CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Following large-scale street protests and rise in Georgia-Russia tensions in June, protests eased and Russian President Putin blocked sanctions against Georgia. Presenter on opposition TV channel 8 July broadcast obscenity-filled message directed at Putin, sparking outrage and leading senior govt officials to condemn message and some politicians to publicly express their regret to Russian leader. To calm situation Putin 9 July said that “out of respect for the Georgian people” he would not support new economic sanctions against Georgia which members of Russian State Duma 8 July proposed, including suspending import of wine and mineral water from Georgia. Statement prompted parliamentarians to halt drafting any new sanction bill. Street protests that erupted in capital Tbilisi in June lost momentum. Interior Minister Giorgi Gakharia, whom protesters held responsible for heavy-handed police crackdown on rally in June, 12 July promised to investigate crackdown and punish those responsible but said he would not resign. Leader of Georgian dream party supported interior minister’s decision and 17 July said resignation would have been betrayal of state. Prosecutor’s office 15 and 17 July arrested two policemen involved in crackdown on protesters, and interior ministry suspended ten police officers and head of interior ministry’s Special Task Department. Authorities 15 July arrested four protesters for instigating violence in June. In South Ossetia, de facto special security service 8 July arrested former staff member and his spouse and two current employees for passing secret information to Georgia. Abkhaz opposition leader Aslan Bzhania, still in hospital after alleged poisoning in April, 19 July withdrew his candidacy for Abkhazia’s presidential elections scheduled for Aug and urged voters to support opposition candidate Alkhas Kvitsinia.
Russian MP’s perceived insult to Georgia during 26th General Assembly of the Interparliamentary Assembly on Orthodoxy prompted thousands to protest in capital Tbilisi and raised tensions between Georgia and Russia. Russian MP, Sergey Gavrilov, provoked outrage 20 June when, broadcast live on various Georgian TV channels, he addressed Interparliamentary Assembly on Orthodoxy held in Georgia’s parliament building in Tbilisi from seat of Georgian parliament speaker and spoke in Russian. Group of Georgian opposition MPs rushed to parliament building to demand suspension of session. Protesters same day gathered outside parliament and Russian delegation’s hotel prompting Russian delegation to return to Russia; thousands took to streets in Tbilisi demanding resignation of senior officials whom they held responsible for Russian MP’s appearance in parliament; that night opposition MPs and supporters stormed parliament leading to clashes with riot police; police forcibly dispersed protesters hospitalising over 240 and arresting about 300. Protests continued till end month and were set to continue in July, with demonstrators calling for resignations of top officials, electoral reform and early elections. Parliamentary speaker and MP who had organised 20 June event resigned 21 June and ruling party agreed to initiate electoral reform. Russian President Putin 21 June temporarily banned passenger flights to Georgia from 8 July and ordered evacuation of Russian citizens from Georgia. Russian FM 24 June blamed West for “engineering” protests. De facto Abkhaz security forces 27 June announced restrictions for crossing into breakaway region in response to Tbilisi protests.
De facto leadership of breakaway region Abkhazia 21 May reached agreement with opposition to postpone presidential elections from 21 July to 25 Aug, after opposition mobilised two days of street protests with demand to postpone until Nov and current leadership to resign. De facto authorities deployed riot police for first time in recent history against protesters. Crisis came after opposition late April accused leadership of poisoning one of its candidates who was hospitalised along with two bodyguards and transferred to Moscow after sudden respiratory and heart problems; presidential administration denied accusations.
Breakaway republics Abkhazia and South Ossetia criticised late-March NATO drills in Georgia. Moscow deployed squadron of attack and transport helicopters to Abkhazia 22 April to take part in joint drills with Abkhaz forces, reportedly along with some 3,000 servicemen and over 400 pieces of hardware, including tanks, self-propelled artillery and Russian Black Sea Fleet ships.
Crossings between Georgia and its breakaway regions reopened after two months closure as Russian border guards 15 March lifted all remaining restrictions, allowing regular movement of people and vehicles to Abkhazia and South Ossetia. News made public just hours before visit of foreign mediators of Geneva International Discussions (GID) to South Ossetia; co-chairs praised decision, but said closure “not justified” and asked for more coordination between conflict parties before any similar measures are introduced in future. Among those detained for trying to cross “illegally” was 29-year-old ethnic Georgian found dead at Russian military unit detention centre in eastern Abkhazia, where de facto officials said he committed suicide; Georgian officials launched investigation into case. NATO Sec Gen Jens Stoltenberg 25 March reiterated at joint NATO-Georgia military exercises near capital Tbilisi that “Georgia will become a member of NATO”; said alliance will not accept “that Russia or any other power can decide what members can do”.
