Govt and opposition reached new agreement on way forward after security forces repressed protests 19 Dec at end of President Kabila’s second term (constitutionally his last) and violence continued in east. Clashes between security forces and people protesting Kabila staying in power in Kinshasa, Lubumbashi, Boma and Matadi 19-20 Dec killed at least 40 people, 460 arrested. Kabila 19 Dec appointed new govt led by opposition politician Samy Badibanga. Leader of main opposition coalition Rassemblement, Etienne Tshisekedi, 20 Dec urged people not to recognise Kabila as president and continue peaceful protest. Political dialogue including Rassemblement mediated by Catholic Church (CENCO) resumed 8 Dec after brief suspension, again suspended during 17-21 Dec unrest, signed agreement 31 Dec that Kabila will step down after elections to be held by end of 2017 and appoint PM from Rassemblement to oversee transition; issues still to be negotiated include power-sharing at national level and return of opposition leader Moïse Katumbi. EU 12 Dec imposed asset freezes and travel bans on seven high-ranking security officers for their roles in repressing Sept protests, govt said EU sanctions “illegal”; U.S. same day imposed asset freezes on Kabila allies including former Interior Minister Evarist Boshab and intelligence chief Kalev Mutond. Electoral commission 12 Dec announced start of voter registration in twelve more provinces, said electoral budget at least $1.8bn. Violence continued in east: in N Kivu armed forces (FARDC) clashed with Raia Mutomboki militia in Walikale 7 Dec, nine people killed; UN mission (MONUSCO) and FARDC 16 Dec repelled two attacks by suspected Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebels near Beni killing three; suspected Mai Mai attacked Butembo 19 Dec, peacekeeper, policeman, five militants killed; suspected ethnic militia killed seventeen near Nyanzale 22 Dec reportedly provoking revenge attacks 25 Dec killing thirteen near Beni. In S Kivu, FARDC 11 Dec killed Burundian National Forces for Liberation (FNL) rebel in Uvira; killed at least five Burundian soldiers pursuing FNL rebels 21 Dec, Burundi denied incident (see Burundi). FARDC 4 Dec clashed with Kamuina Nsapu militia in Kasai province (centre-south), thirteen soldiers and eighteen militants killed.

Violence intensified in N Kivu province in east and absence of consensual political agreement on electoral timetable risks renewed violent protests in run-up to official end of President Kabila’s mandate 19 Dec. Implementation of 18 Oct agreement between ruling coalition and some opposition began: PM Matata and govt resigned 14 Nov; Kabila 17 Nov appointed opposition party Union of Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) dissident Samy Badibanga as PM. Despite ongoing mediation by Catholic Church (CENCO), govt continued to repress dissent and cracked down on media: began jamming Radio France International (RFI) 4 Nov after it reported on planned opposition protests; blocked UN-sponsored Radio Okapi 5 Nov for several days. Authorities detained two TV journalists in Kolwezi, Lualaba province 7-8 Nov for broadcasting interview with ex-Katanga governor and opposition leader Moïse Katumbi. Police 5 Nov used tear gas to disperse UDPS protesters in Kinshasa. Clashes between police and students protesting tuition fees hike 9-10 Nov in Kinshasa injured about twenty students. Govt 12 Nov put new restrictions on foreign-owned media. Police 19 Nov blocked access to venues where main opposition coalition Rassemblement planned protests; 26 Nov blocked anti-govt protest march organised by youth movement Lutte pour le Changement in Kinshasa. UDPS Sec Gen 28 Nov called for inclusive political dialogue between govt, opposition and CENCO. Violence intensified in east: in N Kivu province, Mai Mai groups (including Mai Mai Muduhu and Body of Christ) continued to clash with armed forces (FARDC) and police in and near Butembo, Beni territory. Suspected Mai Mai killed eight people in Butalika village, N Kivu 7 Nov. Unclaimed IED blast in Goma outskirts killed seven-year-old girl and injured 32 UN peacekeepers 8 Nov. FARDC 23 Nov recaptured Butuhe and Rwaha villages from Mai Mai and Union of Congolese Patriots (UPLC) militias. Nande and Hutu communities clashed several times including: some 35 Hutu civilians and one rebel killed 27 Nov in attack reportedly by Mai Mai Mazembe on displaced persons’ site near Luhanga, Lubero territory, N Kivu. Attacks attributed to pygmies in Muswaki, Tanganyika province 20-21 Nov killed at least 33.

