Month saw continued clashes between military and Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), pressure on pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) and operations against PKK targets in northern Iraq, as well as concern over risks stemming from an all-out regime offensive against Idlib in northwest Syria, and tensions with the U.S.. Military operations against PKK in south east continued, with almost 40 casualties reported during month, mostly PKK militants. Crackdown on pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) and sister Democratic Regions’ Party (DBP) continued. Two former HDP MPs were arrested 13 Aug on charges of “terrorism propaganda” over content of recent speeches; DBP co-mayor and HDP local official were among twelve arrested for suspected involvement in alleged PKK bomb attack 16 Aug. Ground operation in northern Iraq continued along with major air operations against PKK targets; President Erdoğan and Iraqi PM Abadi 14 Aug agreed on full cooperation against PKK. Amid spectre of all-out Russian-backed assault by Syrian regime on Syrian opposition stronghold Idlib, north-west Syria (see Syria) and fears of accompanying influx of refugees into Turkey, Ankara 15 Aug called on Syrian regime to terminate its military operation in Idlib and made diplomatic efforts with Russia to broker deal. Despite ongoing cooperation in Syria’s Manbij, U.S.-Turkey frictions increased: U.S. 1 Aug imposed sanctions on Turkish justice and interior ministers over Turkey’s refusal to free jailed U.S. pastor Andrew Brunson, subject of 3 Aug discussion between FMs, while diplomatic delegations met in Washington 7 Aug in attempt to resolve crisis. U.S. 10 Aug doubled tariffs on Turkish aluminium and steel products, contributing to sharp devaluation of Turkish Lira during first half of Aug; Trump 13 Aug signed bill blocking Turkey’s access to F-35 fighter jets; Erdoğan 14 Aug called for boycott of U.S. electronic products and 15 Aug hiked tariffs on U.S. products. Ankara 22 Aug accused U.S. of waging “economic war”, 27 Aug said U.S. sanctions could destabilise region, and exacerbate terrorism and refugee crisis. Lira slightly recovered toward end of month after Central Bank measures and Qatari Emir’s 15 Aug pledge for $15bn in direct investment. Turkish court 14 Aug ordered release of two Greek soldiers held since March for illegal border crossing and military espionage.

Number of fatalities and attacks in conflict between Turkey and Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in south east went down compared to previous month; fatalities were concentrated in rural areas of Hakkari and Diyarbakır. By three-year anniversary of breakdown of ceasefire with PKK 20 July, Crisis Group had recorded almost 4,000 fatalities. Military conducted at least five major air operations hitting PKK targets in northern Iraq around Qandil during month. Govt crackdown on Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) continued: court 10 July sentenced two previous HDP deputies to fifteen months in prison based on claims they disobeyed law on meetings and demonstrations; authorities launched investigations into four newly elected HDP MPs over “terrorist propaganda” charges after they attended funerals of PKK militants. Govt 18 July lifted state of emergency introduced following July 2016 coup attempt, in move expected to ease economic and political tensions, however ruling Justice and Development Party (AK) 25 July passed bill amending Turkey’s anti-terror law retaining some contentious provisions. Anti-Islamic State (ISIS) operations continued with further arrests. In northern Syria, Turkey and U.S. continued coordinated patrols around Manbij as part of their negotiated roadmap (see Syria). Relations with U.S. remain strained; FM Çavuşoglu confirmed during 11-12 July NATO summit that Turkey would complete contentious purchase of Russian S-400 missiles by end-2019. Tensions increased after Turkish court 25 July ruled to put jailed U.S. Pastor Andrew Brunson under house arrest (U.S. had expected his release). President Erdoğan met Russian President Putin on sidelines of BRICS summit in Johannesburg 26 July, reportedly discussing bilateral ties, Syria and upcoming Tehran summit (as part of Astana process dialogue on Syria conflict). Cooperation with EU on Syrian refugees continued with EU’s late June allocation of second tranche of €3bn to assist with Syrian refugees’ basic needs and integration. Tensions between Syrian refugees and host communities flared 2 July with fight in Bursa city, south of Istanbul, prompting some 500 residents to protest Syrian presence and vandalise Syrian-owned shops.

