Following announcement that President Kabila will not run in Dec presidential election, violence could flare if definitive list of candidates – to be published 19 Sept – excludes main opposition contenders. Ruling coalition 8 Aug announced that Kabila would not run, abiding by constitutional two-term limit, but that it would be represented by Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, secretary general of coalition’s main party People’s Party for Reconstruction and Development. Jean-Pierre Bemba, leader of opposition party Movement for the Liberation of Congo acquitted by International Criminal Court (ICC) in June, returned to Congo 1-5 Aug, submitting presidential candidacy. Govt prevented Moïse Katumbi, leader of opposition platform Together for Change, returning to Congo to submit candidacy before 8 Aug deadline, denying him authorisation to land at Lubumbashi airport and refusing him entry through land border with Zambia 3 and 4 Aug. Authorities arrested dozens of his supporters in Lubumbashi. Katumbi’s spokesperson 12 Aug said his platform had asked Council of State to lift irregular measure blocking his return. In total 25 people lodged presidential candidacies. Main opposition parties 13 Aug reaffirmed intention to unite behind single candidate. Electoral commission 24 Aug published provisional list of candidates, barring six would-be candidates, including Bemba on account of his ICC conviction for witness tampering. All six began procedures at constitutional court to overturn decision. Catholic Church, affiliated lay organisation, international community and opposition welcomed Kabila’s decision to step down, but underscored that electoral commission needed to resolve multiple issues to ensure free, fair and credible vote. In North Kivu province in east, fourteen bodies found in Beni area 7 Aug, suspected victims of Allied Democratic Forces armed group; fighting between two armed groups in Kalungu area, Masisi territory reportedly left at least twelve civilians dead 5-10 Aug; army fought Nduma Defence of Congo armed group to take control of Kasugho and Kagheri areas, Lubero territory 14-17 Aug. Govt 1 Aug declared new Ebola outbreak around Beni, North Kivu, and cases since reported in Ituri province; 75 deaths reported by 30 Aug.

President Kabila 19 July reaffirmed his commitment to respect the constitution, but remained vague on whether he intended to stand in Dec elections; according to electoral timetable, presidential candidates must register by 8 Aug. Major opposition parties 23 July jointly called for cleaning of voter list, cancellation of plans to use voting machines, confidence-building measures as outlined in Dec 2016 Saint Sylvester agreement and replacement of representative from opposition party Union for Democracy and Social Progress in electoral commission council. Opposition and ruling majority began talks on voter list. Opposition party Movement for the Liberation of Congo (MLC) 13 July said it had chosen party leader Jean-Pierre Bemba, acquitted by International Criminal Court in June, as presidential candidate. MLC extended Bemba’s presidency of party for five years. Bemba returned to DR Congo 1 Aug. Ruling majority expressed doubt that Bemba was legally allowed run for presidency. Platform of opposition leader Moïse Katumbi 30 July said Katumbi would return to DR Congo 3 Aug. Electoral commission 24 June-13 July registered candidates for provincial elections and 26 July published provisional list of over 18,000 candidates for 715 seats. Govt reshuffled command positions in army 14 and 24 July. In first reshuffle, Gen John Numbi was appointed inspector general of armed forces and Lt Gen Amisi Kumba Gabriel was appointed deputy chief of staff; both have been sanctioned by international partners for involvement in human rights violations. Govt cancelled visits by UN sec-gen and U.S. ambassador to UN scheduled for July. Kabila reportedly also cancelled his visit to Angola planned for late July. Navies of DR Congo and Uganda 7 July exchanged fire on Lake Edward, which straddles disputed border, one Ugandan soldier killed. DR Congo 11 July accused Ugandan military of shooting dead twelve Congolese fishermen and arresting about 100 others. Congolese delegation visited Uganda late month to discuss issues over lake. Uganda 28 July said it had sentenced 35 Congolese to up to three years for illegal fishing. Govt 24 July declared over Ebola outbreak that killed 33 people.