Govt and opposition involved in political dialogue 18 Oct agreed presidential elections would be held 29 April 2018, Kabila would remain president until new one sworn in 10 May 2018, and opposition representative would be PM during transition. Main opposition coalition Rassemblement and opposition youth movements rejected agreement; Rassemblement called for general strike, somewhat respected 19 Oct in Kinshasa, Goma and other cities. Rassemblement 4 Oct called for “special regime” to govern after Kabila’s term ends 19 Dec, ruling majority and all opposition to hold new political dialogue, and govt to free political prisoners. Electoral commission 10 Oct said voter registration, which started 31 July, would begin in seven more provinces. Govt 8 Oct banned protests and imposed travel ban on organisers of 19-20 Sept strike, resulting in 9 Oct arrest of opposition Union of Democracy and Social Progress deputy sec gen at Kinshasa airport. Southern African Development Community (SADC) troika, Angola, Tanzania and Mozambique, 10-13 Oct met opposition, ruling majority and Catholic Church, expressed support for political dialogue. EU FMs 17 Oct called for elections in 2017, said ready to impose sanctions. SADC, UN, AU and International Conference on the Great Lakes Region 26 Oct held summit on DRC in Angola, expressing support for 18 Oct deal. Police 24-26 Oct arrested seventeen members of youth movement Lutte pour le Changement in Goma, N Kivu; trial of six began 27 Oct on charges of incitement to civil disobedience. In east, Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebels 9 Oct attacked Rwenzori municipality, N Kivu killing nine people; suspected ADF 31 Oct attacked Kitevya, N Kivu, six people died in clash with army (FARDC); clash between FARDC and Body of Christ religious cult 15 Oct in Butembo killed five; police dispersing protests by motorbike taxi drivers against insecurity 16-17 Oct killed seven in Baraka, S Kivu. Leader of secessionist Bakata Katanga militia known as Gédéon and 110 militiamen surrendered to authorities in Malambwe, Haut-Katanga 11 Oct. FARDC 2 Oct recaptured Dibemgele territory, near Kananga, Kasaï-Central, from Kamuina Nsepu militia. Senior commander in Rwandan Hutu rebel group Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda arrested 23 Oct in Kiwanja, N Kivu.

Police and military violently repressed protests against President Kabila and political dialogue faltered. Dialogue began 1 Sept, participants included ruling majority, moderate opposition parties including Vital Kamerhe’s Union for the Congolese Nation (UNC) and several civil society groups including Catholic Church (CENCO); but main opposition coalition Rassemblement, including prominent leaders Etienne Tshisekedi and Moïse Katumbi, refused to join. In Kinshasa supporters of opposition parties rejecting dialogue 1 Sept threw rocks at HQs of UNC and other opposition parties in dialogue, some twenty people arrested. UNC 12 Sept suspended participation when electoral commission (CENI) proposed holding presidential elections in 2018, preceded by local elections; AU mediator Edem Kodjo 16 Sept said parties agreed presidential, legislative and provincial elections would be held on same day. CENI would determine if local elections could also be held on same day. Rassemblement and opposition youth movement Lutte pour le Changement (LUCHA) 19-20 Sept organised protests demanding that President Kabila leave office within three months; police used tear gas and live ammunition to disperse protesters; UNHCHR said 53 people killed. Opposition party Union of Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) said pro-govt militias attacked its HQ night of 19-20 Sept. CENCO 20 Sept suspended participation in dialogue and conditioned return on Kabila not standing in next presidential election. Moderate opposition suspended participation 23 Sept citing govt repression, dialogue suspended, resumed 30 Sept. UN, AU, EU and Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie (OIF) 24 Sept jointly called on political leaders to refrain from using violence. U.S. 28 Sept imposed sanctions on Maj. Gen. Gabriel Amisi, military commander of western defence zone including Kinshasa, and former police commander John Numbi. Clashes between police and people protesting growing insecurity in Kasumbalesa, ex-Katanga province 8-9 Sept killed seven people. Attacks attributed to Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) militants near Beni, N Kivu killed two people 17 Sept and seven 22 Sept; rumour of ADF attack and soldier shooting in air 24 Sept caused panic, stampede killed seventeen. Fighting between militia group sympathetic to traditional chief Kamuina Nsapu and security forces at Kananga airport, Kasai-Central province reportedly killed 49.

