Month saw further breakdown of main negotiation forum between Georgia, Russia and breakaway republics, which could increase tensions and aggravate difficulties faced by residents of conflict zones. Following months of growing crisis in Geneva International Discussions, launched in 2008 as main negotiation forum for Georgian conflicts and with representatives from Russia, Georgia, de facto Abkhazia and South Ossetia along with U.S., EU, OSCE and UN, de facto South Ossetian officials 14 Sept walked out of meeting of Incident Prevention and Response Mechanism (IPRM, meant to meet every two-to-three weeks, aimed at defusing tensions along administrative boundary line), protesting Interpol’s decision to accept Georgian appeal to add two South Ossetian suspects in Feb 2018 death of ethnic Georgian Archil Tatunashvili. Similar IPRM in Abkhazia context has not taken place since de facto Abkhazia officials walked out in June protesting Georgian intention to prosecute several Abkhazia de facto officials and residents suspected of crimes against ethnic Georgians. Moscow 18 Sept accused Georgia of attempting to add “politically motivated” issues to agenda; Tbilisi accused Russia of attempting to “undermine” IPRM and the Geneva format. Uncertainty on date for next possible meeting, with no side showing readiness to find compromise to resume IPRM meetings. IPRM format is only communication channel between conflict parties to tackle practical problems in conflict zones; next round of Geneva discussions scheduled for mid-Oct, seen as chance to avert potential crisis of Geneva format. Amid growing opposition protests over lack of reforms, rising crime and deteriorating living conditions in de facto Abkhazia, opposition announced major protest in Sukhumi early Oct, demanding de facto leader Raul Khajimba should not run for second term in presidential election scheduled for Aug 2019; some also calling for him to step down early.

Tenth anniversary of August War with Russia provoked emotional public campaign against Russia, coinciding with launch of campaigning for Oct presidential election. Day before anniversary, PM Mamuka Bakhtadze called for peaceful resolution and reintegration of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, underlining that Tbilisi’s response to the continued conflicts would be a “bold peace initiative”. FMs of Latvia, Lithuania and Poland and Ukraine’s vice premier visited Georgia 7 Aug to support its call for withdrawal of Russian army from breakaway republics, backed by similar calls in statements by EU, U.S., and other allies. No major events or commemorations of war in Abkhazia and South Ossetia; events took place late month to celebrate tenth anniversary of Russia’s recognition. During 22-23 Aug visit to Georgia, German Chancellor Merkel travelled to conflict zone near South Ossetia; meeting with students, spoke about “injustice” in relation to continued Russian military presence in Georgia’s breakaway regions, which she called occupation; also downplayed prospects for Georgia’s membership of NATO and EU any time soon.

President Margvelashvili announced at 11-12 July NATO summit that Georgia was ready to join NATO. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg 18 July said Georgia had right to choose for itself whether to join NATO, said Russian pressure was “totally unacceptable”. De facto leader of Georgian breakaway republic South Ossetia visited Syria and met with President Assad 23 July, two months after Syria recognised South Ossetia’s independence.

Following mass protests in May, PM Kvirikashvili resigned 13 June, citing differences with Bidzina Ivanishvili, founder of ruling Georgian Dream party. New PM Mamuka Bakhtadze 28 June announced merge of several ministries, bringing his cabinet from seventeen to eleven ministers.  European Parliament 14 June passed resolution demanding Russia reverse its “decision to recognise the so-called independence of the Georgian territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia”. Govt 26 June presented its Tatunashvili-Otkhozoria sanctions list for approval by parliament; list contains 33 names of suspects in crimes reportedly committed against ethnic Georgians living Abkhazia and South Ossetia since end of wars in 1990s; opposition activists identified at least five dead on list. De facto Abkhaz foreign ministry protested cautioning list could “destroy” only negotiation forum, the Geneva discussions; de facto Abkhaz and Russian officials 27 June staged walk-out from Incident Prevention and Response Mechanism (IPRM) meeting over issue. Several prominent opposition politicians in Abkhazia 5 June joined call for resignation of de facto president Khajimba, criticising him for failure to enact long-promised reforms in police and other state institutions, amid deteriorating economic situation.

Georgia announced it was severing diplomatic relations with Syria and called for international support after Syria 29 May recognised independence of Georgia’s breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In Abkhazia, six prominent local opposition politicians 18 May released statement voicing concerns about plans for a new law enforcement agency comprising police-like body of about 200 people, which would reportedly be responsible for prevention of crime in region, believing it could be used to safeguard current leadership and attack political critics. In Tbilisi, Georgian Dream 11 May elected former PM Bidzina Ivanishvili to chair party, which holds majority in parliament and full control over govt, but had been facing internal splits. During annual U.S.-Georgian Strategic Partnership meeting in Washington 21 May, U.S. Sec State Mike Pompeo affirmed U.S.’s support for Georgia’s eventual membership in NATO, and called for Russia to withdraw troops from breakaway regions.

Govt 4 April unveiled new peace initiative for breakaway regions Abkhazia and South Ossetia, consisting of new package of laws and project papers in three main areas: simplified registration, increased trade, and education opportunities for people living in de facto entities; represents govt’s first plan in at least five years, reportedly took over a year to build consensus around it within ministries and some opposition parties. De facto authorities in breakaway regions declined plan, which they warned could provoke nationalist calls to halt all contact with Georgia; observers noted that Tbilisi had failed to consult de facto officials while preparing it. Moscow criticised initiative. Tbilisi govt to submit plan for parliamentary approval in coming weeks prior to fundraising in foreign capitals.

