CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Filters

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Relative calm returned to domestic politics amid criticism over controversial law. After former President Mikhail Saakashvili and his supporters agreed to cease hunger strike in Dec, political tensions eased off; hearings of Saakashvili’s corruption case continued during month. Leadership of main opposition party United National Movement (UNM) 10 Jan changed key positions, vacating party chair. Irakli Kobakhidze of ruling party Georgian Dream 17 Jan said ruling party consolidated as ever. UNM 31 Jan ended its boycott of parliament, seeking commission to investigate treatment of Saakashvili and warning of “fierce Spring protests”. President Zourabichvili 13 Jan signed off controversial law amendment that abolished State Inspector’s Office, govt body that had launched investigation into alleged violations of penitentiary office related to imprisonment of Saakashvili; move prompted criticism from UN country team and numerous Georgian NGOs as well as U.S., which 3 Jan said amendment “undermined government accountability” and “damaged Georgia’s aspirations for NATO and European Union membership”. Amid U.S.-Russia negotiations on European security architecture, FM David Zalkaliani 6 Jan spoke to U.S. Deputy Sec State Wendy Sherman, insisting on Georgia’s freedom to “pursue an independent foreign and security policy”; FM 17-18 Jan visited NATO headquarters in Belgian capital Brussels to reiterate Georgian aspiration to join NATO. Meanwhile, head of the EU Monitoring Mission in Georgia and special representative of OSCE chairperson-in-office for South Caucasus 20 Jan jointly facilitated 104th meeting of Incident Prevention and Response Mechanism, format bringing together Georgian and Russian officials along with de facto authorities and foreign mediators; participants “focused on ongoing detention cases”, also discussed impact of “protracted closure of crossing points” while co-facilitators “noted with concern the increased number of detentions in recent weeks”. Following Dec violence around opposition rally in breakaway Abkhazia, de facto Prosecutor’s Office 8 Jan detained at least four individuals; opposition People’s and Patriotic Union of Abkhazia, group uniting several key opposition groups that led Dec protests and opposition lawmakers, 8 Jan condemned detentions, which it said are politically motivated.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Tensions between govt and opposition remained high, while breakaway Abkhazia’s political leadership faced new scandal and violent protest. Detained former President Mikheil Saakashvili 2 Dec attended second hearing on corruption case, which he rejected. Prosecutor 10 Dec began investigation into former Deputy Interior Minister Giorgi Lordkipanidze for allegedly helping Saakashvili’s illegal border crossing. Large-scale protest 21 Dec gathered in capital Tbilisi, and opposition party United National Movement chairman called for “mass hunger strike” until Saakhashvili’s release. Authorities 30 Dec moved Saakashvili from Gori military hospital to prison in Rustavi town. Opposition members 15 Dec held closed-door talks with ruling Georgian Dream party on constitutional amendments as part of EU-brokered April deal; President Zourabichvili 16 Dec hosted members of Georgian Dream and opposition, and called for political reconciliation. Following Oct scandal in breakaway Abkhazia, where former de facto Interior Minister Dmitry Dbar and police clashed with MPs and veterans over independence celebration, de facto President Aslan Bzhania 3 Dec reappointed Dmitry Dbar to head of de facto state security service. House searches of two alleged hosts of Facebook pages “insulting” officials 2-3 Dec resulted in street brawl, with de facto Deputy Tourism Minister Dato Kajaia reportedly firing gunshots several times, injuring one. De facto authorities 3 Dec detained Kajaia and two alleged social media hosts, and dismissed officials, including Kajaia and de facto interior minister. Bzhania 6 Dec appointed former Russian official Valter Butba as new de facto interior minister. After de facto president 20 Dec warned protesters reportedly rallying against pandemic response and energy crisis, demonstrators 21 Dec violently clashed with security forces. De facto president met twice with representatives of opposition 21 Dec to discuss demands; Prosecutor’s Office 23 Dec opened criminal investigation into protesters. Breakaway South Ossetia 1 Dec ratified agreement with Russia on dual citizenship; 16 Western states, including UK, U.S. and Canada, 3 Dec labelled agreement “step toward de facto annexation”. South Ossetia 1, 9 12, 23 and 27 Dec detained ten Georgian citizens for illegally crossing de facto border, and 3, 19 and 24 Dec released six.