Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) intensified attacks in south east while Turkish military targeted PKK within Turkey and in northern Iraq. PKK launched attacks on state-contracted workers in Nusaybin city 3 April, Kulp district 8 April, and Silopi city 14 April. Turkish military continued small-scale ground operations against PKK in rural areas of south east and carried out two air raids on PKK in northern Iraq, including airstrikes 15 April destroyed PKK base south of Qandil and armed drone attack same day targeted the Makhmur camp south west of Erbil. Within Turkey, prosecution on terrorism-related charges continued of eight pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) mayors who govt dismissed in March. In north east Syria, Turkish military targeted Kurdish-led People’s Protection Units (YPG) militants; YPG-attributed car bomb attack in Afrin on 28 April killed at least 42 civilians (see Syria). In Syria’s Idlib province, rebels continued to oppose fragile March Moscow-Ankara ceasefire agreement; Turkish security forces 13 April dispersed sit-in protests, apparently organised by jihadist coalition Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), aimed at halting joint Turkish-Russian patrols. In response, HTS briefly abducted Turkey-backed rebel fighters. Nonetheless, Russia and Turkey 28 April conducted sixth joint patrol in area. As conflict in Libya continued to escalate, Turkey stepped up military support to Tripoli-based Government of National Accord; Turkish F16 fighter jets 18 April carried out first ever military exercise over Misrata (see Libya). Detentions of Islamic State (ISIS) suspects decreased, with only twelve individuals with suspected ISIS links detained during month, including six foreigners. Concerns grew over potential impact of COVID-19 on vulnerable Syrian refugee population in Turkey, as well as strain on economy.

President Erdoğan reached deal with Russian President Putin to cease hostilities in Syria’s Idlib province, and govt continued military operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in south east Turkey and northern Iraq. Erdoğan and Putin 5 March agreed temporary ceasefire deal to end hostilities in Syria’s Idlib province (see Syria). Protesters 15 March blocked joint Turkish-Russian patrol along M4 highway in Idlib province; Turkish and Russian media accused militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham of mobilising local population to obstruct patrol. Govt 19 March announced deaths of two Turkish soldiers in rocket attack by “radical groups” on M4 highway. In PKK conflict, military continued small-scale ground operations in south east Turkey and operations against PKK in northern Iraq. PKK 31 March attacked gas pipeline near Turkey’s border with Iran; Iran said attack halted flow of gas from Iran. Govt maintained efforts to criminalise pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP); authorities 9 March sentenced former HDP mayor of Diyarbakır to nine years imprisonment on PKK-related terrorism charges. Authorities 23 March dismissed eight HDP co-mayors. Turkey and EU engaged at highest level to resolve spat following Ankara’s decision to allow migrants to cross its borders to Greece. Govt sustained crackdown on individuals with suspected links to Islamic State (ISIS); police detained at least 28 people in March with alleged ties to ISIS, including Turkish and foreign nationals.

In Syria’s Idlib province, fighting escalated between Turkish troops and Syrian rebels on one side and Russian-backed regime forces on other, leaving at least 54 Turkish troops dead; Turkey continued to ship arms to Libya and military maintained low-level operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). In Syria, as Russian-backed regime offensive to take Idlib province continued to drive displaced people toward Turkish border, Turkey reinforced its troops. Syrian regime attacks and Russian airstrikes left eighteen Turkish soldiers and three civilian contractors dead early Feb. Following killing of seven Turkish soldiers and one contractor 3 Feb, President Erdoğan gave Syrian regime forces until end of Feb to withdraw behind Turkish observation posts and threatened direct military action. Russian FM 19 Feb announced failure of Russia-Turkey talks to reach agreement over Idlib. After Turkish-backed Syrian rebels 26 Feb recaptured strategic town of Saraqib, Erdoğan same day vowed to “liberate” remaining Turkish observation posts encircled by Syrian regime. Suspected Syrian regime airstrike (possibly backed by Russia) 27 Feb killed at least 33 Turkish troops in Idlib province; Turkey said that in subsequent days it targeted hundreds of regime soldiers in retaliatory strikes. Turkish official 28 Feb announced Ankara would no longer prevent refugees in Turkey from entering Europe; Greek police 29 Feb used tear gas to disperse group of people attempting to cross Greek-Turkish border, flow of people to Greek islands also increased. As Turkey continued to ship military equipment to Libya to support Tripoli-based Govt of National Accord against Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s forces, Turkey 18 Feb criticised EU foreign ministers’ decision previous day to launch naval mission to enforce UN arms embargo on grounds that Haftar’s allies would still be able to deliver support by land and air. Erdoğan 25 Feb confirmed deaths of two Turkish soldiers in Libya. Military continued small-scale operations against PKK militants in south east and reportedly carried out airstrike targeting PKK militants in northern Iraq.

