Twin bombing in central Istanbul 10 Dec killed 36 police and eight civilians and wounded over 150; PKK affiliate Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK) claimed responsibility. Crackdown on Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) and Democratic Regions Party (DBP) representatives intensified after attack, including two HDP MPs arrested 13 Dec. Counter-terrorism police also detained 924 people on charges of PKK membership and terrorist propaganda, some for posts on social media. Suicide car bomb targeting bus carrying off-duty soldiers killed fourteen and wounded 55 in Central Anatolian city Kayseri 17 Dec; TAK claimed responsibility. Following attack, nationalist mobs targeted nineteen HDP offices around country and party HQ. Clashes between state security forces and PKK militants in SE continued at lower intensity. At least 39, including 24 foreign nationals, killed and 69 wounded in Islamic State-claimed attack on nightclub in Istanbul during New Year celebrations. Turkish military operation to take control of al-Bab in N Syria continued (see Syria). Ankara engaged in intense diplomatic efforts with Russia, Iran, U.S. and European capitals to secure evacuation of civilians/rebel militants from E Aleppo during month. Turkish police officer 19 Dec shot dead Russian ambassador speaking at gallery in Ankara in apparent protest against Russian military role in Syria; Moscow and Ankara next day said murder would not affect bilateral relations or cooperation on Syria. National Security Council 30 Nov announced commitment to prevent PKK/PYD establishing new stronghold in Iraq’s Sinjar province “by all means necessary”. Parliamentary commission 30 Dec approved constitutional reforms that would give president executive powers with weak checks and balances and decrease powers of parliament; draft bill to be debated in parliament Jan.

Govt continued to prosecute political representatives of Kurdish political movement, with arrest of ten Kurdish parliamentarians including Democratic People’s Party (HDP) co-chairs Selahattin Demirtaş and Figen Yüksekdağ 4 Nov after they did not appear in court to give testimony over terror charges for alleged ties to Kurdish PKK insurgency. Democratic Regions Party (DBP) co-chair 31 Oct announced 700 party officials under arrest, with 42 DBP municipal co-chairs arrested between Sept and 28 Nov. HDP announced it would halt legislative efforts but will not withdraw from parliament. Fighting between state security forces and PKK militants continued with clashes and attacks resulting in death of 19 state security force members, at least 44 PKK/PKK affiliated militants, and 14 civilians during month. Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK) claimed responsibility for attack in Diyarbakır in SE 4 Nov in which vehicle bomb explosion killed eleven people and injured over 100. Vehicle-borne explosion outside governor’s office in southern Adana province 24 Nov killed two and injured 33; govt attributed attack to PKK. Interior Ministry 11 Nov shut down 370 associations with alleged links to PKK and other groups state defines as “terrorist”, prompting criticism from rights groups and liberals. Turkey’s Euphrates Shield joint operation with Syrian rebels made progress towards al-Bab city held by Islamic State (IS) (see Syria). U.S. and Turkish military chiefs meeting in Ankara 6 Nov reportedly discussed Turkish concerns over new operation by Kurdish People’s Protection Unit (YPG)-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to recapture IS-held Raqqa. Turkey increased military build-up along its Iraqi border early Nov reportedly in response to advances by Iraqi Shia militias on IS-held Mosul in Iraq since late Oct. Turkish military crackdown on IS cells in Turkey continued. Relations between Turkey and the EU further deteriorated amid EU criticism of crackdown on political opposition including arrest of HDP MPs. President Erdoğan rejected criticisms, accused EU of not supporting Turkey enough in fight against terrorism. European Commission 9 Nov released 2016 progress report on Turkey, most negative to date; European Parliament 24 Nov voted to freeze membership talks with Turkey over post-coup crackdown; Erdoğan responded 25 Nov threatening to open up flow of estimated 3 million refugees into Europe.

