Progress on relaunching formal negotiations between Turkish and Greek Cypriots remained stalled, while tensions over sovereignty rights in disputed maritime zones continued. In controversial comments, Republic of Cyprus President Anastasiades 1 Dec said Turkish Cypriots had more in common with Greek Cypriots than with Turkey and that “as long as they depend, and will depend on Turkey, they will suffer the same as the Turkish people”. After assuming his post in early Dec, UN Sec-Gen’s Special Representative and Head of UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus Colin Stewart 10 Dec met separately with Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar and Anastasiades; Tatar and Anastasiades 14 Dec met at UN reception, where Stewart applauded achievements of bicommunal Technical Committees established under UN auspices to facilitate interaction and understanding between island’s two communities. Mitsotakis 7 Dec said Turkey demonstrated “continued intransigence and unacceptable behaviour, both on land and in the maritime zones of Cyprus” and stressed that any settlement in the fenced-off city of Varosha will “condemn any attempt for a mutually acceptable solution” of the Cyprus issue. Meanwhile, maritime tensions continued. Turkey 2 Dec criticised Greek Cypriots’ attempts to issue exploration license in its claimed Exclusive Economic Zone to oil companies ExxonMobil and Qatar Petroleum. Republic of Cyprus Energy Minister Natasa Pilides 10 Dec signed natural gas exploration and production sharing contract with ExxonMobil and Qatar Petroleum, reiterating that Republic of Cyprus is “exercising its sovereign rights according to international law”. “Ministry of Foreign Affairs” of “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” (“TRNC”) same day responded that contract is “clear usurpation of the rights of the Turkish Cypriot people” and “denial of Turkey’s rights in the region”. Turkish VP Fuat Oktay 15 Dec announced govt will respond to actions aimed at harming legitimate rights or interests of both Turkey and Turkish Cypriots. Following 2 Dec arson attack on Grand Mosque in Larnaca city in Republic of Cyprus, “TRNC” leader Tatar immediately condemned attack and Turkish President Erdoğan 6 Dec said attack “will not go unanswered” and those engaging in sabotage of places of worship “will pay a heavy price”.

UN Sec-Gen appointed new special representative, while tensions over sovereignty rights in disputed maritime zones remained high. Following months of diplomatic bickering, UN Sec-Gen António Guterres 4 Nov announced appointment of former Canadian diplomat Colin Stewart as his new special representative and head of UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP). Tensions persisted in disputed waters. Republic of Cyprus 3 Nov hosted multinational search and rescue exercise with participation of Greece, Egypt, France, Israel, Italy, U.S. and UK. Turkish and Turkish Cypriot officials throughout month warned they would send vessels into designated maritime zones if Republic of Cyprus went ahead with drilling activities. After Greek Cypriot govt officials reiterated that oil companies ExxonMobil and Qatar Petroleum would resume drilling in area south west of island (Block 10), Turkish Deputy President Fuat Oktay 15 Nov warned Ankara will not be deterred from continuing drilling for oil and gas in disputed waters. Republic of Cyprus 19 Nov issued navigational advisory announcing “preparation works and drilling operations” by Exxon Mobil-Qatar Petroleum in its claimed exclusive economic zone until 30 Jan 2022. Republic of Cyprus Interior Minister Nicos Nouris 8 Nov described country in “state of emergency” due to “huge wave” of irregular migration coming across buffer zone on island. “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” Parliamentary Advisory Board reached consensus to hold early general elections on 23 Jan 2022. Greek Cypriot leader Nicos Anastasiades and Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar 19 Nov announced agreement to introduce 5G mobile coverage across island.

UN Sec-Gen proposed new special envoy, while maritime tensions persisted. UN Sec-Gen Antonio Guterres 3 Oct proposed appointment of Canadian Colin Stewart as new special envoy to Cyprus; Republic of Cyprus next day consented while “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” (“TRNC”) did not immediately respond in likely sign of disagreement over scope of envoy’s mandate. Meanwhile, tensions persisted in maritime domain. Greek Cypriot govt 3 Oct rejected Ankara’s calls to stop energy exploration by research vessels in waters south of island. In troubling incident that could become more common in months ahead, Turkish defence ministry 4 Oct announced Turkish navy had pushed back Greek Cypriot research vessel; Republic of Cyprus’s research vessel carried out survey operations in claimed Exclusive Economic Zone 21-23 Oct. Turkish navy 8 Oct issued advisory announcing that Turkish research vessel Oruç Reis, accompanied by Turkish warships, would carry out seismic surveys north of Cyprus 8 Oct-16 Dec; in response, Republic of Cyprus claimed such activity violated its sovereign rights. Turkish Cypriot authorities 13 Oct began new phase in opening of fenced-off town of Varosha, clearing roads and streets in one part of area Turkey had demilitarised for resettlement of Greek Cypriots who wish to reclaim their properties. Incumbent “TRNC” PM Ersan Saner 13 Oct resigned, saying acting govt was no longer sustainable given that it had lost majority support in parliament; parliamentary elections in “TRNC” planned for early 2022.

Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders discussed reigniting talks, while tensions persisted over hydrocarbon exploration. UN Sec-Gen Guterres 27 Sept held meeting with Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders during which sides discussed how to overcome stalemate in efforts to relaunch formal settlement talks; Greek Cypriot leader Anastasiades subsequently announced that Guterres was considering appointment of special envoy who would search for common ground and work on confidence-building measures within pre-existing UN parameters. After Exxon Mobil/Qatar Petroleum consortium late Aug announced plans to begin work late Nov-early Dec in Republic of Cyprus’ offshore block 10, Turkish VP Fuat Oktay 4 Oct said Turkey would also commence hydrocarbon activities if Greek Cypriots commence drilling in eastern Mediterranean. In letter to Cypriot MEP Niyazi Kızılyürek, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen 7 Sept called on Turkey “to reverse the actions undertaken in Varosha since October 2020”, called 20 July statement from Turkish President Erdoğan and Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar to reopen section of Varosha/Maraş, area under Turkish military control since 1974, “an unacceptable unilateral decision” to change status of fenced-off area, also reiterated EU’s commitment to solution based on a bi-zonal bi-communal federation with two sides having political equality. Tatar 10 Sept said he continues to work for recognition of “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” (“TRNC”) and reiterated on several occasions during month that only viable solution to overcome deadlock on island is two-state formula based on sovereign equality of two political entities on island. In contrast, Republic of Cyprus President Anastasiades 14 Sept said that he would brief UN Sec-Gen Guterres on his proposal on return to 1960 constitution; proposal envisions “Turkish Cypriots returning to the executive, legislative, judicial authority and the other services of the Republic”.

Tensions persisted on island over passport dispute, while international partners criticised Turkish Cypriot plan to reopen section of Varosha/Maraş. Republic of Cyprus 23 Aug announced it would cancel or refuse to renew passports of handful of Turkish Cypriot officials of “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” (“TRNC”), notably “TRNC” leader Ersin Tatar, citing their actions that “undermine the sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity and security of the Republic of Cyprus”; Tatar called move “an assault on the efforts to find a settlement”. Criticism continued of Turkish Cypriot’s Ankara-backed initiative in July to reopen section of Varosha/Maraş, area under Turkish military since 1974. After EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell late July said EU will consider taking punitive measures, president of EU Parliament 1 Aug urged Ankara to stop “unacceptable violations” in Varosha. In letter to Republic of Cyprus President Anastasiades, Russian President Putin 2 Aug called violations of UN Security Council resolutions “unacceptable” and expressed support for finding solution to Cyprus issue within “framework of international law”. Tatar 2 Aug reiterated that “Varosha is within the borders of the TRNC”. Meanwhile, reports mid-month surfaced that UK, in particular, had intensified efforts to forge dialogue for relaunch of formal negotiations, seeking to take advantage of presence of Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders at UN General Assembly scheduled for late Sept. Tatar 9 Aug underscored desire for two-state solution, saying “it is time for the world to recognise the reality that we have two different states, [and] any effort to push us into a mixed marriage is doomed to fail”.

Turkish Cypriot leader announced plan to take civilian control of area under Turkish military since 1974, sparking widespread international opposition, while maritime tensions continued. Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar 20 July announced that Turkish military would hand over 3.5-sq km section of sealed-off quarter of Varosha/Maraş to civilian “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” (TRNC) control and Greek Cypriot property owners could apply to Turkish Cypriot administration for reparations. Announcement sparked international criticism: Republic of Cyprus President Anastasiades called plan “illegal and unacceptable” and Greek MFA 20 July condemned action “in the strongest terms”, while UK, U.S., Germany and EU 20-22 July voiced strong opposition; UN Security Council 23 July unanimously called for “immediate reversal” of steps. EU 27 July condemned “Turkey’s unilateral steps”, prompting Turkish foreign ministry same day to call EU position “biased”. President Erdoğan 19-20 July visited “TRNC”, announcing plans to construct new govt complex for political leadership of “TRNC”. In maritime domain, Turkish Petroleum Corporation 9 July applied for new exploration licence in three areas off coast of Silifke in Mersin province, in zone that also includes significant parts of Greek Cypriot-claimed Exclusive Economic Zone. Tensions rose after Greek Cypriot police 16 July accused Turkish Cypriot Coast Guard vessel of firing warning shots at Greek Cypriot Coast Guard patrol in island’s northern gulf of Morphou, while allegedly violating Greek Cypriot territorial waters; Greek Cypriot official Marios Pelekanos said: “There is no excuse for this behaviour by the Turkish vessel”, while “TRNC” Security Forces Command called incident “fake news”. Meanwhile, Turkey and “TRNC” intensified efforts to secure diplomatic recognition of “TRNC”. Consular team of Pakistan embassy in Turkey 11 July conducted official three-day visit to de facto administration in north while Azerbaijani parliamentarians 16 July visited “TRNC”. UN Security Council 29 July extended mandate of UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus for six months until 31 Jan 2022.

Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders agreed to open border crossings, while UN continued diplomatic engagement with Cypriot parties in hope of scheduling new international conference. In show of goodwill, Republic of Cyprus President Anastasiades and “TRNC” President Ersin Tatar 2 June confirmed agreement on reopening all crossing points on island from 4 June onward; crossings between north and south had been essentially closed since Feb 2020 due to COVID-19 restrictions. Anastasiades and Tatar 22 June held separate meetings with U.N. Special Envoy on Cyprus Dispute Jane Holl Lute as part of efforts to search for common ground and assess prospects for second 5+1 conference. Tensions at sea continued, notably when Turkish Coast Guard 22 June blocked and reportedly boarded Greek Cypriot fishing boat off Dipkarpaz town (north-eastern part of Cyprus). Turkey issued numerous advisories for military drills, including in area south of Dipkarpaz 1-18 June, in Gulf of Morphou (northern part of Cyprus) on 23 June and south of Dipkarpaz 1-16 July. Following 30 May parliamentary elections in Republic of Cyprus — which saw ruling Democratic Rally party claim 27.8% of the votes, marking party’s worst election result in 40 years — Tatar 1 June noted hardline forces favouring unitary state were gaining ground in south. At 24-25 June summit, European Council said it remained “fully committed to the comprehensive settlement of the Cyprus problem on the basis of a bicommunal, bi-zonal federation with political equality”; Turkish ministry of foreign affairs 25 June responded that it is impossible for EU “to make a positive contribution to the Cyprus issue” as long as bloc “ignores Turkish Cypriots and disregards their equal rights”.

President Anastasiades urged Turkish Cypriots to abandon two-state solution while Republic of Cyprus held parliamentary elections. Following late April 5+1 informal meeting between UN, leaders of two Cypriot communities and three guarantor powers Greece, Turkey and UK, gap between positions of Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots remained wide in terms of desired outcome for Cyprus settlement. Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar 27 May reacted harshly to conditions put forth by Republic of Cyprus President Anastasiades during his visit to Brussels, which included that Turkish Cypriots should abandon their two-state solution proposition. In parliamentary elections held in Republic of Cyprus 30 May, ruling conservative DISY party emerged in first place but fell short of outright majority.  UN Special Envoy for Cyprus Jane Hall Lute, due to visit Greek capital Athens, Turkish capital Ankara and Republic of Cyprus capital Nicosia next month to seek common ground for new round of talks.

Informal five-plus-one talks commenced in Geneva, ending without breakthrough but with sides expressing willingness to continue dialogue in near future. Leaders of two Cypriot communities, UN and three guarantor powers Greece, Turkey and UK 27-29 April met in Swiss city Geneva for informal talks. Meeting concluded without bridging differences between Greek Cypriot delegation, which favours bi-zonal, bi-communal federation, and Turkish Cypriot delegation, which seeks two-state solution; following talks, UN Sec-Gen Antonio Guterres 29 April concluded: “We have not yet found enough common grounds to allow for the resumption of formal negotiations”, but announced that sides voiced willingness to hold further informal talks in coming months. Ahead of meeting, thousands of protesters from both Cypriot communities 24 April rallied in support of reunification. Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar 25 April said “only realistic solution” is one “based on the sovereign equality of two states living side by side”. Meanwhile, Greek and Turkish sides exchanged fiery rhetoric. Turkish President Erdoğan 14 April said if “rights of Northern Cyprus are usurped” then Turkey will intervene as “our ships are ready to sail”. Turkish FM Mevlut Çavuşoğlu next day said negotiating federation, which Turkey has done for past five decades, is waste of time and impossibility; remarks followed Greek PM Mitsotakis’s comments last month that “Turkish aggression against Cyprus undermines Ankara’s European course and essentially the very resumption of talks on resolving the Cyprus issue”.

Expectations for next month’s high-level talks on resolving longstanding conflict remained tempered. Ahead of five-plus-one talks – which will include UN, leaders of two Cypriot communities, and three guarantor powers Greece, Turkey and UK – scheduled for 27-29 April in Geneva, sides remained far apart on desired outcomes: Turkey/Turkish Cypriots favour solution based on equal sovereignty of two states, while Greece/Republic of Cyprus continue to voice support for return to settlement talks for bi-zonal, bi-communal federation. Turkish President Erdoğan 19 March called for debate around new and realistic options “instead of dictating to the sides past models that have proven to be unsuccessful”.  Republic of Cyprus, Greece and Israel 8 March signed Memorandum of Understanding on project to establish new energy grid transporting electricity from Israel-Cyprus to Europe through Greece; Ankara 16 March issued verbal note requesting information and that its approval be sought for “works in areas within [Turkey’s] continental shelf”. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrel 8 March said: “The relative calm we are currently experiencing at sea in the Eastern Mediterranean and on settlement-related issues is fragile. Progress in the Cyprus talks is more important than ever”.