President Erdoğan won 24 June general election with 52.5% of vote, ahead of Republican People’s Party (CHP) candidate Muharrem İnce’s 30.7%. Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) won 293 of 600 parliament seats, and AKP ally Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) 50 seats; CHP won 146 seats; and pro-Kurdish Free Democratic Party (HDP) 67 seats. Amid intensified pressure on Kurdish movement in run-up to 24 June general election, HDP 13 June announced at least 208 party members were detained and 57 offices and booths attacked during campaign period; tensions turned violent 16 June when clash between pro-HDP shopkeepers and AKP delegation in south-eastern HDP-stronghold of Suruç left four dead, including three HDP supporters and brother of an AKP MP. Campaign period also saw opening up of renewed debate on Kurdish demands, with some candidates adopting more constructive stance on Kurdish issue. Security operations in south east against Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) continued with threefold increase in casualties compared to May, concentrated in rural areas Hakkari and Şırnak. Turkey’s offensive into northern Iraq targeting PKK positions also intensified. Turkey and U.S. 4 June reached roadmap agreement on Manbij district, northern Syria, to ensure withdrawal of Syrian Kurdish militia YPG (People’s Protection Units). UN 11 June expressed concern that fighting and airstrikes in Syria’s Idlib province would create new influx of refugees into Turkey. Reported incidents between Syrian refugees and host communities increased slightly; three killed as argument in southern city Gaziantep escalated into shooting. U.S. Senate 18 June passed bill blocking sale of F-35 jets to Turkey in response to govt’s purchase of air defence missile systems from Russia; relations with U.S. further complicated by ongoing tensions surrounding hydrocarbon drilling in Aegean Sea (see Cyprus). Detentions and arrests of ISIS suspects continued.

Security operations in Turkey’s south east against militants of the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) – listed as a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the U.S. and the EU – continued with less fatalities compared to previous month. Ahead of 24 June presidential and parliamentary elections, govt continued crackdown on pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) stripping two more members of MP status, bringing total to eleven (out of 59). Erdoğan 4 May said Turkey will maintain military presence in Syria’s Afrin until area secured, adding that “Idlib, Tal Rifaat and Manbij will be next” (FM Çavuşoğlu is set to visit Washington 4 June to meet U.S. Sec State Mike Pompeo to, among others, discuss issue of Manbij). Military 16 May announced it had finished establishing security posts in Syria’s Idlib province. Govt reported that some 150,000 Syrian refugees had returned to Syria from Turkey over past eighteen months, particularly after Afrin operation. Detentions and arrests of suspected ISIS militants continued, including senior ISIS figure Ismail Alwaan al-Ithawi, who foreign ministry reported was captured following joint operation with U.S. and Iraqi intelligence. Govt and President Erdoğan criticised President Trump’s 8 May decision to withdraw from Iran nuclear deal. Relations with U.S. were further strained particularly after 14 May opening of U.S. embassy to Israel in Jerusalem, which prompted govt to recall its ambassadors to U.S. and Israel and declare three days of national mourning over deaths in Gaza (see Israel/Palestine); Turkish foreign ministry 15 May instructed Israeli ambassador to Ankara and Israeli consul general to leave Turkey. Tensions with Greece over Aegean Sea de-escalated somewhat; Turkish and Greek military chiefs of staff met on sidelines of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) meeting in Brussels 16 May.

Military operations in south east continued, with near fourfold increase in fatalities in March and April (30 state security force members, at least 41 Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militants, three civilians) compared to Jan-Feb (nine security force members, at least eleven PKK militants). Fatalities in April concentrated mostly in Şırnak, Hakkari and Hatay. Military continued cross-border attacks in northern Iraq targeting PKK positions; security sources 28 March reported military establishing new base in Hakkari’s Şemdinli district near Iraqi border to combat PKK. Crackdown on Kurdish movement members/sympathisers continued. President Erdoğan 18 April called for early presidential and parliamentary elections to be held 24 June. Govt extended state of emergency for seventh time hours after election announcement, prompting small-scale opposition protests across country. EU annual progress report 17 April for Turkey, considered most negative to date, underlined govt’s “legitimate right to fight against terrorism” and praised efforts to integrate Syrian refugees, but was highly critical of country’s democratic trajectory, erosion of rule of law and limiting of freedoms, argued that Turkey moving away from EU; also stressed that security measures should be proportionate; highlighted problem of immunity of security forces for reported killings in anti-PKK operations. Tensions between Greece and Turkey mounted as latter continued to hold two Greek soldiers who crossed into Turkish territory early March. Greece 10 April shot at Turkish helicopter near islet of Ro; Greek fighter jet 12 April crashed into Aegean while returning from intercept mission, resulting in death of pilot. Turkish media reported 27 April that security forces had caught Islamic State (ISIS) suspect in western Izmir province who reportedly had functioned as organisation’s “emir” in Syria’s Deir al-Zour, and mingled with Syrian refugees attempting to cross to Europe.

