CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

European Parliament 15 Nov passed resolution praising reforms in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, said they could be considered for membership in future. EU Eastern Partnership Summit issued declaration saying summit participants “acknowledge the European aspirations” of partners concerned, as stated in Association Agreements. U.S. 17 Nov approved sale of Javelin anti-tank systems to Georgia. Ruling Georgian Dream party secured five out of six municipalities in 12 Nov run-off vote for local elections, having secured majority of seats in Oct first round. Authorities in Tbilisi 22 Nov conducted large-scale special operation to arrest individuals suspected of links to foreign terrorist groups: three gunmen died, one later identified by authorities as high-level Chechen Islamic State (ISIS) commander suspected of involvement in June 2016 attack on Istanbul airport in Turkey; one soldier died from injuries. President of Pacific island state Nauru, which has recognised breakaway republics, visited Abkhazia 12 Nov, next day met de facto South Ossetian leader in Moscow; Georgia condemned visit. De facto South Ossetia 26 Nov released one Georgian prisoner in exchange for one Abkhaz prisoner released from Georgian prison.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Baku-Akhalkalaki-Kars railway 30 Oct officially launched in Baku; railway connects Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey to Europe (see Azerbaijan). Ruling Georgian Dream (GD) consolidated power securing comfortable majorities in all main regions in 21 Oct local elections; opposition UNM party 24 Oct said it would boycott run-offs, scheduled in five districts and second largest city Kutaisi before 15 Nov. OSCE said “fundamental freedoms were generally respected” and “candidates were able to campaign freely”, but also questioned ruling party’s predominance in electoral process. Former European footballer Kakha Kaladze, energy minister for GD govt who also reportedly secured control of security services and some financial sectors, became Tbilisi mayor with over 51% of vote. Following Russia’s example, South Ossetia’s de facto justice ministry banned Jehovah’s Witnesses (estimated to number around 1,000), declaring them extremist.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Parliament 26 Sept adopted controversial amendments to constitution, after opposition parties and president united to present their own amendments, some of which ruling party accepted 22 Sept, including timing for transfer to fully proportional parliamentary system. Primary schools in breakaway republic South Ossetia (SO) reportedly using exclusively Russian for years 1-4 since start of new school year. SO de facto leadership said change was to help local Georgian population, which frequently complains about discrimination, to finally define their future – whether within SO or moving to Georgia. Georgia early Sept hosted military exercises with U.S. and several regional countries (excluding Armenia).

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Visiting Tbilisi 1 Aug, U.S. VP Pence pledged U.S. support for Georgia’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders”, promised U.S. will support Georgia’s NATO ambitions, “strongly condemns Russia’s occupation”. Russian President Putin, visiting breakaway republic Abkhazia on 8 Aug anniversary of start of Russia-Georgia 2008 war, said “We have a very special relationship with Abkhazia: we provide a reliable guarantee of security and independence of Abkhazia”, which he said would continue in future. Russia’s deputy interior minister 17 Aug visited Abkhazia for more detailed talks about planned joint police centre. Two Russian tourists killed and scores injured in explosion of major weapons depot in Abkhazia 2 Aug, further damaging region’s tourism industry. South Ossetia de facto prosecutor launched investigation into ethnic Georgian civil activist Tamara Mearakishvili, detaining her mid-Aug and accusing her of “defaming” local member of ruling political party. Case broadly seen as attempt by local authorities to silence critical voices; Mearakishvili reportedly kidnapped in June and spent night at local KGB office.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Amid ongoing concerns about continued borderisation along South Ossetian administrative boundary line (ABL) with rest of Georgia, group of Georgians demonstrated near ABL 9 and 14 July after Russian forces reportedly moved “border signs” further into Georgian territory in June near Bershueti village, Gori municipality. Group of Georgians patrolling near village during daytime since 25 July “to prevent new arrests” of Georgian citizens by Russian forces. Criminal incidents against Russian tourists in Abkhazia, including fatal stabbing, raised questions in Abkhazia and Russia about ability of local law-enforcement agencies to sustain order and seek accountability. Ukrainian President Poroshenko visited Georgia 17-19 July; presidents signed agreement pledging to work together on goals including EU and NATO accession. Poroshenko 26 July revoked former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili’s Ukrainian citizenship; Saakashvili lost his Georgian passport in 2015 when he took Ukrainian citizenship to take up governor post there. U.S. VP Pence 31 July visited Georgia to demonstrate continued support, as Georgia began hosting joint military exercise involving troops from U.S., UK, Germany and several neighbouring states.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Tbilisi angered after de facto Abkhaz leadership 31 May dropped charges against suspect in May 2016 murder in which ethnic Georgian was shot dead near administrative boundary line (ABL); Tbilisi court had already convicted suspect in absentia. Some observers warn Tbilisi may now take tougher stance on many conflict-related issues, including humanitarian problems in areas adjacent to ABL. Several criminal incidents in Abkhazia reinforced concerns over lack of professional law enforcement. Driver of de facto Abkhaz presidential cortege accused of raping thirteen-year-old girl 11 June; victim’s older sister later found shot dead. South Ossetia de facto KGB representatives 9 June briefly detained ethnic Georgian activist Tamara Mearakishvili while she was travelling to Tbilisi, raising concern over campaign by de facto intelligence officials against civil society representatives. Tensions continued over new Georgian constitution, criticised by opposition groups and civil society; parliament 23 June adopted draft amendments in second reading, in session boycotted by opposition. Changes include move from mixed to proportional electoral system selection of president by parliament instead of through direct election. Azerbaijani journalist Afqan Mukhtarli allegedly kidnapped in central Tbilisi 29 May and forcibly returned to Azerbaijan where he was arrested, prompting condemnation in Georgia and from U.S., EU (see Azerbaijan).

