Main opposition party’s candidate won re-run of Istanbul mayoral elections, military continued operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) insurgency, and tensions increased with U.S. over Ankara’s purchase of Russian missile systems. Opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu won 23 June re-run of Istanbul’s mayoral election with 54%; following appeal by ruling party Justice and Development Party (AKP), High Election Board had cancelled results of first vote in March, which opposition won with 48.8%. AKP’s candidate Binali Yildirim and President Erdoğan conceded defeat. Military continued to carry out operations against PKK in south east, along Black Sea in north, and near Iran border in east: insurgents killed fifteen security force members in June and two civilians 10 June. Crackdown continued against members of pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) and activists supporting Kurdish movement. In northern Iraq, Turkish warplanes hit PKK targets in several regions. In north west Syria, Turkey and Russia 12 June announced they had brokered ceasefire between Syrian govt and opposition forces in Idlib, but fighting continued. Next day Syrian pro-govt forces attacked Turkish observation post, injuring three soldiers; followed by 27 June attack, killing one Turkish soldier (see Syria). President Erdoğan reiterated 4 June that govt would go ahead with purchase of S-400 missile defence systems from Moscow. In response, U.S. 7 June said it would “suspend indefinitely” training of Turkish pilots on F-35 fighter jets and discontinue F-35 material deliveries unless Ankara cancelled deal. Erdoğan met U.S. and Russian presidents during G20 summit in Japan 28-29 June and discussed Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400s. Court in Istanbul 25 June released from house arrest U.S. Consulate employee being tried on terrorism charges. Authorities 21 May-27 June detained 119, and arrested at least 35 suspected Islamic State (ISIS) members in more than ten different cities, including Mersin, Adana, Kilis, Urfa. Tensions rose between Turkey and Republic of Cyprus over gas exploration off island (see Cyprus).

Military operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and cross-border air raids against targets in northern Iraq continued, electoral board ordered re-run of Istanbul local election in which ruling party had been defeated, and U.S.-Turkey relations remained strained over purchase of Russian missiles. Fatalities from security operations against PKK in south east increased slightly. Authorities allowed jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan to meet his lawyers for first time in eight years 2 May; Öcalan released statement calling for thousands of Kurdish movement supporters on hunger strike to end strike, which they did. Authorities 16 May lifted ban on lawyer and family visits to Öcalan. Turkish military 27 May launched “Operation Claw” carrying out land and air raids against PKK targets in northern Iraq’s Hakurk region. High Election Board 6 May cancelled 31 March mayoral polls in Istanbul and ordered re-run on 23 June due to alleged irregularities, annulling victory of opposition Republican People’s Party’s (CHP); caused small-scale protests in various districts of Istanbul. Ankara’s purchase of Russian S-400 air defence missile system continued to strain relations with Washington. President Erdoğan 18 May proposed to Russia co-production of S-500s once delivery of S-400s is complete. Authorities 17-18 May detained eleven suspected Islamic State (ISIS) members in Konya and Mersin, and arrested nine suspected ISIS members in Şanlıurfa 27 May.

Security forces continued operations against the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) in south east Turkey and northern Iraq, while contested results for Istanbul in 31 March local elections led to increased domestic tensions, and relations with U.S. remained strained over purchase of Russian air defence systems. In south east, operations against PKK continued: four Turkish soldiers were killed in PKK attack on military base in Hakkâri 19 April. Turkish military responded with ground operations in south east and air raids into northern Iraq targeting PKK. Tensions followed 31 March local elections as ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) contested opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP)’s narrow victory in Istanbul, alleging election irregularities. High Election Board (YSK) partial recount resulted in narrowed margin of victory for CHP; AKP and MHP also demanded re-run of Istanbul vote. In majority-Kurdish south east, AKP increased its overall vote share especially in rural areas, while pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) largely maintained or increased its votes in urban areas. YSK 10 April refused to grant mandates to HDP mayors-elect in six district municipalities in Erzurum, Van and Diyarbakır, and two town municipalities in Kars and Siirt, allowing AKP runners-up to assume mandates. In Ankara, mob 21 April attacked CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu during the funeral of a Turkish soldier; police briefly detained nine people, including an AKP member who was seen punching Kılıçdaroğlu. Meeting with Russian President Putin in Moscow 8 April, President Erdoğan announced imminent delivery of Russian S-400 air defence systems, also discussing situation in northern Syria’s Idlib province and Russia-Turkey Investment Fund. This followed U.S.’s 2 April pledge to suspend transfer of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey, amid U.S. warnings that S-400s are not compatible NATO systems.