Clashes between state security forces and PKK militants continued in south east at high intensity, together with attacks resulting in death of 49 state security force members, at least 67 PKK/PKK-affiliated militants, and at least fifteen civilians during month. PKK militants killed two AKP officials in Van and Diyarbakır provinces early Oct. Ten civilians wounded in attack near police station in Istanbul’s Yenibosna district 6 Oct; ten soldiers and five civilians killed in PKK suicide bomb attack targeting military checkpoint in Şemdinli district, Hakkari province 9 Oct. Co-mayors of Diyarbakır province Gültan Kışanak and Fırat Anlı arrested 30 Oct. Ankara’s Euphrates Shield operation in N Syria continued, with Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army fighters capturing symbolically important town Dabiq and Soran 16 Oct (see Syria). Speaking to press same day, FM Çavuşoğlu said operation would continue to push toward el-Bab. Turkish media 19 Oct reported military had struck YPG/PYD targets in N Syrian Mare in attempt to prevent Kurdish PYD/YPG advances into el-Bab; military announced 160-200 PYD/YPG militants killed in offensive, Kurdish sources cited much smaller numbers. Explosion in Beşyüzevler district of Gaziantep in country’s west during raid of suspected IS cell house killed three police officers 16 Oct. PM Yıldırım 18 Oct stated that Turkish fighter jets and some 3,000 Turkey-trained Sunni rebels participated in Mosul offensive in Iraq (see Iraq). Govt continued crackdown against alleged members of state-christened FETÖ/PDY, extended state of emergency for another three-month period. Debate over ushering in presidential system reignited 12 Oct when PM Yıldırım announced that ruling AKP would submit its own constitutional draft for a presidential system to parliament. Opposition CHP and HDP parties heavily criticised proposal, while MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli said his party could support putting matter to referendum if govt’s proposal is in line with MHP sensitivities. Editor-in-chief and four other journalists of daily opposition newspaper Cumhuriyet taken into custody 31 Oct.

Turkish military offensive into Syria together with Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel fighters continued, targeting Islamic State (IS); Turkish officials 5 Sept declared border with Syria cleared of IS militants, with control now held by Turkish forces and local rebel factions. U.S. Special Forces in Syria joined Turkish troops and FSA along border 15 Sept; President Erdoğan same day said Turkey-backed rebels might push further south within Syria to create “safe zone”. Erdoğan 20 Sept said he supported plans to push IS out of Raqqa stronghold, but Turkey would not act unilaterally; also stated President Assad could not be part of transitional period in Syria. On 22 Sept two rockets reportedly fired from IS-held territory in Syria hit the border town of Kilis 22 Sept, injuring eight. Domestic investigations into IS-linked individuals continued, including four people arrested 16 Sept after intelligence revealed IS plan to target UK and German embassies. Intense clashes between state security forces and PKK militants continued, resulting in death of 66 state security force members, at least 41 PKK/PKK affiliated militants, and at least eight civilians 1-30 Sept. Ankara’s anti-PKK rhetoric continued to harden; following 14 Sept attack killing ten members of security forces in Ağrı’s Doğubeyazıt district, new Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu vowed Ankara would be “relentless” in fight against PKK and other terrorist organisations. Mehmet Öcalan, brother of imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan, visited him 11 Sept, reported he was in good health and that he called for end to Kurdish conflict. Interior ministry 11 Sept appointed trustees to replace mayors in 28 municipalities, 24 allegedly linked to PKK and run by Democratic Union Party (DBP), sister party of pro-Kurdish HDP. HDP representatives met with Iraqi Kurdistan region President Barzani 21 Sept asking him to relaunch peace process in Turkey. Crackdown against individuals thought to be linked to Gülen network (state-christened FETÖ/PDY) continued, including an additional 543 judges, 820 military personnel and 28,163 teachers dismissed early Sept; more than 100,000 public officials now reportedly dismissed/suspended since failed coup attempt. Justice minister announced 28 Sept that around 32,000 have been arrested since coup attempt. Govt purges extended to govt critics, individuals allegedly linked to PKK and leftists; 11,000 teachers in east and SE suspended over suspected links to PKK.

