. In pre-recorded speech at UN General Assembly, President Rahmon 23 Sept warned of “serious threat to regional security and stability” emanating from Afghanistan. Lower chamber of parliament 9 Sept approved bill proposing amnesty for some 16,000 people, including prisoners and those suspected or accused of crimes. Foreign ministry 14 Sept issued verbal protest to U.S. ambassador after U.S. President Biden, who was commenting on U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, said: “If we were in Tajikistan and pulled up a C-130 and said we’re going to let … anybody who was involved with being sympathetic to us to get on the plane, you’d have people hanging in the wheel as well”, potentially implying that many people currently based in Tajikistan would also be desperate to leave country on U.S. airplane; foreign ministry said president’s remarks “do not correspond to the spirit of friendship and partnership”.

Following Taliban’s takeover of major Afghan cities, country faced influx of Afghan military aircraft and forces; meanwhile, border tensions with Kyrgyzstan persisted. Presidents of five Central Asian states – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – 6 Aug met in Turkmenbashi city, Turkmenistan, to discuss range of issues, including regional cooperation and “earliest possible settlement of the situation in neighboring Afghanistan”. Kyrgyz, Russian and Tajik armed forces 10 Aug concluded joint military exercises close to Afghan border, held amid “threat of penetration of radical terrorist groups into the border countries of the Central Asian region”. Following Taliban’s seizure of major Afghan cities including capital Kabul (see Afghanistan), reports mid-month surfaced that dozens of Afghan military aircraft and hundreds of soldiers crossed borders into Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan; following talks with Pakistan FM Shah Mahmood Qureshi, President Rahmon 25 Aug called for “inclusive [Afghan] government with the participation of all ethnic minorities, especially the Tajiks of Afghanistan”. Meanwhile, Kyrgyz border force 23 Aug announced officials held talks with Tajik counterparts in Kyrgyzstan’s Batken region to discuss new flare-up; talks held following incident in which unknown individuals attacked Kyrgyz cars when reports surfaced that Tajik authorities had begun construction work at disputed Golovnoi water facility, scene of deadly escalation in April; construction reportedly halted after talks. Delegation to Tajik-Uzbek border demarcation commission 24-29 Aug held talks with Uzbek counterparts. Ahead of 30-year anniversary of country’s independence on 9 Sept, President Rahmon 30 Aug proposed amnesty for some 16,000 people, including prisoners and those suspected or accused of crimes.

Skirmishes broke out on Tajik-Kyrgyz border while instability in Afghanistan continued to raise security concerns. Tajik and Kyrgyz forces 8 July reportedly exchanged gunfire along border in Leilek district, Batken region, killing one Kyrgyz border guard; guards 24 July reportedly exchanged fire on border between Sughd region and Kyrgyzstan’s Batken oblast. Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Parliamentary Assembly 1 July convened in capital Dushanbe and expressed concern over intensity of fighting in Afghanistan. FM Sirojiddin Muhriddin 1 July met U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken in U.S. capital Washington where pair discussed situation in Afghanistan and Blinken “affirmed the U.S. commitment to Tajikistan’s security, stability, and territorial integrity”. President Rahmon 5 July ordered 20,000 reserve officers to Afghan border. After Russian FM Sergei Lavrov 7 July expressed willingness to use capabilities of Russian military base on Tajikistan’s border with Afghanistan “to prevent any aggressive impulses”, govt same day requested CSTO support and assistance to strengthen Tajik-Afghan border, two thirds of which govt says is under Taliban control. Deputy head of emergencies committee 23 July said govt was preparing to receive up to 100,000 Afghan refugees.

