Opposition mounted sustained protest campaign against President Saakashvili, while tensions between Georgia and Russia rose as each accused other of provocations, troop build-ups at borders. Opposition protests began 9 Apr with turnout of 30,000-60,000 in Tbilisi, less than hoped-for 150,000; smaller rallies in other cities. Protests continued over month though with lower turnout, and 13 Apr started picketing Saakashvili residence. Organisers vowed to continue until Saakashvili steps down. Opposition reportedly  split  mid- Apr over possible talks with President.  Reports  emerged that Russian troops started entering Abkhaz Gali region 7 Apr, and EU monitoring mission (MM) 13 Apr reported extra Russian troops, equipment at South Ossetia (SO), Abkhaz administrative borders; Russia cited “precautionary measures”. EUMM 16 Apr reported reinforcements moved back from Abkhaz border. NATO 15 Apr announced exercises near Tbilisi starting 6 May; accused of “provocation” by Russia; Russia 30 Apr signed pacts gaining formal control over its borders with SO, Abkhazia. First ambassadorial level talks with NATO since Aug held 29 Apr. 2 Russian representatives to NATO expelled over alleged spying scandal 30 Apr. 2 OSCE monitors briefly detained by SO forces 12 Apr.

Political tensions increased ahead of major opposition protests planned for 9 Apr, with 13 parties now demanding President Saakashvili’s resignation. Tensions escalated dramatically with 23 March arrest of 9 opposition Democratic Movement-United Georgia (DMUG) members for illegal weapons possession. DMUG leader Nino Burjanadze claimed govt persecution, but govt 25 March released footage of DMUG officials discussing possibility of civil war to oust Saakashvili. Govt 24 March arrested 2 men allegedly discussing plan to assassinate Saakashvili 9 Apr. Rising political temperature coincided with speculation over possibility of renewed conflict with Russia, with increasingly hostile rhetoric between Moscow and Tbilisi and 20 March intelligence chief’s report that Russia attempting to create instability in Georgia. Meanwhile NATO FMs 5 March announced restoration of full diplomatic links with Russia, despite Russia’s continued presence in breakaway Abkhazia and South Ossetia (SO) in violation of Aug peace plan. Russia 20 March confirmed setting up military bases in Abkhazia, SO, further solidifying presence. 2 mines exploded on SO administrative border with Georgia 29 March killing 1 police, injuring 8.

Some progress on security arrangements for Abkhazia, South Ossetia (SO): OSCE 12 Feb extended 20-strong unarmed military monitoring mission operating near SO to 30 June – though Russia continues to block extension of OSCE Mission to Georgia, ended Dec. UNSC 13 Feb extended UN Observer Mission in Georgia to 15 June; and in Geneva talks Russia, Georgia 18 Feb agreed on mechanism to prevent SO security incidents, including weekly meetings. SO 9 Feb claimed 2 unexploded Georgian shells landed in Tshkhinvali - Tbilisi denied; 2 OSCE monitors briefly detained in SO 10 Feb. EU monitors reported 40 ethnic Georgians temporarily expelled from their Abkhaz village 26 Feb; Abkhazia denied. Georgia 18 Feb said will send troops to join NATO-led Afghanistan forces. Reports emerging that Russia planning 3 military bases in Abkhazia. Govt troubles continued: Former UN envoy Alasania 24 Feb announced creation of Alliance for Georgia with Republican, New Rightist parties; called for referendum on early election. Finance minister Gilauri appointed PM, following 31 Jan resignation of PM Mgalobashvili. Independent Abkhaz newspaper editor accosted 6 Feb by 3 men, 1 allegedly related to Abkhaz leader; told to stop criticizing leadership. 2 ethnic Armenians arrested Jan still being held on espionage charges.

Situation at Ossetia administrative border still tense with repeated attacks on Georgian police, including 16 Jan fatal shooting of policeman, allegedly by sniper in South Ossetia; 2 police wounded 19 Jan after truck came under fire close to border. Several incidents also at Abkhaz administrative border, including 8 Jan attack on Georgian village with automatic grenade launchers. Human Rights Watch 23 Jan said Russia and Georgia both guilty of “numerous violations of the laws of war” during Aug 2008 conflict, South Ossetian forces engaged in ethnic cleansing of Georgian villages. U.S.-Georgia Charter on Strategic Partnership signed 9 Jan, including plan for NATO- Georgia commission, U.S. military assistance. Opposition criticized govt deal with Russian company Inter RAO on joint management of hydropower plant on Abkhaz administrative border for lack of transparency, perpetuating dependence on Russia. Abkhaz official 29 Jan said talks underway with Moscow to set up Russian bases in Abkhazia. 12 opposition parties 29 Jan signed joint declaration calling for President Saakashvili to resign, early elections. Negotiations continued with Russia on continuation of OSCE mission to Georgia.

