CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

Belgrade and Pristina negotiators met 30 August in Vienna for new round of status talks; both stipulated series of red lines ahead of meeting. PM Ceku threatened to declare independence if talks inconclusive. EU, Russian and U.S. mediators Wolfgang Ischinger, Alexander Botsan- Kharchenko and Frank Wisner visited Belgrade and Pristina 10-11 August; troika to report to UNSG Ban Ki-moon by 10 December, but disagree on whether date should be deadline for resolving status. EU anti-partition stance undermined by Ischinger and Dutch FM Verhagen statements suggesting possibility if sides agreed. Ischinger later retreated; Kosovar negotiators threatened to leave talks if option raised. UNMIK set assembly, municipal and mayoral elections for 17 November. Belgrade spokesman said return of 1,000 Serb security personnel to Kosovo, following Serbian National Council of Northern Kosovo request to Belgrade, would be timely 16 August. Belgrade alleged NATO seeking Kosovo as “satellite state”. Ethnic Serb girl raped by 3 unknown assailants 20 August in second such attack in Gracanica this year.

Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

International deadlock over status continued as 1-2 July U.S.-Russia summit in Kennebunkport produced no agreement. Moscow rejected watered-down U.S. and EU draft resolution; latter suspended UNSC consultations 20 July. U.S. official told BBC 16 July U.S. to recognize Kosovo within 2007, but Sec. State Rice, meeting Pristina’s Unity Team 23 July, said U.S. to recognize after Contact Group-sponsored talks process. Contact Group met 25 July in Vienna to discuss plans for new round of Belgrade-Pristina talks to last at least 4 months: decided U.S., EU and Russia should mediate, but no start date, deadline or agenda agreed. Brussels appointed German diplomat Wolfgang Ischinger EU mediator. UNSG Ban Ki-moon warned against further delays. UNMIK head Joachim Rucker called for clear roadmap on status; local and general elections now due November. Demands grew in Pristina for independence date; Unity Team split between PM Ceku and opposition politician Surroi, who want to set date, and President Sejdiu and opposition leader Thaci, content to wait for U.S. and EU decision. Remarks by French FM Kouchner, later corrected, caused Pristina to fear West may relax opposition to partition. Bus carrying villagers of Albanian enclave north of Mitrovica set off grenade 27 July.

Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

International deadlock over Kosovo status continued as U.S. and European attempts to overcome Russian opposition to independence failed: Presidents Bush and Putin to meet 1-2 July. At 6-8 June G8 Summit Moscow rejected French proposal of 6-month delay, opposing automatic independence provision if further Pristina-Belgrade talks fail. Contact Group minus Russia met in Paris 12 June; agreed on need for timely UNSC resolution. EU FMs suggested 21 June new Pristina-Belgrade negotiations in Brussels during 4-6 month delay; still hopeful of UNSC resolution. Bush explicitly supported independence during 10 June visit to Albania; hinted unilateral recognition as possible last resort. In Kosovo, majority Albanians began debate over unilateral moves and possible pre-status 2007 parliamentary elections. Tsar Lazar Guard volunteers bussed under heavy Kosovo police control to Gazimestan monument near Pristina for 28 June Battle of Kosovo commemoration; passed peacefully. Vetevendosje movement held 30 June protest without incident; leader Albin Kurti re-detained after breaching house arrest terms.

Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

International community remained divided over UNSC resolution on final status; Russia rejected U.S.- and EU-backed draft resolution, insisting status decision must be acceptable to Belgrade. U.S. Sec. State Rice’s mid-May visit to Moscow and 18-19 May EU-Russia summit failed to resolve differences. NATO warned further delay on status could trigger violence in province. Serbian police arrested nationalists in Krusevac protesting against possible Kosovo independence 5 May.

Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

U.S. Under Sec. State Burns said 17 April U.S. will support Kosovo independence declaration after UNSC enabling resolution. U.S. mooted June deadline for resolution, yet further delay likely as Russia stepped up rhetoric against Ahtisaari plan and member state objections prevented forceful EU advocacy of supervised independence. UN Envoy Ahtisaari presented proposals in closed UNSC session. Amid major disagreements, Council sent fact-finding mission to Belgrade and Kosovo 25-28 April. To mark visit, displaced Kosovar Serbs protested on Serbian side of Kosovo boundary 26 April. Kosovo Assembly approved Ahtisaari plan 2 April. Kosovo Unity team signed declaration, on U.S. urging, at civil society-initiated 13-15 April meeting in Pocantico in U.S., pledging cooperation with international community to create multi-ethnic state. Preliminary conclusions of international investigation into February protestor deaths defined killings as criminal, focused on role of Romanian police contingent but did not name specific officers.

Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

UN special envoy Martti Ahtisaari hosted final round of unproductive status talks in Vienna 10 March after revising his settlement proposal 7 March, easing its acceptance by Kosovo Albanians but further dissatisfying Belgrade, which rejected it. Proposal forwarded to New York with additional report recommending supervised independence. UNSG Ban Ki-moon endorsed and sent both to UNSC members 26 March. U.S., EU and NATO indicated support for plan. Russia called for further talks and proposed review of implementation of Resolution 1244 before UNSC consideration of Ahtisaari plan. 75 Romanians serving in UN police force left Kosovo despite ongoing investigation into several officers’ conduct during 10 February clash with Vetevendosje movement protestors that left 2 dead. 3 and 31 March Vetevendosje protests passed without violence. Several small explosions in Bosnjacka Mahala of Mitrovica; reports of 30 March mortar grenade explosion near Decani monastery being investigated. Attempt by 150 enclave Serb delegates to form “Serb national assembly” broken up by Belgrade loyalists in Gracanica 4 March. AAK party leader and former PM Haradinaj went on trial in Hague on war crime charges 5 March.

Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

Situation fragile since 2 protestors killed by UN police 10 February. UN Envoy Ahtisaari presented status plans to Belgrade and Pristina 2 February: framework for creation of Kosovo’s state, though without mention of “independence”. Serbian parliament rejected plan (see Serbia, below); Serb protests held in north Mitrovica, Strpce, Gracanica, Belgrade. Kosovo Albanian leaders welcomed plan, with reservations. Public mood soured after 10 February, with objections to plan rising over Kosovo Protection Corps “disbandment”, powers of Serb-majority municipalities, Serb Orthodox church protection zones and “Bosnia-like” international powers. In 10 February Pristina protest by Self-Determination movement. UN police killed 2, wounded dozens, with rubber bullets. Kosovo Interior Minister Fatmir Rexhepi resigned and UN police chief Stephen Curtis asked to step down over police conduct. Bomb attack on UN vehicles 19 February. Belgrade and Pristina delegations began round of talks on Ahtisaari plan in Vienna 21 February; Ahtisaari to present final draft to UN possibly end of March. Russia reiterated would not support imposed solution.

Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

UN envoy Ahtisaari expected to recommend heavily qualified independence in status settlement proposal without explicit use of the word “independence”. Proposal discussed behind closed doors with Contact Group 26 January and to be presented to Belgrade and Pristina 2 February. Kosovar Albanians mostly reassured by available news of confidential document, but worried by prospect of Kosovo Serb “autonomy”; war veterans and “Self Determination” movement announced Pristina protest against proposal for 10 February. Concern that Russia may veto or prevent Security Council consideration of status until government formed in Belgrade, where coalition talks could last until May, or fail altogether. Further Belgrade-Pristina talks to be called in February. President Tadic expected to meet Ahtisaari in Belgrade; PM Kostunica refusing until new Serbian government formed. In Kosovo, co-governing LDK weakened by defection of Nexhat Daci to found new LD party 12 January. Kosovo police service officer shot dead near Serb village Babin Most 3 January; suspect escaped to Belgrade where received by PM Kostunica, who denounced alleged KPS brutality.

Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

Largest political force, Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), bitterly divided after acrimonious convention saw violence between supporters of Nexhat Daci and President Sejdiu. Sejdiu elected leader with 189 votes against 160, but claim by Sejdiu supporter's that his general council also approved challenged by Daci camp. President Sejdiu, in keeping with rules on presidency, suspended his party leadership 28 December; unclear who will succeed. Small- scale incidents in west, centre and south: masked gunmen set up road checkpoint in Gjakova region 4 December, railway serving train transporting Kosovo Serbs blown up near Vushtrri 8 December, bus carrying Serbs stoned near Ferizaj 9 December. 3 men, including senior adviser to Labour Ministry Naim Bazaj arrested after discovery of large arms cache in Drenica 20 December. Serbia’s Kosovo coordinator Sanda Raskovic-Ivic maintained UN special envoy Martti Ahtisaari’s draft solution should be followed by further negotiations. UN Security Council 13 December meeting saw UN SRSG Rucker appeal for no further delay on status; Russia criticised him for exceeding his mandate.

Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

UN Special Envoy Martti Ahtisaari announced would delay his status proposals until after 21 January Serbian parliamentary elections. Fears of significant further delay to final status process, due to Russian insistence that Ahtisaari package should serve as basis for further Pristina-Belgrade negotiations, and lukewarm engagement of some other Contact Group and EU members. Kosovo Albanians met announcement with calm, but PM Ceku and co-governing AAK party began broaching idea of unilateral independence declaration if no decision in early 2007. “Self-Determination” demonstration targeted provisional government and UN mission with stones, paint bombs 28 November. In east Kosovo, local Albanian leaders angry Pristina-Belgrade negotiations conceded formation of several new Serb-majority municipalities; arguing blow to integration efforts, and price exacted for ethnic cleansing by other Kosovo regions. Serb shot in head in south-eastern Letnica village 9 November; grenade exploded in empty Serb school classroom, eastern Ropotovo village, 21 November.

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