CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Africa

Chad

Rebel alliance of up to 3,000 launched assault on capital N’Djamena 2-3 Feb in failed attempt to overthrow President Déby: hundreds killed, 20,000 fl to Cameroon. Rebels withdrew from capital 4 Feb, moved east – described as “tactical”; refused ceasefire without Déby’s resignation. He accused Khartoum of supporting rebels; they accused France of backing government. JEM and other Darfur groups supporting Déby. UNSC presidential statement 4 Feb urged international support for government. State of emergency declared 14 Feb amid reports of soldiers looting in capital. EU Council of Ministers 18 Feb called for release of 3 opposition leaders arrested in government crackdown, former president Lol Choua reported freed 28 Feb; under French pressure government agreed 27 Feb to international probe into violence, 2 politicians still missing. 3 major newspapers stopped publication to protest heavy media controls. EU peacekeeping force (EUFOR) deployment suspended 1 Feb, resumed 12 Feb; rebels denounced French- dominated force as partisan. EUFOR force commander Jean- Philippe Ganascia said 19 Feb force operational mid-March. Gunmen blocked UNHCR staff from relocating Darfuri refugees to camps 15 Feb – reasons unclear.

Africa

Chad

Situation escalated ahead of early Feb deployment of EU (EUFOR) peacekeepers. 300 rebel vehicles advanced towards N’Djamena end month under apparent unified command after earlier taking control of central town Oum Hadjer. National army (ANT) troops approached rebel column as CrisisWatch went to press. EU military staff agreed to deploy Irish-led force 11 Jan after France, Belgium, Poland supplied additional equipment. Concern about how 2 UN missions will work together: MINURCAT – mandated to train police, reinforce judicial infrastructure, deploy inside camps for Darfur refugees and eastern sites for displaced Chadians, offer police escorts for aid agencies; EUFOR – authorised to use military force and prevent incursions into area. EU Commissioner Louis Michel stated 21 Jan “EU will not refuse to be a mediator if it is asked to do so”. Chadian air force bombed rebel positions close to West Darfur capital El Geneina 6 Jan. N’Djamena stated intention 8 Jan to carry out further bombings against Chadian rebels in Sudan. Rebel group Alliance for National Resistance claimed shot down army helicopter gunship which attacked positions in east near village of Beda.

Africa

Chad

Fighting worsened in east between Khartoum-backed Chadian rebels and Chadian military (ANT). Rebels cited failure of government to begin discussions stipulated in 27 October peace agreement. President Deby sacked Minister of Defence (ex-rebel FUC leader) Mahamat Nur. EU/UN peacekeeping force for eastern Chad behind schedule; French domination risks becoming problem with other EU member states; rebels argue Paris’s support for Deby threatens neutrality of force. UN aid worker killed in south, 6 December.

Africa

Chad

Heavy fighting erupted in east between military and 2 rebel groups, UFDD (Union des forces pour la démocratie et le développement) and RFC (Rassemblement des forces pour le changement), end November, as rebels abandoned 25 October peace agreement. Both sides claimed to have inflicted heavy casualties. Chad intelligence chief accused Sudan of arming UFDD rebels 27 November. Largely French EU protection force due to start deployment mid-December; UFDD declared 30 November “state of war” against French or any deployed foreign troops. Anti-French demonstrations held N’Djamena 14 November in protest of Arche de Zoe child “kidnapping” incident; thousands dispersed with tear gas.

Africa

Chad

Mixed fortunes in month with simultaneous peace agreement and escalation of violence. Four rebel groups - Movement for Resistance and Change, National Accord of Chad and 2 factions of Front for United Forces for Development and Democracy - signed agreement with government 26 October, including immediate ceasefire, amnesty and release of all prisoners. Earlier in month: state of emergency called in eastern and northern regions after ethnic clashes; another rebel group, United Front for Democratic Change, fought government soldiers along Sudan border despite earlier peace deal.

Africa

Chad

UN Security Council endorsed significant new UN/EU mission for Chad and CAR 25 September. “Multi-dimensional presence” to consist of 300 UN police (MINURCAT), primarily to train Chadian gendarmes, and EU force of up to 4,000 for protection. EU Council approved force 13 September: troops to be predominantly French – concerns raised over reluctance of other countries to contribute. Deployment not expected before November. UNSG Ban Ki-moon met President Déby 8 September to discuss mission plans and seek direct support from N’Djamena for October Darfur peace talks in Libya. Preparatory meetings in N’Djamena to coordinate Darfur rebel positions postponed. Heavy rains in east caused damage in camps. Talks between Déby and armed opposition remained stalled.

Africa

Chad

Revised plan for UN presence in eastern Chad and north eastern CAR presented 10 August; UNSC 27 August stated readiness to authorise. EU military force to provide “wide area security” and protect civilians at risk, but not to be involved in border area. UN to provide some 300 civilian police to train Chadian police and gendarmes. EU-UN information-gathering mission in Chad, CAR end August. EU decision expected 17 September Council meeting. Government, opposition coalition signed agreement calling for electoral reforms and postponing parliamentary polls to December 2009. Talks with armed opposition still suspended. Renewed clashes between Tama and Zaghawa in east 22 August: 12 reportedly killed.

Africa

Chad

EU member states agreed 23 July to start planning for possible 3,000-strong peacekeeping mission as part of broader UN mission. UN peacekeeping chief Jean-Marie Guéhenno said UN would train and support Chadian police while EU would protect civilians, humanitarian workers and UN mission. EU mission will not be deployed without UN Security Council resolution and clear exit strategy. French FM Kouchner said interim EU mission would eventually hand over to UN peacekeeping force. Talks between government and 4 Chadian rebel factions in Tripoli, and between government and Chadian non-armed political opposition in N’Djamena, both stalled.

Africa

Chad

French FM Bernard Kouchner 11 June urged President Deby to allow international peacekeeping troops and UN police along border with Sudan to secure region. Deby remained noncommittal, repeatedly stating he wants police and gendarmes, not soldiers. Meeting of foreign ministers in Paris 25 June reiterated call for force in Chad. Kouchner announced French air support to humanitarian organisations supplying refugee camps in east, with airlift of aid supplies starting 17 June. Libya organised Tripoli negotiations between Khartoum- backed Chadian rebel leaders and N’Djamena 23 June. Rebels continued to demand inclusive political dialogue, non- starter for Deby.

Africa

Chad

President Idriss Deby and Sudan’s President Omar al- Bashir signed reconciliation agreement at 3 May summit hosted by Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah. Agreement to stabilise Darfur and neighbouring region in Chad sees formation of joint border force, deployment of observers and cooperation with AU and UN. Observers doubt sincerity as each side continues to support proxy militias to destabilise the other, though N’djamena asked Darfur rebels to leave capital. Chad reiterated refusal of foreign peacekeeping force on eastern border because it fears neighbours may see foreign troops as threat. Government lifted state of emergency 25 May despite continuing violence in east.

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