Tensions persisted between Republic of Cyprus and Turkey over hydrocarbon exploration in east Mediterranean. After Ankara 4 June announced it would soon start drilling north east of Cyprus, Turkish President Erdoğan 7 June vowed not to allow Nicosia to proceed with gas exploration without including Turkish Cypriots. Cypriot authorities 14 June confirmed arrest warrants against companies, company executives and crew involved in exploration activities of the Turkish drilling vessel “Fatih” off Cyprus coast, in what Nicosia says is its exclusive economic zone. Erdoğan 16 June threatened to deploy navy if Nicosia attempted to arrest crew, and Turkey 20 June sent second drilling vessel, Yavuz, to east Mediterranean Sea. Nicosia 28 June issued reserve for early-July naval exercises, covering area where Turkish vessel is anchored. French President Macron 14 June reiterated his “solidarity with Cyprus” and called Turkey to “respect its [Cyprus’] sovereignty”. At EU Council meeting in Brussels 2o June, European Council endorsed Greek PM Tsipras’s invitation to EU Commission and European External Action Service “to submit options for appropriate measures [against Turkey] without delay”.

Tensions rose between Republic of Cyprus and Turkey over hydrocarbon explorations in East Mediterranean, with escalating rhetoric from Greek Cypriots, new Turkish naval manoeuvres, and 9 May breakdown of de facto Turkish Cypriot coalition govt. Following April announcement of imminent Turkish offshore drilling, Greek Cypriot President Anastasiades 6 May likened Ankara’s actions to “second invasion”. Greek Cypriot media same day reported Nicosia had sought international arrest warrant for crew of Turkish vessel preparing to drill in Republic of Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ); 10 May reported Nicosia had granted new concession for France’s Total and Italy’s ENI to expand hydrocarbon exploration in EEZ. Turkey 13-25 May carried out “Denizkurdu-2019” naval exercise in East Mediterranean; Turkish FM Çavuşoğlu 20 May said Ankara would exercise its “sovereign right” to drill for hydrocarbon resources off coast of northern Cyprus. U.S. State Department 5 May said Turkey’s intention to drill was highly provocative; EU Council President Tusk 9 May said EU “stands united” behind Republic of Cyprus; Ankara dismissed statement. Turkey’s National Security Council 30 May reaffirmed determination to protect rights and interests of Turkey, “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” and Turkish Cypriots, warned against “provocative acts” and “irresponsible statements”, and said Turkey will continue activities in line with international law and not allow faits accomplis in East Mediterranean.

UN Sec-Gen Guterres continued to push for new round of reunification talks, including in his 16 April report to UN Security Council. UN Special Envoy Jane Holl Lute 8 April met with Greek Cypriot President and Turkish Cypriot leader; Turkish Cypriot side and Ankara remain sceptical of “federal solution” and call for “new formats”. Following significant late-Feb hydrocarbon discoveries in Republic of Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), Turkish Cypriot leadership 21 April announced new seismic exploration within parts of EEZ, conducted by Turkish company.

Attempts continued to resume reunification talks. Turkish FM Çavuşoğlu 11 March met Turkish Cypriot “foreign affairs minister” counterpart Kudret Özersay to discuss recent developments; same day met with UN Special Envoy Jane Holl Lute, after which he tweeted “all options are on the table for a permanent solution in Cyprus”. ExxonMobil 28 Feb announced discovery of significant (more than double previous estimate) gas reserves in Block 10 of Republic of Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), prompting analyst warnings of risk of increased tensions with Greece/ Republic of Cyprus and possibly U.S. if Turkish military moves to prevent exploration activities.

Trying to forge dialogue on possible resumption of reunification talks, UN Special Envoy Jane Holl Lute met separately with Greek Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades and Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akıncı early Feb, as well as with representatives of guarantor states; discussed terms of reference for resumption of talks and issues related to guarantor states but no progress reported. Anastasiades and Akıncı came together at informal meeting hosted by the UN 26 Feb. Tensions over hydrocarbon explorations in Eastern Mediterranean continued; ExxonMobil reportedly expected to announce finding of major gas resources as a result of three months of explorations in Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), which could further increase tensions.

Discussion on possible resumption of talks on reunification of island continued to evolve around different modes of governance. After meeting with UN Secretary-General Special Representative and Head of UN’s Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) Elizabeth Spehar 11 Jan, Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akıncı said that nearest date that all parties will be ready for reunification talks would be in June, referring to municipal elections in Turkey in March and European Parliament elections in Republic of Cyprus late May. UN Security Council 30 Jan voted to extend UNFICYP mandate. Tensions over hydrocarbon explorations in Eastern Mediterranean continued.

Prospects for resumption of talks on reunification of island still considered dim despite parties continuing to discuss “new paths forward” around different modes of governance: Greek Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades expressing support for “loose federation”, Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akıncı for “federal” solution, and Ankara for “confederation” or “two-states within the EU” solution. UN special envoy Jane Holl Lute, visited the island 16-18 Dec to discuss terms of reference for way forward with Anastasiades and Akıncı. Tensions over hydrocarbon explorations continued.

Tensions over hydrocarbon exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean increased. Turkey’s drilling vessel Fatih 31 Oct started first deep drilling activities off coast of Antalya. Turkish govt spokesperson 1 Nov said Turkish Armed Forces ready to retaliate if Republic of Cyprus continued to claim rights over Block 7, for which Republic of Cyprus invited international bids in Oct. Prospects for relaunching talks between Greek Cypriot president and Turkish Cypriot leader remained dim despite intense efforts by UN, with persistent disagreement over what type of govt they could work toward. Both sides 12 Nov opened two new checkpoints along the UN buffer zone separating them, in line with 26 Oct agreement.

UN Special Envoy Jane Holl Lute 15 Oct submitted report to UN Secretary-General Guterres reportedly stating that “prospects of comprehensive settlement between the communities on the island remain alive”. Came after discussions between Turkish FM Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, Turkish Cypriot “foreign minister” Kudret Özersay and Greek Cypriot leader Nicos Anastasiades on sidelines of UN General Assembly late Sept on alternative solution proposals to “bi-zonal and bi-communal federation”, reportedly discussing new formats including “confederation”, “loose federation” and “decentralised federation”. UN Security Council 30 Oct welcomed report and Guterres’ decision to continue efforts to resume negotiations. Lute met with Anastasiades and Akinci 31 Oct. Anastasiades and Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akinci 26 Oct agreed to open two new border crossings along buffer zone at Dherynia/Derinya and Lefka/Aplici 12 Nov. Tensions over hydrocarbon explorations continued; Greek Cypriot administration 3 Oct invited international energy companies to bid on exploration licence in Block 7 of its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), prompting harsh criticism from Ankara, which said move violated Turkish Cypriots’ “inalienable rights to natural resources”. ExxonMobil 5 Oct said it was still planning drilling activities in Republic of Cyprus’ EEZ in 2018.

Tensions over hydrocarbon explorations continued; Turkish FM Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu 3 Sept said Turkey, having purchased new drilling platform, could begin drilling in the east Mediterranean within months if Greek-Cypriot govt continued to take unilateral steps toward exploration. Turkish President Erdoğan 16 Sept said Turkey will increase Turkish troops in northern Cyprus. UN Special Envoy to Cyprus Jane Holl Lute travelled to Athens and London 11-12 Sept to complete meetings with all parties involved in Cyprus issue to assess possibility of renewed reunification talks. Anastasiades and Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akıncı 27-29 Sept attended UN General Assembly.