CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Africa

Democratic Republic of Congo

Election Commission announced incumbent Joseph Kabila’s victory over Jean-Pierre Bemba in October presidential run-off vote: Kabila received 58%, Bemba 42%. Supreme Court confirmed Kabila’s victory, while Bemba, after initially rejecting result, accepted outcome 28 November and said would play role of opposition through legal means. Bemba supporters set fire to Court and battled with security forces 21 November. Earlier, fighting in Kinshasa between Bemba supporters and security forces killed 4. Kabila inauguration due 6 December. Tribal clash in western Bandundu province 20 November killed 8. MONUC and army/11th brigade clashed with forces of rebel leader Laurent Nkunda from 25 November around city of Sake in North Kivu.

Africa

Democratic Republic of Congo

After month of high tension ahead of 29 October run-off election between incumbent Joseph Kabila and VP Jean-Pierre Bemba, voting passed off mostly peacefully, but serious concerns remain about potential for violence surrounding announcement of results: preliminary figures expected within 10 days. Situation calm in Kinshasa, but tensions remain despite presence of 1,600 EUFOR soldiers. Violence reported in Equateur province, where at least 2 died when police attacked crowd protesting alleged electoral fraud. Campaigning on both sides exploited ethnic divisions, with violent clashes between opposing supporters throughout country. Worst incident 18 October when Congolese and UN police forced to escort Bemba's campaign team through Lubumbashi, Kabila southeastern stronghold, after they were attacked by mobs. EU High Rep Javier Solana said EUFOR troops should leave when mandate expires 30 November, despite widespread concern departure could jeopardise electoral transition.

Africa

Democratic Republic of Congo

Tensions rose ahead of 29 October presidential run-off vote between President Kabila and Vice-President Bemba. Third- and fourth- placed finishers in 30 July poll, Antoine Gizenga and Nzanga Mobutu, pledged support for Kabila, while Bemba failed to secure alliance with influential Etienne Tshisekedi and his UDPS party, which boycotted first round. Following interventions by South African President Mbeki, EU foreign policy chief Solana and others, Kabila and Bemba met 13 September to discuss confinement of army and militia to barracks during electoral period. Bemba and Kabila representatives signed agreement 25 September to make Kinshasa weapons-free zone during and immediately after vote. Bemba-owned media outlets destroyed in 19 September arson attack, leading to demonstrations and mass arrests. First democratically elected parliament in 20 years inaugurated 22 September, with Kabila’s AMP alliance holding biggest share of seats (approx 300 of 500). Army head in Ituri claimed militias belonging to Front des Nationalistes et Integrationnistes rearming around Bunia. In North Kivu, dissident General Laurent Nkunda warned that deployment of troops to territory under his control would trigger violence. MONUC mandate extended by UN Security Council until 15 February 2007.

Africa

Democratic Republic of Congo

Situation fragile as election process continued. Results of 30 July vote released 20 August, showing regional divide and potential for further unrest: eastern provinces voted for incumbent Kabila, while contenders Bemba, Gizenga and Mobutu strongest in western districts. After no candidate received majority of votes, run-off between Kabila (44.8%) and Bemba (20.03%) scheduled to coincide with provincial elections 29 October, but Kabila pushing for earlier poll. 3-day gun battle in Kinshasa between supporters of Kabila and Bemba before presidential results announced killed 23. EU observers deemed election free and fair but called for greater transparency in vote counting. 7 election officials arrested on allegations of vote-rigging; Supreme Court to give verdict on 8 cases 5 September. 250 EU troops called in as reinforcements to patrol streets before candidates agreed truce 22 August. Parliamentary results expected 4 September. Angola moved troops to border in advance of electoral results and sent 1,700 Katangan Tigers back to country. UPC militia leader Thomas Lubanga charged by ICC with recruiting child soldiers despite calls for wider charges of murder, rape and torture.

