CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Europe & Central Asia

Cyprus

Tensions over hydrocarbon explorations continued; Turkish President Erdoğan 3 Aug revealed plan to buy Turkey’s second drillship for east Mediterranean exploration. UN efforts to explore options for restarting reunification talks continued; Greek Cypriot President Anastasiades and Turkish Cypriot leader Akıncı expected to meet with UN Secretary General in Sept.

Europe & Central Asia

Cyprus

Turkey 4 July approved appointment of Jane Holl Lute as new UN special envoy on Cyprus; Holl Lute met 23 July with Greek Cypriot President Nikos Anastasiades and Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akıncı to discuss ways forward on possible new round of reunification talks. No substantial progress was reported. Turkish FM Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu met same day with Akıncı, later stated that Turkish Cypriots would accept no less than political equality. Greek FM Nikos Kotzias 3 July expressed Greece’s desire for treaty with Turkey on issues of security and guarantees before holding an international conference on Cyprus; Greek PM Tsipras 12 July broached topic with Turkish President Erdoğan on sidelines of NATO summit in Brussels, emphasising importance of restarting talks and establishing close contact between Greek and Turkish FMs in process. UN Security Council 26 July unanimously voted to renew UN peacekeeping force in Cyprus (UNFICYP)’s mandate for six months until 31 Jan 2019.

Europe & Central Asia

Cyprus

Amid continued tensions over hydrocarbon exploration, Turkish drillship set out for Mediterranean sea 31 May to attempt country’s first deep-sea drilling project. Greek Cypriot Democratic Rally (DISY) party leader Averof Neophytou early June told oil and gas forum in Washington that U.S. and Republic of Cyprus had entered new level of relations in energy field especially after ExxonMobil’s signing of exploration and production sharing contract in April for Block 10 of Cyprus’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ); senior U.S. official 5 June said that Turkish “harassment of drilling vessels in the Cyprus EEZ is not something that we will allow to go unnoticed”.

Europe & Central Asia

Cyprus

Month saw signs of interest on part of Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders in possible resumption of reunification talks. At request of govt of Greek Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades, UN Secretary-General Guterres 2 May appointed temporary envoy Jane Holl Lute to oversee possibility of resuming talks; UN said full-time special envoy to be appointed only if talks resume; Ankara yet to approve Holl Lute’s appointment. Turkish foreign ministry 3 May stated “a new path should be tried”. Greek Cypriot negotiator Andreas Mavroyiannis said there was no alternative to reunification. Amid ongoing hydrocarbons dispute, Anastasiades met Greek PM Tsipras and Israeli PM Netanyahu 8 May for fourth trilateral summit on Eastern Mediterranean pipeline project and energy cooperation; Tsipras said project “not just about energy but the highest level of geostrategic cooperation”. Turkish Cypriot leader Akıncı 9 May said summit excluding his and Turkey’s govts was not “a peace route”.

Europe & Central Asia

Cyprus

Greek Cypriot President Anastasiades and Turkish Cypriot leader Akıncı 16 April met for informal dinner in UN-controlled buffer zone for first time since July 2017 collapse in reunification talks. UN official described meeting as “frank and open exchange of views”; however, observers noted prospects for relaunching reunification talks remain dim. Tensions over hydrocarbons dispute in Eastern Mediterranean continued, but without serious confrontation; ExxonMobil vessel 5 April completed ten-day exploration in Cyprus’s exclusive economic zone. Amid increasing tensions between Turkey and Israel over Gaza protests (see Israel/Palestine), and between Turkey and Greece (see Turkey), Anastasiades and Greek PM Tsipras 4 April met with Israeli PM Netanyahu to discuss construction of gas pipeline from Israel to Western Europe via Cyprus and Greece; follow-up trilateral summit planned in Nicosia in May.

Europe & Central Asia

Cyprus

Tensions over hydrocarbons deposits in Eastern Mediterranean intensified following Turkey’s 11 Feb obstruction of drillship contracted by Greek Cypriot govt off the coast of Cyprus. Turkish Cypriot officials said they would start their own explorations if unilateral Greek Cypriot gas exploration continues. Turkish media 7 March reported Turkish PM Yıldırım’s response to news about ExxonMobil vessels expected to reach Cyprus to drill, which he said would be met with “appropriate response”. After two ExxonMobil vessels arrived at port in Limassol mid-March, Turkish President Erdoğan 22 March said he would not let Greek Cypriots exploit reserves. Turkey condemned EU statement 28 March asking it to respect sovereign rights of Cyprus to explore and exploit its natural resources. U.S. navy denied that increased deployment in Eastern Mediterranean was aimed at protecting ExxonMobil’s gas explorations and deterring Turkish obstruction. Athens and Ankara exchanged threatening rhetoric early March after Turkish coastguard vessel 17 Feb collided with stationary Greek patrol boat near Kardak/Imia islets in Aegean Sea, which countries fought over in 1996.