Amid ongoing tensions with Kyrgyzstan, sides struck new agreement to stabilise border; concerns rose over border security with Afghanistan. Following deadliest fighting on Kyrgyz-Tajik border in years in April, Kyrgyz authorities 4 June announced they had bolstered border security presence after observing that Tajikistan had violated past agreements by installing container and deploying military personnel and equipment on unmarked segment of border in Kyrgyz’s Chon-Alai district in southern Osh region; Tajik officials same day dismissed concerns. Kyrgyz and Tajik officials 5 June struck new nine-point agreement, including provisions to withdraw troops and military equipment from border and relocate respective border posts 3km from border; Kyrgyz authorities next day withdrew reinforcements after reporting that Tajik side removed container. Heads of Tajikistan’s northern Sughd region and Kyrgyzstan’s southern Batken region 16 June held meeting to discuss border issues, reportedly forging agreement on water distribution. During 28-29 June official visit to capital Dushanbe, Kyrgyzstan President Japarov described late-April military escalation as “heavy test” for both countries. Meanwhile, Head of Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region Yodgor Fayzov 21 June convened meeting with military and law enforcement officials on border situation with Afghanistan where conflict had been escalating in recent weeks (see Afghanistan); highlighted risk of possible refugee influx of between 5,000 to 10,000 people and ongoing border insecurity due to presence of extremist groups along border. Border service revealed that 17 Afghan soldiers 27 June crossed border into Tajikistan, as they were fleeing Taliban operations in Afghanistan’s Balkh province, while media reports late June said Taliban offensive had pushed over 130 Afghan soldiers to cross border over to Tajikistan.

Tentative calm returned to Kyrgyz-Tajik border following last month’s deadly fighting. Authorities in northern Sughd region 6 May confirmed that last month’s deadly fighting on Tajik-Kyrgyz border killed dozens. Officials in Kyrgyzstan’s Batken region 18 May said security forces established joint checkpoint between Kyrgyz village of Ak-Sai and Tajikistan’s Vorukh district. Announcement followed previous day’s incident during which Kyrgyz authorities claimed three of their citizens beaten in Tajik custody along border; Tajik officials reportedly agreed to hold perpetrators accountable.

Deadliest fighting in years erupted on Kyrgyz-Tajik border, killing dozens and displacing thousands. Local residents in Kyrgyzstan’s southern Batken region and Tajikistan’s northern Sughd region 28 April clashed and pelted stones at each other, injuring many on both sides; incident reportedly related to ongoing dispute over water facility both sides claim. Kyrgyz police in Batken next day reported that gunfire from Tajik side of border targeted military unit in Kok-Tash village, while Tajikistan’s border guards same day claimed Kyrgyz military personnel opened fire on border units; sides 29 April agreed to ceasefire. Tajik authorities reported 15 dead, including six border guards and Kyrgyzstan reported 34 people dead, including three civilians; fighting reportedly injured scores more and displaced thousands. Earlier in month during visit to Vorukh city, Tajik enclave situated inside Kyrgyzstan’s southernmost Batken province, President Rahmon 9 April said talks on delimitation and demarcation of border with Kyrgyzstan have taken place since 2002 and govt had never considered swapping Vorukh for other land; visit and remarks followed reported proposal by senior Kyrgyz official to exchange Vorukh for other land in Batken region that sparked domestic criticism. Russia 1 April resumed regular flights with Tajikistan, paving way for return of Tajik migrants to Russia. Tajik and Russian militaries 19-23 April held joint exercises involving some 50,000 troops.

Govt held talks with Kyrgyzstan on border delimitation while concerns rose over instability of Afghan border. Tajik and Kyrgyz officials 15-18 March held talks over demarcation of Kyrgyz-Tajik border and agreed to hold further talks, which took place on 26 March. Governor of Shamsiddin Shohin district in south, at border with Afghanistan, 6 March confirmed that authorities engaged with local residents, including hunters and army reservists, to encourage them to “take up arms to defend our country” amid concerns of spillover from fighting inside Afghanistan’s northern provinces.

Security chief visited Afghan capital Kabul to discuss border security and Afghan peace talks. Head of Afghanistan’s High Council for National Reconciliation Abdullah Abdullah 14 Feb announced he met with head of Tajikistan’s State Committee for National Security Saimumin Yatimov in Afghan capital Kabul to discuss peace efforts and security situation; Abdullah’s aide same day said Tajik authorities are concerned about “unclarity in the ongoing Afghan peace talks, the continuation of violence in Afghanistan, the activation of terrorist groups in Afghanistan’s north, and the growing illegal drugs smuggling via the Afghan-Tajik border”. Earlier in month, Tajik and Russian govt officials 8-9 Feb convened in Russia’s capital Moscow and agreed “measures to expand Tajik-Russian economic ties and industrial cooperation” while Tajik officials requested that Moscow consider resuming air traffic between two countries, which was largely halted due to COVID-19. World Bank 14 Feb approved $8.63 mn for procurement and delivery of COVID-19 vaccines.