Month saw major terrorist attack in SE, assumed to be work of Islamic State (IS), and launch of major cross-border ground offensive against IS positions in N Syria. Bomb attack on Kurdish wedding in Gaziantep province in SE 20 Aug killed 56, mostly children, and injured more than 90; came as govt continued domestic crackdown on IS-linked individuals, with scores detained during month suspected of preparing attacks, recruiting for IS. Turkish policy on Syria continued to shift: President Erdoğan 9 Aug met with Russian President Putin for first time since Turkey’s downing of Russian jet in Nov 2015, reportedly discussed coordinating on Syria. Military 24 Aug began air and ground offensive “Euphrates Shield” on IS positions near Jarablus in N Syria, with Turkey-backed Syrian rebels taking control of town same day. Amid concern over recent U.S.-backed Syrian Kurdish YPG gains in N Syria, Turkish shelling also targeted some YPG positions (see Syria). PM Binali Yıldırım 20 Aug stated that President Bashar al-Assad could remain in power for transitional period. Iraq’s Kurdish Regional Govt President Barzani visited Ankara on 23 Aug for high-level talks. U.S. VP Joe Biden visited Ankara 24 Aug, expressed support for Turkish operations targeting IS in Jarablus. Ankara continued to press U.S. on extradition of Fethullah Gülen. PKK further escalated fight against Turkish security forces with intensification of IED attacks in Aug, two-fold increase in deaths of security forces compared to July. Violence continued to be concentrated in rural areas, mostly targeting police and military posts. 64 state security force members, at least 51 PKK/PKK-affiliated militants, and eighteen civilians killed during month; attacks included vehicle-borne IED targeting police station in SE Elazığ province 18 Aug, killing three police and injuring over 200 including at least 60 civilians. Another vehicle-borne IED attack on police checkpoint in Şırnak’s Cizre district 26 Aug killed eleven police, wounded 78. Senior PKK figure 8 Aug warned group will “spread its war to the cities”. Ankara continued to restructure state institutions and remove individuals thought to be linked to Gülen network (state-christened FETÖ/PDY) it blames for July failed coup; some 80,000 public officials reported to have been suspended since coup attempt. Govt 31 July closed all military academies, land, air and ground commands that were subordinated to defence minister.

Attempt by segment of Turkish army to topple elected govt and President Erdoğan 15 July saw hundreds killed and injured and prompted thousands of detentions including military and public officials the state claims were connected with state-christened Fethullahist Terrorist Organisation/Parallel State Structure (FETÖ/PDY), allegedly led by U.S.-based cleric Fethullah Gülen, which govt blamed for coup. Coup attempt failed in face of resistance from police, part of army and citizens responding to call from Erdoğan and mosques to take to streets. At least 240 people reported killed during clashes between police and army and attacks on civilians, over 1,500 injured. Turkish military 16-28 July discharged 117 generals, 32 admirals, 1,505 officers. Govt also dismissed some 60,000 public officials including in interior, foreign, education ministries. 2,745 judges and prosecutors suspended, 88 journalists detained, some 100 media outlets shut down on allegations of being connected to so-called FETÖ/PDY. Erdoğan 30 July announced 10,137 arrested, 18,699 detained in wake of coup attempt. Scale of backlash prompted concern in the West over Turkey’s commitment to rule of law, human rights and fundamental freedoms. Concern also abounds over divisions within security bureaucracy and capacity to address security challenges including operations against Kurdish PKK insurgency in SE and fight against Islamic State (IS). All four political parties in parliament condemned coup attempt. Parliament 21 July approved three-month state of emergency; deputy PM same day announced Turkey will temporarily suspend implementation of obligations pertaining to European Convention on Human Rights. Amnesty International 24 July published report alleging detained coup plotters being subjected to ill-treatment and torture; govt dismissed allegations. Coup attempt also ignited public debate on reinstalling capital punishment; Erdoğan 19 July said he would back a bill passed by parliament, EU warned such move would rule out EU accession. Clashes between state security forces and PKK continued, killing 42 security force members, 33 PKK militants, eight civilians in July. Govt 16 July imposed security lockdown at Incirlik Air Base following reports that some tanker aircraft deployed in coup attempt took off from base; operations resumed 17 July. Erdoğan 2 July announced govt would start working on granting citizenship to Syrian refugees in Turkey, prompting backlash from public and opposition.