Preparations for Dec elections continued more or less on track and International Criminal Court (ICC) acquitted former VP Jean-Pierre Bemba. Parliament 8 June voted to amend voter registration law so that Congolese overseas will not be able to register and vote. Lay movement of Catholic Church 14 June called on President Kabila to state publicly whether he intended to run for third term and on electoral commission to address number of issues before 30 June, calling on population to take matter into their own hands if deadline not met. At first major public meeting in capital Kinshasa of opposition leader Moïse Katumbi’s Together for Change platform 9 June, Katumbi from exile via Skype reiterated he will return soon to lodge his candidacy and emphasised need for single opposition candidate. Authorities briefly held Katumbi at Brussels airport for travelling with falsified passport; Congolese prosecutor opened investigation into matter 18 June. ICC 8 June acquitted Jean-Pierre Bemba, leader of opposition party Movement for the Liberation of Congo (MLC), arrested in May 2008 and sentenced in June 2016 to eighteen years in prison for war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by his forces in Central African Republic in 2002-2003. Other opposition leaders, especially leader of Union for the Congolese Nation Vital Kamerhe, welcomed Bemba’s possible return to political scene. U.S. 21 June said it had placed visa bans on several senior officials for corruption tied to electoral process, without publishing names, to underline need for peaceful transfer of power. MLC Senator Mongulu Tapangane appointed to constitutional court 21 June. Armed group and criminal violence continued in east at low level. World Health Organization 26 June said Ebola outbreak had been “largely contained” with 55 cases reported, of which 38 confirmed (last confirmed case 6 June) and 28 deaths.

Govt and opposition continued to wrangle over preparations for Dec elections, as armed group violence persisted in east. International Organisation of La Francophonie 6-25 May audited voter register, identified multiple issues, including that 16.6% of voters had been registered without digital recording of their fingerprints; recommended how electoral commission could improve register. Govt 18 May said that list of authorised political parties and coalitions – contested by opposition parties and NGOs – would be revised based on recommendations of committee for follow-up of Dec 2016 Saint Sylvester agreement. Catholic Church 15 and 24 May expressed concern with stalled implementation of Saint Sylvester agreement and with various aspects of election preparations and repeated call for independent audit of voting machines. Kabila 14 May appointed three new judges to Constitutional Court, including two close allies. Police disrupted meetings of opposition leader Moïse Katumbi’s Together for Change movement in Lubumbashi, Haut-Katanga province 3 May and in Bunia, Ituri province 19 May. Three MPs, including two Katumbi allies, banned from parliament 11 May, officially for absenteeism. Katumbi and opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi 25 May confirmed intention to put forward single presidential candidate. Violence continued, especially in east. Unidentified assailants killed park ranger and kidnapped two British tourists and their driver in Virunga national park, North Kivu province 11 May, releasing driver almost immediately and tourists two days later. Mai Mai militia attacked convoy of UN mission (MONUSCO) in Tanganyika province 11 May. Mai Mai militia attacked Namoya gold mine in Maniema province causing multiple casualties 24 May, reportedly tried to take foreign workers hostage but repelled by guards. Suspected Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) militia attacked Mangboko village, Beni territory, North Kivu 20 May killing ten civilians. ADF militants clashed with army on Mbau-Kamango axis, North Kivu 24 May, fourteen ADF and five soldiers killed. Ebola outbreak in Equateur province began early April, reported 8 May; 35 cases confirmed and 25 deaths recorded as of 28 May, World Health Organization began using experimental vaccine.