Africa

Democratic Republic of Congo

General elections 30 July – first free polls in 40 years – reported generally peaceful; full results expected end August. Concerns remain of challenges then igniting unrest. Questions raised over electoral irregularities, including excess 5 million ballots, but Catholic Church and some presidential candidates lifted calls for boycott days before poll. Violence spiked in pre-election rallies in Kinshasa and Kivus, killing 11; High Media Authority offices plundered and 1 journalist murdered amidst fears of media intimidation. Worst fighting in recent months between army and militias in parts of Ituri; UN/DRC forces suffered setback after rebels retook town of Tchei following UN withdrawal end June. In positive move, MRC rebels in Ituri accepted amnesty and agreed to integrate into national army; government claimed 4,000 surrendered arms by end of 2-month voluntary disarmament. North Kivu militia leader Laurent Nkunda pledged not to disrupt elections and created political-military party in alliance with MRC. Katangese Tigers reportedly arriving from Angola along border heightened security concerns as country awaits election results.

Africa

Democratic Republic of Congo

Situation remained tenuous as country struggled to prepare for 30 July elections. Several major political parties continued to demand negotiations to ensure free and fair process. Official campaigning began 30 June, amid warnings from UN Security Council delegation over dangerous nationalist rhetoric. First day of campaign marred by unrest: 12 killed when police opened fire on anti-government protest in Matadi. 800 EU soldiers with UNSC mandate began deployment to Kinshasa, expected fully operational by 29 July; 1,200 troops to stand by in Gabon. UNSC extended MONUC mandate to end September. Clashes between soldiers, peacekeepers and militias persisted in Ituri, where estimated 4,000 remaining militiamen given new 30 June disarmament deadline. Ethnic Lendu militia threatened to kill 7 Nepalese peacekeepers taken hostage in May, but 2 released 27 June.

Africa

Democratic Republic of Congo

Tensions increased substantially in Kinshasa as a third of 33 presidential candidates called for new electoral commission head and talks to renegotiate 30 July election date. Government cracked down on opposition as forces loyal to President Kabila harassed other candidates, and restrictions placed on 3 radio stations for inflammatory broadcasts. 10,000 Kabila supporters marched in Kinshasa 31 May against opposition call for negotiations. 52 rebels, 6 government soldiers, 1 UN peacekeeper killed in clashes in Ituri, where joint DRC- MONUC operation continued to flush out illegal armed groups responsible for near-daily attacks. FDLR rebels attacked 2 villages and army base in North Kivu. In Katanga, Mai Mai warlord Gedeon Kyungu and 350 fighters surrendered to take part in DDR program.

Africa

Democratic Republic of Congo

Logistical delays, political wrangling and continued fighting by militia in Kivus and Katanga obstructing elections: vote set for 30 July. Main opposition party UDPS announced boycott of polls, claiming will not be free and fair. Electoral commission accepted 33 presidential candidates; 10,000 signed up to run for 500 parliamentary seats. Supreme Court ruled Kabila could run for president, after opposition group submitted petition against candidature. UN and Congolese troops launched offensive against FDLR rebels in east, while new contingent of peacekeepers arrived to boost security in Katanga, where fighting between army and Mai Mai militias has displaced thousands. UN Security Council authorised redeployment of peacekeepers from Burundi to DRC, and EU mission to support MONUC for elections.

Africa

Democratic Republic of Congo

EU agreed to send German-led military mission of up to 1,450 troops to assist during elections scheduled for late June/early July: 400 to be stationed in Kinshasa; others on standby outside DRC. EU asked for UN Security Council approval. Elections face possible delay due to slow candidate registration. Former rebel group RCD-Goma announced would contest polls, while supporters of Etienne Tshisekedi’s UDPS party staged mass rallies in Kinshasa calling for reopening of voter registration. Joint UN-DRC military operations continued against militias in Ituri, but insecurity remained widespread, including in Kivus and Katanga, with thousands displaced. DRC elite commandos ordered to withdraw after dozens mutinied and ransacked UN base 3 March. Leader of UPC militia, Thomas Lubanga, first war crimes suspect to face charges at International Criminal Court.

Africa

Democratic Republic of Congo

New constitution officially adopted 18 February granting DRC new legal framework, including president-PM power share and 2-term limit for elected president. Parliament approved electoral law but election commission announced polls delayed until 18 June from 29 April. EU investigating option of sending troops to reinforce UN mission (MONUC) for elections, but took no decision on size of force and member state contributions. Fighting continued in North Kivu and Katanga between army and militias. MONUC threatened to stop assisting army trying to push out rebels in east, if DRC troops continue to commit human rights violations during operations. Setback for reintegration of ex-fighters into army after 6 starved to death at Kamina training camp because allotted rations and payment not arriving.

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