Peace talks between govt and Kurdish PKK insurgency continue but hang in balance as both sides have blamed each other for stalling. High-level PKK leader Cemil Bayık 5 Sept announced halting militants’ withdrawals to outside Turkey; jailed PKK head Öcalan 15 Sept voiced need for “new format” in peace talks. Ceasefire remains in place but tensions continue: PKK 11 Sept attacked construction site, abducted 4 in Siirt; 15 Sept set construction vehicles on fire in Elazığ. PM Erdoğan 30 Sept announced “democratisation package” including plans for education in mother languages in private schools, possible lowering of electoral threshold, removing headscarf ban in public sector. Announcement sparked protests of tens of thousands of Kurds in SE; co-chair of pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) Gültan Kışanak 30 Sept said package failed to meet expectations. Amid continued tensions along Syrian border, govt expressed dissatisfaction with U.S.-Russia agreement in addressing Syrian crisis. 2 Turkish jets 16 Sept shot down Syrian helicopter after it strayed into Turkish airspace. Frequent clashes continue between military and Syrian smugglers: live ammunition smuggled into Turkey exploded 3 Sept, killed 5 Syrians, 1 Turk. 1 Turkish civilian killed 29 Sept in clashes between Turkish army and Syrian smugglers in Hatay. 1 protester died in anti-govt demonstrations in Hatay 10 Sept, sparking more protests in Istanbul, Ankara and Hatay.

Govt peace process with Kurdish insurgency PKK looks precarious as both sides engage in aggressive rhetoric. PM Erdoğan 16 Aug reiterated no plans to reduce 10% party election threshold to enter parliament or introduce education in mother languages, also said PKK did not fulfil promises and withdrew only 20% of militants to outside Turkey. PKK leader Cemil Bayık 14 and 27 Aug said govt had until 1 Sept to announce plans to take steps, or PKK could stop withdrawals, walk away from talks. Deputy PM Bülent Arınç 26 Aug said PM to announce a “democratisation package” in 2 weeks. Spillover from clashes in Ras al-Ain on Syria’s Turkish border killed 1 Turk 3 Aug, bringing number of Turks killed in Syria-related violence near border to 74 based on unofficial Crisis Group count. Changing its rejection to engage Syria’s PKK-linked Kurds’ Democratic Union Party (PYD), Turkish govt invited PYD leader Saleh Muslim 25 July and 14 Aug to meet national intelligence and foreign ministry officials. Exchange of fire between gendarmerie and 2,500-3,000 alleged oil smugglers at Syrian border wounded 18 soldiers 6 Aug near Hatay. Relations with Israel deteriorated after PM Erdoğan 20 Aug alleged Israel behind July military coup in Egypt. Turkey and Egypt recalled respective ambassadors, cancelled joint naval drill.

Govt peace process with Kurdish insurgency PKK under threat as PKK and security forces resumed exchange of fire in SE (no fatalities to date). Turkish soldiers 4 July fired on crowd protesting construction of gendarmerie outpost, killing one; clashes between demonstrators and security forces in other SE provinces continued in following days. PM Erdoğan 26 June indicated no plans to start education in mother languages or lower 10% election threshold to enter parliament, 2 major Kurdish grievances. Interior minister 10 July said that withdrawal of militants to outside Turkish borders not complete; leader of PKK’s armed forces Murat Karayılan said govt’s turn to take steps. Senior PKK member Sabri Ok 25 Jul gave govt until 15 Oct to enact reforms, PKK leader Cemil Bayik 31 Jul said govt had until 1 Sept; no major moves expected until early Oct. Clashes on Syria border continued to spill into Turkey; 3 killed in Ceylanpınar from 17 July fighting across border in Ras al-Ayn between People’s Defense Forces (YPG), military wing of Syria’s Kurds’ Democratic Union Party (PYD), and Jabhat al-Nusra front; Turkey returned fire, sent F-16s and drones to border. Amid reports of PYD’s imminent declaration of autonomy in northern Syria, Turkish nationalist opposition parties calling for military intervention. Anti-govt protests that began late May mostly calmed, despite underlying frustrations remaining unaddressed. Number of protest-related casualties rose to 5 as 19-year-old demonstrator, beaten by unknown assailants 2 June, died 10 July. Conditional opening of first EU accession chapter in 3 years followed by anti-EU statements by Erdoğan’s new chief adviser Yiğıt Bulut. Govt condemned ousting of Egypt’s president Morsi; Erdoğan reportedly refused phone call with acting VP ElBaradei.