Military operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militants in south east continued, mostly in rural areas of Diyarbakır province. Military 1 March carried out cross-border airstrikes targeting PKK positions in northern Iraq, after PKK militants reportedly opened fire at Turkish military post at Iraq border. Turkish military together with Syrian Sunni rebels 18 March took control of Afrin centre in north west Syria from Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and 24 March announced it had taken entire region. President Erdoğan said Turkey would next target Kurdish fighters in Manbij, prompting concerns over possible confrontation with U.S. troops; Erdoğan 25 March said Ankara was ready to launch an operation in Iraq’s northern Sinjar region, where he said PKK was creating a new base. Amid continued strained relations, U.S. and Turkey held first working-level meeting of three bilateral technical committees established to improve relations in Washington 8-9 March, discussing issues including operations in Syria and Iraq. Parliament 12 March passed bill overhauling election law, which inter alia allows authorities to relocate ballot boxes from “insecure areas” and enables law enforcement officials to directly monitor voting process, heightening concerns about election irregularities particularly in south east. Ankara 7 March submitted position paper to European Commission detailing seven steps to fulfil remaining criteria for lifting Schengen visa requirements for Turkish citizens, including minor change to anti-terror law. At EU-Turkey summit 26 March, both sides agreed on need for better relations and increased cooperation, though with no concrete progress on key issues. European Commission 14 March officially proposed to mobilise funds for second €3bn tranche for Facility for Refugees in Turkey. Tensions increased with Greece over hydrocarbon reserves off Cyprus (see Cyprus) and Turkey’s early March detention of two Greek soldiers who Ankara accused of “espionage”, while soldiers claimed they had accidentally strayed into Turkish territory during a patrol.

Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) claimed 1 Feb explosion at tax office in Ankara which slightly injured three civilians. Military operations against PKK militants in rural areas of south east continued but with few fatalities, most likely due to harsh winter conditions and shift of focus to Ankara’s Afrin operation which began 20 Jan. Crackdown against Democratic People’s Party (HDP) functionaries and Kurdish movement members continued, including launch of criminal investigation into newly-elected HDP co-chair Pervin Buldan and MP Sırrı Süreyya Önder over their criticism of military operation in Afrin during HDP party congress 11 Feb. Some 900 individuals, mostly Kurdish movement members or supporters, detained during month charged with spreading “terrorism propaganda” for sharing social media posts critical of Afrin operation. Ankara continued military incursion into northern Syria’s Afrin district (see Syria); military 25 Feb announced it had “neutralised” more than 2,000 militants so far; 26 Feb reportedly took control of area around Afrin, circling it from three sides. Turkish media 24 Feb reported 32 soldiers killed in operation. President Erdoğan 20 Feb said offensive would continue into Afrin city centre. Erdoğan and other officials during month said they would move forward with operation into Manbij to expel Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). Turkish-U.S. relations remained strained: Ankara reacted strongly to Pentagon’s 12 Feb request for some $300mn to train and equip YPG-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), while U.S. complained Afrin operation was hampering efforts to maintain focus on fight against ISIS and had increased security risk for U.S. special forces; U.S. Secretary State Rex Tillerson’s 15-16 Feb visit to Ankara helped ease tensions. Crackdown on individuals suspected to have connections to jihadist networks in Turkey continued, including reported detention of over 100 ISIS suspects, mostly foreign nationals, during police operations in Istanbul 2 and 17 Feb.

Turkish military 20 Jan launched “Olive Branch” land and air operation against Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) positions in Afrin, north-western Syria, in conjunction with Turkey-backed Sunni rebel groups. Ankara cited need to maintain security of Turkey’s border provinces, prevent Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) from reaching eastern Mediterranean and infiltrating Turkey, and counter what it called U.S. support for terrorist organisation. Move followed statement from U.S.-led coalition spokesperson 13 Jan that they were working with YPG-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to set up new 30,000-strong border force, with Kurds serving in areas in northern Syria. U.S. Secretary of State Tillerson 18 Jan denied U.S. had any intention of building Syria-Turkey border security force. Ankara 30 Jan said five soldiers and 24 Turkey-backed rebels had been killed in fighting. Erdoğan vowed that Manbij would be next military target in northern Syria, citing broken promises over YPG withdrawal, and said Turkish military could continue east to Iraq (see Syria). Four YPG-attributed missile attacks hit residential border areas in Kilis province 21 Jan. Five civilians including one Syrian killed in cross-border YPG-attributed attacks on residential border areas in Hatay and Kilis since beginning of Afrin operation. Interior ministry 29 Jan announced 311 people had been detained for making terror propaganda on social media regarding Afrin operation; most of those charged had criticised operation or made anti-war comments. Security operations by the military in rural south east continued throughout month. Military also continued to carry out cross-border airstrikes targeting PKK positions in northern Iraq. Parliament 18 Jan voted to extend state of emergency for sixth three-month period.