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Imprisonment of former President Mikheil Saakashvili continued to fuel political tensions and protests, prompting international concern. Amid growing concerns over Saakashvili’s health, on hunger strike since early Oct, United National Movement (UNM) party 6 Nov organised protests demanding Saakashvili’s release in capital Tbilisi; at least 3,000 people reportedly gathered, authorities arrested dozens. Authorities 8 Nov transferred Saakashvili to prison clinic, which he next day claimed was enforced with physical violence; Saakashvili demanded transfer to civilian hospital. Tbilisi City Court 10 Nov began trial against Saakashvili; former president’s lawyer same day refused participation citing court ban on Saakashvili’s attendance, after which court adjourned trial until 29 Nov. Demonstrators 23 Nov gathered in Tbilisi to express solidarity with Saakashvili. Protesters 29 Nov rallied outside Tbilisi City Court; police used pepper spray to clear crowds and arrested 15 people. Situation prompted international concern. European Court of Human Rights 16 Nov ruled in interim decision that Saakashvili must end hunger strike and ordered authorities to provide “appropriate medical care”; U.S. and EU ambassadors to Georgia 19 Nov called for authorities to take steps to protect Saakashvili’s health. Saakashvili 19 Nov announced end to hunger strike if govt transferred him to civilian hospital; govt 20 Nov agreed to proposed transfer to special hospital. Ten opposition MPs early to mid-Nov started solidarity hunger strike, which 20 Nov ended with former president’s transfer to hospital. Meanwhile, de facto Abkhaz authorities 17 Nov appointed former Kremlin adviser Inal Ardzinba new de facto FM.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Ruling Georgian Dream party won local elections as arrest of former President Mikheil Saakashvili fuelled tensions between opposition and govt. In local elections held 2 Oct, Georgian Dream won 46.7% of votes, surpassing 43% threshold for snap parliamentary elections set by EU-brokered April deal from which party withdrew in July; largest opposition party United National Movement (UNM) came in second with 30.7% of vote. Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) observation mission same day concluded elections were “well-administered”, despite “allegations of intimidation, vote-buying, pressure on candidates and voters, and an unlevel playing field”; UNM 3 Oct alleged “election results were falsified”. Run-off round took place 30 Oct to decide winner in number of key towns as well as capital Tbilisi; Central Election Commission 31 Oct announced Georgian Dream won 19 of 20 mayoral polls, including all major cities, prompting head of UNM Nika Melia to reject “rigged results” and call for street rallies in protest. After founder of UNM and former President Mikheil Saakashvili 1 Oct returned to Georgia from Ukraine, authorities same day arrested him on corruption charges which he rejected; Saakashvili immediately announced hunger strike. In its largest street protest ever, UNM 14 Oct gathered 50,000 supporters in capital Tbilisi to demand Saakashvili’s release; dozens of former and current European foreign officials 18 Oct called for Saakashvili’s release. Prosecutor’s Office 21 Oct charged Saakashvili with crossing border illegally. Meanwhile, in breakaway entity Abkhazia, violent altercation ensued after de facto Interior Minister Dmitry Dbar accompanied by police reportedly sought to disarm de facto MP Garri Kokaia who had fired shots in air at late Sept celebrations of 28th anniversary of territory’s declaration of independence. Demonstrators 1 Oct rallied against Dbar outside de facto parliament building while de facto President Aslan Bzhania same day convened emergency parliamentary session. Bzhania 3 Oct suspended Dbar pending investigation into the incident; motion in de facto parliament to dismiss Dbar from his post however failed by one vote. Bzhania visited Russian capital Moscow twice during month for high-level meetings with senior Russian officials, including with Deputy PM Marat Khusnullin.