Geneva International Discussions 27-28 March failed to conclude with statement on non-use of force, which could have represented most serious breakthrough since Geneva talks were launched in 2008. Outcry continued over Feb death in de facto South Ossetian custody of ethnic Georgian Archil Tatunashvili. Georgian parliament 21 March adopted resolution condemning continued Russian military presence in “occupied regions”, calling for more international presence in conflict zone and introducing sanctions – so-called “Tatunashvili-Otkhozoria list” –for those directly responsible for Tatunashvili’s death or other crimes against ethnic Georgians living in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Despite continued requests from Tbilisi, backed by West, de facto South Ossetian authorities continued to refuse to hand over body, citing need for post-mortem by Russian experts; body returned on 20 March, about a month after reported death. De facto Abkhazia and South Ossetia showed record turnout in voting at Russian presidential elections 18 March, with local authorities organising vote and campaigning for Putin; Tbilisi condemned polls in de factos. Russia 19 March launched large-scale military exercises including in Abkhazia and South Ossetia involving some 8,000 troops. Parliament speakers from Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine 2 March issued joint statement saying their countries were “profoundly concerned” about presence of Russian troops in Moldova and “Russian occupation and other forms of military intervention” in parts of Georgia and Ukraine (see Moldova).

Ethnic-Georgian man reportedly died while in custody of de facto South Ossetian authorities 23 Feb, provoking outcry in Tbilisi. Deceased, 34-year-old internally displaced person from South Ossetia Archil Tatunashvili, was involved in cross-border trade along with two others who were also briefly detained; de facto govt accused group of espionage and planned sabotage ahead of 18 March Russian Presidential elections; Georgian govt and relatives denied. De facto officials voiced readiness to hand over body after post-mortem by Russian experts; relatives and political activists 26 Feb protested by briefly blocking two roads connecting South Caucasus to Russia, demanding handover of body. Co-chairs of Geneva talks (conflict settlement platform that allows Georgian, Russian, Abkhaz and Ossetian participants to discuss security and humanitarian issues since 2008 war between Russia and Georgia) expressed strong concern over Tatunashvili’s death and called for more intensive exchange of information between sides, including at 1 March Incident Prevention and Response Mechanism meeting in Ergneti. EU and foreign embassies in Georgia also voiced concern. Georgian parliament prepared special resolution condemning incident; some MPs discussed creation of “black list” of people involved in crimes against ethnic Georgians in breakaway regions to restrict their travel and access to Georgia-provided medical and social benefits. After latest round of Swiss-mediated Georgia-Russia talks on transit trade through South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Russia 2 Feb confirmed its intention to sign contract with Swiss private company that will conduct monitoring of customs at crossing points leading to breakaway regions, previously controlled by Russians and separatist de facto officials. Georgia already signed contact in Dec. Transit deal would clear way for launch of transit trade through South Ossetia, based on 2011 Customs Agreement; would represent first serious breakthrough in Georgia-Russia relations since 2008 war and Russia’s recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia; and potentially open opportunities for more communication through de facto regions, currently largely dependent on Russia.

Street protests erupted in de facto republic Abkhazia 3 Jan following 25 Dec release from prison of ethnic Georgian former guerrilla leader from 1990s conflict, provoking political crisis. Abkhaz de facto president said he decided to pardon him as part of continued prisoner exchange with Tbilisi, but opposition called for special investigation; parliamentary commission started work on 3 Jan. Protests culminated 5 Jan with thousands refusing to leave streets; president agreed to hand case to de facto Constitutional Court, which would decide whether pardon violated local laws. Protesters dispersed only when opposition leaders promised to push for president’s resignation. Both opposition and de facto president spent subsequent fortnight at rallies and meetings to mobilise supporters. In mountainous Sunni Muslim-majority region Pankisi, special services late Dec started to conduct raids on houses; six young men arrested and sent to pre-trial detention for alleged support to Islamic State (ISIS). One suspect died from injuries during raid, prompting local protests and demand for investigation. Govt said it had proof a local group had direct links to Akhmed Chatayev, ISIS commander responsible for 2016 Istanbul airport attack, who died in late Nov police operation in Tbilisi. Tbilisi court 5 Jan sentenced former President Saakashvili in absentia to three years’ prison for abusing power in pardoning former interior ministry officials. De facto South Ossetia President Anatoly Bibilov 5 Jan visited Ukraine’s separatist Donbas region, reportedly signed two agreements on financial and military cooperation with separatist leadership; also visited Bosnia’s secessionist Serb-controlled Republika Srpska entity (see Bosnia). Foreign ministers of de facto Abkhazia and South Ossetia late Jan attended 50 year independence celebration of Nauru, only Pacific nation that recognised independence of Georgia’s breakaway regions.

Parliament 21 Dec officially endorsed new cabinet, despite heated debates in parliament and calls from opposition for more robust reforms and functional governance. Tbilisi 19 Dec announced that it signed contract with Swiss company to start implementing cargo monitoring of trade through breakaway regions, but only if Russia agrees to sign document. Georgian PM Kvirikashvili 19 Dec proposed to elevate level of participants in Geneva talks, main negotiation platform that allows Georgian and Russian sides to discuss security and humanitarian issues since 2008 war; said he and his foreign minister would be ready to take part in regular talks. Prominent Abkhaz war veteran Pavel Ardzinba shot dead with his driver 13 Dec; motives unclear. Abkhazia de facto parliament 28 Dec failed in its no confidence vote in current de facto PM.