CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Europe & Central Asia

Cyprus

18 Apr Turkish Cypriot presidential elections won by hardline nationalist and current PM Dervis Eroglu with 50.4% of vote, defeating pro-compromise incumbent Talat with 42.9%. Despite Eroglu’s 19 Apr pledge to continue reunification talks with Greek Cypriots, victory of Eroglu, known to oppose talks and favour independence for Turkish Cypriots, described as setback to peace talks by Greek Cypriot and Greek govts. Turkish PM Erdogan called for resolution of Cyprus issue by end 2010; EU also urged both parties to continue talks. Reunification talks set to resume late May between Eroglu and Greek Cypriot President Christofias.

Europe & Central Asia

Cyprus

Intensified reunification talks continued: Greek Cypriot leader Christofias and Turkish Cypriot leader Talat discussed economy and EU affairs, 4, 16 March. Following last meeting before 18 April elections in Turkish Cypriot north, leaders 30 March issued joint statement stressing progress on governance, power sharing, EU and economy chapters. Rumours about Spanish proposal for multilateral conference dispelled by Spanish FM Moratinos during 10 March visit. Greek Cypriots 2 March expressed dissatisfaction with recent efforts by Turkey to engage them in dialogue. European Court of Human Rights 5 March ruled Immovable Property Commission in north an effective domestic remedy for property disputes; ruling, welcomed by Talat and criticised by Christofias, effectively recognised that restitution not possible in all cases. Talat 6 March launched re-election campaign for 18 April poll in north. Christofias 18 March said he will not seek re-election in 2013 if Cyprus problem not solved.

Europe & Central Asia

Cyprus

UNSG Ban 2 Feb ended 3-day visit with no significant breakthrough in progress towards unity deal. 4 Greek Cypriot political parties boycotted 1 Feb reception for Ban after he visited Turkish Cypriot leader Talat at his presidential office in northern Cyprus rather than official residence as originally planned; UNSR Downer downplayed venue change as having “no political significance”. Greek Cypriot Movement for Social Democracy (KS-EDEK) party 8 Feb announced withdrawal from ruling coalition, accusing Greek Cypriot leader Christofias of making “concessions” to Turkish Cypriot’s during recent talks; main coalition partner DIKO party 23 Feb voted to stay in govt. Greek Cypriot parliament 18 Feb adopted resolution opposing system of guarantees in any settlement; Talat called move “provocation”; Turkish Cypriot parliament 24 Feb called Turkey’s guarantee “vital and fundamental”. Christofias Talat 24 Feb met to discuss economy chapter of reunification talks.

Europe & Central Asia

Cyprus

Growing concerns that ongoing reunification talks between Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots heading towards stalemate. Greek Cypriot leader Christofias and Turkish Cypriot leader Talat held 2 rounds of intensified talks during month focused on governance, economy, EU affairs; UNSR Downer 29 Jan said progress had been made. UNSG Ban arrived 31 Jan for talks with both leaders. Followed Greek Cypriot parties’ 10 Jan rejection of new power-sharing plan proposed by Talat 7 Jan which conditionally accepted Greek Cypriot idea of cross-voting, insisted citizens of Turkey be given same freedoms in Cyprus as Greeks despite non-EU citizen status; Greek Cypriots 13 Jan presented counter-proposal restating earlier positions. Negotiating atmosphere soured by international legal rulings related to property issue: UK appeals court 19 Jan upheld April 2009 European Court of Justice decision in favour of Greek Cypriot property owner in case bought by UK couple. Christofias and Talat briefed officials in Greece and Turkey, respectively, on progress of talks. Late Jan reports Greek PM Papandreou had rejected Turkish proposal for 4-way meeting including Greece, Turkey.

Europe & Central Asia

Cyprus

Greek Cypriot leader Christofias and Turkish Cypriot leader Talat met several times over month to discuss issues including dates for 3-day intensified talks to be held Jan at UNSR residence. UNSC 14 Dec extended mandate of UNFICYP peacekeeping mission in Cyprus for 6 more months, urged agreement to reunify island. Christofias 21 Dec downplayed need to reach agreement before April elections in north, talks to continue with whoever is elected. Police 13 Dec reported theft of corpse of former Cyprus president Papadopoulos, died Dec 2008.