Operations against Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) continued in south east and in northern Iraq, authorities maintained crackdown on pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) and Kurdish movement sympathisers, and tensions increased with U.S. over Syria and Ankara’s purchase of Russian missile systems. In south east, security forces continued operations against PKK, with casualties remaining low. Turkish military cross-border air raids 3-6 March targeted PKK positions in northern Iraq’s Haftanin and Hakurk areas. Govt crackdown on HDP and its municipal affiliate continued ahead of 31 March municipal elections. Early results 31 March suggested President Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost mayoral race in Ankara and Istanbul to opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), despite AKP’s electoral alliance securing 51.63% of national vote; pro-Kurdish HDP retained key strongholds in south east, including Diyarbakır, Mardin, and Van, while losing Şırnak, Ağrı, and Bitlis. Strains on U.S.-Turkey relations increased: following Washington’s 22 Feb announcement to maintain residual contingent of forces in support of Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) in northern Syria, Erdoğan 4 March reiterated intention to conduct Turkish military operation to expel YPG from Syria’s north east. Following meetings with U.S. officials in Ankara, Erdoğan 6 March refused to cancel purchase of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile system and expressed interest in procuring anti-ballistic S-500 missiles from Moscow at later date; U.S. 9 March warned deal would undermine military cooperation within NATO and jeopardise delivery of F-35s and Patriot missiles to Turkey. Counterterrorism efforts against jihadist cells and foreign terrorist fighters continued; authorities 13 March arrested fourteen foreign nationals in Ankara and a Danish citizen in Bursa, all suspected Islamic State (ISIS) members.

Intensity of Turkish military’s security operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in south east remained low with few fatalities, while air raids by Turkish military targeting PKK positions in northern Iraq continued. Ahead of 31 March municipal elections, govt intensified crackdown on pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) members and suspected PKK sympathisers. Court 14 Feb sentenced two HDP MPs to fifteen and eighteen months in prison over terrorism charges. Differences between Ankara and Washington over U.S. withdrawal and “safe zone” in north east Syria (see Syria) continued; President Erdoğan 5 Feb criticised U.S. for delays in withdrawal of militants belonging to the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) from U.S.-patrolled town of Manbij and for lack of clarity on safe zone; also renewed threats to carry out military offensive in area to clear YPG, and vowed to set up “terror-free zone”. Erdoğan 14 Feb discussed situation in Syria’s Idlib province with Iranian and Russian presidents in Sochi, Russia, stressing that joint operations by Turkey, Russia and Iran against jihadist alliance Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) possible if needed. Inside Turkey, detentions of alleged Islamic State (ISIS) and HTS-linked individuals continued, including armed forces’ capture of four ISIS suspects 3 Feb and four HTS suspects 7 Feb attempting to enter Syria.