Suicide bomb and gun attack at Istanbul airport 28 June saw 44 people killed and some 240 injured; authorities believe the three attackers, one Russian (North Caucasus), one Kyrgyz and one Uzbek, were Islamic State (IS) militants. Violence continued in SE provinces with fighting increasingly moving from urban to rural areas; some 36 security forces, thirteen civilians and 33 PKK militants killed in clashes throughout month. Attacks include suicide car bomber 7 June targeting police vehicle in Vezneciler in central Istanbul, six police officers and six civilians killed, PKK offshoot Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK) 12 June claimed responsibility. PM Binali Yıldırım 21 June declared end to military operations in urban areas in SE, said govt would begin reconstruction campaign for damaged districts; operations in rural areas continuing at high rate. Constitutional court 3 June rejected violation appeals by pro-Kurdish Democratic People’s Party (HDP) and some opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) members over 20 May constitutional amendment stripping 152 MPs of their immunities from prosecution; President Erdoğan 7 June signed bill lifting MPs immunity, allowing for prosecution of 799 cases. Authorities 21 June arrested one human rights activist and two journalists on charges of “terror propaganda” amid intensified crackdown against opposition and pro-Kurdish journalists and activists. Clampdown against IS networks continued: Niğde Criminal Court 16 June gave three IS militants aggravated life sentences for March 2014 Ulukışla attack in Niğde province, first known IS attack on Turkish soil. Media 16 June reported govt will install new air defence system at Elbeyli border crossing, Kilis province, to prevent IS rocket attacks at CrisisWatch N°155 International Crisis Group, 1 July 2016 Page 19 border, in continuing efforts to seal off 70km border with Syria. Turkey and EU 2 June began technical talks on overcoming last obstacles to visa liberalisation for Turkish citizens; PM Yıldırım 14 June said amendments on anti-terrorism law –one of five outstanding criteria for visa-liberalisation deal – were out of question, citing terrorist threat. European Commission next day published second progress report on implementation of EU-Turkey deal emphasising five criteria still need to be fulfilled in order for visa liberalisation to take place. Erdoğan and Russian President Putin spoke for first time 29 June since Nov 2015 downing of Russian warplane by Turkish fighter jet.

Month saw increased political polarisation as well as intensified violence and civilian casualties in SE, and rise in attacks attributed to Islamic State (IS). PM Davutoğlu resigned 5 May amid heightened tensions with President Erdoğan and following ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) 29 April decision to remove PM’s authority to appoint provincial party officials. AKP leadership 19 May announced Binali Yıldırım, minister of transport, maritime and communication and close ally of president, new PM. Parliament 20 May approved bill stripping immunity from 148 MPs currently facing criminal investigation, including 53 members of pro-Kurdish HDP (and party co-chairs). Violence intensified in SE with 27 civilians killed during month, up from previous months, also some 70 security forces and 53 PKK-linked militants. PKK continued high profile attacks and reportedly used more advanced weapons systems. Attacks include bomb-laden truck 12 May detonating in Diyarbakır’s Dürümlü, three PKK militants and thirteen civilians reportedly killed. Turkish military continued air operations against PKK targets in SE Turkey and N Iraq. Clampdown against IS networks continued following 1 May IS-linked bomb attack on police station in Gaziantep that killed three officers and injured 22. IS-attributed strikes from Syria increased including 2 May strike in Kilis; security forces responded with cross-border strikes on IS positions throughout month. European Commission 4 May recommended lifting of travel visas for Turkish biometric passport holders inside Schengen zone, following Turkey’s fulfilment of all but five of 72 criteria laid out in visa liberalisation roadmap as part of March migrant deal. European Parliament (EP) President Martin Schulz 11 May said EP would not take up commission’s proposal until remaining five criteria are fulfilled including amendments to anti-terror law, which Turkish govt officials reject citing country’s heightened terror threats.

