CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

After Kosovo police arrested two UN officials for allegedly impeding security operations in 28 May raid in ethnic Serb-dominated part of Mitrovica in north, head of UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), Zahir Tanin, 10 June told UN Security Council that Kosovo police had violated UN officials’ immunity, and that UN would continue to investigate matter. Constitutional court 27 June ruled that negotiating team, which parliament tasked with leading negotiations in EU-led dialogue with Serbia, was unconstitutional, citing overlap with existing institutions. U.S. continued to urge govt to end custom tariffs on Serbian imports, with U.S. Dep Assistant Sec State 10 June calling them “an obstacle” to normalising relations between Kosovo and Serbia. Serbian President Vučić tried to shore up international support for talks with Kosovo; in letter to U.S. President Trump 14 June urged Washington to pressure Kosovo to lift its tariffs in order to advance “a compromise” solution.

Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

Tensions within Kosovo and with Serbia spiked after police 28 May conducted raid on organised crime suspects in ethnic Serb-dominated part of Mitrovica in north, detaining more than two dozen people including local police, and prompting Serbia to put its army on alert. Two UN officials among those arrested during raid, including Russian national who was released same day and later declared persona non grata; UN expressed “great concern”. Belgrade accused Pristina of aiming to intimidate and provoke panic; President Vučić put Serbian army on “combat alert” near border to protect Serbs, while Russia called Kosovo’s actions “provocation”. Kosovo police reported five officers and six civilians injured as police attempted to break through barricade constructed by local Serbs to obstruct operation. Hundreds of Serbs protested in north Mitrovica against raids 29 May. UN and EU called for calm. Amid tensions, Pristina 30 May banned Serbian PM for life from entering Kosovo due to “racist comments toward Albanians” previous day. Vučić 27 May told Serbian parliament that Serbia has lost control of Kosovo and suggested “a possible compromise solution in a referendum”.  Snap local elections in four Serb-majority municipalities in northern Kosovo 19 May won by Srpska Lista, the only Serb party contesting polls, reportedly gaining more than 90% of vote, with voter turnout 42%; Western embassies expressed concern over “restricted electoral competition” and reports of “intimidation”. U.S. embassy 14 May expressed concern over series of recent controversial govt appointments of allegedly unqualified senior officials “including individuals convicted of war crimes”. Parliament 16 May approved resolution condemning crimes committed by Serbian forces during 1998-99 war, and calling on govt to criminalise denial of genocide in Kosovo.

Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

Tensions increased around early elections in Serb-majority municipalities in May, while attempt to relaunch stalled normalisation dialogue with Serbia failed. President Thaçi 8 April announced early local elections 19 May in four Serb-majority municipalities in north, where mayors resigned Nov 2018 in protest at govt’s introduction of 100% tariff on Serbian imports. Despite calling early polls a “provocation”, main Serb party Srpska Lista 10 April said it would participate in polls. Opposition Vetëvendosje party 23-24 April tried to block Central Election Commission (CEC)’s certification of Srpska Lista candidates, saying that three of them had resigned as mayors in Nov in breach of constitution, and were now running again in same municipalities. PM Haradinaj 9 April announced he had dismissed Kosovo Serb Minister of Local Govt Administration for using hate speech after he described ethnic Albanians as terrorists and accused them of fabricating crimes against them in 1998-99 war; govt 11 April moved to criminalise denial of crimes committed by Serbian forces during war. Western Balkans Summit in Berlin 29 April, aimed at relaunching stalled EU-facilitated Kosovo-Serbia normalisation dialogue, ended without agreement on restarting negotiations; next meeting planned for early July in Paris; President Thaçi called for U.S. to be included in dialogue.  Media watchdog NGO Reporters Without Borders’ 2019 World Press Freedom Index noted improvement in media freedom in country. Court ordered arrest of four out of 110 citizens (including 32 women and 74 children) returning from Syria 19 April suspected of involvement in terrorism, and placed ten women under house arrest.

Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

U.S. and EU continued calls on Pristina to revoke 100% customs tariff on imports from Serbia, and for the two countries to resume normalisation talks; visiting U.S. envoy David Hale early month said U.S. and its Western allies would support any accord they reached, and called for end to “mutual provocations”. Parliament 7 March adopted eleven-point platform for negotiations with Serbia, stipulating need mutual recognition between countries and maintenance of current borders. Serbian President Vučić 8 March condemned platform, saying it was not compatible with the dialogue. EU Parliament 28 March voted again in favour of granting Kosovo citizens visa-free travel to bloc.

Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

Govt faced growing pressure from U.S. and EU to withdraw its 100% tariff on Serbian imports that has amplified tensions with Serbia. Senior U.S. State Department officials 12 Feb sent letter to govt warning that its position was putting bilateral relations at risk, and confirmed cancellation of planned visit by U.S. National Guard commander; PM Haradinaj reiterated that Kosovo would only scrap tariff once Serbia recognises Kosovo’s independence. U.S. also criticised govt for hiring newly-released convicted war criminal as adviser to Haradinaj. President Thaçi continued to discuss “correction” of border with Serbia in context of ongoing normalisation dialogue with Serbia, and in 14 Feb interview said he saw “good momentum” in dialogue. Kosovo’s new negotiating team for dialogue 15 Feb presented its negotiating platform to parliamentary speaker to be put to vote, including demand that Belgrade pledges to recognise Kosovo and agree on new tribunal for wartime crimes, and principle that Kosovo’s territory will not be altered. Kosovo marked eleven year anniversary of its declaration of independence 17 Feb with parade by its new Kosovo Security Force.

Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

International community increased pressure on govt to revoke controversial 100% customs tariff imposed on Serbian and Bosnian goods in Nov 2018 amid divisions on issue within Kosovo between President Thaçi, who wants to lift tariffs in return for progress on EU-facilitated normalisation talks with Serbia, and PM Haradinaj, who conditioned lifting of tariff on Serbian recognition of Kosovo, but faces opposition from his ruling coalition partner party. EU foreign policy chief Mogherini called for lifting of tariff in 8 Jan meeting with Kosovo’s new negotiating team for normalisation dialogue, while U.S. embassy 25 Jan issued statement calling for immediate suspension of tariff. Haradinaj 28 Jan laid out further conditions for revoking tariff including international conference backed by EU and U.S. to work out final agreement with Serbia, rejecting any redrawing of borders; and that any association of Serb municipalities in Kosovo should have no executive powers. Serbian President Vučić in letter to U.S. President Trump 31 Jan said Serbia would resume normalisation dialogue only after Kosovo revokes tariff. Russian President Putin 17 Jan criticised Kosovo’s move to form national army during visit to Serbia, also criticised role of Western countries in Balkans. New Kosovo Specialist Chambers, which was created in 2015, 14 Jan began work in The Hague, to try Kosovo war crimes committed 1998-2000.

Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

Tensions with Serbia spiked over Kosovo parliament’s 14 Dec approval of legislation transforming Kosovo Security Force (KSF) into a regular army, expanding its competences and doubling its size to 5,000. Kosovo Serb MPs boycotted session, said army would have no mandate in Serb-majority North Kosovo and that they would challenge vote at Constitutional Court. Serbian President Vučić called army “illegal”, said Pristina had “jeopardized peace and security”. NATO earlier called on Kosovo not to proceed with vote; NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg 17 Dec announced his “regret” over “ill-timed” decision, noting NATO would have to re-examine its engagement with KSF. EU and UN also expressed concern; Russia condemned move, while U.S. said it was “Kosovo’s sovereign right”. Serbia called urgent session of UN Security Council 17 Dec, at which Vučić called on UN to “curb” and “tame” Kosovo and take greater role in normalisation of relations. Tensions also continued over 100% customs tariffs Kosovo imposed in Nov, with Kosovo Serb MPs occupying parliament early Dec in protest. PM Haradinaj and FM Pacolli attended annual EU-Kosovo Stabilisation and Association Council in Brussels 17 Dec, where reportedly tense meeting saw discussions of tariff increase, and Kosovo expressed frustration over delays in EU visa liberalisation. EU foreign policy chief Mogherini convened meeting of five Western Balkan leaders 19 Dec, during which they expressed “strongest support” for Kosovo and Serbia normalising relations, while U.S. President Trump wrote to Thaçi and Vučić mid-month calling for them to reach “historic accord”. Pristina 28 Dec announced extension of 100% customs tariff on imports from Serbia and Bosnia to include internationally-branded goods; EU reiterated its condemnation of tariffs, while Vučić said there would be no normalisation talks until tariffs are withdrawn. Thaçi 26 Dec said “land swap never will be negotiated” as part of normalisation agreement.

Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

Tensions increased with Serbia and within Kosovo after govt imposed customs tariff on Serbian imports. PM Haradinaj 6 Nov announced new 10% customs tariff on imports from Bosnia and Serbia, citing their “negative behaviour” including lack of recognition, alleged threats from Serbia against members of Kosovo Security Force members, and Bosnia blocking goods from Kosovo. Serbia and Bosnia, both with large trade surpluses with Kosovo, criticised move, which Belgrade said undermined EU-facilitated dialogue. Kosovo and Serbian leaders exchanged angry remarks after latest round of EU-mediated talks 8 Nov (first since July); Serbian President Vucic said Kosovo must lift tariff before dialogue can proceed, and said move by Pristina to build army violated earlier agreements. Pristina 21 Nov raised customs tariff to 100% to protect country’s “vital interest” in response to alleged “aggressive campaign” by Belgrade, which it claimed had influenced decision by international police agency Interpol previous day to again reject Kosovo’s membership. EU and U.S. called on Kosovo to lift tariff, which EU foreign policy chief Mogherini warned is “clear violation” of regional trade agreement Cefta “and the spirit of the Stabilisation and Association Agreement between the EU and Kosovo”; Haradinaj 29 Nov said tariff on Serbian imports would remain until Serbia recognises Kosovo’s independence and stops blocking its membership of international organisations. Mayors of four Serb majority municipalities in northern Kosovo resigned 27 Nov in protest at tariff hike and said their municipalities would end communication with Kosovo govt institutions; also complained of “brutal” police operation 23 Nov arresting three Kosovo Serbs allegedly linked to Jan 2018 murder of Kosovo Serb politician Oliver Ivanovic. Hundreds of Kosovo Serbs rallied in Mitrovica same day. In media interview 9 Nov President Thaci said any agreement in dialogue with Serbia would not involve redrawing borders along ethnic lines; said “armed forces of Kosovo will be created”.

Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

Tensions grew with Serbia over moves in legislature to transform Kosovo Security Force (KSF) into a national army. Parliament 18 Oct approved three draft laws on defence ministry and KSF, expanding latter’s size and competences by transforming it into an organisation to protect Kosovo’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Kosovo Serb representatives boycotted vote. Earlier, NATO said “any initiatives regarding the mandate of the [KSF] should be fully consulted with all communities in Kosovo and with NATO Allies”. Belgrade said transformation of KSF into a regular army is a “threat to peace” that would make Serbia’s position “extremely difficult”, and said it would talk to NATO-led peacekeeping force in Kosovo. After outgoing U.S. ambassador to UN called for termination of United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), Serbian President Vucic 17 Oct said combination of UNMIK departure and formation of Kosovo army would leave Serbia no choice but to “protect” Kosovo’s Serbs. Amid ongoing division within Pristina govt over President Thaci’s proposal for “border correction” as part of EU-facilitated dialogue with Serbia, Thaci 11 Oct claimed French President Macron expressed his support for his proposal.

Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

Talk of possible border adjustment between Kosovo and Serbia as part of EU-facilitated normalisation dialogue continued to prompt strong opposition within Kosovo and internationally, while tensions rose between countries. Serbian President Vučić 7 Sept called off meeting with Kosovo President Thaci, reportedly citing “lies” from Pristina; same day ordered Serbian institutions to stop all communications with Kosovo police and international peacekeepers. Vučić went ahead with rare visit to Kosovo 8-9 Sept; addressing thousands of Kosovo Serbs at rally in Mitrovica 9 Sept, his remarks praising former Serbian President Milosevic, who died while on trial for crimes against humanity, genocide and war crimes, as a “great Serbian leader”, drew criticism from neighbouring countries. Kosovo opposition continued efforts to block potential border change as part of normalisation deal, arguing it would require two-thirds parliamentary approval; local media 20 Sept reported Thaci had asked Constitutional Court to clarify whether his signature of an international agreement would be sufficient for ratification. Thousands joined opposition-organised protest against border correction proposal 29 Sept. Vučić in interview published 13 Sept said Serbia would need clear guarantees of EU membership in 2025 if it reaches agreement with Kosovo. Pristina deployed special police to Gazivode Lake area in northern Kosovo 29 Sept for visit by Thaci, prompting Serbia to put its troops on alert and accuse Pristina of breaking agreements. Govt 13 Sept approved bill expanding competences of Kosovo Security Force (KSF) without need for constitutional changes; Thaci expressed concern about need for support from Western allies including U.S. and NATO. Local NGO Kosovar Center for Security Studies published report 19 Sept claiming Belgrade put pressure on over 60 ethnic Serb members of Kosovo Security Force to resign. Local NGO Aktiv reported that integration of courts in Serb-run north into Kosovo judicial system, which came into force Oct 2017 following agreement as part of Serbia-Kosovo dialogue, has not helped backlog of tens of thousands of court cases.

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