Govt continued policies to neutralise opposition movement, with 2 May release of Aram Bareghamyan, Armenian National Congress (HAK) member imprisoned following March 2008 unrest; following 26 May approval by parliament of general amnesty, 2 more prominent opposition members freed from jail. HAK announced it remains committed to holding snap presidential and parliamentary elections, but will consider negotiations with govt. Justice Minister 20 May ruled out early elections.

Thousands of opposition supporters attended rally in Yerevan 8 Apr, fourth such protest this year. Addressing rally, Armenian National Congress (HAK) leader Levon Ter-Petrossian gave President Sargsyan further ultimatum with 28 Apr deadline to release “political prisoners”, conduct probe into March 2008 post-election violence, and give opposition movement access to Liberty Square, or HAK will move from “dialogue” to more active protest. Authorities 26 Apr gave permission for further opposition rally; several thousand joined opposition demonstration in Liberty Square 28 Apr. Special Investigative Service 22 Apr said it would conduct “thorough review” of its investigation into 2008 post-election violence, following 20 Apr call by Sargsyan. Parliament speaker and others 29 Apr made request to Sargsyan to consider release of prominent opposition figure Sasun Mikaelian. U.S. Ambassador 15 Apr said U.S. would not renew Millennium Challenge funding when it ends in Sept. Parliament 12 Apr ratified defence agreement signed with Russia Aug 2010.

President Sargysan facing increased opposition political mobilization in form of street protests organized by former President Levon Ter-Petrossian, campaigning for immediate presidential, parliamentary elections. Over 10,000 people rallied in Yerevan 1, 17 March. Recent demonstrations largest since 2008, despite ban on anti-govt protests. Ter-Petrossian’s HAK party issued series of demands to govt including release of all political prisoners, ceasing of prosecution of opposition activists for alleged political purposes, and firing of PM and ministers accountable for weak economy. Ahead of protests authorities summoned several opposition activists to police stations, blocked public transport to Yerevan, released 2 Ter-Petrossian loyalists from jail 17 March. Next rally scheduled 8 April.

Constitutional Court 15 Feb ratified agreement signed Aug 2010 with Russia extending Russian military base in Armenia to 2044. Leading opposition newspaper Haykakan Zhamanak found guilty of libel for Oct report alleging 3 businessmen engaged in criminal activity in Russia; editor denounced verdict as politically motivated. Over 10,000 opposition supporters participated in anti-govt rally in Yerevan 18 Feb.

President Sarkisian 13 Jan signed controversial amendments to Law on International Agreements, adopted by parliament 17 Dec, allowing Armenian state institutions to establish “legal relations” and sign agreements with unrecognised entities. Deputy FM Shavarsh Kocharian said document will facilitate international recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh, making it an “international entity” with which Armenia signs “inter-entity” agreements. Parliament’s budgetary affairs committee 13 Jan reported national debt tripled from under 15% of GDP in 2008 to 40% at $3.4bn.

National Security Council (NSC) 11 Dec approved 2011-2015 military modernisation program including acquisition of long-range, precision-guided weapons and development of domestic defence industry. NSC head said program will neutralize all possible threats to national security; also recalled Aug Armenian-Russian agreement to set up joint military ventures. U.S. diplomatic cables released by Wikileaks revealed U.S. claims Armenia transferred weapons to Iran in 2003.

President Sarkisian boycotted 19-20 Nov NATO summit in Lisbon over anticipated adoption of declaration stressing NATO’s commitment to territorial integrity and sovereignty of countries in South Caucasus; stated Nagorno-Karabakh peace process led by OSCE Minsk group also based on principles of right to self-determination and non-use of force. Growing concern over abuse in army after 2 cases of non-combat shootings mid month left 5 soldiers dead, 4 injured. Followed July shooting spree in another army detachment killing 6.

Opposition Heritage party 5 and 29 Oct postponed vote on its draft law calling for formal recognition of “Nagorno- Karabakh Republic” after govt said passing bill now was “inexpedient”. Opposition Armenian Congress 19 Oct staged protest demanding release of members still jailed for role in March 2008 post-election violence.

Defence Minister Ohanian 10 Aug announced Armenia to acquire long-range precision weapons due to risk of war with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenian and Russian presidents 20 Aug signed military agreement extending Russian military presence in country in return for security guarantees; drew criticism from Armenian opposition. Ohanian downplayed implications of reported Russian plans to sell air defence missiles to Azerbaijan (see Azerbaijan).

Opposition leaders, including ex-President Ter-Petrossian, stated govt acceptance of Madrid principles for Nagorno-Karabakh settlement likely to result in domestic backlash, including possible regime change. 2 opposition youth activists went on trial 14 July on charges of hooliganism and resistance to police during 31 May demonstration; opposition Armenian National Congress said charges politically motivated. EU High Rep Ashton in Yerevan 19 July announced start of talks on association agreement to lead potentially to visa-free travel and free-trade regime.