President Kabila and electoral commission (CENI) delayed setting electoral calendar, while some opposition groups continued to reject dialogue. Kabila 4 Aug said electoral calendar would not be published before end of voter registration, launched 31 July; CENI 20 Aug said elections could not be held before July 2017 due to lack of finances and voter list. In support of political dialogue Catholic Church 10 Aug began consultations with ruling party and major opposition groups. To ease tensions Kabila 18 Aug met youth activists Lutte pour le Changement (Lucha) and govt 19 Aug said it would free 24 political prisoners; opposition claimed twenty of those 24 already free. Dialogue preparatory committee convened 23-27 Aug, set dialogue for 1-14 Sept. Some opposition parties, including Union for the Congolese Nation (UNC), took part in preparatory meetings; main opposition coalition Rassemblement boycotted committee and called for general strike to be held 23 Aug, with limited success: police arrested 32 people. Police dispersed with tear gas opposition rally in Lubumbashi, Haut-Katanga 29 Aug. Armed groups continued violence against civilians in N Kivu: army said Mai Mai and Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) 6-7 Aug launched attacks in several places in N Kivu, killing fourteen people; suspected Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) members reportedly killed 51 people in Beni, N Kivu night of 13-14 Aug; suspected ADF 22 Aug reportedly killed two people in Kiteya, N Kivu; crowd in Butembo, N Kivu killed two women suspected of supporting ADF. Attacks sparked protests in east; violent protest in Beni 17 Aug left three dead, including policeman and woman suspected of being ADF member.

Little progress made to resolve electoral crisis as opposition continued to reject President Kabila’s political dialogue. Electoral commission 5 July said it would organise elections after renewal of electoral register which would take at least sixteen months. Opposition grouping Rassemblement 4 July reiterated rejection of Kabila’s dialogue and 24 July rejected African Union (AU) facilitator Edem Kodjo. Catholic Church 22 July and AU 26 July called for dialogue to begin soon, AU expressed confidence in Kodjo. After two years’ absence Etienne Tshisekedi, leader of opposition Union of Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) and Rassemblement, returned to Kinshasa 27 July. In Kinshasa tens of thousands of Kabila supporters rallied 29 July and similar numbers of opposition supporters rallied 31 July calling for Kabila to step down. Ex-Katanga governor and opposition leader Moïse Katumbi and former Planning Minister Olivier Kamitatu 13 July in Washington called for more sanctions against govt; opposition delegation led by Tshisekedi, 18 July sought support from EU, U.S. and UK special representatives for Great Lakes region in Paris. UNSG Ban 5 July said peacekeeping mission (MONUSCO) developing plans in case of widespread violence, UN Deputy SG 7 July expressed concern that mission would not have capacity to respond. In east, attacks against civilians attributed to Allied Defence Forces (ADF) rebels continued, including 5 July raid in Oicha, near Beni, N Kivu that left nine people dead; clash between army and ADF 30-31 July in Oicha killed three ADF, two soldiers and two civilians.

