CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
President Saakashvili early-month announced 1 Oct paliamentary elections. Court 9 Aug jailed senior Georgian Dream (GD) official Melik Raisian for 6-years in absentia for fraud, 11 Aug fined GD parliamentary candidate Kakha Kaladze $10.3mn on suspicion of illegally funding opposition, 12 Aug fined GD leader Bidzina Ivanishvili $13mn on similar suspicion. Council of Europe late month expressed concern over GD claim govt froze party bank accounts. 3 security personnel, 11 suspected militants from Dagestan, Russia killed 29 Aug in successful operation to free 10 hostages near Lapankuri; President Saakashvili condemned kidnapping, blamed Russia. Abkhaz media 15 Aug reported 1 Georgian “saboteur” killed in Gali district, Abkhazia; Georgian sources reported 1 child kidnapped. South Ossetia (SO) President Tibilov mid-month reportedly announced plans to destroy abandoned Georgian villages in breakaway region; Georgian Deputy FM Kapanadze said plan “continuation of ethnic cleansing”. EU early month called Russian PM Medvedev’s 8 Aug visit to SO, “incompatible with the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity” of Georgia.
Police 11 July announced seizure of thousands of satellite dishes set to be distributed by opposition broadcaster Maestro TV as part of investigation into vote buying by opposition Georgian Dream coalition ahead of Oct parliamentary elections; scuffles occurred same day between Georgian Dream activists, ruling party supporters in Karaleti. Ruling United National Movement (UNM) called on opposition to sign joint pledge ensuring free and fair elections. FM Vashadze 16 July complained of “intensive militarisation” by Russia in breakaway regions of Abkhazia, S Ossetia. In Abkhazia, Gali Military Registration and Enlistment Officer Beslan Kirtadze killed 11 July by unknown gunmen. In S Ossetia, chief investigator with Prosecutor General’s Office, investigating 3 July attack on State Security employee, abducted 9 July in Tskhinvali, later found killed.
President Saakashvili 30 June named Interior Minister Vano Merabishvili new PM. Opposition denounced seizure of some 300,000 satellite dishes during late-month police raids as attack against freedom of speech; authorities said action part of investigation into vote-buying by opposition Georgian Dream coalition. Court 11 June fined Georgian Dream leader Bidzina Ivanishvi $90 million for violating electoral, political funding laws; fine later reduced to $45.4 million; Ivanishvi called decision absurd, refused to pay; court 29 June rejected appeal by Ivanishvi to restore Georgian citizenship. U.S. Secretary of State Clinton 5-6 June met President Saakashvili, pledged support for Georgian coastal defence, urged consolidation of democratic gains, said U.S. to recognise Abkhaz, South Ossetian “status neutral” passports issued by govt. Abkhaz FM 25 June said Georgia “terrorising” inhabitants in Gali district, urged U.S., UN, OSCE to pressure Georgia.
80,000-100,000 attended mass rally 27 May in Tibilisi marking start of opposition coalition Georgian Dream election campaign. Ruling United National Movement reduced residency requirement for Georgian-born EU citizens running for presidency to 5 years; Georgian Dream leader Bidzina Ivanishvili refused to use amendment, said changes “propaganda tricks”, asked to be granted dual citizenship instead. State audit agency fined private company $3mn for allegedly making political donations to Georgian Dream. Russian Anti-terrorism Committee (NAK) 10 May reportedly discovered of arms cache in Abkhazia, alleged Caucasus Emirate leader Doku Umarov planning attack in Sochi in cooperation with Georgian security services.
Ministry of Justice 4 April rejected request to reinstate citizenship of billionaire opposition leader Bidzina Ivanishvili through naturalisation, said only dual citizenship possible; opposition Christian-Democrats announced plans to initiate constitutional changes allowing Georgian-born EU citizens to run for office; ruling party voiced support for motion. President Saakashvili 10 April unveiled 1st domestically produced spy drone; 19 April announced plans for armed drones, 150,000 strong volunteer reserve force. NATO SG Rasmussen 3 April called Georgia “model partner”, reiterated NATO support for future Georgian membership. President Saakashvili 26 April said ready to resign if Russia withdraws from S Ossetia, Abkhazia. In S Ossetia, former KGB head Leonid Tibilov 19 April sworn in as new President after winning 54% in 8 April polls. In Abkhazia, authorities 12 April arrested 4 in connection with Feb assassination of President Ankvab; former Interior Minister Kchach 16 April committed suicide in Sukhumi, reportedly to avoid arrest over assassination attempt; another suspect 17 April reportedly attempted suicide before police arrest; further suspect Timur Khutaba 18 April found hanged in prison cell.
