CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

EU-facilitated talks between govt and opposition concluded without deal, while opposition lawmakers in de facto South Ossetia ended six-month boycott of parliament. After court last month sentenced leader of main opposition party United National Movement Nika Melia to pre-trial detention, prompting PM Giorgi Gakharia to resign in protest, European Council President Charles Michel 1 March arrived in capital Tbilisi and, without prior notice, invited both ruling party and opposition to joint meeting; following talks, both sides declared their commitment to continue discussions on contentious issues, including recent parliamentary elections, arrest of opposition members and need to reinforce role of opposition in parliament. Michel 8 March appointed Christian Danielsson as special envoy to continue talks; Danielsson 12-19 March held meetings with both parties and announced that discussions concluded without deal; opposition said ruling party refused to demonstrate flexibility regarding their demands for snap elections and release of those detained, while ruling party said opposition had put forward “anti-state ultimatums”. Michel 23 March announced that Danielsson will return to Tbilisi by 27 March to continue talks; following further talks between govt and opposition on EU proposal for agreement that included provisions of electoral and judicial reform as well as addressing “politicised justice”, Danielsson 31 March said he was “sad to report that none of the political parties could agree to this solution in whole.” In breakaway South Ossetia, opposition parliamentarians 16 March returned to parliament for vote on candidacy for new PM after six-month boycott; de facto President Anatoliy Bibilov’s candidate Gennady Bekoyev was confirmed as PM. De facto leader early 4 March announced constitutional reforms subject to possible referendum.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