Europe & Central Asia

Cyprus

Month saw spat over gas explorations as Greek Cypriot energy minister 8 Feb announced Italian and French companies had discovered “extensive” pure gas reserves off Cyprus; Cypriot authorities accused Turkish navy 9 Feb and 23 Feb of blocking drilling ships. Ankara 11 Feb said it will not abandon Turkish and Turkish Cypriots’ rights over hydrocarbon reserves off Cyprus to unilateral Greek Cypriot actions. European Council President Donald Tusk 12 Feb called on Ankara to avoid threats, refrain from damaging relations. Greek Cypriot leader Anastasiades 21 Feb urged Turkey to lift blockade on offshore gas explorations activities and called for return to the negotiation table; 28 Feb said resumption of peace talks “impossible” at present due to Turkey’s and Turkish Cypriot side’s “violations of international law and unacceptable demands”. Following 7 Jan snap parliamentary elections, Turkish Cypriot leader Akıncı 2 Feb approved coalition formed by Republican Turkish Party (CTP), which came second, and three other parties. Incumbent Anastasiades won 4 Feb presidential elections in Republic of Cyprus for second five-year term after close run-off, winning 56% of vote in second round. UN Security Council 30 Jan renewed mandate of UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) for six months.

Europe & Central Asia

Cyprus

In 7 Jan snap parliamentary elections in Turkish Cyprus, National Unity Party (UBP) of incumbent “Prime Minister” Hüseyin Özgürcün received 38% of vote (winning 21 seats out of 50); socialist Republican Turkish Party came second with 22%, and newly established People’s Party 17%. UBP expected to form coalition with two smaller right-wing parties. Overall, support to right-wing parties increased, arguably weakening Akıncı’s hand in pushing for bi-zonal bi-communal federal solution to Cyprus problem. Presidential elections held in Republic of Cyprus 28 Jan; incumbent President Anastasiades received 35% of vote and will face run-off with left-wing AKEL-backed candidate Stavros Malas in second round 4 Feb.

Europe & Central Asia

Cyprus

Hardline discourse by opponents of Turkish Cypriot leader Akınıcı intensified ahead of 7 Jan snap parliamentary elections in north. Turkish Cypriot “Foreign Minister” Tahsin Ertuğruloğlu, known to be one of those opponents, 28 Nov said he was pursuing official recognition of north by U.S. and international community; said “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” (“TRNC”) would “not stop its push for independence” since “there were no plans for future peace talks”. Greek Cypriot leader Anastasiades one of nine candidates to formally enter race 28 Dec for presidential election in Republic of Cyprus; first round scheduled for 28 Jan. In 10 Dec interview with Greek newspaper during visit to country, Turkish President Erdoğan said Cyprus reunification talks doomed as long as Greek side did not stop regarding Turkish Cypriots as a minority. Israel and Republic of Cyprus 3 Dec conducted joint military drills on island for third time in 2017, following first “trilateral defence summit” between Israel, Cyprus and Greece in Athens 5 Nov. Anastasiades engaged in efforts to foster ties with neighbouring countries to advance planned energy projects; Republic of Cyprus, Greece, Israel and Italy 5 Dec signed protocol to build world’s longest underwater natural gas pipeline to supply energy to Europe.

Europe & Central Asia

Cyprus

Turkish Cypriot leader Akıncı 15 Nov said he remained open to creating new strategic settlement framework led by UN Secretary-General Guterres, subject to clear implementation timetable to reunify Cyprus; Greek Cypriot govt same day refused, said no solution framework is possible beyond those already presented. Turkish Cypriot parliament 13 Nov voted unanimously to hold early parliamentary elections 7 Jan 2018. Greek Cypriot presidential elections scheduled for 28 Jan 2018. Greek Cypriot leader Anastasiades, Egypt’s President Sisi and Greek PM Tsipras met in Nicosia 21 Nov vowing to broaden their “strategic cooperation” on energy and other areas.

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