CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Europe & Central Asia

North Macedonia

Ruling Social Democrats (SDSM) made large gains in local elections, winning 40 out of 81 municipalities in 15 Oct first round, including capital Skopje, against three for opposition VMRO-DPMNE and two for junior ruling party Democratic Union for Integration. SDSM won eighteen out of 35 remaining municipalities in 29 Oct second round, giving it total of 57 municipalities. VMRO-DPMNE, which won five seats overall, rejected results. OSCE monitors said elections democratic, competitive and respected fundamental freedoms.

Europe & Central Asia

North Macedonia

Campaigning began for 15 Oct local elections, seen by observers as popularity test of PM Zaev’s new govt.

Europe & Central Asia

North Macedonia

Macedonia and Bulgaria 1 Aug signed friendship treaty including trade and transport commitments, Bulgaria to support Macedonia’s bid to join NATO and EU. Opposition VMRO DPMNE continued efforts to stall work of parliament and launch no-confidence motions against govt ministers, prompting concerns over parliament’s ability to advance reform agenda. Parliament 16 Aug dismissed controversial public prosecutor Marko Zvrlevski. Serbia 20 Aug withdrew its diplomatic staff following allegations of “offensive intelligence activities” against Serbia; leaders later agreed on dialogue to improve relations. Macedonian and Greek foreign ministers met in Skopje 31 Aug, discussed ways to revive talks on their longstanding dispute on use of name Macedonia.

Europe & Central Asia

North Macedonia

Small ethnic Albanian party DPA – Movement for Reforms, which holds three seats in parliament, 12 July said it would withdraw support for PM Zaev’s new govt unless it adopts law extending official use of Albanian “within a reasonable time”. Matthew Nimetz, UN special envoy in longstanding dispute between Macedonia and Greece over use of name Macedonia, following visit to Skopje and Athens early July said no breakthrough in name talks anticipated in coming months; Zaev late month told Politico if Greek side is “prepared to help us, we are prepared to think about everything that will be helpful”. Macedonia and Bulgaria 13 July agreed text of friendship treaty, to be signed 1 Aug, to end historic tensions and improve relations. Appeals Court 24 July rejected plea by special prosecutor to detain former PM Gruevski and other former ministers ahead of their trials for election fraud. Helsinki Committee for Human Rights 25 July reported sharp rise in hate crimes over previous year, nearly half apparently with ethnic motive, many with political motive. Joint military exercise with U.S. began in central Macedonia late July.

Europe & Central Asia

North Macedonia

During visit to Brussels 12 June, new PM Zaev told senior EU and NATO officials his govt will seek to secure progress by autumn on reforms needed for start of EU accession talks, and discussed options for revitalising NATO membership bid. EU Commissioner Johannes Hahn stressed importance of rapid reforms in judiciary and security institutions and resolution of longstanding dispute with Greece over use of the name Macedonia, which has held up progress on NATO and EU membership; visiting Skopje 26 June, Hahn said EU will help govt with key reforms, while Zaev said govt hopes for green light to open accession talks by year-end. New Foreign Minister Nikola Dimitrov met Greek counterpart Nikos Kotzias in Athens 13 June; Kotzias expressed his commitment to “just compromise” on name issue and further developing bilateral relations. UN special envoy in name dispute Matthew Nimetz to visit Skopje and Athens early July, first visit since July 2014. Special Prosecutor Katica Janeva 29 June charged former PM Gruevski and 93 others including other former senior govt figures in seventeen corruption cases; charges against Gruevski include election fraud. Gruevski said his party being persecuted; hundreds of his supporters protested outside criminal court same day.

Europe & Central Asia

North Macedonia

President Ivanov 17 May offered mandate to form new govt to leader of Social Democrat SDSM party Zoran Zaev, following five months without govt after Dec 2016 elections. Ivanov, who had previously withheld mandate from Zaev despite his majority in parliament, citing Zaev’s acceptance of conditions set by ethnic Albanian parties, said “obstacles” for awarding mandate for new govt had been removed; Zaev reiterated commitment to “guarantee protection of unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity”. Followed increasing international pressure on Ivanov to offer mandate as route out of political crisis, particularly following protesters’ violent storming of parliament 27 April after it elected new ethnic Albanian speaker. PM-designate Zaev 28 May unveiled new cabinet, including seventeen ministers from SDSM, six from main ethnic Albanian party Democratic Union for Integration, and two from Alliance for Albanians; parliament approved new coalition govt 31 May. Special Prosecution 22 May launched investigations into new corruption probes, including two involving former PM Gruevski.

