CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Europe & Central Asia

Serbia

EU suspended Stabilisation and Association talks 3 May after government failed to meet deadline for handing over war crimes suspect Mladic to Hague tribunal; U.S. announced aid cut 31 May. Deputy PM Labus resigned over arrest failure; his party, junior coalition member G17 Plus, threatened to withdraw from government if no arrest by September. Government in disarray after Montenegrin independence vote: with questionable parliamentary majority must now reconstitute itself and appoint new ministers.

Europe & Central Asia

Serbia

Parliament passed law permitting civil courts and police to enforce church court decisions: OSCE and Council of Europe protested. Police closed popular BK TV station in midnight raid. Government controversially dissolved municipal assembly of Bosniak majority Novi Pazar in attempt to prevent recall vote of Mayor Sulejman Ugljanin; 4 bombs exploded in Novi Pazar. In protest Human and Minority Rights Minister Rasim Ljajic resigned as president of South Serbia Coordination Body, leaving Presevo Valley Albanians with no institutional channel for resolving grievances. Over Albanian objections, Serbian government called local elections in Presevo Valley for 4 June. Second round of Stabilisation and Association Agreement negotiations held with EU: next round in May looked unlikely as 30 April EU deadline for arrest of war crimes suspect Mladic elapsed. Parliament passed law freezing assets of fugitive war crimes suspects 7 April.

Europe & Central Asia

Serbia

Former President Slobodan Milosevic died of heart attack 11 March in Hague before conclusion of his trial. Fears raised death could mark return to reactionary nationalist politics and derail EU integration process. Serbian government provided quasi-state funeral that passed nationalist torch from Socialist Party of Serbia to Serbian Radical Party. EU extended deadline by which war crimes suspect Ratko Mladic must be arrested to 30 April; failure will halt Stabilisation and Association Agreement negotiations. Belgrade called for 17,000 Kosovo Serbs to quit UNMIK and Kosovo government jobs despite UNMIK’s earlier plea for end of Serb boycott of institutions. Montenegrin parliament set independence referendum for 21 May; took control of all State Union military forces on its territory.

Europe & Central Asia

Serbia

EU Council threatened Serbia with suspension of Stabilisation and Association negotiations if Ratko Mladic not arrested by 5 April. False reports that Ratko Mladic arrested caused media furore. EU FMs also supported Miroslav Lajcak’s formula of 55% majority for Montenegro’s independence referendum; Montenegrin PM Djukanovic accepted proposal. First face-to-face Kosovo status negotiations between Serbian government and Kosovo Albanians held 20-21 February in Vienna, ended inconclusively; next round 17 March. Serbian parliament accepted results of first round of talks but announcements by key international officials that Kosovo independence likely outcome set off political firestorm in Belgrade. Serbs in Bujanovac, southern Serbia, proposed referendum on partition of town into Serbian and Albanian sectors, after Serb concern local Albanians will increase links with Kosovo.

Europe & Central Asia

Serbia

EU warned association talks could be suspended if fugitive war crime suspects Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic not caught. Albanians in southern Serbia issued “Presevo Declaration” calling for inclusion of Presevo in Kosovo future status talks. EU envoy for Montenegro Miroslav Lajcak visited Podgorica for series of talks between officials and opposition on referendum; fourth round began 31 January.

Europe & Central Asia

Serbia

5 members of Scorpions paramilitary group who filmed their execution of 6 Bosniaks in Srebenica in 1995 went on trial before Belgrade war crimes court 20 December. Earlier court sentenced 14 for 1991 war crimes against Croats in Vukovar, first verdict since 2003 inauguration. Venice Commission’s 19 December report found Montenegro’s referendum law in line with international standards, called for dialogue between government and opposition on referendum standards. EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana appointed Czech Miroslav Lajcak representative to facilitate dialogue.

Europe & Central Asia

Serbia

Serbian parliament adopted resolution authorising government to enter talks with Kosovo Albanians on province’s final status. Serbia sought international support for stance with high-level visits to Russia and China: President Tadic put to Russian President Putin proposal to reshape Kosovo within Serbia along dual entity model of Bosnia; warned of destabilisation if independence granted. In first PM visit to Zagreb since 1991, Kostunica pledged with Croatian PM to resolve legacy of 1991-95 conflict,

Europe & Central Asia

Serbia

EU  opened  Stabilisation  and Association Agreement negotiations 11 October. Montenegro PM Djukanovic said will not postpone spring independence referendum despite EU pressure, but may amend voting rules. Trial of “Vukovar 3” suspected of war crimes in Croatia started in Hague. U.S. Assistant Sec. State Burns said lack of progress on capture of war crimes suspects Mladic and Karadzic blocking improved relations with U.S., EU and NATO. Serbian war crimes court charged 5 Scorpion paramilitaries for 1995 crimes while Serb police arrested 9 fellow officers over 1999 Kosovo killings. Violence broke out at Serbia-Bosnia football match, injuring 19.

Europe & Central Asia

Serbia

PM Kostunica appointed hard-liner Sanda Raskovic-Ivic as new head of Kosovo coordination centre, who called for Serbs to leave UNMIK structures and provisional government. Belgrade began purge of “disloyal” Serbs from Serbian-controlled municipalities in Kosovo. Defence Minister Prvoslav Davinic offered resignation 8 September over high profile corruption scandal involving purchase of unnecessary equipment at inflated prices. Supreme Court Judge Ljubomir Vuckovic and Deputy Prosecutor Milan Radovanovic arrested 15 September in aggressive move against corruption in judiciary. Head of Montenegrin Interior Ministry’s General Criminal Division, Slavoljub Scekic, assassinated 30 August in Podgorica. U.S. told Serbia that Ratko Mladic must be transferred to Hague, while EU threatened to delay Stabilisation and Association Agreement negotiations.

Europe & Central Asia

Serbia

Provocations by Serbian Orthodox Church led to sharp deterioration in relations with Macedonia and Montenegro. Belgrade seized aircraft from Macedonian Airlines and shut border crossing to prevent Macedonians celebrating national day at Prohor Pcinjski monastery. Army airlifted aluminium Serbian Orthodox church to site at top of Mt. Rumija holy to Orthodox, Catholics and Muslims, causing sharp Montenegrin government response. Belgrade accused of planning Serbian Autonomous Region in northern Montenegro reminiscent of similar regions created as precursors to war in Croatia and Bosnia. Hague Tribunal fugitives Milan Lukic and Dragan Zelenovic arrested in Argentina and Russia respectively. U.S. presented draft agreement to move troops across Serbia-Montenegro in case of emergency in Kosovo; signed but unlikely to be ratified by parliament. Government dropped criminal charges against son and wife of Slobodan Milosevic. Bomb thrown at home of Hungarian minority politician in Vojvodina.

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