Political manoeuvring over electoral crisis continued as ethnic tensions rose in east. Ruling party Sec Gen 4 June raised possibility of referendum on constitution to extend President Kabila’s rule. Etienne Tshisekedi, leader of opposition Union of Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS), brought together representatives of most opposition parties and civil society near Brussels 8-9 June: participants rejected dialogue as foreseen by Kabila but called for UN, EU, AU, International Organisation of La Francophonie and U.S. to support AU-appointed facilitator Edem Kodjo, established “Rassemblement” follow-up mechanism. Tshisekedi met Kodjo in Brussels 17 June, expressed support for dialogue in spirit of UNSC Resolution 2277. In east, army and UN operations against Rwandan Hutu rebel group Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) stoked tensions between Hutu and other ethnic groups at Buleusa, eastern Walikale; non-Hutu groups suspected Hutu of complicity with FDLR. UN Force Intervention Brigade 16 June reportedly killed seven Mai Mai militants who tried to block food distribution to displaced people in Buleusa camp. U.S. imposed sanctions on Kinshasa police chief Céléstin Kanyama 23 June for “violence against civilians”.

Constitutional court 11 May ruled that President Kabila could legally stay in office after his second term ends in Dec if elections have not been held. Main opposition parties rejected judgement, called for protest marches. Anti-govt protests held throughout country 26 May, clashed with police in several cities, one protester and one policeman killed in Goma. Ex-Katanga Governor Moïse Katumbi 4 May said he would run in presidential elections; govt same day opened investigation into Katumbi’s alleged hiring of foreign mercenaries in plot against govt. Prosecutor general 19 May issued arrest warrant for him but Katumbi flew with prosecutor’s permission to South Africa 20 May for medical treatment, 27 May flew to Europe. Attacks on civilians rose in eastern Beni territory, North Kivu, attributed to Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebels, leaving at least twenty people dead; armed forces 14 May launched new operation against ADF.

Modest progress made toward political dialogue, as protestors clashed with security forces in ex-Katanga province. AU 6 April appointed former Togolese PM Edem Kodjo as facilitator of national political dialogue, however opposition parties except Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) maintained refusal to take part. Electoral Commission 15 April said creation of new voter list would start July, could take three years. In ex-Katanga province, rising crime and murder of two people 17 April in Kolwezi sparked protest against security services; four protesters killed. Tensions increased in Lubumbashi as incidents at offices of political parties that recently joined opposition and are close to former governor now opposition leader Moïse Katumbi 19 April triggered protests and clashes with security forces. Security forces in Lubumbashi 24 April dispersed crowd with shots and tear gas before Katumbi rally, arrested his supporters and bodyguards. In North Kivu province, army renewed offensives against rebel groups including Rwandan Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), claimed displaced people in Masisi hiding rebels in camps; authorities late March began closing four camps, by 13 April forcing some 35,000 people to move on. FDLR late March-early April reportedly tried twice to cross from DRC into Rwanda, causing Rwandan army to increase troops along border.

Political crisis continued with no significant progress toward dialogue, and elections planned for Nov increasingly likely to be delayed. Electoral commission (CENI) 18 March said it could not organise presidential and legislative elections for Nov 2016 as planned due to extensive voter roll update, matter will likely be referred to constitutional court; ruling coalition insists on need for dialogue, opposition continues to refuse, but apparently willing to meet AU mediator Edem Kodjo. G7 group of opposition parties 30 March announced it would back ex-Katanga Governor Moïse Katumbi as presidential candidate if he runs. Indirect elections of provincial governors held 26 March in all but one of 21 newly established provinces after CENI and courts rejected most opposition candidacies. Ruling coalition claimed victory in fifteen provinces, including four created by division of mineral-rich former Katanga province. In South Ubangi province, governor election delayed due to contested election of provincial assembly president. Final results to be published 12 April. In further sign of shrinking free speech, govt 11 March closed La Voix du Katanga radio and television station. UN attack helicopters 24 March engaged Allied Democratic Force (ADF) rebels. UNSC 30 March extended MONUSCO’s mandate for one year, rejecting govt’s appeal to downsize mission.