Standoff between Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili and leader of autonomous region of Ajara, Aslan Abashidze, ended 18 March after latter reportedly made key concessions, averting for moment feared civil conflict. After being denied entry to Ajara by armed supporters of Abashidze, Saakashvili had imposed economic blockade on region, demanding entry, release of opposition activists detained by Ajaran authorities, and promise that 28 March parliamentary elections would be conducted freely and fairly in Ajara. Deal ending standoff apparently mediated by Russia, which has military base in Ajara. International observers reported 28 March elections were most democratic in country’s history, though widespread irregularities reported in Ajara. Preliminary results indicated only 1 opposition party, New Rightists/Industrialists, reached controversial 7% threshold required to enter parliament. Tension between Saakashvili and Abashidze continues to pose risk of future violence.

Parliament approved constitutional amendments strengthening powers of presidency and creating post of prime minister. Amendments criticised as undemocratic and aimed solely at installing Zurab Zhvania, Minister of State, as PM. Parliament also approved new cabinet – one of Europe’s youngest. Government’s aggressive anti-corruption campaign continued. Son-in-law of former president Eduard Shevardnadze arrested aboard plane bound for Paris on suspicion of tax evasion. Reports of media intimidation and police abuses raising some concern. Council of Europe Secretary General Walter Schwimmer urged lowering of 7% threshold for political party representation in parliament under proportional voting system, as legislature could have only single party following 28 March elections. In Ajara, authoritarian leader Aslan Abashidze under growing pressure from opposition groups; claimed Tbilisi preparing armed invasion of breakaway region. Separatist republic of Abkhazia sent delegation to Tbilisi for talks on resolving dispute, but refused to participate in 17-18 February negotiations in Geneva.

Mikheil Saakashvili received over 96% of vote in 4 January presidential election, reported by international and local observers to have been significantly fairer than 2 November parliamentary vote: inaugurated 25 January amid festive atmosphere in Tbilisi. New parliamentary election set for 28 March. Following Saakashvili victory, Aslan Abashidze, authoritarian leader of Ajara region, reimposed state of emergency and arrested members of pro-Saakashvili youth organisation, Kmara. Indications Abashidze’s regime weakening vis à vis Tbilisi; following conciliatory gestures from both sides, tensions high in anticipation of move by Abashidze’s opponents, backed by Tbilisi, to oust him. U.S. said would help pay for closure of Russian military bases in Georgia, including one in Ajara, after Russia claimed withdrawal would take 11 years. Following meeting with UN special envoy Heidi Tagliavini, Abkhaz foreign minister said ready to resume peace talks with Tbilisi. Turkey seeking mediation role.

Tbilisi gripped by fears of counter-coup, possibly by military forces loyal to exiled former State Security Minister Igor Giorgadze. Several bomb blasts and other violent incidents reported throughout month. Concern that country could disintegrate or descend into civil war – or both – as result of power games between rival political factions ahead of 4 January presidential elections and secessionist aspirations of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Ajara regions. Russia offering tacit support to breakaway regions; hosted leaders for talks in Moscow, sparking outrage from Tbilisi and rebuke from U.S. Sec. State Colin Powell. Aslan Abashidze, authoritarian leader of Ajara, said will call off planned boycott of January election.

Peaceful revolution swept President Eduard Shevardnadze from power, but risk of violence and fragmentation of country remains. Uprising, dubbed “Rose Revolution” and led by 35-year-old lawyer Mikheil Saakashvili, spanned three weeks of mass protests against fraudulent 2 November elections; culminated 22 November when Saakashvili and supporters stormed parliament while Shevardnadze delivered speech inside. Georgian police and interior ministry troops offered no resistance. After visit from Russian Foreign Minister Ivanov, and call from U.S. Secretary of State Powell, Shevardnadze resigned following day. Presidential elections set for 4 January 2004: Saakashvili expected to win. Aslan Abashidze, authoritarian leader of autonomous region of Ajara, declared state of emergency and partially closed border with rest of Georgia. Concern that Ajara will follow secessionist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in demanding independence; Russia, in slap to Tbilisi, hosted leaders of three regions for talks in Moscow.

U.S. stepping up pressure on Tbilisi ahead of 2 November parliamentary elections, widely expected to be less than fair. Days after announcement U.S. cutting aid to Georgia, American delegation including Senator John McCain, former Chairman of Joint Chiefs John Shalikashvili, and former Deputy Sec. State Strobe Talbott met with government and opposition officials, saying Georgia’s international standing would receive “serious blow” if major election violations. President has rejected calls to postpone election until inaccuracies in voter lists cleared up. Rally 23 October by opposition National Movement in Batumi, capital of Ajara autonomous region, broken up by Ajaran security forces with 70 arrested. Elsewhere, two alleged Georgian gunmen shot dead in breakaway republic of Abkhazia after ambushing car full of Abkhaz officials, killing three. Settlement still nowhere in sight. Talks with unrecognised republic of South Ossetia also stalled.

OSCE election monitoring experts arrived in Tbilisi ahead of 2 November parliamentary elections. Run-up to vote characterised by incidents of violence and widespread pessimism that elections will be fair. Increasing crime levels also raising concern. Justice minister resigned after mass jail break on 10 September; over 50 prisoners remain at large. U.S. announced cut in aid to Georgia, particularly to energy sector. Kidnappings and sporadic confrontations between guerrillas and Abkhazian forces reported in recent weeks. New PM approved by parliament in breakaway province of South Ossetia.

Parliament finally approved composition of new electoral commission, but compromise went against recommendations of U.S. envoy James Baker aimed at preventing electoral fraud in Nov. 2003 elections. Little progress made in negotiations over future status of Abkhazia.