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

De facto Abkhazia 18 May signed controversial agreement on police cooperation with Russia, establishing new body with around dozen Russian law-enforcement officials in de facto republic on permanent basis to cooperate with and in some cases supervise work of Abkhaz colleagues: head and deputy to be jointly appointed by Russia and de facto Abkhazia. Responding to widespread criticism of agreement in Abkhazia, police officials argued they would not have to delegate any responsibilities to Russia, deal would help fight organised crime and improve quality of investigations. Political party representatives attended sometimes heated meetings across country during month to debate constitutional amendments proposed by ruling Georgian Dream party, including abolishment of direct vote in election of president and changes to electoral system; changes strongly opposed by all opposition parties, president and most civil society. Turkish PM and seven ministers 24 May visited Tbilisi to discuss closer bilateral cooperation. Georgian, Azerbaijani and Turkish defence ministers met in Tbilisi 23 May to discuss joint military exercises and closer security cooperation. Amnesty International 28 May called on govt not to extradite former manager of Turkish school in Georgia aligned with Gülen movement.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Breakaway republic South Ossetia (SO) 9 April elected new de facto President Anatoliy Bibilov, who campaigned for closer links with Russia, with 54.8% of vote; incumbent Leonid Tibilov, supported by Moscow, gained only 33.7%. In parallel vote 80% agreed to add “State of Alania” to previous official name “Republic of South Ossetia”. Local observers and activists said elections were first providing free choice to people since Russia’s recognition of SO in 2008, including with opposition rallies and televised debates. Tbilisi, U.S. and EU said vote illegitimate; Kremlin envoy attended Bibilov’s inauguration 21 April. Bibilov 12 April said he would promote local citizens to main govt offices, currently occupied by Russians. Russian FM Lavrov 18-19 April visited breakaway republic Abkhazia to open new “embassy” and meet with de facto president. Lavrov said his country favoured opening of trade routes with Georgia through Abkhazia; Abkhaz de facto leadership reiterated readiness to promote transit, providing Georgia recognises Abkhaz authority in issue. Tbilisi called Lavrov’s visit violation of Georgian sovereignty, expressed deep disappointment in light of two countries’ regular talks, moves to reestablish cooperation. Parliament constitution commission 22 April finalised its work on constitution project. Proposed amendments, which provoked protest from opposition, President Margvelashvili and civil society, include president being elected by delegates rather than by direct vote, and shift to proportional electoral system.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Breakaway republic Abkhazia held election for 35-seat de facto parliament in two rounds 12 and 26 March, in vote criticised by Tbilisi, EU and U.S. as illegal. Victors included former leader Aleksandr Ankvab; several govt figures lost seats, one seat still to be decided in repeat elections. During campaign one candidate reportedly shot and another had car set on fire; perpetrators unknown. Ahead of 9 April de facto presidential election in breakaway republic South Ossetia (SO), former SO leader Eduard Kokoity failed to receive registration, prompting hundreds of protesters to march in his support in Tskhinvali; Kokoity 30 March announced he would cease street rallies and support Anatoliy Bibilov candidacy. Russian President Putin 14 March gave approval for agreement allowing some SO troops to serve with Russian armed forces. Local civil society organisations and activists protested 2 March court-ordered transfer of popular independent Rustavi-2 TV channel to new owners loyal to current govt. Crisis resolved after unprecedented urgent ruling of European Court of Human Rights next day to suspend enforcement of court order and investigate case. EU visa-liberalisation deal for Georgia entered into force 28 March. UN Human Rights Council 17 March adopted resolution on Georgia demanding immediate access to Abkhazia and SO for UN rights chief and other international and regional human rights mechanisms. UNSC 29 March discussed situation in Abkhazia and SO. During 39th round of Geneva international discussions 29 March, participants continued talks over non-use of force agreement and humanitarian problems in conflict regions; next round scheduled June.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

European Parliament 2 Feb voted to grant visa-free travel for Georgian citizens to EU, expected to enter into force later March after it was approved by EU Council 27 Feb. Residents of conflict regions can make use of visa free travel provided they apply for Georgian passports. Georgia and Russia 7 Feb discussed prospects for trade through Abkhazia and South Ossetia, with intention to implement 2011 agreement signed before Georgia gave Russia green light to join WTO. Former Abkhaz leader Alexander Ankvab returned to Abkhazia 13 Feb after two years of absence to run as candidate in de facto parliamentary elections 12 March. Perceived Russian interference ahead of April de facto presidential election in breakaway republic South Ossetia, including reported pressure from Russian envoy on local elections commission to issue public statement against former leader Eduard Kokoity, prompted anger among residents. De facto President Tibilov 6 Feb signed decree scheduling referendum to change name of entity to “Republic of South Ossetia – the State of Alania”. Georgian FM Mikheil Janelidze met U.S. counterpart Rex Tillerson in Washington DC 10 Feb, reported Tillerson expressed “full support” for Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

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