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Acrimony between opposition and ruling Georgian Dream party surfaced ahead of Oct local elections, raising prospect of disputed results. Country prepared for local elections scheduled for 2 Oct, with opposition members throughout month characterising poll as “referendum” to end nine-year-long rule of Georgian Dream party and voicing concerns over possible voting irregularities. Under EU-U.S. brokered agreement signed in April between opposition and govt, local elections should lead to snap parliamentary elections if Georgian Dream fails to obtain 43% of vote share; ruling party withdrew from deal in July. Meanwhile, opposition media 13 Sept leaked thousands of reports and transcripts of conversations allegedly recorded by Georgian security services containing details of personal and professional lives of dozens of Georgian clerics, prompting launch of investigation by Georgian Prosecutor’s Office; Georgian Church claimed leaks are attempt to discredit clerics. Former senior official Megis Kardava, facing charges of torture, rape and murder, 17 Sept arrived for trial in Georgia after his extradition from Ukraine; Kardava is expected to testify against former Georgian leaders, who are now key opposition figures. De facto authorities of breakaway regions Abkhazia and South Ossetia facilitated participation of Russian passport holders in Russian parliamentary elections 17-19 Sept by opening polling stations and encouraging voting; Georgia 20 Sept condemned holding of elections in two breakaway regions.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Breakaway territory Abkhazia received Russian support amid new wave of COVID-19 cases, and breakaway South Ossetia signed dual citizenship law with Moscow. In Abkhazia, de facto govt 12 Aug announced ban on mass gatherings as daily COVID-19 cases rose during month, notably reaching 162 on 17 Aug; de facto authorities 27 Aug confirmed total of 372 deaths and 24,952 cases to date among total population of approximately 200,000 people. In show of support, Russian defence ministry 17 Aug constructed field hospital with 100 beds in de facto territory, and following de facto President Aslan Bzhania’s late July visit to Russian capital Moscow, Abkhazia received delivery of some 5,000 Russian-made coronavirus vaccines purchased with diaspora-raised funds. In breakaway territory South Ossetia, Russian President Putin 4 Aug signed new law on dual citizenship with de facto leadership, facilitating access to Russian citizenship for young people in breakaway region; Georgia 5 Aug condemned law as “a continuation of policy of unlawful occupation and de-facto annexation”.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Far-right mob attacks at Pride event in capital Tbilisi undermined political reconciliation deal; engagement between Tbilisi and breakaway territories displayed some positive signs. Pride march 5 July held in capital Tbilisi, but quickly sparked backlash from far-right demonstrators who clashed with pro-LGBTQ+ participants, leaving over 50 journalists injured; organisers same day cancelled march in light of near-absent police protection and far-right attacks. PM Gharibashvili same day claimed “radical opposition” led by former President Saakashvili was behind march to spread unrest; authorities’ failure to prevent violence sparked international criticism, including from Western embassies, along with EU and UN representatives. Political tensions heightened further after confirmation that cameraman Aleksandre Lashkarava had died 11 July from injuries suffered during 5 July disorder; 19 civil society organisations immediately called on Gharibashvili and Interior Minister Vakhtang Gomelauri to resign, while hundreds 11-12 July protested in Tbilisi, and smaller protest took place in Black Sea port city Batumi, demanding PM’s resignation; in Tbilisi, scuffles 12 July broke out between govt and opposition MPs in parliament. Reconciliation deal between govt and opposition faced further strains after govt 12 July appointed six Supreme Court judges in contravention of April agreement, sparking criticism from EU and U.S. officials 14-15 July. Amid growing political turmoil, ruling Georgian Dream party 28 July announced that it considers EU-brokered April deal “annulled”. Meanwhile, following 53rd round of Geneva International Discussions held late June, Inguri crossing between breakaway Abkhazia region and Tbilisi-controlled territory 5 July reopened after 478-day closure due to COVID-19. Georgian and South Ossetia representatives 8 July agreed technical solution to cross-line water supply issues. As part of exchange of detainees, South Ossetian de facto leader Anatoly Bibilov 14 July pardoned Georgian citizen Zaza Gakheladze who was detained in July 2020.