CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
In row with Russia over breakaway Abkhazia, Tbilisi protested 31 May deployment of 400-strong railway force; NATO head de Joop Scheffer called for withdrawal, said Russia “escalating situation”. President Saakashvili, Russian President Medvedev met 6 June in St. Petersburg at CIS summit, no agreement reached. Moscow warned of “bloodshed” if “provocations” continued after 4 peacekeepers briefly detained 17 June in Zugdidi district. European Parliament 5 June adopted resolution calling for revision of peacekeeping format, deployment of ESDP border mission. EU foreign policy chief Solana urged direct negotiations during 5-6 June Tbilisi, Sukhumi visits. Separatist authorities blamed Georgia for 2 bombs 29 June in Gagra, 2 explosions in Sukhumi 30 June; announced border closure 1 July. New parliament first session 7 June; some 11 opposition MPs renounced their seats. In South Ossetia separatist region 1 soldier left dead in 14-15 June clashes between Georgian, South Ossetian forces.
Continued Russia-Georgia tensions over breakaway Abkhazia: Russia PM Putin 31 May stated support for Georgia’s March “broad autonomy” offer; Georgia Interior Minister Merabishvili 28 May accused Russia of arming separatists to prevent Georgia NATO entry. Moscow 8 May revealed 2,542 peacekeepers stationed in region, 31 May sent additional 300-strong unarmed army railway unit; 6 peacekeepers reported briefly detained by Georgian security services 18 May, Zudidi. UN 26 May confirmed Russia 20 Apr downed unmanned drone: Tbilisi 31 May announced halt of spy flights. UNOMIG 8 May rejected Russian claims of Georgian troop increase in Kodori valley. Tbilisi 5 May announced withdrawal from 1995 air-defense treaty with Russia. Abkhazia forces claimed downed 5 unmanned spy planes 4-12 May; Tbilisi denied. UNGA 15 May adopted Georgia-sponsored resolution recognising right of refugee return. Swedish, Polish, Slovenian, Lithuania FMs in Georgia 12 May pledged support for Georgian sovereignty; low-level EU visit 8-9 May. Ruling National Movement strongest in 2 May parliamentary elections forming 59% constitutional majority; nine-party opposition bloc second 17.64%. 39 polling station results annulled after Central Election Commission observed “grave violations”. International observers said elections better than Jan presidential, but unevenly and incompletely implemented. Up to 50,000 in 26 May protest against results; opposition leaders announced boycott new parliament, plans for “alternative parliament”. Several blasts in Georgian-Ossetian conflict zone: 3 explosions reported 16 May; 2 bombs 29 May.
High Russian-Georgian tensions over Abkhazia breakaway region. Moscow 29 Apr announced, 1 May commenced, unilateral increase of peacekeepers (PKF) in Georgian populated areas of Abkhazia; threatened “military reaction” if Georgia invades, claiming it deployed 1,500 troops in Upper Kodori valley – Tbilisi denies; continues to push for changes in Russian-led PKF. NATO, EU called for lowering tensions; U.S. urged Russian restraint. Tbilisi 21 Apr accused Russia of shooting down unmanned reconnaissance plane over Abkhazia; Moscow rejected, claiming plane violated 1994 ceasefire, shot down by Abkhaz forces. Russian President Putin 16 Apr announced recognition of legal documents issued by Abkhaz and South Ossetian de facto authorities; Tbilisi condemned. UNSC 15 Apr extended mandate of UN Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG) for 6 months. Preparations for 21 May parliamentary elections: speaker Nino Burjanadze of ruling UNM 21 Apr withdrew candidacy; New Rights party announced 7 Apr to join opposition National Council; President Saakashvili 14 Apr warned opposition against popular unrest; OSCE established election observer mission 10 Apr. France 23 Apr granted political asylum to former Defence Minister Okruashvili after sentenced in absentia 28 March to 11 years. No NATO membership action plan offered at 2-4 Apr Bucharest summit, but political commitment for eventual membership made.
Protests against 5 Jan presidential election results continued with 10,000-strong rally 15 Feb in Tbilisi. Opposition National Council dropped hunger strike threats 22 Feb after parliament speaker Burjanadze agreed to release detained Nov 2007 protesters and Central Election Commission chair later this month. New board of trustees for public broadcaster appointed 26 Feb. Opposition figure Patarkatsishvili died 12 Feb in London from heart attack. Patarkatsishvili-backed Imedi TV station remained closed after decision on reopening postponed 15 Feb. President Saakashvili threatened police intervention if journalist detained in Abkhazia 26 Feb not released. UN-led talks on Georgian-Abkhaz tensions held 18-19 Feb in Geneva. Saakashvili and Russian President Putin vowed to “improve ties” in 21 Feb Moscow meeting but Putin denounced Georgia NATO membership.
Saakashvili re-elected with 53% of vote in first round of early presidential elections 5 Jan; sworn in 20 Jan. United Opposition candidate Levan Gachechiladze came second with 25%. Opposition rejected results claiming fraud. Most opposition and NGO complaints to courts and election commissions dismissed on procedural grounds. 50,000 rallied 13 Jan in Tbilisi to protest elections. OSCE observer mission endorsed elections but noted “significant challenges”. New PM Lado Gurgenidze announced cabinet reshuffle 24 Jan: former Conflict Resolution Minister David Bakradze appointed FM. Presidential candidate and businessman Badri Patarkatsishvili charged with terrorism and conspiracy to overthrow government 11 Jan: assets frozen 25 Jan. Licence of Patarkaksishvili-backed Imedi TV station again to be reviewed 15 Feb. Saakashvili and Russian PM Lavrov met 20 Jan to “improve ties”. Relations with separatist regions remain tense: UN says Georgian media’s inaccurate reports on situation in Abkhazia’s Gali region fuel tension. Border protection service rejected Abkhaz claims of opening fire at Georgian ship 24 Jan. Separatist president Bagapsh ruled out resumption of talks with Tbilisi 14 Jan. De facto South Ossetia leader Eduard Kokoity called on OSCE and Russia 23 Jan to arrange direct talks with Saakashvili.