Security operations by Turkish military in south east continued, with lower fatalities – compared to previous month – among security forces and Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militants, likely due to harsh winter conditions. Fatalities concentrated in rural areas of Şırnak, Mardin and Hatay, and reportedly include some key PKK militants. Crisis Group figures show ratio of militant to security force fatalities went up from 1.3 in 2016 to 3.1 in 2017. PM Yıldırım 1 Dec said security operations had weakened PKK to point where there was “no possibility” for it to recover. Istanbul police 13 Dec announced they foiled alleged PKK-planned attack on Organisation of Islamic Cooperation summit. In continuing crackdown against Kurdish movement and alleged PKK sympathisers, court 1 Dec jailed five Kurdish movement-affiliated DBP (Democratic Regions Party) functionaries in Şanlıurfa on charges of “spreading terrorist propaganda”. President Erdoğan and other officials continued to accuse EU of supporting PKK on various occasions during month. European Parliament 22 Nov endorsed proposal to “systematically deny access to all persons, groups or entities” affiliated with organisations recognised as “terrorist” by EU. EU Counter-Terrorism Coordinator late Nov visited Ankara to forge cooperation on countering violent extremism. Tensions with U.S. rose as Ankara condemned U.S. President Trump’s 6 Dec announcement to recognise Jerusalem as capital of Israel. Turkey and U.S. 28 Dec lifted remaining visa restrictions imposed late Oct. Turkey and Russia signed agreement 29 Dec for Russia to supply Turkey with S-400 surface-to-air missiles. Erdoğan 30 Dec said Turkey would do to Kurdish People’s Protection Unit (YPG) in Syria “that we did to Daesh”, and secure its borders. Turkish media 18 Dec reported 781km of planned 911km wall along Turkey’s Syria border completed. Social tensions between refugees and host communities continued, though with fewer reported violent incidents than in previous month.

Military operations in south east continued: clashes in Hakkari’s Şemdinli district 2 Nov between security forces and Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militants reportedly crossing border from Iraq killed two village guards and six soldiers; President Erdoğan next day vowed to “smash all terrorist camps” threatening Turkey from Iraq and Syria. Turkish security forces reportedly seized bomb-laden drone allegedly belonging to PKK in Ağrı province early Nov. Govt 14 Nov announced death in Şırnak of high-ranking member of PKK’s senior council Hülya Eroğlu; chief prosecutor’s office 18 Nov filed criminal complaint against three Democratic People’s Party (HDP) MPs for attending Eroğlu’s funeral. Following Oct spat, U.S. embassy in Turkey 6 Nov announced plan to partially resume visa services; Turkey’s embassy in U.S. reciprocated same day. Visiting Washington 7-11 Nov, PM Yıldırım reiterated demands for extradition of Fethullah Gülen, alleged mastermind of July 2016 coup attempt, and called on U.S. to stop support for Kurdish People’s Protection Unit (YPG) in Syria; said Turkey’s defence cooperation with Russia did not undermine NATO alliance. Turkey, Russia and Iran 22 Nov held high-level summit in Sochi, Russia, to discuss future of Syria (see Syria). Turkish foreign minister 24 Nov announced that U.S. President Trump promised in phone call that U.S. will no longer provide weapons to YPG; however Pentagon 27 Nov said it was “reviewing pending adjustments to the military support”. Turkish military continued operation in Syria’s Idlib province. YPG 20 Nov reportedly launched five mortar attacks targeting Turkish military positions on Idlib-Afrin line. Turkey’s National Security Council 28 Nov discussed expanding Idlib operation to areas around Afrin and western Aleppo. Number of incidents between refugees and hosts decreased from Oct; some 200 people 4 Nov attacked Syrian homes and shops in Konya’s Karatay district, injuring one. EU 19 Nov announced €105mn cuts in pre-accession assistance to Turkey due to deterioration of democracy, rule of law and human rights. PM Yıldırım 27 Nov threatened to withdraw from EU refugee deal if YPG/PYD is given role in Syrian peace talks.