As preparations for elections in Dec continued, opposition contested electoral commission (CENI)’s plan to use voting machines. Comité Laïc de Coordination (lay organisation of Catholic Church) 8 April asked CENI not to use them to avoid undermining vote’s credibility; five opposition parties jointly contested numbers of voters in register and demanded external audit. Together for Change, platform of opposition leader Moïse Katumbi, held its first meeting in Lubumbashi 7 April. Attorney general late March opened investigation into allegations Katumbi held Italian citizenship while governor of Katanga province, another attempt to prevent him from running in election. President Kabila 16 April rejected international role in elections. Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) 24 April organised first major opposition rally in capital Kinshasa. Govt agreed with UDPS and Tshisekedi family 21 April on arrangements for repatriation from Belgium of body of former party leader Etienne Tshisekedi who died Feb 2017 and funeral, without specifying date. Violence continued across country, especially in east in North and South Kivu and Ituri provinces. In North Kivu, Allied Democratic Forces 17 April attacked Ngite village, looting houses, before army routed them. Unidentified assailants carried out attack in Mungunga neighbourhood of Goma, North Kivu 30 April killing at least seven people. In north west, fighting began in South Ubangi province 23 April between ethnic Enyele militia and security forces, at least 47 civilians drowned in river fleeing violence. Donors pledged $528mn for humanitarian relief 13 April, conference in Geneva had aimed to raise $1.68bn.

In step toward elections planned for Dec, govt 26 March presented to electoral commission (CENI) list of over 600 registered political parties and coalitions. Opposition politician Moïse Katumbi in exile in South Africa confirmed 11 March his intention to stand for president and creation of new coalition, Together for Change, comprising opposition G7 alliance, Alternance pour la République (AR) alliance and other small parties and associations. Felix Tshisekedi 31 March elected president of Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) and designated party’s candidate for presidential poll; rival UDPS factions contested his election. Parliament speaker 1 March agreed to UDPS’s request to place on parliamentary agenda replacement of UDPS representative in CENI, in line with Dec 2016 Saint Sylvester agreement’s provision to refresh CENI, and announced possible adjustment of electoral law adopted in Dec. Mixed commission of inquiry comprising govt and civil society with African Union support 10 March submitted final report on human rights abuses during 31 Dec and 21 Jan protests, confirming that security forces killed fourteen people and injured 46. Violence between Lendu and Hema ethnic groups in Djugu area in Ituri province left around 30 people dead 1-2 March, and 39 to 41 people 12-13 March; UN patrol 17 March killed two presumed militia members. Military 24 March said it had killed thirteen militiamen and one soldier had also been killed during clashes in Jemi and Penyi, Ituri province. Alleged members of Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) armed group 3 March killed seven people near Eringeti in North Kivu; suspected ADF 27 March killed at least eleven civilians in Beni, North Kivu.

Crackdown by security forces on anti-govt protests led by Catholic Church-affiliated Comité Laïc de Coordination 25 Feb left two people dead, one in Kinshasa and one in Mbandaka, capital of Equateur province in north west. Platform of protestant churches (ECC) 19 Feb reaffirmed support for elections and electoral commission. Catholic bishops concluded congress 15-17 Feb expressing concerns over violent repression of protests and increased insecurity, while demanding full implementation of Dec 2016 Saint Sylvester agreement and international certification of new electronic voting machines. Conflict between Hema and Lendu communities escalated in Dungu area, Ituri province leaving 60 to 100 people dead in 2018 and forcing some 27,000 people to flee to Uganda mid-Feb; govt and UN mission (MONUSCO) reinforced their presence in area. Security forces repelled attack by alleged Kamuina Nsapu militants in Lombelu, Kasai Central province in centre 26 Feb, clash reportedly left one soldier and fourteen others dead. Army 19 Feb captured camp of armed group Allied Democratic Forces and killed one commander in Beni area, North Kivu. Clashes between ethnic Hutu on one side and Nande and Hundu groups on other left sixteen civilians and seven militiamen dead in Rutshuru territory, North Kivu 25-28 Feb. Army 15 Feb reported killing 48 members of armed group Mai Mai Yakutumba in South Kivu province, forcing some combatants to flee to Burundi and recapturing large areas since launch of new offensive late Jan. After alleged bandits killed three people in separate incidents in Bukavu, South Kivu 15 Feb, residents next day launched large-scale protests against authorities for failing to counter growing insecurity. Rwanda requested investigation into incursion into Rwandan territory by Congolese army 13 Feb, during which three Congolese soldiers killed. Tanzanian authorities 2 Feb arrested and extradited to DRC self-proclaimed General John Tshibangu who threatened Congolese govt with armed uprising. Regional bloc Southern African Development Community 3 Feb said it would open liaison office in Kinshasa.