Fatalities in conflict between govt and Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) remained low while security situation in Turkish-controlled territory in Syria continued to be volatile, and parliament approved military deployment to Libya raising stakes in eastern Mediterranean. Harsh winter conditions resulted in fewer casualties in PKK conflict in south east. Interior Ministry 11 Jan announced completion of Operation Kiran after 11th phase of military operation against PKK. Military 10 Jan launched Operation Kapan in attempt to clear out militants from rural areas of southern Hatay, south-eastern Mardin and Batman provinces. President Erdoğan 8 Jan met Russian President Putin in Turkey to discuss military situation in Syria; following meeting, Putin 10 Jan announced ceasefire in Syria’s Idlib province. Temporary ceasefire failed to halt Syrian govt attacks there. Erdoğan 29 Jan criticised Russia for not abiding by its commitments under Sochi and Astana accords in Idlib region. UN same day said violence in Idlib province had displaced nearly 390,000 in past two months. Amid rising number of displaced persons, Erdoğan 31 Jan expressed concern at new threats near Turkey’s border and said Turkey ready to take necessary steps including using military force in Syria. In Turkey-controlled area of north east Syria, Defence Ministry 8 and 16 Jan said seven Turkish soldiers had died in car bomb attacks attributed to Kurdish-led People’s Protection Units. Parliament 2 Jan authorised troop deployment to Libya to support Tripoli-based Govt of National Accord; military has reportedly deployed 80 Turkish officers for training and coordination purposes as well as some 2,000 allied Syrian fighters. Erdoğan 14 Jan vowed Turkey would not refrain from “teaching Haftar a lesson” if latter’s forces maintained offensive on Tripoli (see Libya). FM Çavuşoğlu 18 Jan accused Greece of sabotaging efforts to bring peace to Libya following 17 Jan visit by Haftar to Athens in response to its exclusion from 19 Jan Berlin Conference on Libya; accusation comes amid rising tensions between Turkey and Greece particularly over Turkey-Libya maritime deal (see Cyprus).

Military operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) reduced in intensity in country’s south east and northern Iraq, relations soured with U.S. over further sanctions, and were strained with Russia over Idlib escalation. Fatalities in PKK conflict remained low; security forces focused operations in Tunceli province in south east and maintained air raids and land operations against PKK militants in northern Iraq. Govt sustained efforts to criminalise pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP). Besides continued arrests/detentions of HDP officials and members, eight more trustees were appointed to HDP-run municipalities during month (32 out of 69 municipalities HDP won in March 2019 are now run by trustees). Cooperation continued with Russia in north east (NE) Syria, but was strained over escalation in north west (NW): Turkish defence ministry 8 Dec announced deal with Russia to connect areas under control of Turkish-backed Syrian forces to Syrian regime-controlled power plant and demilitarise M4 highway across northern Syria, while Turkish forces continued joint patrols with Russian military units in NE Syria. Ankara reacted harshly to intensified regime and Russian military operations in Syria’s NW which displaced thousands. The fourteenth round of Syria talks with Turkey, Russia and Iran was held in Kazakhstan 10 Dec (see Syria). Relations with U.S deteriorated as U.S. Congress 17 Dec passed National Defense Authorization Act banning transfer of U.S. F-35 fighter jets to Turkey. Senate 12 Dec passed previously blocked resolution recognising mass killings of Armenians in Ottoman Empire as genocide. President Erdoğan 15 Dec threatened to shut down İncirlik Air Base and Kürecik Radar Station used by U.S and NATO forces. Govt continued crackdown on Islamic State (ISIS) networks; police detained over 100 suspected ISIS-linked individuals in Dec including Turkish and foreign nationals. Relations with EU still strained particularly over Cyprus/East Med gas drilling. Following controversial maritime border deal between Turkey and Libya’s Govt of National Accord (GNA) in Nov, parliamentary debate took place 30 Dec on bill that (if approved 2 Jan) would authorise Turkey to send troops to Libya in support of GNA (see Cyprus and Libya).