Europe & Central Asia

Cyprus

Greek Cypriot leader Christofias’s late-Oct statement that deal to reunify island “still not in sight” followed by string of proposals to encourage agreement. UN 10 Nov announced renewed UK offer to hand over half its 117km2 sovereign territory in Cyprus to help speed up settlement, conditional on sides agreeing peace deal and approval by referenda. Greek Cypriot FM responded saying no additional incentives needed; Ankara expressed approval of offer. Ankara’s 17 Nov proposal for 5-party conference, under UN supervision, on reunification rejected by Christofias. Turkish Cypriot leader Talat proposed marathon-style intensive talks to continue until agreement reached. At their 53rd meeting 20 Nov leaders discussed future of negotiations, decided on new phase beginning Jan with intensive 3-4 day talks, possibly including give-andtake process. Sides also discussed property 13, 17 Nov, and citizenship, immigration and asylum 24 Nov, including Turkish “settlers” in north. Talat indicated progress on categorization of properties. Christofias 26 Nov in letter to EU member states warned Nicosia will block Turkey’s EU accession bid unless Ankara recognizes Cyprus; Ankara responded calling for restrictions on Turkish Cypriots to be lifted, will not open ports to Cyprus before agreement reached to reunify island.

Europe & Central Asia

Cyprus

Resumption of reunifications talks between Greek Cypriot leader Christofias and Turkish Cypriot leader Talat, scheduled for 3 Sept, postponed by Greek Cypriots after 2 Sept failure to open Limnitis/Yeşilırmak crossing; diplomats blamed provocations by Greek Cypriot hardliners. Talks resumed 10 Sept, discussing govt and power sharing, including election of president and vice-president of the “united republic”. UN envoy Downer 17 Sept announced leaders’ decision to accelerate pace of meetings, meeting twice a week in 2 consecutive weeks in Oct; expressed “cautious optimism”, praised leaders’ commitment to successful outcome. Disagreements emerged late month over issue of Turkish settlers in Cyprus, and over Christofias’ criticism of Turkish Cypriot side in speech to UNGA. Next meeting scheduled 7 Oct; representatives and experts to meet before to discuss proposals on executive power, narrow differences. Following meeting with Turkish PM Erdogan, UNSG Ban 24 Sept expressed optimism.

Europe & Central Asia

Cyprus

At 40th and last meeting of first round of peace talks between Greek Cypriot leader Christofias and Turkish Cypriot leader Talat 6 Aug, UN envoy Downer said sides have made “significant progress” in negotiations, having produced a new text that includes both areas of disagreement and agreement on issues under “Governance and Power-sharing”, “EU” and “Economic Issues” chapters. Amid reports of planned visit by UNSG Ban in Oct, 2nd round of talks to start 3 Sept will focus on disagreements; shape of the executive and property issues to be first on agenda. Greek Cypriot leader Christofias 25 Aug said Greek Cypriot administration will oppose Turkey’s entry into EU unless Ankara changes stance on Cyprus issue.

Europe & Central Asia

Cyprus

9 July opening of talks on security and guarantees, last of 6 main categories in settlement talks, overshadowed by 35th anniversary commemorations of 15 July 1974 coup seeking to annex Cyprus to Greece and 20 July of Turkish invasion. Divisive issue in talks remains 1960 Treaty of Guarantee between UK, Turkey and Greece; Ankara, Turkish Cypriots maintain Turkey will never abandon rights as guarantor power on Cyprus, while Greek Cypriots say will never accept foreign power having say over island. Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders also discussed issues of territory in a future federation and immigration, asylum and citizenship issues. Cracks deepened between pro-compromise Turkish Cypriot president Talat and hardline camp victorious in April elections; PM Eroğlu 8 July said will not abandon self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus or demands for sovereignty. Turkey impatient with slowness of process, wants deal by Dec. Cyprus FM 20 July said govt will continue to hinder Turkey’s EU accession by blocking energy chapter unless Ankara stops obstructing Cyprus offshore oil exploration.

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