Following large anti-govt demonstrations on first anniversary of Saint Sylvester agreement 31 Dec, protests against President Kabila’s rule organised in capital Kinshasa and other major cities 21 Jan by Comité Laïc de Coordination, activists affiliated to Catholic Church; repression by security forces reportedly left six people dead. Catholic Archbishop of Kinshasa 2 Jan denounced repression and 12 Jan held mass to commemorate victims. Electoral commission concluded voter registration 31 Jan, said 46mn voters registered, 12% more than expected. Suspected militia fighters 14 Jan killed four soldiers near Kananga airport in Central Kasai province. Kamuina Nsapu militia killed nine civilians in Bata Ishama and Kakenge villages, Kasai province 29-30 Jan. Congolese army 13 Jan launched new operations against armed group Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) in N Kivu in east and reported twenty military personnel killed in ADF attack 19 Jan. Ugandan President Museveni 14 Jan held meeting of East African chiefs of defence forces and representatives of DRC and South Africa to discuss conflict with ADF. Security forces intensified operations against Mai Mai militia in S Kivu causing almost 7,000 people to flee to Burundi and 1,200 to Tanzania late Jan.

Main opposition coalition Rassemblement failed to mobilise protest marches 19 Dec, one year after constitutional end of President Kabila’s second and last term. Security forces dispersed protests against Kabila’s rule in capital Kinshasa and other cities 31 Dec, called by Catholic Church-affiliated civil society platforms and supported by opposition, seven people reportedly killed. Parliament adopted electoral law 15 Dec, which Kabila promulgated 24 Dec. Unidentified assailants, presumed Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) militia, attacked UN troops (MONUSCO) in Semliki, east of Beni, N Kivu province 7 Dec killing fifteen Tanzanians and five Congolese soldiers. Uganda increased troops along its border with DRC and 22 Dec used long-range artillery and fighter planes to attack bases in DRC of ADF, which it accused of planning to conduct hostilities against Uganda; attack coordinated with DRC govt. Unidentified assailants night of 24-25 Dec attacked and burned home belonging to Kabila in Lubero territory, N Kivu, one policeman killed.

Electoral commission (CENI) 5 Nov published electoral calendar scheduling national (presidential and legislative) and provincial polls for 23 Dec 2018, leading to swearing in of elected president in Jan 2019, over a year after deadline in 31 Dec 2016 agreement. Opposition and civil society unanimously rejected calendar. African Union 7 Nov, Catholic Church 24 Nov and UN Security Council 28 Nov insisted on ensuring no further postponements. Catholic Church 20 Nov published initial findings of voter registration assessment, identifying irregularities including double registration of voters, registration of minors, and registration in return for cash. Govt 20 Nov tabled in parliament amended electoral law; proposed draft stipulates that each constituency’s number of seats is to be based solely on number of registered voters, includes threshold percentage of votes party list must win in order to get any seats at national and provincial levels, and measure to restrict MPs leaving party to stand as independents or join other parties. Opposition coalition Rassemblement and civil society called for national strike, held on 15 Nov with limited adherence; protest-related violence reported in Goma in east and Lubumbashi in south east. Opposition staged additional protests in Beni, North Kivu 21 Nov and Kinshasa 28 Nov. Opposition’s call for protests went relatively unheeded in several cities 30 Nov, police dispersed protestors with tear gas and arrested two opposition leaders. Govt 20 Nov submitted for parliamentary approval 2018 budget of nearly $6bn, with 8.8% reserved for elections. On security front, situation remained volatile in Central Kasai, where voter registration continued. In North Kivu, presumed Allied Democratic Forces militia clashed with military throughout month mostly east and north east of Beni; other armed group activity reported in Lubero, Masisi and Rutshuru territories. In South Kivu, govt forces fought with Mai Mai-Yakutumba coalition for control of Kilembwe, Fizi territory 19-20 Nov, at least one killed; army 28 Nov regained control of Kilembwe.