CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Europe & Central Asia

Serbia

In spite of successful Belgrade efforts to secure status-neutrality of EU rule of law (EULEX) mission in Kosovo (see Kosovo), opposition parties proposed govt no confidence vote, citing Serbian cooperation with EULEX deployment. Army chief Lt. Gen. Ponos late month announced Serbia seeking changes to 1999 Kumanovo agreement to abolish buffer zone between Serbian army and NATO forces in Kosovo. ICTY Chief Prosecutor Serge Brammertz in Serbia 17-18 Nov to evaluate Serbian cooperation with court; Dec report expected to point out continued shortcomings. ICJ 18 Nov ruled it can hear 1999 Croatian lawsuit filed against Serbia for genocide during early 1990s war; Serbia announced intention to file countersuit.

Europe & Central Asia

Serbia

Govt 16 Oct decided to start implementing EU Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) reforms in Jan 2009, in spite of deal being frozen by EU in Sept. Dutch FM said Netherlands would continue to block SAA until Mladic arrest. Interior Minister Ivica Dacic 1 Nov called on Mladic, Hadzic to surrender to police. Serbia expelled Montenegrin and Macedonian ambassadors following countries’ early Oct recognition of Kosovo. Govt 1 Oct signed “security agreement” with NATO, precondition for Partnership for Peace membership in 2009.

Europe & Central Asia

Serbia

Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) ratified 9 Sept; 139 deputies for, 26 against. Serbian Radical Party (SRS) deputy leader Nikolic, who supported ratification amidst divisions within SRS, resigned from party 5 Sept and with 18 others founded new Serb Progressive Party. EU 15 Sept failed to reach consensus on unfreezing pre-membership interim trade deal with Serbia; blocked by Dutch on grounds of lack of full ICTY cooperation. Ruling coalition 19 Sept published draft bill confirming Vojvodina as autonomous province; opposed by SRS and other nationalist parties.

Europe & Central Asia

Serbia

Serbian ambassadors previously recalled from EU countries recognising Kosovo independence reinstated starting 11 Aug, in face of opposition from nationalist DSS. EU 26 Aug said further progress on accession depends on capture and transfer to The Hague of Bosnian Serb war crimes fugitive Ratko Mladic. Former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic, conducting own defence at The Hague, refused to enter plea 29 Aug; judge entered not guilty pleas to all 11 charges. Vojvodina Social Democrats pushing for greater autonomy for province.

Europe & Central Asia

Serbia

Former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic arrested 21 July in Belgrade by Serbian authorities, 13 years after ICTY indictment for genocide, war crimes. Karadzic extradited to Hague 30 July, appeared before ICTY 31 July, refused to enter plea. Arrest major step towards ratification of Apr Stabilitisation and Assocation Agreement, but Bosnian Serb army commander Ratko Mladic remains at large, EU stressed his arrest prerequisite for accession. Nationalists held small, daily demonstrations after arrest; over 10,000 attended rally 29 July with scores, including many police, injured in clashes. Parliament 7 July approved new pro-EU govt led by President Tadic’s DS and former rival SPS. PM Cvetkovic pledged to achieve EU candidate country status by end 2008 and speed up economic, other SAA reforms. Govt 24 July announced reinstatement of ambassadors withdrawn from EU states recognising Kosovo.

Europe & Central Asia

Serbia

Pro-European DS and Socialist SPS 26 June signed coalition deal; outgoing Finance Minister Mirko Cvetkovic nominated PM 27 June. Parliament 25 June elected SPS member Dejanovic speaker. Mounting pressure from ICTY: court president Pocar 23 June reported Serbia to UNSC, accused of hindering witness testimony in case against Milosevic ally Milutinovic; chief prosecutor Brammertz criticised lack of cooperation in 6 June UNSC address. Education Minister Luncar left conference in Oslo in protest against Kosovo Education Minister Hoxhaj representing independent Kosovo. Bomb exploded 7 June at police station in Bujanovac near Kosovo border. Tensions in Muslim Sandzak region as Mufti Zurkolic 16 June accused rival movement List for European Sandzak of storming mosque in Novi Pazar ahead of 23 June elections of religious leaders.

Europe & Central Asia

Serbia

Results of 11 May early general elections: pro- European DS coalition won 102 of 250 seats; radical SRS 78; socialist SPS 20; nationalist DSS/NS 30; LDP 13; minority parties 7. National-level coalition formation talks ongoing; pivotal SPS negotiating with nationalist and pro-European parties. Nationalist parties formed Belgrade city govt 28 May. Serb delegation left 21 May regional summit in protest over Kosovo FM Hyseni being permitted to speak.

Europe & Central Asia

Serbia

Government crisis over ties with EU continued:President Tadic, Deputy PM Djelic, FM Jeremic 29 Apr signed Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA); ratification and entry into force conditioned on cooperation with ICTY. PM Kostunica condemned as “anti-constitutional”, threatened impeachment of Tadic. Signature came after concerted EU pressure for SAA before 11 May parliamentary elections; EU Regional Policy Commissioner Hubner 21 Apr threatened aid cut. ICTY chief prosecutor Brammertz, during 17-18 Apr Belgrade visit, called for better cooperation; said appeal of Haradinaj acquittal under consideration (see Kosovo). Supporters of Sandzak Democratic Party attacked in Novi Pazar 26 Apr.

Europe & Central Asia

Serbia

Coalition government collapsed: President Tadic dissolved parliament 13 March after PM Kostunica resignation 8 March, citing failure to reach common positions on Kosovo independence, future EU relations. Early parliamentary elections scheduled for 11 May. DS Deputy Leader Sutanovac 31 March accused PM Kostunica and Kosovo Minister Samardzic of planning Feb violent riots in Belgrade. In address to UNSC 11 March FM Jeremic called for extension of UNMIK mandate but ruled out embargo against Kosovo. UNMIK spokesman Ivanko called on Belgrade to stop interference in Kosovo north. Recall of ambassadors from countries recognising Kosovo continued.

Europe & Central Asia

Serbia

President Tadic re-elected in 3 Feb second round presidential elections with 50.5% to Serbian Radical Party (SRS) candidate Tomislav Nikolic’s 47.7%. Government unable to agree on proposed EU pre-association agreement. PM Kostunica declared Kosovo EULEX mission illegal 14 Feb, condemned U.S., EU over 17 Feb Kosovo independence declaration (see Kosovo). Declaration sparked violent protests and looting 17-18 Feb, and again on 21 Feb following 200,000-strong rally in Belgrade. 9 Western embassies attacked after government withdrew police protection; U.S. embassy burned, Slovenian embassy sacked. U.S. evacuated non-essential staff 22 Feb. UNSC condemned violence; called on government to restore calm, protect embassies. Belgrade withdrew ambassadors from countries recognising Kosovo. Kostunica said riots a message for law, justice and denounced western “politics of force”. Tadic: “Serbia will never recognise an independent Kosovo”. EU froze association talks 22 Feb. Russian Deputy PM Medvedev and FM Lavrov visited Belgrade 25 Feb, declared support of Serb rejection of Kosovo independence.

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