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Discord surfaced between govt and opposition, threatening implementation of April agreement, while govt and breakaway territories engaged in meetings to resolve issues. Discord and political rivalry between govt and opposition challenged implementation of EU- and U.S.-brokered April agreement that ended months-long political standoff. Notably, opposition MPs – most of whom rejoined parliament late April – 9 June opposed ruling Georgian Dream party’s draft bill on amnesty, which includes protection for police officers charged with “abuse of power” during June 2019 unrest when thousands protested in capital Tbilisi after Russian MP addressed session in parliament building from seat of Georgian parliament speaker and spoke in Russian. Ruling party MPs in turn 11 June voted down alternative law proposed by opposition parties. Meanwhile, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) co-chairs, EU and UN 6-10 June held discussions on humanitarian and security issues with officials from breakaway territories and govt in capital Tbilisi, South Ossetia’s de facto capital Tskhinvali, Abkhazia’s de facto capital Sukhumi and Russian capital Moscow. Georgian representatives raised imprisonment of four Georgian citizens in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, while South Ossetian representatives raised continued discontent with police outpost established in 2019 at Ossetian village of Tsnelisi area at line of separation. OSCE Sec Gen Helga Schmid 14-16 June visited Georgia, including Tsitsagiantkari village at line of separation with South Ossetia, and took part in 100th Incident Prevention and Response Mechanism meeting. Fifty-third round of Geneva International Discussions 29 June began; Georgian delegation sought to raise issue of Georgian detainees in breakaway territories while South Ossetian and Abkhazian sides concentrated on non-use of force agreement.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Govt and opposition focused on implementing EU and U.S.-brokered April agreement that ended political crisis. In line with EU and U.S.-brokered deal last month that concluded months-long political stalemate following Oct 2020 elections, main opposition parties and civil society representatives throughout May discussed amendments of electoral code – including provisions to consider more opposition representatives in top leadership of Central Election Commission and installation of video cameras at all electoral precincts ahead of local elections. Authorities 10 May released opposition United National Movement (UNM) leader Nika Melia from his pre-trial detention. EU and U.S. lawmakers throughout month continued to call on European Georgia and UNM opposition parties to relinquish their hard-line positions, sign brokered agreement and enter parliament; European Georgia party 18 May said it would continue boycott of parliament, although most party members had already joined parliament in their individual capacity. Ending months-long boycott, UNM 30 May decided to join parliament.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Govt and opposition reached deal to end months-long political crisis following EU- and U.S.-facilitated talks. Ruling Georgia Dream party and most opposition parties 19 April signed EU- and U.S.-brokered agreement to end political deadlock that followed contested parliamentary election in Oct 2020; deal, which formally ends months-long opposition boycott of parliament, includes plans for electoral and judicial reforms, and could lead to release of jailed opposition members. Most opposition MPs 27 April joined parliament; meanwhile, one activist backing opposition movement same day released from prison following presidential pardon. In de facto entity Abkhazia, Georgian State Security Service 7 April found bodies of four Georgian residents of Gali district who had attempted to swim across Inguri river between Abkhazia and Georgia-controlled villages; crossing points have been largely closed since March 2020 due to COVID-19 restrictions. Following public criticism after incident, govt 14 April announced lifting of requirement for people entering Georgia from Abkhazia to enter five-day mandatory quarantine, as of 19 April.

Subscribe to Crisis Group’s Email Updates

Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.