Govt continued criminalising pro-Kurdish opposition and intensified crackdown on suspected Islamic State (ISIS) operatives, while military continued operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in south east Turkey and northern Iraq, and began joint patrols with Russia in parts of border areas in Syria’s north east. Fatalities in PKK conflict decreased amid harsher winter conditions; Turkish military 13 Nov launched “Kıran-6” operation against PKK in Van, Hakkari and Şırnak provinces; air raids targeting PKK militants in northern Iraq also continued. Govt intensified efforts to criminalise pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), replacing several more HDP co-mayors with state-appointed trustees. In north east Syria, Turkish and Russian troops 1 Nov carried out first join patrol in designated border areas; as of end-Nov, twelve joint patrols were carried out. Two Turkish soldiers killed by mortar fire in north east Syria 27 Nov. FM Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu 18 Nov threatened further military action if U.S. and Russia fail to ensure full withdrawal of Kurdish-led People’s Protection Units (YPG) from agreed areas (see Syria). President Erdoğan 13 Nov met with U.S. President Trump in Washington DC in attempt to address tensions caused by Turkey’s incursion in Syria, Ankara’s acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems and other points of contention. While both sides expressed intent to improve relations, hardly any concrete progress was marked. Following Oct assassination of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi near border in Syria, govt redoubled crackdown on ISIS networks in Turkey. Turkish forces captured sister of al-Baghdadi in Azaz in north east Syria 4 Nov before arresting 25 other close relatives in Turkey mid-month. More than 100 individuals suspected of ISIS links were also detained during month, while govt intensified repatriation efforts of foreign nationals with ISIS ties. U.S. 19 Nov imposed sanctions on three Turkey-based companies and two Turkish citizens for allegedly providing financial and logistical support to ISIS.

Turkish military incursion into north east Syria increased tensions with Kurdish movement in Turkey and with allies, heightening concerns it could fuel Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) insurgency and enable resurgence of Islamic State (ISIS) threat. Turkish forces 9 Oct launched “Operation Peace Spring” against Kurdish-led People’s Protection Units (YPG) in north east Syria, following phone call between President Erdoğan and U.S. President Trump, and U.S. announcement that it would remove its forces from border areas (see Syria). Stated goals of Turkish operation, conducted alongside Sunni rebel Syrian National Army proxies, included removing YPG from border area (some 30/32km by 440km), combatting “terrorists” and establishing “safe zone” for resettling Syrian refugees; ten Turkish soldiers reported killed in operation by end-Oct, and twenty civilians in Turkish border towns by YPG shelling/shooting. U.S. 15 Oct also briefly imposed sanctions calling for Ankara to halt incursion; Ankara and Washington 17 Oct agreed deal for Turkey to halt offensive for 120 hours to allow YPG forces to withdraw. Erdoğan and Russian President Putin 22 Oct reached agreement giving YPG forces until 29 Oct to withdraw 30km from border to create “safe zone”, with Russian and Syrian govt forces facilitating withdrawal of YPG fighters in border areas outside Turkish control; Turkish military with its Sunni rebel proxies now controls 140km along border from west of Tel Abyad to Ras al-Ayn. International community strongly condemned Turkish incursion, with several European states and Canada suspending arms exports. Military operations inside Turkey against PKK tapered off slightly following start of Syria incursion, while air and land operations against PKK in northern Iraq continued. Govt maintained efforts to criminalise Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) through ongoing detentions and arrests of HDP figures on terrorism-related charges, particularly around launch of Syria incursion which prompted HDP-organised protests. Police continued crackdown on suspected ISIS operatives. Erdoğan condemned U.S. House of Representatives resolution 30 Oct recognising early twentieth century mass killings of Armenians in Ottoman Empire as genocide.

Intensity of conflict between military and Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in south east rose slightly, air raids and land operations targeting PKK militants and positions in northern Iraq continued, joint Turkey-U.S. patrols got underway in north east Syria, and security forces detained prominent Islamic State (ISIS) militants reportedly planning attacks. Amid ongoing clashes between military and PKK, concentrated in Hakkari, Şırnak and Van provinces, roadside IED attack 12 Sept killed seven in Diyarbakır province’s Kulp district. PKK 20 Sept claimed responsibility for attack, saying the individuals targeted were working as informants for state against PKK; attack triggered wave of small-scale anti-PKK protests across south-eastern towns 16 Sept. Govt continued efforts to criminalise and delegitimise pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party. In north-eastern (NE) Syria, Turkish and U.S. forces began joint military operations to set up “safe zone”, carrying out first ground patrol around Tel Abyad 8 Sept. On various occasions during month, Turkish officials threatened to carry out offensive against Kurdish-led People’s Protection Units (YPG) in NE Syria if U.S. fails to keep promises to create “safe zone”; Turkish military reinforcement along border with NE Syria continued (see Syria). Erdoğan 5 Sept requested more support from EU countries both for Syrian refugees in Turkey and to meet needs within Syria of those displaced from Idlib, threatening to open Turkey’s borders to Europe if EU fails to increase assistance. As crackdown on ISIS operatives continued, including arrest of senior ISIS figure and two others reportedly planning attack in Istanbul, ISIS circulated several threat messages across some Turkish provinces pledging allegiance to al-Baghdadi and insinuating future attacks.

