CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Breakaway Abkhazia republic’s de facto parliament 29 Dec adopted amendment to law on foreign citizens softening rules for seekers of residency permit: will allow local ethnic Georgians to receive local documents solidifying their right to live and work in Abkhazia, does not allow them to run or vote in de facto elections. Group of ethnic Georgians 25 Jan staged rare public protest against decision of Abkhaz de facto govt to close two crossing points in southern section of administrative boundary line (ABL). Former de facto President Aleksandr Ankvab, exiled in Moscow since 2014, late Jan succeeded in registering to run in March legislative poll. Georgia 10 Jan called on UNESCO to send experts to Abkhazia following early Jan reports of destruction of church and cemetery in central Abkhazia during preparations for regular joint Russia-Abkhazia military training. In breakaway republic South Ossetia campaigning began ahead of 9 April de facto presidential election. In Tbilisi 21 members of former ruling party United National Movement (UNM) 12 Jan announced they were forming new political movement which will not cooperate with former Georgian President Saakashvili: move leaves UNM with only six MPs in parliament.
Parliament 15 Dec launched commission to review constitution and limit powers of President and PM; President announced he would boycott commission. De facto Abkhaz leadership mid-Dec secured political agreement with opposition following year-long standoff and early Dec escalation. De facto Abkhazia President Raul Khajimba 1 Dec met with Russian President Putin in Moscow; next day Abkhaz opposition leader Aslan Bzhania, who had been leading calls for Khajimba to step down by 15 Dec, briefly detained and questioned for two days by Russian police. Amid increased tensions, opposition supporters gathered for protests 15 Dec, disbanding after govt offered concessions to opposition including several govt positions in election commission, prosecutor office, constitutional court and cabinet. Georgian court 28 Dec sentenced de facto Abkhaz border guard (currently under house arrest in Abkhazia) to twelve years’ prison for killing ethnic Georgian in May 2016.
Recently-elected Parliament 27 Nov voted new govt into office: PM Kvirikashvili kept his seat along with thirteen out of eighteen ministers, including Defence, Interior, Foreign Affairs and Reconciliation with breakaway regions. Russian President Putin 21 Nov signed into law agreement with breakaway Abkhazia allowing for Russia to develop military base in de facto republic and giving Russian defence ministry control over force in war time; U.S. strongly criticised deal, said it “does not constitute a valid international agreement”. De facto President of South Ossetia Leonid Tibilov 25 Nov stated he would run for presidential election scheduled for April 2017.
Ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party secured 48.6% of votes in 8 Oct parliamentary election first round, gaining 67 of 150 seats; in second round voting 30 Oct won 48 more seats, to give total of 115; opposition United National Movement (UNM) came second with 27 seats. Opposition parties accused govt of rigging vote; electoral commission denied, OSCE assessed voting positively, despite some incidents of violence and allegations of unlawful campaigning in first round. Isolated incidents of pre-election violence reported, including two men injured by gunshots during campaign speech in Gori 2 Oct, and 4 Oct car explosion targeting opposition United National Movement (UNM) MP Givi Targamadze in Tbilisi, no casualties recorded.
Tbilisi strongly condemned holding of elections for Russian State Duma in breakaway regions South Ossetia and Abkhazia 18 Sept, including in address to UNGA by PM Kvirikashvili. European Parliament’s Civil Liberties committee 5 Sept approved visa liberalisation regime for Georgia, paving way for future vote on visa liberalisation by EU ministers. De facto Abkhazia leadership reshuffled early Sept; de facto FM resigned 20 Sept.
EU-Georgia association agreement entered into force 1 July. U.S. and Georgia 6 July signed agreement on Deepening the Defense and Security Partnership, however NATO summit concluded 9 July with no offer of formal relationship with Georgia. European Commissioner Hahn 14 July promised visa-free EU travel for Georgians by October. In breakaway Abkhazia republic, over 1,000 opposition protesters 5 July attempted to storm de facto interior ministry to demand resignation of top police official and Minister Leonid Dzapshba, clashing with police. De facto president next day suspended Dzapshba, denied opposition demand to postpone 10 July referendum on early presidential elections. Referendum declared invalid after only 1.23% of voters participated, following calls first by de facto govt and later also those who initiated referendum to boycott poll. Moscow 11 July approved agreement on uniting Abkhaz and Russian armed forces within framework of Nov 2014 alliance and strategic partnership.
EU 1 June decided to postpone decision on granting visa-free travel to Georgian citizens, despite fact that country has fulfilled requirements for visa liberalisation, prompting expressions of disappointment within Georgia.
U.S., Georgia and UK conducted joint live-fire training exercise in Georgia 11-26 May, including with U.S. tanks and armoured personnel carriers. Tbilisi said main goal is to improve cooperation with NATO; Russia called drills provocative. Defence minister said drills marked “huge step” toward NATO membership. Following drills, Georgia was invited to join NATO Response Force. Tbilisi 20 May reported an ethnic Georgian man shot dead by Abkhaz de facto border guards on Georgian-controlled side of the administrative boundary with breakaway Abkhazia region. Breakaway South Ossetia region’s de facto president and parliament speaker 26 May announced “referendum” on joining Russia to be postponed until after 2017 presidential election.
After meeting with Russian President Putin 4 April, de facto leader of South Ossetia Leonid Tibilov declared his intention to hold proposed “referendum” on joining Russia; vote reportedly scheduled for July. Putin 14 April said Russia “cannot oppose” desire of South Ossetian people to hold referendum.
Russian Deputy FM mid-month said Moscow disliked increasing anti-Russian rhetoric in Tbilisi, Kremlin’s patience “has limits”. Commander of NATO Supreme Allied Command Europe Gen Philip Breedlove during late-March visit warned of Russia’s “aggressive game in world politics” and called for Georgia to further enhance partnership with NATO and U.S.. Thousands joined protests 6 March against govt plan to purchase natural gas from Russian-owned Gazprom.
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