Environmental demonstration that began 27 May against govt’s plans to develop Istanbul’s Gezi Park escalated into largescale anti-govt protests 31 May, spread to over 60 provinces. Police crackdown and clashes left 4 people dead, over 7,000 injured, dozens detained.PM Erdoğan met protesters 12-14 June, announced Gezi Park construction project on hold awaiting court decision, but scattered demonstrations and police interventions continue. Clashes between security forces and locals at Lice district in SE Diyarbakır province left 1 dead, 10 injured 28 June. Erdoğan organised pro-AKP rallies throughout Turkey starting 15 June in Istanbul. Withdrawal of armed PKK militants to outside Turkish borders continued. Process remains fragile; first PKK-army clash since mid-March left 1 Turkish soldier wounded 3 June in Șırnak province. PKK military leader Karayılan 19 June accused govt of sabotaging process by increasing military presence in Kurdish regions including N Iraq. As of 17 June, some 200,000 Syrians taking shelter in Turkish refugee camps, estimated 250,000 in cities. Turkey-EU relations deteriorated over harsh govt crackdown on peaceful protests; EU 25 June agreed to open Chapter 22 on regional policy, first chapter after 3-year hiatus, but postponed inter-governmental conference until after Oct, following Germany’s request. 

Syrian crisis continues to spill over: 2 May clashes between Syrians trying to enter Turkey and Turkish security forces at Akçakale crossing in Șanlıurfa province left police officer dead, 11 wounded including 4 civilians. 2 car bombs in Reyhanlı town in border Hatay province 11 May killed 52; Ankara said attack linked to Syrian regime using local Turkish leftist group, investigation continues. After 16 May meeting between PM Erdoğan and President Obama, Turkey shifted position to support Syria political negotiations in Geneva II conference. PM Erdoğan 16 May said Turkey has spent $1.5 billion on Syria. Showing Turkey-PKK peace process is gaining momentum, armed PKK militants started withdrawal from Turkey to northern Iraq 8 May; PKK military leader Murat Karayılan said withdrawal of 2,100 militants will be completed by Nov. No fresh violence between PKK-army thanks to current process, but 2 soldiers died 2 May after stepping on an old mine in Iğdır province. Violent clashes between police and thousands of protestors against govt construction in central Istanbul late month left several injured.

Parliament 9 April approved ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP)’s proposal to establish commission to monitor peace process between govt and Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK); opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) refused to vote. 3 pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) deputies visited PKK’s jailed leader Abdullah Öcalan 3 and 14 April, said Öcalan believed process entered “promising stage”. PKK military leader in northern Iraq Karayılan 25 April announced PKK will start withdrawal from Turkey 8 May; no casualties recorded in April. Govt 3 April announced list of “wise people” tasked with explaining peace efforts to public. MHP 20 April staged first big demonstration against govt’s PKK deal in western province Izmir. Much-anticipated 4th judicial reform package approved 11 April, changing definition of terrorism to exclude printing statements and attending unauthorised demonstrations, but thousands of nonviolent defendants in Kurdistan Communities Union case fall outside package’s scope. Amid gradual thaw in relations with Tel Aviv, Israeli delegation visited to discuss compensation for relatives of 9 Turks killed on Mavi Marmara in 2010. European Parliament 18 April approved resolution on Turkey’s 2012 EU progress report calling on the Council to open negotiations on chapter 22 (regional policy), lift blocks on chapters 23 (judiciary and fundamental rights), 24 (justice, freedom and security). Govt disaster agency reported number of Syrian refugees in Turkish camps surpassed 191,000, officials estimate around 250,000 more in Turkish cities.

