Amid worsening political crisis, standoff emerged between PM Pashinyan and military as pressure mounted on PM to resign. Pashinyan 10 Feb told parliament that govt would continue to work in line with roadmap presented in Nov 2020 as opposition rejected his offer to hold snap parliamentary elections in 2021. Opposition insists PM must first resign. Several thousand 22 Feb marched in capital Yerevan, demanding Pashinyan’s resignation over handling of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in Sept-Nov 2020; protests continued until end of month. In sign of worsening political crisis, Pashinyan 25 Feb dismissed top military leadership, accusing it of attempted coup after top brass called for his resignation; dismissal prompted thousands same day to protest in Yerevan in support of either army or Pashinyan; President Sarkissian 27 Feb refused to dismiss head of armed forces. Meanwhile, govt and Azerbaijan continued dialogue and cooperation. Notably, authorities 9 Feb swapped prisoners of war and post-ceasefire detainees with mediation of Russian peacekeepers (see Nagorno-Karabakh). Russian President Putin 17 Feb held phone conversation with Pashinyan, reportedly to discuss practical aspects of implementation of Nov ceasefire agreement, as well as Moscow agreements signed in Jan.

Authorities attended Russian-sponsored talks with Azerbaijan on steps to further implement Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire. PM Pashinyan 11 Jan met Russian President Putin and Azerbaijani President Aliyev in Russia’s capital Moscow for Russian-initiated trilateral talks following deadly Autumn 2020 escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) conflict zone; talks – which build on ninth point of Nov ceasefire relating to opening of all regional economic and transport links between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic through Armenia – concluded with signing of joint statement on steps to develop economic ties and infrastructure projects (see Nagorno-Karabakh). Meanwhile, after Pashinyan late-Dec invited all political forces for consultations on early parliamentary elections in 2021, ruling My Step party initiated internal consultations to plan snap elections. Former President Robert Kocharyan 27 Jan stated his interest to run in elections to take prime ministerial seat. French President Emmanuel Macron 7 Jan held call with Pashinyan to present France’s plans to assist country with humanitarian aid and reiterated commitment to find political solution for region. Turkish FM Çavuşoğlu 7 Jan said Turkey may be open to normalise relations with Armenia. Azerbaijan 15 Jan filed case against Armenia with European Court of Human Rights for human rights violations during recent conflict and in past 30 years; Armenia 16 Jan announced intention to file similar complaint against Azerbaijan with European Court of Human Rights.

Govt completed first prisoner swaps with Azerbaijan as part of Russia-brokered ceasefire, while opposition protests calling for PM Pashinyan’s resignation continued. Baku and Yerevan 14 Dec exchanged first group of prisoners of war and civilians that included over 44 Armenian and 14 Azerbaijani detainees, with active participation of Russian peacekeeping forces deployed to Nagorno-Karabakh under Nov ceasefire deal; second group of four Armenian and two Azerbaijan detainees released on 28 Dec. Clashes 11-12 Dec took place between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces near villages under Armenian control in first violation of ceasefire agreement (see Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict). Govt announced that it had lifted some martial law restrictions imposed in Sept, including restrictions on holding protests and strikes. Hundreds of opposition demonstrators 8 Dec gathered in capital Yerevan after PM Nikol Pashinyan ignored calls to step down over Nov ceasefire with Azerbaijan. Thousands of Armenians 19 Dec began three days of mourning for victims of hostilities with Azerbaijan, marching through Yerevan. Hundreds of opposition supporters 22 Dec set up protest camp outside govt buildings in Yerevan in response to calls from opposition for national strike. Pashinyan 29 Dec started official discussions about snap parliamentary elections with three main political parties present at National Assembly; no date for possible vote announced yet. Meanwhile, French and American co-chairs of Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe Minsk Group 14 Dec visited Yerevan for first time since Oct 2019: PM Pashinyan raised with co-chairs need to restore negotiations in format of Minsk Group co-chairmanship with aim of comprehensive settlement, and co-chairs stressed that they remained “committed to providing concrete proposals on issues raised during the meetings for future discussions between the sides.” Lack of clarity on new Armenia-Azerbaijan border 16-17 Dec sparked local protests involving hundreds of residents in southern Syunik region with some briefly blocking roads; defence ministry 17 Dec confirmed that Russian border troops would be stationed along state border in Syunik to ease tensions.