Govt kept up military operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and intensified crackdown on people affiliated with Kurdish movement. In south east, govt launched operations against PKK in Şırnak, Hakkari and Van provinces 19 Aug and in Mardin, Şırnak and Batman provinces 28 Aug. Turkish media 8 Aug reported that security forces had “neutralised” two PKK militants allegedly responsible for 17 July killing of Turkish diplomat in Iraqi Kurdistan’s capital Erbil. Govt increased pressure on members of pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP): authorities 15 Aug arrested 21 HDP members in cities of Mardin, Şırnak and Izmir; 19 Aug dismissed newly-elected metropolitan mayors of majority Kurdish provinces Diyarbakır,Mardin and Van on grounds that they were affiliated with terrorist organisations and replaced them with state-appointed trustees; same day detained 418 people affiliated with Kurdish movement in 29 provinces. Authorities 22 Aug detained seventeen in Ankara and 27 in Izmir during protests over removal of Kurdish mayors. Batman province governor’s office removed four elected neighbourhood heads from their posts “due to investigations into them and trials they face on terrorism charges”. In north-western Syria, as regime forces threatened to take Turkish observation post in northern Hama province, Turkey 19 Aug sent military convoy to support rebels; Syrian regime carried out airstrikes targeting convoy, killing three Syrian civilians (see Syria). U.S. and Turkey 7 Aug said they had reached agreement on general framework for way forward in north-eastern Syria, despite continued disagreement over depth of proposed safe zone along Turkey-Syria border and composition of troops that would man it. Turkey and U.S. defence officials 12 Aug started to establish joint operation centre in Şanlıurfa to coordinate safe zone preparations. In Istanbul, authorities 1 Aug said they had transferred to refugee camps 12,474 irregular migrants for deportation and 2,630 unregistered Syrians 12-31 July; interior minister 20 Aug extended to 30 Oct deadline for refugees to leave Istanbul and return to places where they registered. Authorities 8 Aug detained suspected Syrian suicide bomber in Şanlıurfa’s central square; 6-15 Aug arrested 48 suspected Islamic State (ISIS)-linked individuals in Hatay, Konya, Izmir and Adana’s Yüreğir district.

Fighting continued between security forces and Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), tensions rose between Turkish citizens and Syrian refugees, and govt’s purchase of Russian missile defence system continued to fuel tensions with U.S.. Military continued to carry out air and land operations against PKK in Turkey’s south east and northern Iraq; senior PKK figures were among members killed. In Iraqi Kurdistan’s regional capital Erbil, unidentified assailants 17 July killed two people, including Turkish diplomat; Turkish state blamed attack on PKK while PKK leadership denied direct involvement. Authorities maintained crackdown on members of pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP). Following 29 June violent protests against Syrian refugees in Istanbul, authorities 2 July detained sixteen people for inciting hatred on social media. Istanbul governor’s office 22 July set 20 Aug as deadline for Syrian refugees to return to Turkish province in which they registered or face forced return. Syrian opposition activists 22 July reported that Turkish authorities had in July deported 1,000 Syrian refugees to Syria’s Idlib province; Turkish govt 31 July denied reports. Islamic State (ISIS) 10 July released propaganda video in Turkish threatening Turkey and U.S.; authorities 9-18 July arrested 34 suspected ISIS members in Istanbul and Adana, including alleged emir of ISIS’s Turkey branch. After Russia 12 July began delivery of its S-400 surface-to-air missile defence system to Turkey, U.S. President Trump 16 July banned Turkey from buying American F-35 fighter jets. U.S. administration and Congress deliberated over set of sanctions to impose on Turkey under Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). In response to Turkey’s continued efforts to locate and extract hydrocarbons off Cyprus in East Mediterranean, EU’s Committee of Permanent Representatives (COREPER) 15 July imposed sanctions on Turkey including cut in pre-accession assistance for 2020 by €145.8mn citing Ankara’s violation of Republic of Cyprus’s sovereignty (see Cyprus).