Europe & Central Asia

North Macedonia

Political standoff turned violent late month as protesters opposed to new opposition Social Democrat (SDSM)-led coalition govt stormed parliament after new ethnic Albanian speaker was voted in, injuring scores. Visiting Skopje 3 April, European Council President Tusk 3 April urged President Ivanov to award mandate to form govt to SDSM leader Zoran Zaev, urged country to “avoid anything that could further fuel ethnic tensions”; Ivanov said his position unchanged. VMRO DPMNE MPs (who won 51 of 120 parliament seats in Dec 2016 election) continued to filibuster parliament to block effort to elect new speaker and establish new opposition-led coalition govt, continued to call for fresh elections; street protests by VMRO DPMNE supporters against new govt continued. 67 MPs (out of 120 seats) voted 27 April to elect new parliament speaker, ethnic Albanian Talat Xhaferi; VMRO DPMNE called election “coup attempt”. Violence broke out as protesters stormed parliament and attacked MPs; over 100 people reportedly injured including Zaev and three MPs from majority parties and several journalists. EU, NATO and U.S. condemned violence and called for dialogue. Provisional interior minister Agim Nuhiu accused police of failing to do their job, tendered his resignation citing his failure to eliminate political influence in police.

Europe & Central Asia

North Macedonia

Political crisis deepened as President Ivanov 1 March refused to give opposition Social Democratic Union (SDSM) party leader Zoran Zaev mandate to form govt, despite Zaev’s claim to have formed majority in parliament, saying that ethnic Albanian parties’ conditions for supporting Zaev could “destroy” country. Zaev called Ivanov’s refusal to award him mandate “coup”, said Ivanov “has pushed Macedonia into a constitutional and national crisis”. EU foreign policy chief Mogherini visited Macedonia 2 March in bid to resolve crisis, reportedly urged Ivanov to give Zaev mandate; U.S. and OSCE expressed similar concerns, while Moscow voiced support for Ivanov and former ruling party Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organisation – Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO DPMNE). Main ethnic Albanian party DUI 4 March said it would join govt led by Zaev. Zaev 10 March presented platform in detail in attempt to allay Ivanov’s concerns, said it would “strictly abide” by terms of constitution. Former PM Gruevski continued to call for fresh election; his supporters continued daily protests. Mogherini 6 March urged political leaders not to “turn this into an inter-ethnic confrontation that would ruin the country and probably spread further”. Four masked people threw Molotov cocktail at Albanian museum in Bitola 7 March. EU Enlargement Commissioner Johannes Hahn 21 March visited Skopje in effort to help resolve crisis. Parliament convened 27 March to elect new speaker; VMRO DPMNE MPs attempted to prevent vote with filibuster.

Europe & Central Asia

North Macedonia

After failure of former ruling party VMRO DPMNE to form new govt by late Jan deadline following 11 Dec elections, President Ivanov 2 Feb said he would give mandate for forming new govt to party which can demonstrate proof of majority in parliament. VMRO DPMNE called for new elections, accused opposition of sacrificing national interest by making too many concessions to ethnic Albanian parties to win their support for coalition. Opposition Social Democratic Union (SDSM) leader Zoran Zaev 27 Feb claimed mandate to form govt after main ethnic Albanian party DUI and two other ethnic Albanian parties said they would back SDSM, giving him majority support in parliament; conditions for their support included passage of new language law extending use of Albanian as second official language throughout country. Former PM Gruevski 26 Feb said deal unconstitutional and jeopardised state interests. Protests led by VMRO DPMNE broke out in Skopje 27 Feb, drawing thousands and spreading to other towns next day; protesters criticising deal with Albanian parties and calling for protection of ethnic Macedonian interests. Two journalists covering protests in Skopje assaulted 28 Feb.

Europe & Central Asia

North Macedonia

Nikola Gruevski’s VMRO DPMNE party, which narrowly won most seats in closely-contested 11 Dec elections, failed to meet 29 Jan deadline to form new govt as ethnic Albanian Democratic Union for Integration (DUI), VMRO DPMNE’s partner in previous coalition govt, said it had not decided whether to join new coalition; VMRO DPMNE called for few elections. Representatives of three out of the four ethnic Albanian parties – DUI, Movement for Reform – Democratic Party of Albanians (LR-PDSH) and Besa Movement – 7 Jan signed joint declaration outlining preconditions for their participation in govt, including making Albanian an official language. Special Prosecutor (SJO) investigating wiretapping scandal 18 Jan announced it was dropping all charges including blackmail against opposition leader Zoran Zaev due to lack of evidence.

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