Caretaker government appointed inter-agency group to oversee 5 January presidential elections in apparent step to increase electoral transparency. Opposition groups alleged government inflated voter list to rig election. Top prosecutor accused opposition leader Badri Patarkatsishvili’s campaign manager of planning pre-election coup citing video evidence released 24 December; Patarkatsishvili reportedly requested official withdrawal from candidate list 4 January. Coup charges against him from November dropped; he remains abroad, citing risk of arrest and government assassination plot. Patarkatsishvili-backed broadcaster Imedi station re-opened 12 December after month-long closure for anti-government coverage but went off air 26 December. Russia-Georgia relations further strained: United Russia party leader Boris Gryzlov said Duma likely to recognise Abkhaz and South Ossetian independence in January. Acting Georgian President Nino Burdzhanadze stated move would imply declaration of war, 14 December.
President Saakashvili declared state of emergency 7 November in response to large-scale anti-government protests in Tbilisi from 2 November calling for his resignation and early parliamentary elections. Violent police crackdown left over 500 injured, including 3 opposition figures and 24 policemen; independent broadcaster Imedi TV shut down after police raid. U.S., EU and international bodies condemned move. Day later Saakashvili announced early presidential elections for 5 January. State of emergency lifted on 16 November but Imedi broadcast ban remains. President accused Russia of fomenting unrest; several opposition figures accused of conspiracy to overthrow government and pro- Russian espionage; charges pressed against 2. Ahead of the early poll, government announced amnesty for 1000 inmates, food distribution and pension and teacher salary increases. Saakashvili resigned 25 November to begin campaign, in line with electoral law; parliamentary speaker Nino Burjanadze took up interim presidency. 9 opposition parties backed candidacy of Levan Gachechiladze; 22 other candidates also announced intention to contest presidency, including Natelashvili. Authorities took over Standard Bank 27 November in attempt to target assets of opposition candidate Patarkatsishvili.
Georgia-Russia relations tense after 30 October incident at Georgian youth camp in Georgian-controlled area of Abkhazia. Tbilisi accused Russian peacekeepers of detaining several policemen; President Saakashvili declared peacekeeping force commander Sergey Chaban persona non grata. UNSC extended UN Observer Mission 6 months, expressed concern over recent clashes, called on sides to ensure freedom of movement for observers and peacekeepers, and reaffirmed right of refugee and IDP return 15 October. 1 man killed in 17 October incident: Sukhumi said customs guard shot by Georgian guards; Tbilisi said returned fire on man trying to board stolen vehicle. Conflict resolution minister Davit Bakradze met de facto Abkhaz foreign minister Sergey Shamba in Sukhumi 25 October; agreed to release 7 Abkhaz militiamen captured in 20 September clash and resume weekly quadripartite talks on local security near ceasefire line, suspended since November 2006. Situation also remained tense in South Ossetia with continuation of shooting incidents and ongoing construction of bypass road connecting Georgian-administered enclaves. Joint Control Commission met in Tbilisi 23-4 October for first time since August 2006; no agreement, but security, freedom of movement and OSCE-led rehabilitation discussed. Major opposition rally due in Tbilisi 2 November following series of anti-government protests.
Former Defence Minister Okruashvili arrested on money laundering and abuse of power charges 27 September – days after accusing President Saakashvili of authoritarian rule; 28 September protest in Tbilisi drew thousands. Parliament approved proposal to increase troop levels from 28,000 to 32,000, and defence spending to $765 million for 2007. Saakashvili criticised UNSG report on Abkhazia for recommending Georgian youth camp be moved away from Abkhaz ceasefire line 6 September; used speech at UN to slam Russia’s role in conflict regions 26 September. Tbilisi reported its forces killed 2 separatist militants, captured several more 20 September; Sukhumi said were border guards training. In South Ossetia, Tskhinvali authorities held “independence day” civilian parade with military components 20 September. Georgian forces detained 2 North Ossetian peacekeepers in zone of conflict, on suspicion of criminal activity, 29 August. Protracted exchanges of fire took place south of Tskhinvali 27 September; 1 reported injured.
Georgia-Russia tensions escalated significantly as guided missile fell near South Ossetia (SO) 6 August, and parties traded accusations, including at UN. No explosion or casualties. Tbilisi accused Russia of violating airspace; alleged further incursion 22 August. Moscow denied any involvement, accused Georgia of fabricating incidents to aggravate tensions over Russian role in SO and Abkhazia. SO de facto leader Eduard Kokoity said ready to meet President Saakashvili to sign non-use of force agreement 8 August: non-starter for Tbilisi. Tbilisi’s repeated offers of “widest possible autonomy” rejected by Tskhinvali. Joint Control Commission again failed to meet despite planned 8-9 August session. Abkhaz de facto leader Sergey Bagapsh met Russian Deputy FM Karasin Moscow 6 August. 12 followers of exiled opposition leader, Igor Giorgadze, convicted of plotting coup in 2006.
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