Intensity of military’s security operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in south east remained low with few fatalities, while deadly Turkish air raids against PKK in northern Iraq prompted angry response by alleged PKK-sympathising Iraqi group. Major cross-border air raid in northern Iraq 20 Jan reportedly killed six; sources close to PKK claimed they were civilians, Turkish army said they were PKK militants. Hundreds of protesters 26 Jan stormed Turkish military base in Iraq’s Dohuk province; at least one killed and ten injured in clashes. Crackdown on individuals allegedly linked to PKK continued across Turkey. Authorities 12 Jan allowed imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan to be visited by his brother Mehmet for first time in two and a half years. Hundreds of figures from the People’s Democratic Party (HDP)’s municipal affiliate party remain imprisoned ahead of March municipal elections. Strains in Turkish-U.S. relationship continued following U.S. statements that its planned withdrawal from Syria was conditional on Turkish guarantee not to attack “Kurdish fighters” (see Syria). Ankara expressed anger at remarks, renewing threat to carry out military offensive in north east Syria and reiterating Turkey’s main goal to clear “terrorist groups”. President Erdoğan and U.S. President Trump 14 Jan discussed possible 20-mile “safe zone” in north east Syria; following 16 Jan Islamic State (ISIS)-claimed bomb in Manbij that killed sixteen including four U.S. soldiers, Erdoğan said Turkey would start military takeover of Manbij if U.S. did not protect its borders via safe zone. Erdoğan and Russian President Putin met in Moscow 23 Jan; agreed on closer military cooperation in Syria’s Idlib, however Putin reaffirmed Moscow’s support for dialogue between Damascus and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). As alternative to U.S. safe zone, Putin also said 1998 Adana agreement between Turkey and Syria could serve as basis of Ankara’s efforts to secure its borders and “fight terrorism”. Inside Turkey, security forces 13 Jan conducted first crackdown against jihadist alliance Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) – which currently controls most of Idlib zone – targeting “civilian” cells in Adana, Istanbul and Ankara allegedly providing support to militants in Syria.

President Erdoğan said Ankara would postpone planned military offensive against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in north-eastern Syria following unexpected U.S. announcement of withdrawal of troops from Syria. Following series of statements by U.S. officials during month suggesting U.S. was determined to continue backing SDF in Syria, Erdoğan 12 Dec said Ankara would launch an offensive against SDF east of Euphrates River “within days”. Announcement initially prompted U.S. to voice “grave concern” over risks for U.S. military personnel; then on 19 Dec, U.S. President Trump unexpectedly announced full and rapid withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria, following call with Erdoğan during which they also agreed on sale of U.S. Patriot air defence system to Turkey. Erdoğan 21 Dec said Turkey would postpone the announced offensive against the SDF “for a while”; also said relations with U.S. now at “desired level”. Despite statement, Syrian Observatory for Human Rights 23 Dec reported Turkish military build-up at front line of SDF-controlled town of Manbij; Syria’s military 28 Dec entered Manbij area amid calls from Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) for help against threat of attack by Turkey. In Turkey’s south east – likely due to harsh winter conditions – clashes between military and Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) saw a downturn, while Turkish air raids against PKK in northern Iraq intensified. Turkish military carried out five major cross-border air raids against PKK in northern Iraq; Iraqi authorities 14 Dec summoned Turkish ambassador in Baghdad to protest airstrikes; Turkey 15 Dec said it remained determined to continue cross-border “anti-terror” operations against PKK in Iraq’s Sinjar region. Efforts for constructive engagement between EU and Turkey continued with EU foreign policy chief Mogherini’s late Nov visit to Ankara resulting in some progress toward visa liberalisation.