Fragile security situation around conflict zones. South Ossetia: shots fired 10 Dec at OSCE monitors near administrative border. EU Monitors 13 Dec criticized Russian re-deployment to disputed Perevi village; troops remain in village. Shots allegedly fired at Georgian police checkpoint in Ganmukhuri village 4 Jan from Abkhazia, Abkhaz deny involvement. Further round of Georgian-Russian Geneva talks 17-18 Dec focused on conflict prevention and resolution mechanisms. OSCE 22 Dec announced early 2009 pullout after Russia blocked mandate extension; diplomatic efforts to keep mission to begin with new OSCE chair Greece. Parliamentary war inquiry commission 19 Dec released report confirming govt claims that Russia started aggression. In further cabinet reshuffle, President Saakashvili replaced foreign, defence, education ministers. Prominent UN Ambassador Irakli Alasania resigned 4 Dec. Republican Party and New Rights Party 8 Dec announced new opposition political alliance; former PM Nogaideli 3 Dec inaugurated new opposition party. NATO FMs 2 Dec agreed closer cooperation, offered “Annual National Program” for Georgia, but not membership action plan (MAP).

Situation around South Ossetia (SO) and Abkhazia conflict zones remains unstable with shots fired 23 Nov at car carrying President Saakashvili and Polish President Kaczynski near SO administrative border. 2 killed, 9 injured by unmanned drone crash near SO 17 Nov. Georgian policeman shot dead near Abkhazia 15 Nov. 10 Nov Dvani blast left 2 Georgian police dead. SO militias 15 Nov left disputed Perevi village after takeover from withdrawing Russian troops caused ethnic Georgians’ flight – Russian troops returned to restore security. Informal Georgia-Russia talks in Geneva 19 Nov on refugee return, future security arrangements, included representatives of Abkhazia, SO. EU 1 Dec launched war inquiry mission; Swiss Heidi Tagliavini appointed head of mission. Mounting political pressure on Saakashvili in wake of anniversary of Nov 2007 violent crackdown on opposition: 10,000 in anti-govt rally; 350 protested 23 Nov against Nov 07 closure of independent IMEDI TV station, requested return to ‘legal owner’. Former parliamentary speaker Burjanadze 23 Nov inaugurated new opposition Democratic Movement-United Georgia, called for early elections. Saakashvili 4 Nov dismissed army chief Zaza Gogava, citing failures during August war.

In aftermath of August war, EU monitoring mission confirmed Russian withdrawal from territory adjacent to South Ossetia (SO) and Abkhazia by 10 Oct deadline – around 7,600 Russian troops to remain in breakaway regions. EU mission blocked from SO, amid separatist authorities’ accusations that observers ignored “Georgian provocations”. Tbilisi 29 Oct denied BBC findings of war crimes against SO civilians. Security situation around conflict zones still fragile with car bomb in Tskhinvali 3 Oct killing 9 Russian troops. Near Abkhazia, local official and 2 civilians killed in blast 25 Oct, following fatal shootings 24 Oct of local official in Gali district and 22 Oct of Abkhaz defence ministry’s intelligence unit chief Eduard Emin-Zade. Geneva talks on future security arrangements broke down 15 Oct over attendance of separatist authorities. EU special envoy Pierre Morel visited Tbilisi and Moscow 25-28 Oct to negotiate new talks format. UNSC 9 Oct extended UNOMIG mandate for 4 months. Internal political struggle continued with growing opposition pressure: President Saakashvili 27 Oct replaced PM Gurgenidze with former ambassador to Turkey Grigol Mgaloblishvili; 4 other ministers dismissed. Influential former parliamentary speaker Burjanadze 29 Oct announced launch of new opposition party. At 22 Oct Brussels conference donors pledged $4.55b. Parliamentary commission to investigate Aug events started hearings 23 Oct.

