No tangible progress early month in 17th round of Geneva talks, established after Aug 2008 war to negotiate security between Georgian, Russian, Abkhazian and South Ossetian (SO) representatives. Breakthrough in negotiations over Russia’s WTO membership, after Georgia 27 Oct accepted Swiss proposal for international monitors at border between Georgia’s 2 breakaway republics and Russia. Bidzina Ivanishvili, billionaire businessman and former ally of President Saakashvili, announced intention to establish political party and cooperate with centrist western-oriented opposition Republican Party and Free Democrats; following announcement Civil Registry Agency declared Ivanishvili’s citizenship invalid, and police 18 Oct seized vehicle and arrested staff of Ivanishvili’s Cartu bank on money laundering charges. Opposition parties condemned govt attempts to “repress” Ivanishvili. 17 candidates running for 13 Nov presidential elections in SO. Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly 5 Oct adopted resolution calling on member states to refrain from recognising independence of Abkhazia, SO.

No improvement in relations with Russia; President Saakashvili’s 22 Sept speech at UNGA criticizing Russia’s Georgia policy and “terrorist acts” met with hostile rhetoric from Moscow. Russia’s state Duma 22 Sept ratified military treaties with breakaway Georgian regions of Sukhumi and Tskhinvali. Fifth round of Swiss-mediated talks over Russia’s WTO entry failed to yield result. European Court of Human Rights 22 Sept held hearing of application lodged by Georgia against Russia in connection with Aug 2008 war, alleging Russian military and separatist forces carried out indiscriminate and disproportionate attacks against civilians in breakaway republics; Russia dismissed allegations. Parliament released draft of new electoral code drafted by ruling United National Movement, which says it reflects provisions of reform deal reached late June with 2 of 8 opposition parties. 15 opposition supporters jailed 8 Sept for forming illegal armed group to help return fugitive former defence minister Irakli Okruashvili to Georgia during May anti-govt protests.

In step further consolidating control in South Ossetia (SO) and Abkhazia, Russian President Medvedev 8 Aug submitted legislation to Duma to form customs union, recognize military bases in breakaway regions. Russian military 12 Aug opened new border post in SO. In context of Russia and Georgia WTO negotiations, Medvedev 4 Aug indicated WTO could serve as forum for restoring normal economic, diplomatic relations, but stressed Georgia could not change “political realities on the ground”. Georgian Deputy FM Sergei Kapanadze stated any agreement towards Russian WTO accession would be politically “status neutral”, voiced support for Swiss proposal involving exchange of advance information between countries, international monitoring. Russian FM Lavrov early Aug indicated for first time Russia ready to talk to current Georgian govt without preconditions. Russia criticized late July U.S. Senate resolution supporting Georgian territorial integrity, describing Russian presence as “occupation” of Abkhazia and SO. 26 Aug presidential election in Abkhazia, rejected by U.S. and EU, won by businessman Aleksandr Ankyab, former high ranking Communist party official regarded as more sceptical on Russian political and military influence in Abkhazia. Tbilisi criticised for forced evictions of IDPs from two locations prompting protests in capital.

Continued deterioration in Georgia-Russia relations as countries exchanged further allegations: Georgia accusing Russia of supporting a spy network on its territory, politicians in Russia accusing Georgia of re-building military to threaten Abkhazia and South Ossetia, aiding radical Islamist insurgents in North Caucasus. Russia criticised June visit by U.S. warship to Batumi, Georgia. Police 7 July detained 3 prominent photojournalists on suspicion of supplying secret information to Russian Defense Ministry, prompting criticism from journalist groups. Suspects agreed to plea bargain deal 22 July, received suspended sentences. President Saakashvili 28 June announced “completion” of electoral reform discussions, after govt succeeded in gaining majority consensus for its proposed electoral system reform, effectively splintering Group of 8 opposition coalition; 6 opposition parties 10 July unveiled new coalition to continue campaign for political liberalization. Parliament 5 July passed civil code allowing religious minority groups to be registered as legal entities; President Saakashvili 7 July signed amendment into law despite protests from opposition, Georgian Orthodox Church.

Rights groups claim dozens still missing in wake of violent late-May protests. Fate of 2 men found dead following protests still unclear: police report accidental electrocution, but protesters claim evidence of possible police involvement in deaths. Subsequent reports indicate riot police and military used excessive force against protesters; rights groups, U.S. govt and OSCE called for investigation. After govt ignored original 31 May deadline by moderate opposition “group of 8” parties to respond to proposals on electoral code, ruling UNM party representative 17 June met with representative of group, vowed to give concrete answers to proposals. At 16th round of internationally-mediated Geneva talks on security issues 7 June, Georgia repeated claims that Russia conducting “bombing campaign” in Georgia; Russia said would study allegations.