PM Gakharia resigned following court’s decision to arrest opposition leader. Tbilisi city court 17 Feb sentenced to pre-trial detention leader of main opposition party United National Movement (UNM) Nika Melia for his role in calling on protesters to take over parliament during June 2019 unrest; Melia previously sentenced to home arrest in July 2019; opposition leaders and prominent politicians same day gathered in support of Melia at UNM headquarters. PM Giorgi Gakharia 18 Feb resigned, citing his opposition to court’s decision that was at odds with position of ruling Georgian Dream party, which supported court’s decision. Georgian Dream same day nominated former Defence Minister Irakli Garibashvili as new PM. Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe chairperson-in-office and Swedish FM Ann Linde 16 Feb visited Georgia for meetings with leadership and to discuss situation in breakaway regions. Restrictions on crossing from Abkhazia to Georgia-controlled territory 11 Feb eased for elders, pensioners and people with special needs; crossings had mostly remained closed, due to COVID-19, for almost a year.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Opposition parties largely continued to boycott parliament, while protests persisted in de facto South Ossetia over death in police custody. Amid opposition boycott of parliament following disputed late Oct election, four members of opposition Alliance of Patriots 5 Jan quit opposition party and took seats in parliament in line with calls from ruling Georgian Dream party; two members of opposition Citizens Party 29 Jan also took seats, while other opposition members continued boycott throughout month. Georgian Dream 11 Jan offered to establish independent commission, which would also include foreign diplomats as well as local and international NGOs, to recount remaining ballots from 2020 elections; main opposition parties 26 Jan called on Georgian Dream to return to talks; according to law, mandates of MPs will be cancelled unless all those elected take seats by end of Jan. Bidzina Ivanishvili, Georgian Dream founder, 11 Jan announced that he quit party chairmanship and politics “for good”. In breakaway South Ossetia, small-scale protests demanding resignation of de facto Prosecutor General Uruzmag Dzhagayev and justice for local man reportedly beaten to death in police custody in late Aug continued; protests over lack of investigation, which started early Dec, held throughout month in main square of regional capital Tskhinvali in front of governmental headquarters. Many local parliamentarians also continued boycott of parliamentary sessions to protest lack of investigation into death in custody; boycott, which started in Sept, left numerous senior de facto govt positions vacant due to lack of functioning parliament able to conduct approvals of govt nominations. Five former South Ossetia senior officials, including two ex-presidents, 14 Jan proposed mediation between de facto South Ossetia president and protesters. Meanwhile, de facto entity Abkhazia suffered stark increase in COVID-19 deaths throughout month, bringing the total to 11,301 confirmed cases, with 161 deaths 26 Jan. European Court of Human Rights 21 Jan declared Russia in breach of European Convention on Human Rights due to “administrative practice” revealing evidence of civilians being killed and houses looted in South Ossetia and its buffer zones in period after 2008 ceasefire.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Newly-elected parliament held first session, boycotted by opposition parties still demanding snap election. President Zourabichvili 12 Dec inaugurated first session of new parliament, attended only by members of ruling Georgian Dream party amid boycott by opposition parties that demand snap election, release of “political prisoners”, electoral reforms and replacement of electoral administration; five out of eight parties 11 Dec signed symbolic declarations confirming their refusal to enter parliament and cancellation of their party list as talks with Georgian Dream party, facilitated by U.S. and EU ambassadors, had yet to resolve standoff. U.S. embassy and EU delegation 11 Dec issued joint statement expressing “regret that it was not possible to reach a broad-based agreement before the first convocation of the new parliament”. In breakaway South Ossetia, protesters throughout month rallied in front of main governmental headquarters of regional capital Tskhinvali demanding justice for local man reportedly beaten to death in police custody in late Aug, and resignation of de facto Prosecutor General Uruzmag Dzhagayev.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Ruling party won landslide parliamentary election victory, prompting widespread opposition protests. Following first round of parliamentary elections late Oct, results early Nov showed ruling Georgian Dream party won overwhelming majority, gaining 74 seats in new parliament; eight opposition parties collectively won 60 seats, and former ruling United National Movement party received 36 seats. Ahead of official results, all opposition parties 1 Nov declared boycott of parliament, citing issues with ballot count; however, international monitoring mission led by Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe same day stated that “fundamental freedoms were respected” in election; several local observers demanded vote recounts, several of which took place, but no results suggested ballot manipulation. As opposition and civil society leaders publicly voiced grave concerns, head of Central Election Commission 3 Nov alleged that most confusion over ballot count came from new regulation allowing COVID-19 patients to vote from places of self-isolation. Opposition 8 Nov held mass protest in Tbilisi’s central avenue, marching toward Election Commission; scuffles between riot police and protesters injured at least 19, mainly police. Amid opposition boycott of second round of parliamentary elections held 21 Nov, ruling Georgian Dream party secured victory in 13 single-seat constituencies, acquiring majority and allowing party to form new govt without alliances with opposition parties. U.S. Sec State Pompeo 18 Nov visited Georgia to meet ruling party officials. In Abkhazia, de facto leader Aslan Bzhania 14 Nov met with Russian President Putin in Sochi, Russia, to discuss plans for economic and pandemic-related cooperation; as of 27 Nov, entity recorded 5,798 cases, at least 79 coronavirus deaths and almost 2,127 active cases.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Amid rising COVID-19 cases, political tensions subsided in lead-up to 31 Oct election. Tensions emerged ahead of parliamentary elections scheduled for 31 Oct: small-scale scuffles, which started late Sept, 1 Oct continued between ruling Georgian Dream party and opposition United National Movement (UNM) supporters in Kvemo Kartli region, particularly in areas mainly populated by ethnic Azerbaijanis; no reported casualties. Meanwhile, COVID-19 pandemic continued to spread across country, with average of over 1000 new daily reported cases throughout month; govt 16 Oct tightened restrictive measures to fight virus, including prohibition of public gatherings of more than ten people. Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights 11 Oct stated that it will limit election observation mission deployment to core teams of experts and long-term observers due to pandemic. Central Elections Commission (CEC) 31 Oct reported preliminary results, which gave significant lead of over 40% to ruling Georgian Dream party, with opposition United National Movement taking over 20% of votes; some opposition parties called elections illegitimate and planned street protests; according to CEC, more than 46%cast vote in elections. In Abkhazia, amid sharp rise of COVID-19 cases, members of opposition early Oct criticised de facto authorities for apparent lack of sufficient measures to combat pandemic. De facto President Aslan Bzhania 13 Oct introduced additional restrictive measures, such as ban on mass gatherings and closure of schools and kindergartens. In South Ossetia, press service of de facto President Anatoly Bibilov 17 Oct confirmed he had fallen ill with COVID-19; 30 Oct reported he had fully recovered. At request of de facto leadership, Russia deployed military and opened field hospitals to treat COVID-19 in Abkhazia 19 Oct and South Ossetia 27 Oct.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Political tensions ran high in de facto South Ossetia as anti-govt protests continued over death in custody. After numerous senior officials, including interior minister, PM and parliamentary speaker, announced their resignation in response to popular outcry against local authorities prompted by late-Aug death in custody of local 28-year-old man, opposition MPs 2 Sept boycotted parliamentary sessions, preventing quorum, and demanded general prosecutor to leave his position. De facto President Anatoly Bibilov meanwhile refused to resign, a key demand of protesters, and offered instead a parliamentary investigation. Supporters of de facto president 4 Sept held rally, while a few days later opposition 11 Sept organised demonstration. De facto leader 4 Sept spoke with members of Russian presidential administration in Russia’s capital Moscow, reportedly requesting opening of border crossing with Russia that was closed since March due to COVID-19; Russia 15 Sept opened border and sent officials to investigate local needs to respond to pandemic and economic consequences. 