Month saw continued security operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in south east Turkey and northern Iraq, and crackdown on Kurdish movement representatives and individuals suspected to have links to PKK as well as human rights activists; tensions in Turkey-U.S. relations still run high, though month marked cooperation in some areas. Military operations against PKK in south east saw fatalities slightly higher than previous month, concentrated in rural areas of Şırnak and Hakkari. Interior ministry 2 Nov announced police in Oct had detained 687 suspects and arrested 125 for alleged links to PKK. Authorities detained at least 40 members of pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) and sister Democratic Regions’ Party (DBP) in Mersin, Batman, Ankara, Izmir and Istanbul. U.S. embassy 6 Nov announced a $12mn reward for information on three leading PKK figures; govt called decision “positive, but belated”, signifying effort to “mask” U.S. support for Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) in Syria. 26 Nov establishment of five U.S. military observation posts in north-east Syria raised concern in Ankara over U.S. backing for YPG. Increased U.S.-Turkey cooperation also included 1 Nov launch of joint patrols in Manbij; mutual lifting of sanctions on ministers 2 Nov; and U.S. decision 5 Nov to exempt Turkey from sanctions on imports of Iranian crude oil; but differences remain including over north-east Syria and Ankara’s purchase of Russian S-400 missile systems. Crackdown on Islamic State (ISIS) continued; military 6 Nov reportedly detained 24 suspected ISIS sympathisers in simultaneous operations in Diyarbakır province. Govt crackdown on human rights activists intensified, with authorities 16 Nov detaining thirteen activists and staff of NGOs on – among others – charges of “deepening and spreading Gezi protests”; twelve released pending trial after interrogation, one arrested, prompting strong criticism from EU institutions and member states.

Month saw continued military operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in south-east Turkey and northern Iraq and uptick in crackdown on suspected PKK sympathisers; spike in tensions with Saudi Arabia over Khashoggi killing; and implementation of deal on removal of heavy weapons from Syria’s Idlib province alleviating immediate concerns over refugee influx. Eight soldiers killed 4 Oct in PKK-claimed attack in Batman, triggering wave of detentions of suspected PKK sympathisers, with almost 400 detained by 10 Oct; govt dismissed 559 village guards and suspended 259 neighbourhood heads for alleged PKK links. In crackdown on pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) Diyarbakır head arrested on terrorism charges 9 Oct. Ahead of March 2019 municipal elections, President Erdoğan 7 Oct said, “If those involved with terror are elected we will do what is needed and replace them with [state-appointed] trustees”. Turkish military carried out three major cross-border air raids against PKK in northern Iraq; and late Oct reportedly hit People’s Protection Units (YPG) targets located east of Euphrates at Turkey-Syria border. Implementation of Sept deal between Russia and Turkey on demilitarised buffer zone in Syria’s rebel-held Idlib province continued, forestalling mass influx of refugees (see Syria). Turkey, Russia, France and Germany agreed joint communiqué at summit in Istanbul 27 Oct calling for “inclusive, Syrian-led and Syrian-owned political process” and emphasising “need to create conditions throughout the country for the safe and voluntary return of refugees”. Turkish officials expressed dissatisfaction with “U.S. delaying tactic” in implementation of so-called “Manbij roadmap” despite launch of training for joint U.S.-Turkish patrols in Manbij. Tensions with Saudi Arabia spiked as Turkey accused Riyadh of murdering Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi at Istanbul consulate 2 Oct, and provided details to press on alleged torture and dismemberment of body (see Saudi Arabia). Tensions with U.S. eased somewhat after Ankara 12 Oct released U.S. Pastor Andrew Brunson, although differences remain over key strategic issues. Relations with EU improved following Ankara’s efforts to mend ties with key EU capitals.

Govt continued military operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in south-east Turkey and northern Iraq. Turkish Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu 18 Sept said PKK was “taking its last breaths” and “this winter will be difficult [for the PKK]”, demonstrating Ankara’s determination to continue pushing for military solution. Ankara welcomed appointment of new UN Special Envoy for Syria, former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey James Jeffery, who in 4 Sept meeting with Turkish defence minister reportedly emphasised importance of continued U.S.-Turkish cooperation on Syria. President Erdoğan and Russian President Putin 17 Sept signed agreement for demilitarised buffer zone to allow for “radical” rebels and heavy weaponry to be “removed” from rebel-held north-western governorate of Idlib, alleviating concerns over possible refugee influx from what appeared to be an imminent Syrian regime offensive. Disagreement between Ankara and Washington over U.S. support for People’s Protection Units (YPG) in northern Syria continued. Erdoğan 24 Sept said Ankara could take military action against YPG in north-eastern Syria. Relations with EU and some EU capitals showed signs of improvement during month.