Series of daily protests calling for removal of President Saakashvili began 21 May, attracting between a few hundred and a few thousand protesters mainly from one relatively marginal party. Dozens arrested as demonstrators clashed with police; 1 police, 1 protester killed 26 May in clashes when run over by opposition activist’s motorcade; dozens injured on both sides. Parliament 20 May recognised 19th century massacre and deportations of Circassians in Sochi region by Tsarist Russia as “genocide”. 2 Georgians reported wounded 18 May by SO militias who tried to detain them close to Administrative Boundary Line. De facto Abkhazia president Sergei Bagapsh died in Moscow 29 May following surgery.

1 Russian soldier, 2 Georgians killed 8 Apr in shootout in Gali region near de facto Abkhazia-Georgia border; Moscow alleged Georgians were security personnel from interior ministry, Tbilisi denied, said incident a dispute between criminal groups. Abkhazia 11 Apr called alleged Georgian actions “terrorism”, warned of increasing tensions in region. No independent observers allowed to investigate. Russian FM Lavrov in 25 Apr trip to South Ossetia (SO) said Russia ready to protect SO from Georgian “military provocations”. ICJ 1 Apr ruled it had no jurisdiction to hear Georgia’s case against Russia regarding abuses during Aug 2008 war, cited failure of parties to negotiate before proceeding to Court. President Saakashvili 1 Apr called for intensified security following end-March foiled terrorist attack in western city Kutaisi, blamed on “external forces”. U.S. annual human rights report 8 Apr identified some improvements in Georgia but noted continued abuse of prisoners, arbitrary detentions and restrictions on freedom of speech.

Joint Abkhaz-Russian commission held border talks 28 March-1 April. Reports suggest Russia seeks to acquire 160km2 of Abkhazian territory; Tbilisi 18 March condemned talks as illegitimate. 15th round of Geneva talks on 2008 Georgia-Russia conflict 4 March ended in deadlock; issues include international peacekeeping in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, pledges on non-use of force. Follows Feb allegations by senior Russian official of Georgian involvement in Jan Domodedovo airport bombing. Senior opposition figure Nino Burjanadze 15 March called for peaceful revolution; opposition group People’s Assembly same day promised “concrete action” beginning early May. Russia 11 March detained 9 Georgian citizens for “illegally crossing the South Ossetian state border”. Tbilisi 22 March alleged Russian agents commissioned May 2010 assassination of interior ministry official Dimitri Kordzadze. Religious tensions rose in Abkhazia after suspected poisoning late March of local Mufti and his wife; followed earlier reports of young Muslim killed by mercury poisoning.

Parliament 18 Feb began discussing draft new National Security Concept, which identifies “Russian aggression” as major threat to Georgian security. Parliament also discussed “Freedom Charter”, law increasing surveillance and police powers. Interior Ministry 16 Feb said it had arrested 3 further suspects in relation to late-2010 bomb blasts in Tbilisi including suspected key figure Merab Kolbaia; brings total arrests to 9. UNHCR 3 Feb reported no “major violations” of international standards occurred during Jan evictions of IDPs from Tbilisi; group of Georgian NGOs condemned report. Abkhaz local elections 12 Feb saw 39% turnout following opposition boycott; Tbilisi condemned vote as “pseudo-democratic”. Tbilisi, South Ossetia 20 Feb exchanged 14 prisoners, 7 from each side, held since 2008 war.

Govt 15 Jan announced continuation of evictions from Tbilisi of IDPs from Abkhazia and South Ossetia (SO), following first wave June-Aug 2010. Opposition parties voiced support for IDPs, several people protesting evictions arrested 20 Jan after clashes with police. European Court of Human Rights 10 Jan dismissed 1,549 claims relating to Georgia’s conduct in Aug 2008 war with Russia, due to applicants’ failure to supply requested information. SO claimed decision “unjust”. Georgia 17 Jan boycotted closed Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly (PACE) session on 2008 war, citing PACE’s failure to address Russian breaches of its previous resolutions. Russia deployed Tochka tactical missile unit at its base in SO late Jan. Abkhazia de facto defence ministry 19 Jan launched 2-day training exercise, simulating complete mobilisation of armed forces. SO, Russia 31 Jan launched combined military drills.