Violent protests erupted after PM Pashinyan signed Russian-brokered ceasefire agreement to end deadly fighting with Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) conflict zone. After Azerbaijani govt 8 Nov announced capture of Shusha, strategically significant city in NK, PM Pashinyan 10 Nov signed Russian-brokered ceasefire agreement with Russian President Putin and Azerbaijani President Aliyev; deal stipulates that Azerbaijan retain captured territories, including Shusha, while Armenia must hand over control of three adjacent areas – Agdam, Kelbajar and Lachin districts – with Russian peacekeepers being deployed to remaining Armenian-controlled parts of NK. PM Pashinyan 10 Nov publicly announced ceasefire, defending decision by saying army and de facto NK authorities had insisted on signing agreement. Announcement prompted national outcry as public had been largely unaware of dire realities of ongoing conflict: thousands 10-11 Nov gathered in Republican Square in capital Yerevan, with hundreds storming PM’s office, parliament and other buildings, and protesters brutally beating parliament speaker. Scuffles 11 Nov took place between police and protesters in Freedom Square; police arrested six people for alleged illegal organisation of mass protests and attempt to overthrow constitutional order. Representatives of 17 opposition parties called for Pashinyan to step down, accusing him of heavy concessions in ceasefire deal, and 12-18 Nov organised series of demonstrations in Yerevan and other cities; National Security Service (NSS) of Armenia 14 Nov arrested three opposition members, including leader of Homeland opposition party and former NSS director Artur Vanetsian, on grounds of alleged attempt to overthrow Pashinyan and violating martial law rules (in place since late-Sept); both were released from custody day after arrest. In response to protests. Senior govt and party officials resigned, including FM and deputy FM 10 Nov and PM’s special envoy 16 Nov, and five ruling party members left party or gave up parliamentary mandate in same week. President Armen Sarkissian 16 Nov called for Pashinyan to resign and snap elections; Pashinyan, however, 18 Nov refused to step down and responded with six-month action plan designed to ensure country’s stability; based on Pashinyan’s proposal, Sarkissian same day appointed Ara Ayvazyan as FM and 20 Nov Vagharshak Harutyunyan as new defence minister.

Deadly fighting with Azerbaijan worsened in Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) with attacks extending to Armenia’s border regions; deadly attacks could further intensify and spread in Nov. Largest-scale fighting since 1994 ceasefire continued following Azerbaijani military’s late Sept offensive on line of contact in NK conflict zone: fighting reportedly killed and wounded thousands of military personnel on both sides; civilian areas inside conflict zone suffered continued attacks, killing at least 39 civilians and injuring over 100 (see Nagorno-Karabakh). Missile and drone attacks late Sept-early Oct also spread to Armenia’s regions near NK area, with at least three civilians reported killed and tens injured. After attacks at border regions, PM Pashinyan 31 Oct sent official appeal to Russian President Vladimir Putin for military support in line with Russia-Armenia mutual assistance agreements from 1997 and 2006.  In interview with Russian state-owned news agency, Pashinyan 19 Oct confirmed readiness to cease fighting and start peace negotiations on condition that settlement be based on “compromise, not capitulation”. Armenia prosecutor’s office 31 Oct said two Syrian fighters detained in NK; in video testimony, one detainee said Turkish officials recruited and transported him to fight along with Azerbaijani troops.    