Both breakaway republics maintained controversial restrictions on crossing points with regions controlled by Tbilisi, which are mostly used by ethnic Georgians. Abkhazia de facto authorities 5 Feb agreed to soften limits and allow people to use crossings, subject to further consideration in two months. In South Ossetia, de facto authorities 20 Feb gave people three days to leave region before closing border again.
Breakaway region of Abkhazia 11 Jan imposed limits on crossing points with Georgian regions, while South Ossetia same day closed all crossing points with Georgian regions entirely, in both cases citing reason as spike in swine flu cases; eighteen people reportedly died in Georgian-controlled territory in Jan. Georgian govt protested decision and requested intervention from foreign allies, saying outbreak was at similar level to previous year. Move followed de facto leaderships’ repeated expressions of concern, highlighted again during Geneva talks in Dec, over “biological experiments” at U.S.-founded medical laboratory near Tblisi. Closure also comes in context of growing pressure on ethnic Georgians living in breakaways ahead of de facto elections in 2019, who are main users of crossings. Tens of ethnic Georgian residents of Abkhazia 23 Jan held rare protest in front of de facto Gali governor’s office demanding opening of crossing points and new documents and regulations for those who cross.
At swearing-in ceremony of newly-elected President Salome Zourabichvili in Telavi 16 Dec, thousands reportedly attempted to join rally called by defeated opposition candidate Grigol Vashadze but were prevented as police blocked some roads; in ensuing clashes eight police officers and several protestors reportedly injured, one former opposition MP arrested 17 Dec for attack on police vehicle. During 46th round of Geneva International Discussions (GID, main negotiation forum for Georgian conflicts since 2008) 11-12 Dec participants agreed to resume Incident Prevention and Response Mechanism (IPRM, aimed at defusing tensions) in South Ossetian conflict zone after three-month break, with first meeting held 18 Dec, discussing recent detentions along boundary line and other security-related issues. UN, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), EU co-chairs urged participants of GID to resume IPRM meetings in Abkhazia conflict zone.
Second round of presidential elections between ruling party-endorsed candidate and former French diplomat Salome Zourabishvili and opposition coalition’s Grigol Vashadze 28 Nov resulted in victory for Zourabishvili, who gained 59.62% of votes, almost doubling her first-round result; Vashadze finished worse than predicted with 40.38%. Zourabishvili becomes first woman to hold Georgian presidency in permanent capacity. Ahead of second round, local watchdogs complained about vote buying and intimidation of voters, especially when govt promised to write off debts of 600,000 citizens one week prior to election. Opposition refused to accept election results, planning street protests early Dec to reinforce its call for early parliamentary elections. Preliminary joint post-election statements from Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe and European Parliament 29 Nov stated that second round was “competitive and candidates were able to campaign freely”, stressed that “one side enjoyed an undue advantage and the negative character of the campaign on both sides undermined the process”.
During 45th round of Geneva International Discussions 9-10 Oct, launched in 2008 as main negotiation forum for Georgian conflicts, UN, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), EU co-chairs and U.S. and Georgian representatives urged all participants to resume Incident Prevention and Response Mechanism (IPRM) meetings (aimed at defusing tensions along boundary line) after participants from South Ossetia walked out of meeting in Sept. Participants from Moscow, Abkhazia and South Ossetia expressed support for joint steps to restart IPRM meetings. Co-chairs acknowledged achievements of discussions over last ten years, emphasising however that “core issues remain to be resolved”, including adoption of a joint statement on non-use of force and situation of IDPs and refugees. In presidential elections 28 Oct, no candidate received more than 50% required to avoid runoff; second round scheduled early Dec between two candidates: independent Salome Zourabishvili, supported by ruling Georgian Dream party, who won 39% of votes in first round, and Grigol Vashadze from opposition United National Movement-led coalition, with some 38%. OSCE observers concluded voters had genuine choice despite an unlevel playing field, and voting generally orderly and transparent.
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