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

De facto South Ossetian leader dismissed cabinet while de facto authorities in Abkhazia faced new spike in COVID-19 cases after reopening border crossing with Russia. Following public calls for his resignation, de facto South Ossetian leader Anatoly Bibilov 28 Aug urgently dismissed cabinet of ministers. Hundreds of people 28 and 31 Aug protested in front of main governmental building after news emerged of death in custody of local 28-year-old man detained 27 Aug for alleged involvement in 17 Aug shooting on car of de facto interior minister; photos circulated on social media of body with multiple bruises, strengthening torture accusations of inmates; local medics said man died due to heart problems. Amid increasingly severe financial deficits in de facto entity Abkhazia, crossing with Russia reopened 1 Aug following July talks between de facto and Russian authorities; reopening of border with Russia, which closed in March to contain spread of COVID-19, led to most serious spike in coronavirus cases since start of pandemic, rising from 81 in July to 224 confirmed cases as of 20 Aug. De facto leadership kept southern crossing with Georgia closed, except for regular launch of temporary “humanitarian corridors” for ethnic Abkhaz and Georgians with Abkhaz documents. Several UN Security Council members – Belgium, Estonia, France, Germany, U.S., and UK – along with Norway and Ireland, 6 Aug made first-ever joint statement in support of Georgia on occasion of 12th anniversary of Aug 2008 war with Russia, criticising presence of Russian military in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Talks between Georgia, Russia and de facto South Ossetian officials resumed following incident at line of separation in South Ossetian conflict zone, while de facto authorities in Abkhazia initiated steps to address COVID-19 fallout. In Abkhazia, after de facto govt 14 July declared region free of COVID-19, de facto officials early July travelled to Russia to discuss reopening of border to Russian tourists in attempt to address increasing financial pressure and budget shortfall; however, 25 new coronavirus cases confirmed during month. For second time since border closure in Feb due to coronavirus outbreak, de facto Abkhaz govt 13-17 July allowed over 2,000 residents to return to Abkhazia from Georgia-controlled territory, including ethnic Abkhaz and Georgians. Govt 11 July reported Russian border guards inflicted bullet-injury on Georgian citizen at line of separation in South Ossetian conflict zone; U.S. 17 July condemned incident during Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe Permanent Council session. Representatives from Georgia and Russia and de facto officials from South Ossetia 30 July held first meeting of Incident Prevention and Response Mechanism (forum to discuss situation on line of separation) since Aug 2019 to discuss “issues pertaining to stabilisation and normalisation on the ground” and impact of closed boundary crossings; parties agreed to plan subsequent meeting scheduled for Sept. U.S. House Appropriations Committee 9 July approved bill to provide $132mn aid to Georgia, but for first time made aid conditional on govt implementation of new electoral reform, support for independence of judiciary, free media access to information and govt measures to limit “informal rule of oligarchs”.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

De facto Abkhazia leadership faced increasing financial pressure and opened humanitarian corridor for return of residents from Georgia. Amid growing speculation that leadership of breakaway republic Abkhazia has insufficient funds to cover basic budget payments, de facto PM Aleksandr Ankvab 11 June commented on financial situation, stating “this is no more just a horror story, this is now our reality.” De facto authorities 12 June officially extended until 1 July some COVID-19 measures, including restrictions on economic exchanges across Russian border; dozens of local residents fearing loss of tourist income previous day protested against restrictions at main border crossing with Russia calling for reopening of border, while pensioners in at least two towns (Gali and Gulrypshi) did not receive pension payments during month. Abkhazia’s State Security Service 19 June announced temporary reopening of Enguri (Ingur) checkpoint with Georgia’s western Samegrelo region to allow local residents to return to Abkhazia 22-24 June. In secessionist territory South Ossetia, International Committee of Red Cross, sole international organisation active in territory since start of COVID-19 pandemic, 19 June delivered over $70,000 of protective equipment to hospitals. Ahead of parliamentary election in Oct, Parliament 29 June adopted constitutional amendments to reform voting system, aimed at more proportional distribution of parliamentary seats; EU and U.S. same day congratulated Parliament, stating “these much-needed reforms will help ensure a free, fair, and transparent election environment.”

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