Russia 2 March refused to reciprocate unilateral Georgian removal of visa requirements for Russian citizens, instead demanded Tbilisi revise “Law on Occupied Territories” regarding presence of Russian troops in Abkhazia, S Ossetia in contravention of EU-brokered 2008 ceasefire with Moscow. President Saakashvili said diplomatic relations with Russia could not be re-established without Russian recognition of Georgian sovereignty over breakaway regions. Abkhazia 10, 24 March held parliamentary elections, independents reportedly won 74% of votes. S Ossetia 25 March held first round of presidential elections, run-off scheduled 8 April. Georgian police 4 March reportedly came under fire at guard post near Administrative Border Line with Abkhazia. Georgian Chamber of Control 11 March began large-scale interrogation of opposition party activists, ostensibly to ensure campaign finance transparency; Amnesty criticised move as politically motivated intimidation. Georgian billionaire opposition leader 20 March fined $1.65 million for illegally funding Georgian Dream movement to oust President Saakashvili.
Newly-elected de facto president of Abkhazia Aleksandr Ankvab survived 5th assassination attempt unharmed 22 Feb; 1 bodyguard killed in highly coordinated roadside attack; actions described by Ankvab as attack on “state sovereignty” of Abkhazia by criminal groups; Abkhaz officials doubted any connection with Tbilisi central govt. Ankvab early-Feb received head of European Commission delegation to Georgia, criticised EU’s Abkhazia policy, said no reason for further meetings with EU officials. Tensions in South Ossetia following Nov de facto presidential elections after annulled victor in elections Alla Dzhioyeva hospitalised 9 Feb when masked security forces stormed her HQ, allegedly assaulted her day before her planned symbolic self-inauguration. 25 March “repeat” elections called after opposition leader Dzhioyeva’s victory thrown out by pro-Moscow local constitutional court; Dzhioyeva said will not run again. Restrictions tightened on foreign media. Concerns Georgia could be drawn into escalating conflict between Tehran and Israel after police 13 Feb defused bomb planted on Israeli diplomat’s car in Tbilisi (see Iran). Billionaire businessman-turned-politician Bidzina Ivanishvili and 3 partner political parties 21 Feb formed opposition coalition for Oct parliamentary elections.
Situation stable in breakaway republic South Ossetia (SO) following Nov elections and standoff prompted by disqualification of apparent victor Alla Dzhioyeva. Dzhioyeva 18 Jan announced withdrawal from Kremlin-mediated 10 Dec agreement, requested acting president Brovtsev cede power to her, 21 Jan said planned 25 March repeat election illegal. Dzhioyeva and Brovtsev held “constructive” talks 23 Jan, Brovtsez replaced several ministers and advisers. Destabilisation and tensions in breakaway Abkhazia as Georgian, Abkhazian authorities exchanged accusations over 2 high-profile murders in Gali region 29 Dec, 9 Jan. In Tbilisi, new draft electoral code endorsed by parliament late Dec criticised by opposition and internationally for failing to incorporate opposition proposals, recommendations from international election observer missions; elections scheduled for Oct. Tbilisi expressed concern over news of Russian military drills “Kavkaz 2012” to be held Sept. President Saakashvili met with U.S. President Obama 30 Jan, discussed security cooperation, trade.
Following disputed late-Nov de facto presidential election in breakaway republic South Ossetia (SO), supporters of disqualified apparent victor Alla Dzhioyeva continued to protest, 4 Dec announced they would stage an inauguration for Dzhioyeva. Incumbent president Kokoity’s term officially ended 7 Dec. Dzhioyeva and Kokoity 9 Dec reached Russian-brokered compromise deal: Dzhioyeva agreed to acknowledge legality of Supreme Court ruling and end protests; Kokoity agreed to step down, fire 3 officials. Uncertainty continued however after Dzhioyeva 10 Dec alleged Kokoity violated agreement with new appointments, and parliament failed to endorse agreement. During 18th round of Geneva talks, mediators proposed Russia commit to refrain from use of force, implement 2008 ceasefire agreements; instead, Abkhazia and SO, backed by Russia, proposed removal of issue of “international security arrangements” from discussions. Billionaire businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili 11 Dec launched new public movement Georgian Dream ahead of 2012 parliamentary elections; several thousand attended launch. Tbilisi court 27 Dec upheld Oct presidential ruling stripping Ivanishvili of Georgian citizenship. Parliament 27 Dec passed new election code, 28 Dec passed controversial amendments restricting party funding.
Flaring tensions in breakaway republic South Ossetia after its Supreme Court 29 Nov annulled 27 Nov second round vote for de facto president, in which opposition candidate Alla Dzhioeva took surprise lead over Kremlin-backed Anatoly Bibilov in unofficial results, citing electoral violations. Parliament barred Dzhioeva from running in rescheduled elections March 2012. Dzhioeva supporters challenged legality of court ruling, hundreds protested outside Central Election Commission 30 Nov; security personnel fired shots into air. Following Georgian and Russian acceptance of proposal unblocking Russia’s entry into WTO, sides signed agreement 9 Nov. In largely symbolic victory for Tbilisi, European Parliament 17 Nov adopted resolution on EU’s Association Agreement with Georgia, referring to Abkhazia and South Ossetia (SO) as “occupied”, calling on EU to formally recognise them as such, calling Russia “occupying force”. Billionaire businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili, whose citizenship was revoked Oct following his announcement of intention to enter politics ahead of 2012 parliamentary elections, 1 Nov said he would appeal to President Saakashvili for restoration of citizenship.
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