Violence continued in south-east provinces with 50 members of security forces, at least 80 verifiable PKK/PKK-linked militants and some 23 civilians killed in April. Turkish media 4 April reported senior PKK figure Duran Kalkan elected leader of People’s Revolutionary Movement (HBDH), PKK-led umbrella organisation established 12 March comprising nine illegal leftist and pro-Kurdish extremist groups; security officials warned organisation will engage in acts of terror, including targeting foreign nationals. President Erdoğan 4 April said PKK has no option other than laying down arms or surrendering to security forces, dismissed any prospects for negotiation; 5 April vowed to strip PKK supporters of their citizenship. Suicide bomb attack 27 April hit western province of Bursa, thirteen injured; PKK offshoot Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK) 1 May claimed responsibility, security officials 28 April detained fifteen suspects. Clampdown against Islamic State (IS) and Jabhat al-Nusra networks intensified: authorities 1 April detained fifteen suspects in İzmir province; long-sought IS-linked suspect Hüseyin Tunç detained 6 April on charges of involvement in 10 Oct Ankara bombings; security forces 14 April detained eleven suspected al-Nusra militants after operations in Adana province. IS-attributed strikes from Syria intensified hitting Kilis province eleven times in April, thirteen reported killed and 59 injured. Defence Minister İsmet Yılmaz 13 April reported 146 IS targets shelled by Turkish artillery, 362 IS militants killed in Turkish military operations in retaliation to rockets landing in Kilis. Erdoğan 7 April warned EU that Ankara would not implement March migrant deal if Brussels failed to fulfil its side of bargain, including visa-free travel to Europe for Turkish citizens by summer and rejuvenated EU accession process.

Car bomb 13 March in Ankara killed 36, two attackers also killed; Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK) – ultra-radical Kurdish nationalist offshoot of Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) – claimed responsibility for attack, said it was act of revenge for ongoing security operations against PKK in southeastern urban centres. Ankara 14 March conducted heavy airstrikes on PKK camps in northern Iraq, as military operations continued in SE Şırnak, Diyarbakır, Mardin and Hakkâri provinces, with 52 Turkish security forces, at least 40 civilians and at least 25 PKK militants killed 1-29 March; seven police killed in explosion in Diyarbakır 31 March. Justice Ministry 4 March submitted request that parliament lift immunities of pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) co-chairs and three other MPs, following visit of condolence by one HDP MP to family of TAK suicide bomber allegedly responsible for 17 Feb Ankara attack; request likely to stoke further tension in ongoing row between ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and HDP. President Erdoğan 14 March vowed to expand definition of terror to apply to lawmakers, journalists and activists as space for open debate continued to narrow. Istanbul court 16 March arrested three Turkish academics and deported UK academic on charges of terrorist propaganda, following their public declaration entitled “We won’t be part of this crime” during 10 March gathering. Islamic State (IS)-linked suicide bomber 17 March attack on Istanbul’s Istiklal Street killed three Israeli and one Iranian national and injured 39. IS 8 and 12 March launched strikes from across Syrian border, two killed including one toddler in border province Kilis. EU and Turkey 18 March reached landmark agreement on Syrian refugees, part of deal that includes visa liberalisation and acceleration of accession negotiations for Turkey. EU agreed to grant additional €3bn to Turkey for refugee-related costs until end of 2018.