CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Africa

Chad

Improved Chad-Sudan relations maintained over month. Group of 189 rebels signed ceasefire agreement with govt 9 Aug, returned to Chad from Sudan; main rebel group coalition Union des forces de la résistance (UFR) reported those returning included injured or handicapped rebels. President Déby 11 Aug criticised French military presence in Chad, requested financial compensation. National Assembly 18 Aug abolished repressive law on press, introduced new laws; media groups claim still too repressive. Main opposition coalition 27 Aug threatened to boycott 2011 elections, accusing govt of failing to implement 13 Aug accord laying down conditions for conduct of poll.

Africa

Chad

Chad-Sudan relations strengthened over month: Khartoum 18 July expelled Chadian rebel leaders Erdimi (RFC), Nouri (UFDD) and Tollimi (UFR), while N’djamena defied ICC arrest warrant for Sudanese President Bashir, hosting him 22-23 July at regional summit despite ICC and EU calls for his arrest. Govt 1 July accepted international experts’ participation in inquiry into Feb 2008 disappearance of opposition leader Mahmat Saleh. Govt same day adopted law increasing parliament seats from 155 to 186 to even regional imbalances, as suggested by electoral commission (CENI). Opposition 8 July questioned accuracy of seat allocation, CENI’s impartiality. President Déby 6 July dismissed governor of eastern Ouaddai province where insecurity has soared in recent months. MINURCAT 15 July completed first withdrawal phase, pulled out 1,400 troops.

Africa

Chad

8 rebel groups 5 June formed new coalition, MONASAP. Tunisian national Youssef Mahmoud appointed new MINURCAT chief 10 June. France 11 June confirmed €1.2mn support for 2011 polls. Voter registration closed 25 June; electoral commission said 80% of expected voters registered, oppositions claimed fraud and low mobilisation. British aid worker abducted in Abeche 6 June, freed 16 June. President Déby 22 June reiterated opposition to possible partition of Sudan.

Africa

Chad

UNSC 25 May extended MINURCAT mandate, but announced complete withdrawal by 31 Dec; UNSG Ban 6 May had recommended 1 year extension; President Déby had requested departure before 2011 polls. Rebel leader Mahmat Nouri 20 May defected from UFR, created new rebel coalition ANCD with UFDD, CDR, MDRI, FSR; Nouri argued armed struggle still necessary as credible elections unlikely. Darfur rebel leader Khalil Ibrahim (JEM) 19 May denied entry to Chad; authorities cited improved ties with Khartoum; incident triggered impromptu 300-400 people demonstration of solidarity with Ibrahim in N’djamena (see Sudan). Voter registration began 5 May as decreed by Déby 4 May; very low turnout attributed to lack of information; 4m voters expected.

Africa

Chad

Govt-rebel negotiations encountered difficulties: govt 2 Apr met UFR rebels via Sudanese intermediaries; President Déby 8 Apr called UFR “mercenaries paid by Sudan”; UFR urged govt to show true commitment to dialogue. Govt 25 Apr launched attack against PFNR rebels near Chad-Sudan border; govt reported 100 rebels, 9 soldiers killed. Border reopened 13 Apr for first time in 7 years; part of 2010 agreement to improve relations. Opposition party CPDC 6 Apr denounced anomalies in voter lists for Nov 2010, Apr 2011 elections. New MINURCAT head Youssef Mahmoud assumed position 1 Apr; UN and Chad 23 Apr agreed on extension of MINURCAT mandate until Oct and reduction of troops to 1,900.

Africa

Chad

PM Youssouf Saleh Abbas resigned 5 March; reasons unclear but followed embezzlement allegations and growing divergences with President Déby. Déby immediately appointed former defence minister Emmanuel Nadingar (ruling party MPS) PM; Nadingar formed new govt 9 March, retaining several ministers. Move thought designed to strengthen Déby’s position ahead of late 2010 polls. Govt 1 March accepted 2-month extension of MINURCAT’s mandate, approved by UNSC 12 March. UN USG Youssef Mahmoud and govt 30 March held talks on pace of withdrawal, with parties agreeing to retain civilian component but disagreeing on number of staff to stay.

Africa

Chad

President Déby 7 Feb travelled to Khartoum for 2 days of talks with Sudanese President Bashir. Presidents 8 Feb announced end of hostilities and pledged to work together to resolve insecurity; Déby called on Chadian rebels in Darfur to lay down arms and guaranteed safe return to Chad. In wake of deal, Chad’s UN ambassador Allam-mi reiterated govt’s desire for UN Chad-CAR peacekeeping mission MINURCAT to leave when mandate lapses in March, stressing govt’s capacity to secure east given “changed context”. UNSC 17 Feb agreed to send peacekeeping USG Alain le Roy to Chad to discuss renewal.

Africa

Chad

Electoral commission 8 Jan announced legislative and local elections would be held 28 Nov and 12 Dec respectively, with 2-week voter registration starting 21 March and calling for donor support. Authorities 8 Jan claimed to have captured MPRD rebels leader and 20 fighters in south; group denied but leader Djbrine Dassert paraded before media 14 Jan. Govt 19 Jan announced it would not support renewal of MINURCAT mandate at 15 March expiry over incomplete deployment and alleged ineffectiveness; aid groups concerned over impact on security in east. Following Oct agreement to normalise relations, Chad and Sudan 15 Jan established timetable for joint border patrols to commence 15 Feb. But relations remain tense, with President Déby early month reiterating accusations against Sudan over incursions by Chadian rebels from Darfur.

Africa

Chad

Electoral Commission 4 Dec announced parliamentary elections to be held 2010 in accordance with agreed timetable, after govt/opposition dispute over biometric ID cards resolved with compromise decision to hold computerised census. Govt 14 Dec signed agreement with FDP rebel group operating in south; rumours group already closely linked to govt. Reports 10 Dec of leadership crisis within UFR rebel group, refuted by UFR which 13 Dec announced it had repelled attack by govt troops in southeast; govt acknowledged fighting, denied heavy losses. Chad-Sudan delegations met 25 Dec, reporting progress in talks on countering cross-border rebel attacks. Humanitarian organisations continued to scale back operations in east amid deteriorating security.

Africa

Chad

New détente with Sudan looked close to unravelling, with N’djamena mid month lashing out over Sudan’s failure to remove Chadian rebels from border, prompting angry retorts from Khartoum. Sudan early month launched air strike against Chadian detachment that had earlier crossed border, killing 1 Chadian soldier. Govt 21 Nov announced creation of national elections office, a request of opposition groups included in 2007 peace accord. Former president Weddeye, following return from exile 16 Nov, stated intent to mediate between govt/rebels and relaunch peace talks. 5 NGOs and ICRC suspended operations in east early month over security risks. MINURCAT troops increased to 2,749, bringing force to 52% of full capacity.

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