Security situation remains fragile with continued Russian military presence amid growing internal political struggles. French President Sarkozy negotiated modified ceasefire comprising Russian withdrawal excluding breakaway regions Abkhazia, South Ossetia (SO), deployment of 200 EU monitors and no-use-of-force agreement. EU monitoring mission started patrolling “buffer zones” around conflict zones 1 Oct. Talks over further OSCE monitors deadlocked after Russia refused access of intl observers to conflict regions. Russia 17 Sept signed friendship treaties with regions including military assistance, establishment of army bases, after Russian President Medvedev announced 7,600 troops to remain in Abkhazia, SO. Tense situation in areas around conflict zones saw 3 Georgian policemen shot dead. Tbilisi 22 Sept claimed downing of Russian spy plane – Moscow denied. At UN, Russia proposed arms embargo on Georgia. NATO ambassadors held first session of NATO-Georgia commission during 15-16 Sept visit to Georgia. ICJ 8 Sept concluded public hearings on Georgian charges of ethnic cleansing against Russia. In wake of growing opposition pressure, President Saakashvili announced “second Rose Revolution” with “wave of new democratic reforms” in parliamentary speech 16 Sept, again in 23 Sept UN address. 3 member parties of United Opposition 17 Sept called for early elections. Parliament 25 Sept established commission to investigate Aug events. Public defender Sozar Subari 30 Sept set up “Public Movement for Freedom and Justice” following strong 25 Sept statement accusing govt of authoritarianism.

Devastating decline in political, security and humanitarian situation with war between Georgia and Russia over breakaway regions. After heavy clashes 1-2 Aug in South Ossetia (SO), Tbilisi 7-8 Aug launched military offensive on Tshkinvali. Russia responded immediately with massive attack with ground troops, air bombardments, naval attack; 9 Aug cited “genocide” and “responsibility to protect” its citizens. Separatist Abkhaz forces 8 Aug commenced fighting in Abkhazia, assisted by Russian planes; captured Georgian- controlled Kodori gorge 12 Aug. Tbilisi started withdrawal from SO 10 Aug, as Russian troops advanced further into Georgia, causing massive civilian displacement in SO, adjacent Georgian district of Gori. Casualties disputed: Russia reduced initial claim of up to 2,000 dead to 133 civilian and 64 Russian soldiers; Human Rights Watch documented 419 killed, mostly SO militia; Georgia says 69 civilians, 215 Georgian troops killed. UNHCR estimated 30,000 from SO, 128,000 within Georgia displaced. Tbilisi 12 Aug filed application at ICJ, accusing Russia of ethnic cleansing. ICC chief prosecutor Moreno-Ocampo said 20 Aug court analysing war crimes allegations. Fighting sparked heavy international engagement: EU, U.S. criticised Moscow’s “disproportionate” response; G7 FMs 27 Aug in unprecedented joint statement condemned Russia’s “excessive use of force”. French President Sarkozy 12 Aug presented 6-point ceasefire agreement including end of hostilities, withdrawal of troops, international talks on separatist regions; President Saakashvili, Russian President Medvedev signed 15-16 Aug. UNSC deadlocked after Moscow, U.S.20, 22 Aug rejected respective draft resolutions over issues of territorial integrity, implementation of 6-point agreement. Russian army official announced 23 Aug 2,600 forces to remain in “zone of responsibility” around conflict regions and in port of Poti; U.S. President Bush urged full withdrawal, accused Moscow of ceasefire breach. U.S. army-led humanitarian aid mission launched 13 Aug. Moscow 21 Aug suspended NATO cooperation. Medvedev 26 Aug recognised SO, Abkhazia independence following non-binding Duma resolution; EU,U.S. denounced move; SCO declined to support Russian recognition (see Tajikistan). Tbilisi 29 Aug cut diplomatic ties with Russia. EU leaders to discuss possible sanctions, future Moscow ties at 1 Sept extraordinary summit.

Tensions remain high in breakaway regions: in Abkhazia 6 July 4 explosions near administrative border with Georgia, 1 bomb in Gali district left 4 dead; further explosion 27 July in Gali. De facto leader Bagapsh rejected both 8 July U.S. proposal of international police force, German plan including direct talks on confidence-building measures and refugee return revealed by German FM Steinmeier 17 July in Tbilisi. In South Ossetia (SO), 2 killed in 4 July clashes between Georgian army and separatist forces, shelling of Tskhinvali following attack on Tbilisi-backed head of SO administration Dmitri Saakoyev. 1 killed in blast 25 July; shoot-out reported 29 July. SO authorities 8 July briefly detained 4 Georgian servicemen at border, accused of spying. In ongoing row with Russia, Tbilisi 10 July withdrew ambassador after Moscow flew 4 planes over SO “to prevent military scenario”; parties traded accusations in 21 July UNSC debate. Georgia national security commission official threatened retaliation in case of further airspace intrusion. Moscow 30 July started withdrawal of 400 railway forces deployed in Abkhazia in May. During 9-10 July Tblisi visit U.S. State Sec Rice urged Russian restraint.