Authorities called on public to prepare for war after major deadly clashes with Azerbaijan along front line of Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) conflict zone, raising risk of escalation in Oct. Largest-scale fighting since 1994 ceasefire erupted 27 Sept as Azerbaijani army attacked Armenian troops located along key sections of 200km-long front line in NK conflict zone: fighting reportedly killed dozens and wounded hundreds of military personnel on both sides (see Nagorno-Karabakh). Azerbaijan 27 Sept reported taking control of several Armenian positions in southern part of NK conflict zone; de facto leader Arayik Harutyunyan next day said Armenian troops regained control of initially lost positions. Govt 27 Sept declared martial law and started to mobilise reserve troops.  Previously, deadly clashes 16-21 Sept broke out along state border between Armenia and Azerbaijan; Armenia 16 Sept reported one soldier killed and Azerbaijan 14-21 Sept reported one killed and two wounded; both countries called on public to prepare for imminent war or to be ready for adversary attack. Meanwhile, Russian protesters stuck in Armenia due to closure of state borders amid COVID-19 3 Sept gathered in front of govt buildings in Yerevan demanding resumption of air travel to Russia.

Govt decision to congratulate Belarusian President Lukashenko following his re-election in disputed vote sparked domestic opposition. PM Pashinyan 10 Aug congratulated Lukashenko on controversial re-election for sixth term in office; President Armen Sargsyan same day sent congratulatory telegram. Pashinyan’s words of congratulations prompted numerous activists to demand that he rescind statement, while politicians, civil society groups and activists gathered in small protests in capital Yerevan and published apology statements, condemning actions of Belarusian police forces and calling for support to opposition groups over following days. In response to criticism, Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan 16 Aug said govt had taken decision to congratulate Lukashenko after “comprehensive risk assessment”. Former leader Serzh Sargsyan 19 August spoke for first time in press conference about govt’s alleged mishandling of April 2016 escalation that resulted in loss of life and territory in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone, stating Azerbaijan launched unpredictable offensive and denying army’s corruption and poor performance. Govt 12 Aug extended some COVID-19 lockdown restrictions until 11 Sept with plans to resume school classes on 15 Sept.

Deadly violence erupted along north-eastern part of border with Azerbaijan, fuelling tensions between Armenians and Azerbaijanis living abroad. Following relative calm at frontline since Sept 2018 agreement that launched direct communication channel between Armenia and Azerbaijan, violence 12-16 July flared up at densely populated frontline between Movses in Armenia and Agdam in Azerbaijan during which both sides used heavy weaponry in severest escalation since April 2016; as of 21 July, Armenia reported four military casualties and one civilian wounded; cause of escalation remained unclear and both sides traded accusations of initiating first attack. After border escalation, tensions rose between Armenian and Azerbaijani migrants and members of diaspora living abroad: in Russia, home to one of largest Armenian and Azerbaijani diaspora populations, Moscow authorities 18 July arrested more than 25 individuals suspected of attacking several pedestrians and drivers; clashes 21 July also broke out between Armenians and Azerbaijanis in Los Angeles, U.S. (see Nagorno-Karabakh conflict).

Parliament pressed ahead with constitutional changes following cancelled referendum while political infighting centred on persistent COVID-19 outbreak. Following govt’s March decision to cancel referendum vote on constitutional changes due to COVID-19 outbreak, parliament 22 June approved constitutional amendments, which could lead to govt suspension of three out of nine Constitutional Court judges and election of new head of court; opposition criticised changes, calling them politically motivated. Country remained worst-affected by COVID-19 pandemic in South Caucasus, with PM Pashinyan 1 June reporting he had tested positive (and reporting his recovery 8 June). Pashinyan 8 June dismissed heads of army, police and national security service over alleged violations of COVID-19 restrictions; govt extended COVID-19 state of emergency until 13 July. Leader of largest opposition faction Prosperous Armenia party Gagik Tsarukyan 5 June called on govt to resign due to “ineffective efforts” against COVID-19 and country’s “failing economy”; Parliament 16 June voted to strip Tsarukyan of his parliamentary immunity, leading to his arrest on suspicion of vote buying, fraud and illegal land appropriation; Tsarukyan denied wrongdoing. Authorities 20 June released on bail former President Kocharyan who was arrested in June 2019 for ordering violent crackdown against opposition protesters after 2008 election.

With highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in South Caucasus, PM Pashinyan 26 May said country was facing second wave of infections, and warned that penalties, including fines, would be toughened for those not following safety rules.