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Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Europe & Central Asia

Armenia

New govt of PM Pashinyan, who continues to enjoy high popularity levels, arrested more former govt officials and their relatives, including launch of investigations into former President Sargsyan’s brother, nephew and niece, reportedly charged with conducting illegal business activities. Armenia’s second President Robert Kocharyan sentenced 27 July to two-month pre-trial detention in court investigation into his involvement in crackdown on protesters in March 2008 that left ten dead; former ruling Republican Party and Armenian Revolutionary Federation-Dashnaktsutyun party spoke about possible political motivation of investigation. Amid ongoing uncertainty over date for new parliamentary elections, speculation increased that they will be postponed until 2019, as parliamentarians continue to amend electoral code. Armenia took part in Russia-led military exercises “International Army Games” late July.

Europe & Central Asia

Armenia

New govt of PM Pashinyan completed appointments in key ministries and govt offices, also changing most regional governors and reshuffling army’s general staff. Former ruling Republican Party lost six MPs and its ability to block new laws in parliament, while new govt continued to pursue arrests and investigations of former govt allies, some still in power, and their businesses. Parliament 7 June approved Pashinyan’s program, which prioritises fight against corruption, reforms in education and economy, but no significant shifts in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict or foreign policy. In most high-profile case, MP Manvel Grigoryan, close ally of former President Sargsyan and popular Karabakh war veteran, was arrested 16 June on suspicion of illegal acquisition of weapons, which he denied; parliament 19 June voted to lift his immunity from prosecution; Grigoryan’s wife also detained and his son, former mayor of Etchmiadzin town, charged with embezzlement of state funds. Former president’s brother and chief bodyguard detained 24 June; brother released shortly after. Speaking after first EU-Armenia Partnership Council, EU foreign policy chief Mogherini 21 June announced “full support” for reforms by new govt and promised support to preparations and conduct of anticipated snap parliamentary elections. FM 22 June called for “greater engagement” with EU at tenth Eastern Partnership Informal Ministerial Dialogue.

Europe & Central Asia

Armenia

Parliament voted May 8 to appoint former protest leader Nikol Pashinyan as PM, after initially voting against him May 2; Pashinyan appointed new cabinet consisting largely of allies, including pro-Western ministers for foreign and defence portfolios and defence ministry’s chief of general staff; is also expected to replace regional govt heads. Challenges include former ruling Republican Party majority in parliament, potentially blocking moves to introduce promised anti-corruption and electoral reforms; continuing pressure from public calling for punishment of corrupt officials and economic reform, with small protests continuing across country; and uncertainty over anticipated snap elections. Protesters stormed Yerevan’s city hall May 16 demanding mayor’s resignation. Pashinyan met Russian President Putin 14 May in margins of the Eurasian Economic Union summit in Sochi. For his first official visit Pashinyan 30 May went to Georgia, aiming for closer economic and political cooperation.

Europe & Central Asia

Armenia

Political crisis as unprecedented anti-govt protest movement forced resignation 23 April of former President Sargsyan from PM position he took up days earlier. Govt 9 April announced it would nominate Sargsyan, who was president for ten years until early March 2018, to position of PM, which under new 2015 constitution takes on hitherto presidential powers. Announcement prompted hundreds to join protests organised by MP Nikol Pashinyan of opposition Yelk alliance and a number of opposition activists in Yerevan calling for Sargsyan to step down. Tensions aggravated by violent actions of police trying to disperse and arrest protesters 16 April. Lawmakers 17 April elected Sargsyan as PM, prompting thousands across country to join demonstrations – by 22 April numbering over 100,000 in Yerevan’s main square, largest protests in Armenia’s post-independence history. Sargsyan walked out of 22 April dialogue with Pashinyan, who was later detained by security forces, released next day. Sargsyan unexpectedly resigned 23 April, stating “Pashinyan was right. I got it wrong”. Planned talks between Pashinyan and acting PM Karapetyan 25 April to discuss transitional period, election of new PM and date for snap parliamentary elections were cancelled at last minute, prompting resumption of mass protests. Speaker of parliament 26 April announced parliament would elect new interim PM on 1 May. Yelk alliance 30 April officially nominated Pashinyan for PM position; meeting with parties in parliament same day, Pashinyan promised no rapid change in Armenian foreign policy, calling for cooperation with both Russia and the West; called for reform of electoral system prior to new parliamentary elections.

Europe & Central Asia

Armenia

In 19 March interview President Sargsyan, widely expected to be selected as new PM by National Assembly in April, said he could change his mind about previous decision to step down and might stay in power to mitigate threats to Armenia’s security and stability coming from Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and domestic turbulence caused by war veterans and political radicals. Under new constitution, all main presidential powers will shift to new prime minister position. National Assembly 2 March elected new President Armen Sarkissian, former scientist and UK ambassador with extensive business contacts in Russia, Central Asia and the West. Yerevan court 20 March sentenced opposition politician Zhirayr Sefilian to 10.5 years’ jail for planning mass disorder; Sefilian, who was arrested in June 2016 with six supporters who were also sentenced, said charges were politically motivated. Armenia 1 March formally nullified 2009 Zurich Protocols signed to normalise relations with Turkey, which were never ratified; no official reaction in Ankara.

Europe & Central Asia

Armenia

Ahead of its election of new PM 17 April, who under new constitution will effectively lead country, National Assembly 8 Feb passed in first hearing amendments to several laws, including: reviewed law on Security Council to guarantee PM’s exclusive responsibility for defence policy, and established new position of vice PM. Current President Sargsyan widely expected to be elected PM. Armen Sarkissian 16 Feb officially confirmed his candidacy for presidential elections in National Assembly 2 March; also widely expected to win. Speaking at Munich Security Conference 17 Feb Sargsyan confirmed his readiness to denounce 2009 Zurich Protocols by end of his current term early April; Protocols were signed by Armenia and Turkey as part of planned normalisation process supported by U.S. and Russia.

Europe & Central Asia

Armenia

Ruling party 19 Jan officially announced candidacy of Armen Sarkissian, a 64-year-old academic and former diplomat and businessman, for president, to be elected by electoral college consisting of national and municipal MPs (in line with 2015 constitutional amendments). Under new constitution, president to serve more symbolic role with PM effective ruler of country.

Europe & Central Asia

Armenia

Following late Nov signing of Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement with EU – first to be signed with a country that is also a member of the Eurasian Economic Union – President Sargsyan 14 Dec said Armenia would receive visa-free travel with EU in two-to-three years, although many observers expressed doubt over whether this will happen within this time period.

Europe & Central Asia

Armenia

Defence ministry in late October proposed tougher policy on military service, making it harder for young men to avoid compulsory two years’ military service. Amendments, which would provide legal amnesty to those who have avoided army by staying outside country, prompted criticism from opposition and provoked days of student protests including some hunger strikes. Parliament 15 Nov adopted some of amendments in second final reading, president 29 Nov signed it into law. President Sargsyan met with Russian President Putin in Moscow 15 Nov, hailed bilateral cooperation. Following EU Eastern Partnership summit in Brussels, EU and Armenia 24 Nov signed Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement.

Europe & Central Asia

Armenia

Govt 12 Oct approved draft agreement for $100mn Russian loan to purchase Russian military hardware, increasing 2018 defence budget by about 17% to $515mn. National Assembly 5 Oct ratified controversial defence accord with Russia to establish “united group of forces” committed to cooperation in case of foreign attack. Seven opposition MPs voted against accord, voicing concerns about increasing Russian military presence.

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