CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Sergei Bagapsh elected president of unrecognised republic of Abkhazia, winning 92% of votes in 12 January repeat of disputed October 2004 election. Bagapsh’s rival-turned-running mate Raul Khajimba elected vice president. Abkhazian and Georgian foreign ministers expressed readiness to resume negotiations at March Geneva UN meeting. Tensions rose between Georgia and South Ossetia after spate of tit-for-tat kidnappings; all but 1 of abductees later released. President Saakashvili unveiled new South Ossetia peace initiative offering autonomy and series of steps to integrate region into Georgia - South Ossetia leader Eduard Kokoity promptly rejected it. Relations between Tbilisi and Moscow remained strained: after refusing to extend OSCE border monitoring mission, Russia said Chechen terrorists continue to hide in Pankisi Gorge. Tbilisi called allegation hypocritical and excuse for Russia to conduct “preventive strikes” against Georgia.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Election crisis in Abkhazia defused after Russia brokered deal between rival presidential candidates Sergei Bagapsh and Raul Khajimba, ending 2-month standoff. Crisis resolved hours before Bagapsh’s planned inauguration 6 December, as candidates signed agreement “freezing” disputed 3 October election results and promising to participate in new elections as single team, with Bagapsh running for president and Khajimba vice-president. But situation in South Ossetian conflict zone remained fragile; neither side fulfilled demilitarisation pledges made in November. Relations with Azerbaijan deteriorated after Azeri resident of Georgia’s Kvemo Kartli region, which is heavily populated by Azeris, was killed in land dispute. President Saakashvili announced second cabinet reshuffle in 6 months; 2005 budget approved with 38% increase in defense spending.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Crisis over disputed 3 October presidential elections in Abkhazia persisted. Supporters of Sergei Bagapsh, opposition candidate, seized government buildings in Sukhumi 12 November in show of force. Election commission and Supreme Court had initially declared Bagaph victorious over government candidate Raul Khajimba, but Court later reversed decision under pressure from Khajimba supporters, ordering new elections within 2 months. Bagapsh rejected new election call and prepared to hold inauguration 6 December. Elsewhere, 20 November deadline for demilitarisation of Georgian-South Ossetian conflict zone - set during 5 November talks in Sochi between Georgian PM Zurab Zhvania and South Ossetia leader Eduard Kokoity - not met. At 20 November meeting in Vladikavkaz sides agreed to multi- staged demilitarisation. But situation remains tense, with exchanges of gunfire between Georgian and Ossetian villages.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Political crisis following 3 October presidential election in breakaway region of Abkhazia led Abkhaz Supreme Court to order repeat election within 2 months. Controversial decision came 29 October, just after Court had declared opposition candidate Sergei Bagapsh winner with 50.32% of vote, defeating government candidate Raul Khajimba. Court’s reversal allegedly came after pressure from Khajimba’s supporters. In South Ossetia, 2 Ossetian peacekeepers killed 12 October. Media reported deaths came after Georgian security forces conducted special operation in conflict zone to stop group sabotaging Georgian electric lines. Joint Control Commission co-chairs met Tbilisi 20 October; agreed talks between Georgian PM Zurab Zhvania and South Ossetian leader Eduard Kokoity to take place in Sochi no later than 10 November.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Tensions remain high despite Georgian military’s August withdrawal from South Ossetian conflict zone; South Ossetia accused Tbilisi 17 September of massing troops on internal border in preparation for new attack. Meanwhile, in wake of Beslan killings, Russia said Chechen terrorists remain in Georgia’s Pankisi Gorge, raising fears of possible Russian military action. Presidential election in separatist Abkhazia region set for 3 October.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Fighting between Georgian and South Ossetian forces intensified, leaving around 20 Georgian troops and at least 5 Ossetians dead. Risk of escalation in violence remains, despite announced reduction of Georgian troops in conflict zone to 500 – maximum allowed under 1992 peace agreement establishing joint peacekeeping force. Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili lashed out at alleged Russian support to South Ossetia; called for international conference leading to demilitarisation of region and introduction of international peacekeeping force; expansion of OSCE mandate in separatist region; and joint Russian- Georgian border and customs checks at Roki tunnel, major route connecting Russia and South Ossetia. Tensions also worsened vis-à-vis separatist Abkhazia region, as Saakashvili ordered Georgian naval vessels to fire on ships travelling illegally in Georgian territorial waters along Abkhaz coast.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Risk of conflict remains high as Tbilisi continues to pressure breakaway region of South Ossetia in hopes of reuniting it with rest of country. Sides exchanged small arms and artillery fire 29-30 July. Georgia intercepted Russian military convoy in region and confiscated equipment 7 July. Several dozen Georgian troops captured by South Ossetia next day; all but 3 later released. Armed skirmishes and war of words continued throughout month. Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili threatened to renege on 12-year-old agreement that ended original conflict, and called for change in mandate of Russian peacekeepers, who he accused of bias toward South Ossetia. Georgia seeking to apply economic pressure on Ossetian leadership through control of Roki tunnel, major trade and smuggling route connecting Russia and South Ossetia.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Tensions rose between Tbilisi and South Ossetia, as President Mikheil Saakashvili, following successful May resolution of crisis with Ajara region, began manoeuvring to bring second of Georgia’s 3 breakaway regions (other is Abkhazia) under central control. Georgian troops cut off major smuggling route, heavily damaging on South Ossetian economy, while Tbilisi offered Ossetian citizens pensions and aid. South Ossetia alleged Tbilisi massing troops on internal border; Tbilisi said Russia supporting and equipping South Ossetia. In Abkhazia, several senior officials, including acting foreign minister and head of security services, resigned following assassination of opposition leader Garri Ayba. President Saakashvili’s party won sweeping victory - with over 77% of vote - in 20 June parliamentary election in Ajara.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Crisis with Ajara resolved peacefully 6 May with resignation and departure for Moscow of Aslan Abashidze, region's authoritarian leader. After weeks of mounting tension between Abashidze and Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili, crisis came to head 2 May as 3 bridges linking Ajara to rest of country blown up on Abashidze's orders; local support for Abashidze fell away; Russia played constructive role. Saakashvili set 20 June date for new elections in Ajara, vowed to preserve region's autonomy. Attention now shifting to Georgia's other breakaway republics, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Officials there concerned Saakashvili will move to bring both regions under Tbilisi's control. Latter quoted as saying unification would take 2 years for Abkhazia, significantly less for South Ossetia. Tensions briefly rose as Georgian troops deployed to village of Tkviavi, 10km from Ossetian capital Tskhinvali, but troops quickly withdrawn.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Civil conflict potentially imminent as standoff between President Mikheil Saakashvili and authoritarian leader of Ajara region Aslan Abashidze worsened. Saakashvili said Tbilisi not afraid to use force to "liberate" Ajarans from Abashidze's "criminal" rule, as Georgian military began exercises 30 April at Black Sea port of Poti, 30km from Ajara. Abashidze ordered mobilisation of forces in response to growing tensions, and Ajaran police used truncheons to suppress anti-Abashidze protest 30 April in Batumi. Central Election Commission (CEC) annulled 28 March parliamentary election results from 2 districts of Ajara after declaring them fraudulent and abandoning plans to repeat vote. Results leave Abashidze's Revival Party severely weakened, with only 6 seats in 150-seat parliament.

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