Jailed leader of outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) Öcalan’s 21 March call to militants for eventual ceasefire and withdrawal to outside Turkish borders boosted peace prospects between govt and Kurdish insurgency. PM Erdoğan said Öcalan’s call “positive” but will wait for implementation. PKK 13 March released 8 kidnapped public officials. PKK military leader in northern Iraq Karayılan declared ceasefire starting 23 March, suggested withdrawal could be completed by fall 2013. Revolutionary People’s Liberation Party-Front (DHKP-C) claimed responsibility for 2 simultaneous attacks on govt buildings in Ankara 19 March. Israel PM Netanyahu 22 March issued formal apology to Turkey and agreed to pay compensation for killing 9 Turks aboard Mavi Marmara vessel in 2010, PM Erdoğan accepted apology but said ties will not normalize until Israel implements conditions.

Car bomb near Cilvegözü Turkish border crossing to Syria 11 Feb killed 14 civilians including 4 Turks: Syrian National Council (SNC) 12 Feb claimed target was SNC delegation. Govt-PKK peace talks continued: second delegation from pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) 24 Feb visited jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan following govt approval, issued statement suggesting future release of PKK-held captives. Civilian died under riot control vehicle 11 Feb in pro-Öcalan demonstrations in Diyarbakır province. 26 Feb Turkish army airstrike near PKK HQ in N Iraq killed 4 militants. Parliament 25 Feb began discussing AKP govt’s “fourth judicial reform package”, to remedy structural problems with judicial system, could lead to release of some Kurdish politicians and activists detained in Kurdistan Communities’ Union case. Suicide bombing by member of Revolutionary People’s Liberation Part-Front (DHKP-C) at U.S. embassy in Ankara 1 Feb killed 1 guard; police 18 Feb detained 167 people connected to group. France 12 Feb announced readiness to lift its veto on one of 5 EU negotiation chapters it has blocked since 2007. German Chancellor Merkel 23 Feb announced support for opening new chapter, called on Turkey to show progress in opening ports to Greek Cypriot vessels.

Optimism over prospect of govt-PKK peace negotiations followed PM Erdoğan’s 19 Dec revelation that National Intelligence Organisation has been holding new round of talks with jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan. Govt permitted pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) and pro-Kurdish civil society organisation DTK to visit Öcalan 3 Jan; during meeting he reportedly said “era of armed struggle is over”. PM adviser on Kurdish affairs 4 Jan said goal with Kurds was “final settlement”, 11 Jan said military operations against PKK would continue until it disarmed. Govt 25 Jan passed law allowing defendants to speak Kurdish in court at will. Diyarbakır court 31 Jan acquitted 98 Kurdish mayors on one count of terrorism-related charges in trial with 106 suspects, suspended sentence for 3 years on another count. Crisis Group informally counted at least 22 people, mostly PKK, killed in clashes between govt and militants during month. Little progress on new constitution; AKP official 2 Jan said deadline may be extended from March to June 2013. 3 PKK women assassinated in Paris 10 Jan, including co-founder Sakine Cansız; thousands peacefully attended funerals in Diyarbakır province 17 Jan. French police arrested another PKK member as suspect in killings 21 Jan. Turkish police continued detentions of non-violent Kurdish activists in 1, 9, 11 Jan operations. Following Ankara’s Dec request to NATO to boost defence capabilities against Syria, 6 Patriot anti-missile batteries from U.S., Germany, Netherlands became operational 25 Jan amid protests, some violent. Over 150,000 Syrian refugees now in 13 Turkish camps; estimated 60,000-150,000 outside camps.

NATO 3 Dec approved Turkey’s request for defensive Patriot missiles along its border with Syria; deployment expected early 2013. PKK-army fighting killed 4 militants 1 Dec in Elazig province; Turkish authorities said 26 PKK killed, 11 captured in one-month military operation in Osmaniye province in Dec. Stray Syrian shells continue to fall on Turkish border towns, no casualties in Dec; Turkish military more restrained in retaliating to incidents. 11 Dec EU General Affairs council’s enlargement report mentioned “accession” with reference to Turkey first time in 5 years, stressed need for new constitution.